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Weeklyanalysis

Forex Forecast: Pairs in FocusWhen starting the trading week, it is a good idea to look at the big picture of what is developing in the market as a whole and how such developments and affected by macro fundamentals and market sentiment. There are a few long-term trends beginning to reassert themselves, so it can be a profitable time to trade the markets. Big Picture 12th December 2021 Last week’s Forex market was very quiet leading up to Friday’s release of US inflation data, which was expected to be the key driver of market movements for the week. However, the data arrived almost completely in line with the consensus forecast, and the market did not react very strongly to it. This meant the week ended quietly with low price volatility. Despite the long-term bullish US dollar trend, the greenback fell a little over the course of the week, and it also fell after the US inflation data were released. The inflation data showed that annualized US inflation is now increasing at a rate of 6.8%, the highest seen since 1982. However, the pace of the increase lessened, with the recent month’s increase coming in at only 0.8% compared to 0.9% in the previous month. It might be that the slight reduction in the pace of the increase is seen as significant enough to prevent more panic over inflation. Risk sentiment improved over the week, with most stock markets higher and the benchmark US S&P 500 Index rising to approach its all-time high price. Most global stock markets rose over the week, as did the Australian and Canadian dollars which are commodity currencies and key risk barometers. The improvement in risk sentiment globally is probably mostly because there is an increasing feeling that the omicron coronavirus variant will not turn out to be as economically destructive as had been initially feared. Safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, and the US dollar are all lower. The precious metal silver fell to a new 50-day low price after falling quite strongly for several days. It bounced back a little on Friday but remains quite close to 1-year lows. Trend traders may be interested in going short on Silver. I wrote in my previous piece last week that the best trades for the week were likely to be short of AUD/USD and NZD/USD, following daily (New York closes) at new lows. Fortunately, neither of these currency pairs made a new low at the end of any day during the week, so this was sufficient to stay out of what would have been losing trades. Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment The headline takeaways from last week were: US CPI (inflation) data came in very slightly higher than had been expected and is now increasing at an annualized rate of 6.8%, the highest seen in 39 years. However, the pace of the monthly increase slowed slightly from 0.9% to 0.8%. Markets reacted little during the rest of Friday’s session. A coronavirus variant of concern, named the omicron variant, has continued to spread around the world. The variant is heavily mutated, and latest studies suggest that it has a strong capacity to evade current vaccines. However, latest studies suggest that a maximal course of vaccination will still offer strong protection against severe disease. The Reserve Banks of Australia and Canada held their respective interest rates and monetary policies steady in their monthly policy releases during the week. This probably had little impact on either currency, both of which rose firmly. The coming week is likely to see a higher amount of volatility due to the busy economic calendar, with direction likely to be determined partly by the upcoming FOMC release and partly by how dangerous the omicron variant is shown to be as more tests are performed on it. The coming week’s major scheduled economic releases will be: FOMC statement, federal funds rate, and economic projections. Monthly policy releases from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank. British and Canadian CPI (inflation) data. New Zealand GDP data. US retail sales and PPI data. German manufacturing and services PMI data. Australian employment data. Last week saw the global number of confirmed new coronavirus cases fall for the first time in seven weeks. Approximately 56% of the global population has now received at least one vaccination. Pharmaceutical industry analysts now expect a large majority of the world’s population will receive a vaccine by mid-2022. The omicron variant has been confirmed as present in fifty-seven countries. The strongest growths in new confirmed coronavirus cases overall right now are happening in Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, Jordan, South Korea, Laos, Luxembourg, Mali, Nigeria, Norway, Poland, Portugal, San Marino, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Trinidad, and the UK. Technical Analysis U.S. Dollar Index The weekly price chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index printed a bearish inside bar last week, after making its highest weekly closing price in over one year the previous week. While one weekly candlestick of a relatively small size is not enough to invalidate a long-term trend, it is notable that there is clearly strong resistance here, which has had some impact. This suggest that despite the trend, we may be due for a bearish pullback or even a reversal. However, probability suggests this strong long-term bullish trend is likely to continue, so there is no strong reason not to be prepared to a take a long USD trade over the coming week, but do not expect bullish momentum in the USD will necessarily save you. XAG/USD Silver priced in US dollars made its lowest weekly close since July 2020. However, there are a few potentially supportive inflection points below the current price down to $21.45. It is also true that the pace of the bearish decline has slowed, and that Friday was an up day. Therefore, it is far from clear that silver is going to decline now with good momentum, but there does seem to be a potential for a sharp breakdown once the price gets established below $21.45. Traders may wish to short this at the weekly open or at least once the price turns bearish over a few hours, but more cautious traders might want to wait for a daily close below $21.45 or at least $21.53. USD/TRY The Turkish lira has been falling very strongly and losing an enormous amount of its value. The pace of the decline slowed last week, but we again saw the lira reach a new record low against the US dollar and close at a record low too. There is a strong trend here against the lira, the problem for traders is that it is very difficult to exploit this as Forex brokers are asking for huge spreads and overnight fees on long positions. However, the odds remain strong in favor of further declines in the Turkish lira. S&P 500 Index After trading below its 50-day moving average just last week, the major US stock index has risen strongly. Although the price did not trade yet at a new all-time high, the index made its highest ever daily close on Friday. The weekly candlestick was solidly bullish and closed extremely close to the top of its price range. This, and the record high close, are bullish signs. The S&P 500 Index looks likely to remain a good potential buy in the current “risk off” market environment, provided we get no nasty surprises from the omicron coronavirus variant. Bottom Line I see the best opportunities in the financial markets this week as likely to be long of the S&P 500 Index and short of Silver in US Dollar terms following a daily (New York) close below $21.45.
TVC:DXY
by SmoothJB
BABA Weekly Options PlayDescription BABA remains in extended downtrend that began 27OCT20, now has rejected new supply line established 20-22OCT. Technical Indicators: Fallen back below 50D EMA Bearish MACD convergence Supply line Rejection Using A put debit spread, because profits are always limited by time. Put Debit Spread Levels on Chart SL > 178 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 11/12 165P SELL 11/12 140P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. The long call is placed ATM for higher chance of profit, The short call is placed at last known support. Earnings on 4NOV are a risk factor. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NYSE:BABAShort
by BarnardR
Eur/Usd Weekly Analysis 11/08/21Eur/Usd is going to be a bit more complex to analyze this week but in my perspective, I am not really 100% bullish or bearish I have price moving onto the trend line around 1.58 to then maybe drop a couple pips before shooting up to 1.61/62 to fill some imbalances from the higher time frame move we had last week. But then after that it gets a bit complex weekly has establish a new lower high and lower low where investors and traders will have their sl set above this area at 1.67. And as we should know a new LL or LH doesn't mean price is going to continue in that direction. This makes me a bit skeptical as on the daily as welI , I believed could've crashed last week but instead grabbed a previous Daily low and closed above leaving me wondering if we would continue lower. The 2 different colored arrows are two possibilities I see on EU this week. This week may be a bit more complex to understand but we manage risk and adapt everything will turn out in our favor. Im out gang-- love! ----------------- Go hit a follow on my parter-one of the best traders I know @AlphaNarekD
by feblesgiancarlo
Bearish Trendline Respected What About The Bullish CounterTrendGold is still technically in a downtrend overall according to the daily timeframe. It rejected off the trendline for the 4th time last week, so we may possibly break the monthly to continue to swing sell. I've created a pullback trendline underneath to wait for a bullish continuation, or a break of the BULL trendline as additional confirmation of the bearish trend. BEAR TPS: • 1760.25 • 1750.37 • 1741.66 • 1726.44 ]b]BULL TPS: • 1772.14 • 1781.97 • 1793.93 • 1800.75
FX:XAUUSD
by NikaJourney
1
Bitcoin it's repeating the bull cycleI make this elliot wave analysis as now, we end the phase #2 of the bullish elliot wave cycle, so, we're entry in the phase #3 in the Bitcoin price. So, Bitcoin will be make a large bullish movement toward the new ATH that we could to leading to $100,000 USD in few weeks. I can't to predict that Bitcoin could to leading until $500,000 USD, but I can to use the same parameters what Bitcoin do in the past as I show here. Now, I will going to analyze the others timeframe and the past years how Bitcoin made movement using BLX or Bitcoin yearly timeframe as I called it. Guys, if you found out that this idea may to support you, please share this idea with others crypto-traders to know my perspective in the market.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by harisonhbn9718
4
EOS/USD: The next altcoin to explode soonEOS it's showing us an interesting bull market that could to change your perspective if you want to make trading or hold EOS in your trading app in cryptocurrency. Now, you can to put a long position by position trading to hold this cryptocurrency like trading opportunity during weeks to months. I believe the lot potential of this cryptocurrency, it's an undervalued and cheapest altcoin that you can to buy now or starting to invest in it. EOS it's showing us strenghten during the next weeks.
BITFINEX:EOSUSDLong
by harisonhbn9718
9
BTC/USD: Weekly OverviewThis it's just my idea, but now, we have 4 weeks bearish in the Bitcoin price, I don't considered that this will be bearish, just could to forming a possible new cycle to this bull run on Bitcoin price. This it's an elliot wave cycle and we could to look that we end the past Elliot Wave Cycle since May 2020 when Bitcoin was worth around of $4,300 USD per coin and this cycle extend the Bitcoin price until near of $64,000 USD per coin on May 2021. Then, we had this correction on May 2021 when Bitcoin crash from $64k to $30k. And now, we end this Elliot Wave retracement ABC. So, right now, Bitcoin could to repeat this same pattern starting from $30,000 USD and we could to look that we could to entry in the new elliot wave cycle. So, right now, we can to be ending in the phase #2. So, if we look for far away, Bitcoin it's considered bullish by long term. But if you want to look for short term. So guys, if you like this idea, please hand up, share this information with others crypto-enthusiastic.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by harisonhbn9718
2
ADA/BTC: bullish setup!!!Cardano continue climbing in front of Bitcoin ratio. So, in Daily timeframe ADA worth 0.000055 satoshi. And the trend it's very clear, it's bullish. So, in based the USD, it's bullish too. So, my big advice it's don't make panic, don't sell your ADA, HOLD!!! Because if you hold at least 1,000 ADA= your worth in Bitcoin actual it's 0.055 BTC, but in the future could to change to 0.1 BTC easily. Now, I want to share you in long term my 4 targets in Bitcoin to get Bitcoin earns. I use a lot altcoin/Bitcoin in my investment strategy. You can view now that Cardano could to becoming one of the best cryptocurrency with huge performance. If you like this analysis, please hand up, share this information with others crypto-enthusiastic, amateur and people who don't understand it. I'm bullish on Cardano with 10,546 ADA in hold!!! And also with 10,039 XRP in hold.
Long
by harisonhbn9718
ETC/USD: Bullish butterfly PatternEthereum Classic forming a bullish butterfly pattern. This it's an Harmonic Pattern and it's bullish signal. We're in Daily timeframe and also, Ethereum Classic make support in the EMA 200. So, in medium term, Ethereum Classic could to move up toward $60.25 USD next resistance key and $78.28 USD next up 2nd resistance key. The 2nd resistance key it's my target in $78.28 USD. So, Ethereum Classic it's bullish. Now, in this screenshot, I make an analysis of Elliot Wave Cycle and we pass the Elliot Wave cycle and Elliot Wave correction. Right now, Ethereum Classic coud to forming a new Elliot Wave Cycle so similar in the past when Ethereum Classic went from $7 USD to $130 USD aprox. Then, Ethereum Classic pass for the correction toward $130 USD toward $40 USD in average. Right now, Ethereum Classic continue ascending in this model where forming like a channel, but I called it what this could to make an explosion in the price in the incoming months. So guys, what do you think of Ethereum Classic like investment or making a position trading in the market price $51 USD aprox. and put the SL in the $35 USD approx and my target toward $1,000 USD and keep this positon trading during months. This could be a extraordinary profit of over 1,800% if you keep this position during the next months. But yes, using a small average but depending the collateral what do you use for deposit your crypto assets. You can to use 25% of your 100% of your collateral and keep this posiiton to generate your favorite cryptocurrency. Guys, if you like this analysis, please hand up, share this analysis with others crypto-enthusiastic, traders and people who interesting to know this information about Ethereum Classic. So, I just entry in this long position toward $78.28 USD. This it's my target and I entry around of $51 USD and I put my SL at $40.50 USD. Now, I think that Ethreum Classic in my own opinion it's that has future, I do not going to invest in this cryptocurrency, but in the future, I may to interesting or I can to make a small leverage to invest a position trading and keep this position trading until $1,000 USD just keeping this position during months.
COINBASE:ETCUSDLong
by harisonhbn9718
Is the moment to invest in Ethereum now?According with the Ethereum Dominance, it's look strengthen and that put altcoins in bearish in front of Ethereum. For that, in the USD correlated, Ethereum it's xtremely optimistic and so bullish. For that, the Ethereum dominance it's a track that we get information about the dominance and how Etherum will take power o altcoins now!!! Now, in based in this forecast ,we formed a bullish rising wedge and into this pattern a simetric triangle. But now, I believe that Ethereum will leading to a extremely bull market This it's the weekly timeframe. and we look that Ethereum could to reach a dominance of 30% very soon. Ethereum it's make a powerful trend that will shock you I will check out the Ethereum ratios to know the situation against Cardano, XRP and Bitcoin too. It's very important to look this secret information that investor doesn't know, at least for amateurs.
CRYPTOCAP:ETH.DLong
by harisonhbn9718
BTC/USD multi time frame analysis, WILL BE UPDATED STAY TUNED !Will be Updated During the next days for possible trade opportunity Stay Tuned (BE SURE THAT FOLLOW ME TO GET NOTIFICATION) If like this and if help you with your trading Please Like, Share, Follow and comment that give me motivation to make another Market analysis and trading ideas If you have some suggestion, comment or other opinion feel free to write it in comment Wish you succesfull and consistent trading with profits! This is not an investment advice. "CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money."
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ArmaTrader97
USD/CAD multi time frame analysis, WILL BE UPDATED STAY TUNED !Will be Updated During the next days for possible trade opportunity Stay Tuned (BE SURE THAT FOLLOW ME TO GET NOTIFICATION) If like this and if help you with your trading Please Like, Share, Follow and comment that give me motivation to make another Market analysis and trading ideas If you have some suggestion, comment or other opinion feel free to write it in comment Wish you succesfull and consistent trading with profits! This is not an investment advice. "CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money."
by ArmaTrader97
2