Looking to short Boeing $BA for a potential $40 (10%) move.After a parabolic move up, then a breather, and another 10 straight weeks of aggressive gains...I am looking to short Boeing on a pull back from the $420's down to the $380 range. Currently trading at $422.
Special tips:
- I cite "Irrational Exuberance" as the reason for this short, however...
- Remember that "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".
- In other words, don't bet the family trust on it. A move over $440 can tear the face off of shorts one more time as it did in its last break higher.
Weeklychart
JD: Earnings Stock of the Day JD.com has been in a downtrend since it topped early this year. This weekly chart shows why it is no longer an ideal sell short. The stock has declined steadily, losing more than 50% of its price value and JD is now at a support level that is strong, where buyers are likely to start moving in. At this time, a sideways pattern is likely, or a bounce up today if earnings are showing growth and stronger revenues.
Brent oil at major support - short term pullback expectedTechnically: weekly 100&200 EMA + 38.2% Fib level meet at 65 dollar price support zone.
Fundamentally OPEC members set a December meeting to adjust supply, global economic slowdown fears might be exaggerated. -> short term long is my view to 70$
Forex: USDCAD, USDNOK, USDRUB to watch
EURUSD Weekly forecast, technical and fundamental may 14 -may 18At the Chart we see a intermediate waves on the Weekly chart, where the price clearly have a bullish uptrend, after a range from 2015 to 2017. the price had strong momentum from wave (0) to (3) where wave (5) have had a decrease in the momentum and ending it with a symmetric triangle, that is followed by a strong break and down movement. the price have produced a morning star candle and could be indicating a u turn of the price. Fibonacci is also matching with the price action and the wave analysis where a bullish hidden divergence have occurred in the price and the RSI. the intermediate waves with 5 swings have been completed and a correction is under construction, where wave (A) are completed and wave (B) and (C) is waiting. wave (C) is also a primary wave ((2)) where wave (5) is primary wave ((1)).
Fundamental:
In the coming week we have 5 FOMC members speaking, with Draghi speaking on wednesday.
Tuesday 15 may: German prelim GDP q/q is released, the numbers are expected to go down with 0,2% from last time at 0,6% where consensus is 0,4%. Last year the numbers where at 0,6% with the same consensus, where 2016 numbers were slightly lower from consensus that was on 0,5% where the actual numbers released was at 0,3%. therefor Y/Y is definitely lower than last years numbers same month.
Flash GDP q/q for the Euro-zone is expected to hold a steady level on 0,4%, with a change from last year from 0,5% in may. and a change of -0,2% from last quarter.
German ZEW Economic sentiment, is expected to rise from -8,2 to -8,0. The sentiment is still in minus, and therefore there is a continuing pessimism in the economy.
For the USD numbers for Core retails sales m/m is released, where the numbers are expected to be higher from last month. the consensus is 0,5% up with 0,3% from last month 0,2%. where the total sales in retail including automobiles is expected to fall from 0,6% to 0,4% m/m
The empire state manufacturing index is also expected to fall from 15,8 to 15,1 and is a sign of less spending, hiring and investments.
Wednesday 16 May: Final CPI y/y for Euro is released, the consensus is at the same level as last times actual, at 1,2% where last year's numbers for the same month where at 1.9% therefore a weakness in the inflation numbers. ECB President Draghi speaks the same day.
Building permits for USD is also due the day, the numbers have a consensus of 1,35m, the numbers are expected as last release. Last years numbers from May show 1,23m. Crude oil inventories will also affect the currency pair where the pull out of the iran nuclear deal could make the countries buying iranian oil seek other importers. i therefore expect a shortage in the inventory
Thursday 17 May: Philly fed manufacturing index have a consensus of 21,1 from last month where the numbers where 23,2. unemployment claims is also expected to rise from 211k to 219k.
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Weekly cup and handleTaking a look at restoration warehouse on the weekly charts. Looks to be a nice cup and handle forming. Last year price tested a breakout over $110, but could not sustain a close over and since has pulled back.
As of late price has traded nicely in the smaller channel I have drawn with trend lines. Looks to be flagging and presenting the handle for the cup.4 weeks ago we saw a nice push up which has set up an inside bar play as well. Price has since traded inside that weeks range for the last 3 weeks.
I am looking to get long between $80-$74 dollar price range. I will most likely layer my position in that range with a calculated stop of 1% total risk of my portfolio. If I do not get an opportunity to get the desired fills I will take a half position on the breakout of the trend lines while adding the last half on a breakout of $110. I want to be patient and either get the fill at value or play the breakout. what I do not want to do is rush and get a fill now to only have price go lower and possibly stop out before ever getting to a desired location.
If price does come to this range it will be coming to test the lower TL of the larger channel running from mid 2016. If price is to bounce it should provide at least a decent short term return.
Ideally I would be looking to hold this long term as we are playing the weekly chart and the completion of the cup and handle should bring solid long term gains. Once my position is full I will be taking profits at calculated targets and employing a wide trailing stop. If this idea comes to fruition I will update with position ave, targets, and strategy for my stop. Thank you all for viewing.
No time to HODLAll the weekly chart indicators are looking toward a downward trend.
I pulled out of BTC ages ago, waiting to come back in could take a while. I'll have to pop in and out to make smaller gains. This is no time to hodl.
Caveat: I am not a professional trader or adviser. Do your own research before making any trade. Never trade more than you can afford to loose.
Bull Bear fight continuesA tad annoyed I missed the trend line from 2017 on previous posts.
Black line: move toward 11700
Followed by either red or pink option:
Red line: breakout around 11700, then bounce off resistance at 14000
Pink line: Hits resistance at 11700 then bounces off support around 9000, followed by action similar to red line.
Note: The two green trend RSI S&R lines come from the weekly RSI chart:
Overall: Bulls and bears are still fighting it out.
Weekly Technical Chart- GBPUSDThe British pound initially fell during the week but found enough support at the 1.2850 level to turn around and form a hammer. I believe that this market is going to continue to go higher, and a break above the 1.3050 level is that signal. At that point, I believe the market can go looking towards retest again 1.2850 /1.2800 and then we can see rally towards 1.31/1.32, The British pound has shown a significant resurgence during the week, and I think it looks good overall. However, if we were to break down below the 1.2850 level, that would be a negative sign.
EUR/JPY - Shot - WeeklyHello TradingView Community,
I would like to share with you a trade that looks like it could have a very good return. As we can see the pair has been in decline since April of last year. We see that it has already closed below the 23.6% Fibo retrenchment level, but it has also broken a support level @115.463. This level was created during the consolidation period from the end of June until the beginning of November of 2016 before it broke out to the 38.2% Fibo level. I have already entered the trade and look to stay short until the pair reaches another hard support level @112.584. Now if it breaks this level as well, you could look to short it even longer, possibly until it hits the 0 Fibo level @ 109.545, however I would expect a little pullback in the short term before that happens. Also, not shown on this chart is the pair has broken through the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud which has not happened since October of 2015. That break resulted in the pair moving from 133.636 to as low as 109.307.. That is MASSIVE. For anyone using a standard lot size of 1, you could have made 5 digests+ in the span of 8 months. Good Luck to all of you!
USD/CZK shows potential downtrend.Good morning ladies and gentlemen and whoever doesn't fit into two genders anymore.
Currently USD/CZK is showing potential downtrend. I've identified this by checking the W and D chart.
W chart shows a sideways momentum whereas the D chart shows a distinctive downtrend. I have also seen a double top form which could be beneficial for the analysis.
If price breaks 1st support line, then I will enter a trade on the 2nd support line.
S/L: 25.08413
Entry (sell): 24.89251
T/P: 23.66749
Hope people find this beneficial and please give me some feedback or anything that will benefit the analysis.
Anyways, take care and trade safely and risk free (Y) :)
LLY Eli Lilly: Where can we buy?This stock has been in a correction for about a year now and it looks like it is not done yet. Looking to the price history on the left we can see that we could soon hit strong support starting from $60.00 which is basically the top of a $48-60 price channel. So I would be looking to buy anywhere below $60 if we re-enter that channel (yellow box). I don't expect price to just move through this channel, just like we cannot just break through a herd of cows crossing the street while driving. In addition, if we copy the move from the swing highs to swing lows from 2015-2016 we can see that an equal move would end right around $60 as well, providing a further reason for entry.
AUD/USD Long Term PerspectiveFX:AUDUSD
The bulls are starting to wake up!
BUT they still need more momentum to change the overall trend of this pair.
On the daily chart, price broke above the 200 Simple Moving Average and bounced of it after the retest by printing higher lows. Currently it is trading inside this triangle and the market is eagerly waiting for a breakout to either side. If price breaks to the upside, the bulls will take the price to retest the the 2015 Highs(0.8200's) which is a very important pivot point. On the other hand, if the bears win the battle, they will gradually take the price lower to retry and break through the 0.7000 psychological pivot point.
Check out my blog for more long-term trading analyses: legendarytrades.wordpress.com
Let's Take Friday's Market Drop Into Perspective...Yes. The Dow dropped about 400 points and the S&P 500 dropped about 55 points on Friday. As bad as it sounds and feels, let's take Fridays market drop into perspective.
Since 2012, the SPY was about 125... Since July 2016, the SPY has been above 212. If you really think about this, the market action that took place on Friday was a drop in the proverbial bucket. The SPY went down about 5 points on Friday....
212 ish - See the horizontal gray line
For quite a while, the 212 level in the SPY was resistance. In July, the SPY got above the 212 level. Remember that resistance often becomes support. So that means "there is a chance" the SPY is just coming back to 212 to bounce and continue higher :) Yes. I have been called an optimist in the past...
2016 Uptrend Line - See the upward sloping green line
The beginning of this line is back in February of 2016 when the SPY was about 180 ish. No one knew this line would exist back in February. It wasn't until the end of June that we got the second bottom, around 198 ish, that allowed anyone to see this line take shape. Let me make a quick point here. Please notice that the February bottom occurred very close to the "181.0 ish" line that was drawn on this chart because it was a level that was resistance and became support. The late June bottom also occurred very close to the "198.50 ish" line that was also a level that was resistance and became support.
With all that said, it is possible the SPY will come back to this green uptrend line before it is ready to turn back higher. If that is what will happen, you can expect to see 209 ish on the SPY. That would be another drop of about the same magnitude as we saw on Friday. It may not happen in one day again but the SPY could get down there. If you are with me in my line of thinking, please notice there is a resistance line that became support in that area. It is labeled "208 ish" on the chart.
Below the Horizontal 212 ish line & Below the 2016 Uptrend Line
Let's just say the SPY gets below these two areas and just keeps dropping. You can continue to look at past levels of resistance that became support. Those levels may give you an idea where the market could turn around.
Don't panic. Take each day as it comes. Learn to gauge the market's future potential on the market's past. Horizontal or sloping is your choice.
There are many opportunities being created for long only investors. The drop that is creating long opportunities is in itself an opportunity for those willing to short.