EURUSD After ECB Holds, Italy to Come Back into Focus for EuroTechnical Overview:
Weekly Pivot: 1.1581
Weekly Resistance: 1.1631 - 1.1663 - 1.1713 - 1.1765 - 1.1790
Weekly Support: 1.1531 - 1.1501 - 1.1449 - 1.1420 - 1.1369
Technical Indicators:
MACD: MacD starting for more down side moment & show volume for seller side.
RSI: The indicator moving below 50 level, means more downward movement.
Moving Avg: SMA55 (1.1612) & SMA200 (1.1569) strong support for EURUSD.
Fundamental:
The most important news for EURUSD are following:
>> The European Central Bank continues to aim for ending its QE program in December, then raising rates by the end of “summer 2019”, citing “receding” uncertainty around its inflation outlook.
>> Any goodwill provided by the ECB’s confidence in its policy path was quickly erased by Friday as concerns over the Italian government’s upcoming budget resurfaced.
Price action at the end of the week was revealing in a number of ways. The European Central Bank is sticking to its preset policy course as uncertainty around its inflation forecasts is receding, and that’s certainly good news for the Euro given the swirling concern about potential contagion from the Turkish Lira meltdown.
But with Italy back in the news, any goodwill injected into the Euro from the recent policy decision was quickly neutralized. Mario Nava, the head Italian stock market regulator, abruptly resigned at the end of last week amid mounting pressure from the governing Five Star Movement and Northern League citing an “issue that is only political.”
As a standalone development, the resignation is meaningless; however, in context of a pattern of increasingly harsh anti-EU and anti-Euro rhetoric, market participants pushed up Italian bond yields and reined the Euro back in from its post-ECB meeting highs. Now, attention is on the upcoming Italian government budget and whether or not a showdown with Brussels is a fait accompli – particularly if technocrat Giovanni Tria, the Minister of Economy and Finances, is similarly pressured out of his job.
Beyond rising concerns over Italy effectively neutralizing dropping concerns over the ECB’s inflation outlook, the economic calendar should only impact the Euro in a minor fashion.
Next Week, Tuesday & Wednesday ECB President Draghi Speech is very important for EURO future.
Thanks
YoCryptoManic
