Weeklyforecast
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 28th February 2022EURUSD plunged as safe haven demand spiked amid Russia-Ukraine war.
The market found support as it fell to an 18-month low and was able to recovered over half the losses.
However, the trend is clearly downwards and the current fundamentals are clearly bearish, and the price just gapped down strongly at the market opening for the week.
This week, we will continue to look for selling opportunities, awaiting further upside pullback to cover the gap first.
EURCAD Analysis I Correction and More Potential DeclineWelcome back! Here's an analysis of this pair!
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EURCAD Analysis Welcome back! Here's an analysis of this pair!
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NZDUSD Weekly Forecast Welcome back! Here's an analysis of this pair!
**NZDUSD - listen to video analysis.
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USDJPY Analysis Welcome back! Here's an analysis of this pair!
**USDJPY - listen to video analysis.
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Gold Weekly Forecast: Gold is heading to uncertainty. The strengthening of the US dollar and the narrowing of the yield differential between US T-bonds have fueled the rise of XAU/USD. Furthermore, in response to Jerome Powell's comments on Friday regarding high inflation, the gold price rose to its highest level since early September at $1 815.50 before falling again shortly after.
Before this weekend's holiday festivities and tomorrow's FOMC Chairmen Powell addressed Friday at a Bank for International Settlements seminar. "Inflation will linger longer than predicted," he said, adding, "the tools available." However, with 2022 so close, there seemed to be less fear about an eventual fall down to earth.
What happened last week?
The market's defeatist attitude was exacerbated by China's weak growth figures, which boosted the dollar.
POSITIVE EARNINGS STATISTICS LIFTED large US banks' equities on Monday, helping the major Wall Street indexes gain traction. This allowed risk flows into financial markets to restrict XAU/USD losses once more, as USD weakness drove them up (and rising Treasury bond yields).
This trend persisted on Tuesday, with no significant macroeconomic reports supporting commodities like gold mining shares.
The S&P 500 Index closed at an all-time high this week, as gold rose to new weekly highs. On Thursday morning, initial unemployment claims fell below 290K for the first time since March 2020, adding to the evidence that things are looking up in the West.
With the recent interest rate hikes by the Fed in December, they have increased the opportunity to return capital through traditional lending markets while still keeping rates low enough that people won't notice much impact if any.
What About The Next week?
Investors stay on the sidelines ahead of major events, so the market is unlikely to react substantially. What will include these figures in a US economic docket on Tuesday, but they could impact the future because of how soon they come out.
While you may have had a lot going on in your brain, including fear or excitement, the tone of your output should stay nice.
We will get our first estimate of third-quarter GDP growth from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Given that the lackluster September Nonfarm Payrolls data did not change the Fed's tapering plans. We could see another leg upward in T-bond yields in the coming weeks.
A breach above 1.75 percent for the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield would open the door to new prospects for dollar strength. If you've been struggling financially because your income isn't quite enough longer, these figures may be able to help you get back on track.
On the one hand, if the Federal Reserve delays its planned reduction in asset purchases to cool down the markets, it might generate significant investor issues.
Anything might happen in the market next week, given how unpredictable it currently is. Several pieces of news will be released that could have an impact on the direction stocks take.
Facebook's earnings report will be released on Wednesday (in which they forecast $5 billion in revenue). Amazon's quarterly results after trading hours on Thursday evening EST/Wednesday afternoon PST. They are expecting to generate more than $55 billion this time around.
Still, it depends on whether there was any disruption from last month when one of its distribution centers experienced an overflow during Prime Day, which caused some shipments to be delayed.
XAU/USD Technical Analysis
Technically market is on an uptrend in a short time frame. But along bearish candle may send the gold lower, as I have seen many times before.
Last Friday, Powell didn't send any strong message; instead, he was a bit dovish. Still, gold dropped from the rising trend line. As two weeks back, average earnings rose, and next week some big tech company will release their earnings report. So it is supposed to have good earnings reports.
So, fundamentally there is a chance that gold may drop again. from the present rate, $1780/1775 will play as a strong support zone. Breaking below $1775 gold may test the $1760/1763 price zone.
Breaking below $1760, testing the $1745/1750 price zone won't be hard. Absolutely $1745/1750 will act as solid support. And we have seen some upward correction nearly $1780 price zone again from $1745/1750.
Finally, if we see gold price breaks below $1745, we will set our last target at the $1720/1725 price zone.
On the other hand, $1808 is the immediate resistance from the present rate, and the swing area is identified at the $1715 price level. So, we may go for but if the gold price breaks above the $1715 price zone. $1730/1735 has been acting as an acritical resistance for a long time.
So, if we buy above the $1715 price zone, we must close it to nearly the $1730 price zone. If gold price can break above #1735 price, we must think for a long term buy at least almost $1900 price zone.
Gold: Weekly Forecast 13th February 2022Gold rallied last week especially on the last trading day which caused a breakout of the symmetrical triangle.
As inflation continues to rise and strengthening the market sentiment of more and bigger rate hikes, the dollar is strengthening yet the gold is even stronger.
Since the market has broken out of a 14-month symmetrical triangle, bulls are inevitably going to rise in the coming weeks.
This week, we will focus on buying the pullback, expecting a pullback towards 1850.
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 13th February 2022EURUSD was going sideways last week until the dollar started to strengthened again on high CPI figures that prompts for a Fed rate hike.
The supply level at 1.1480 has caused a strong rejection and more bears are expected in the coming week.
This week, we can switch to selling the upwards pullback at around 1.1380, aiming for 1.1280 and followed by 1.1230.
WTI: Weekly Forecast 6th February 2022WTI has climbed for the 7th week and is now trading right at the top of a 15-month rising channel.
This could mean the price has topped out but there's no sign of reversal just yet.
Therefore, we will continue to follow the trend and look for buying opportunity as price pulls back towards 89.5.
However, if the price is able to reach the bottom of the current rising channel at around 87.9, a reversal is likely to happen in the coming weeks.
Gold: Weekly Forecast 6th February 2022Gold gained a little last week as it recovered strongly from a drop from the supply level at 1815.
The market continued to find support at a rising trendline and is most likely to climb further before another short-term sell off.
This week, we will look for buying opportunities, expecting the price to reach 1829 supply level.
GBPUSD: Weekly Forecast 6th February 2022GBPUSD made a strong weekly gain but gave up a portion of it at the end of the week.
The drop caused a break in the upside momentum and could cause the market to consolidate first.
This week, we will wait for the price to climb a little higher first and look for selling opportunities around 1.3570.
We will also be looking for a buying opportunity at 1.3500 when price pulls back further.
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 6th February 2022EURUSD made a strong V-shaped recovery throughout the week, the biggest weekly gain in almost 2 years.
The move also caused a break-above of a 8-month falling trendline, making a stronger case for more upside in the coming weeks.
This week, we expect more correction at the beginning and will be looking for buying opportunities around 1.1380.
XAU/USD UpdateHello, Traders as you can see from from my previous post
I called Gold to 1780.
You can see we had a great reaction.
Could see price drop to 1772
Which there is a orderblock at.
You can see the sell side imbalance that price has left from dropping at 1850.
In the future we will fill that area.
Im bullish on Gold this week.
NZDCAD Rejecting Support AreaWelcome back! Here's an analysis of this pair!
COMMENT BELOW and let us know your thoughts or questions!
**It has reached a previous weekly level last visited May 2020 and rejecting. It appears the weekly bearish impulse has completed, and a long correction will begin from the current support.
Do you agree? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!
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Gold: Weekly Forecast 23rd January 2022Gold shot through the supply level at 1830 but face resistance at the top of a symmetrical triangle.
The recent bullish trend that has lasted for just over a month could be an upward consolidation of the previous bearish wave.
This week, we would preferably wait for the price to climb a little higher and look for a selling opportunity.
GBPUSD: Weekly Forecast 23rd January 2022GBPUSD seemed to have resumed a bearish trend as the demand level at 1.36 failed to hold.
This is also after a break below of a rising trendline while the market is still trending upwards strongly.
This week, we will change our focus to sell the pullback, awaiting a pullback towards 1.36 again.
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 23rd January 2022EURUSD pulled back deeper than expected but still found support at the bottom of a rising channel.
While the overall trend is clearly bearish, the 2 months bullish trend still holds and we could expect a stronger rebound from the current demand level towards 1.14.
This week, we will look to buy at the beginning while the price is still at the bottom.
We may attempt to sell again when it reaches the supply level at 1.14 as this may also develop into another bearish wave.
Gold weekly analysis: The USD in under pressureThe dollar has posted its worst weekly performance in five months as it closes out the week.
China's gross domestic product (GDP) is higher than expected is at the top of all of the other happenings this week.
We will be keeping an eye on various data points throughout the week.
It was the largest weekly loss in the general index of the US dollar since August of last year when it closed the trading session on Friday, the 14th of January, at levels of 95.14, after testing its lowest level in two months at 94.60 midweek, as the US dollar ignored all the news that supports the speed with which the US Federal Reserve is tightening policy. Because of his monetary policy, which includes raising US interest rates more quickly during the current year and raising expectations that what will raise interest rates four times during the current year rather than three times as previously expected, interest rates are expected to be submitted four times during the current year.
At the beginning of the week, statements by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced these expectations, as Powell stated in his testimony before Congress that the US Federal Reserve must raise interest rates quickly to counteract the effects of accelerating inflation.
According to the most recent figures, the consumer price index in the United States of America increased at an annual rate of 7 percent in December, compared to 6.8 percent in the previous reading, in line with expectations for the fastest rate of inflation growth in 40 years. In November, the consumer price index increased at an annual rate of 6.8 percent, compared to 6.8 percent in the previous reading.
The dollar did not benefit in any way from all of this, and despite the positive news that dominated most of last week's sessions for the US dollar, the dollar continued to decline sharply. However, I believe this can be explained by the beginning of the year and the construction of new centers, especially given the high expectations of pricing an opportunity greater than 90 percent. Moreover, according to the FedWatch CME Group tool, what will raise the interest rate in March, and it will be presented a total of four times during the current calendar year, starting in March.
One of the most recent data released last week was the December retail sales data from the United States, which came in below expectations and disappointed as sales fell by 1.9 percent in December, raising concerns about the economy and rising inflationary pressures on consumers spending.
Aas fundamentally the USD is under pressure, so the gold still has chances to go upside in the coming days. Check out the H4 chart to better understand.
What is it that the markets are looking forward to this week?
Several important economic reports are expected to be released during the sessions of the current week, and the markets are anticipating them. We began the day with data from China's growth and retail sales, which were released during the Asian session, as well as minutes from the Central Bank of Japan's meeting, inflation data from Canada and the United Kingdom, labor market data from Australia and the United Kingdom, and manufacturing data from the United States of America.
Data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics in the Asian session today, Monday, showed that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 4 percent in the fourth and last quarter of 2021, exceeding expectations of growth of approximately 3.7 percent.
On the other hand, retail sales fell short of expectations, with annual sales growth slowing to 1.7 percent, down from 3.9 percent in November and expectations of 3.8 percent in December.
On the other hand, industrial production increased by approximately 4.3 percent in December, compared to a growth of 3.8 percent in November, exceeding expectations of a gain of 3.7 percent, while the rate of investment in fixed assets increased by approximately 4.9 percent.
The Bank of Japan is featured prominently on the front page.
The Bank of Japan is expected to announce its monetary policy tomorrow, Tuesday, during the Asian session, with expectations indicating that the Bank of Japan will maintain its monetary policy and interest rates at -0.10 percent.
The sharp rise in the value of the Japanese yen over the past week may explain why the Bank of Japan has hinted that it may impose strict measures shortly, particularly in light of the rise in inflation in Japan, which is in line with the global trend.
On the other hand, Japanese bond yields saw significant increases last week, with the 10-year bond yield reaching its highest level in more than a year on concerns that the Bank of Japan will tighten monetary policy shortly.
We will keep an eye on various data points throughout the week.
Today, Monday will be a trading holiday in the United States observant of Martin Luther King Day. At the same time, manufacturing sales and the Bank of Canada survey of business outlook will be released from Canada in the late afternoon and evening.
During the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the Bank of Japan will announce its monetary policy, while during the European trading session, we will be looking at data from the British labor market, the ZEW index from Germany, and the Eurozone, and during the American trading session, we will be looking at the Empire Estate manufacturing index from the United States of America.
Thursday's economic calendar includes inflation data from the United Kingdom in the European period and Canada in the American session and statements from Bank of England governor Mark Carney at the end of the American session. On Wednesday, inflation data will be released in European and American sessions.
What will monitor Thursday's labor market data from Australia (unemployment rate and change in employment) in the Asian session? At the same time, the European region will release the final inflation reading in the European period - in the American session, the Philadelphia manufacturing index, weekly unemployment benefits, and home sales will be removed, among other things.
The final session of the week is on Friday. The Bank of Japan meeting minutes will be released during the Asian session, and we will be keeping an eye on retail sales in the United Kingdom and Canada during the European and American sessions, respectively.
Nasdaq: Weekly Forecast 16th January 2022Nasdaq is no doubt in a bull market even though it has ranged for the past 2 months and seems to be breaking lower.
However, it has repeatedly create a new wave of rally every times it reaches the black MA, rebounded off, then retest again before it really takes off.
As of now, the market has completed a retest and we are seeing a rebound again which may very well be the beginning of yet another rally to a new high.
This week, we will focus on buying, likely to buy at the beginning as we are expecting little to no retracement before it reaches 16300.
WTI: Weekly Forecast 18th July 2021WTI continued to rally very strongly and has finally fully recovered from a previous dip of over 20 dollars.
There is no doubt in the demand of oil and prices are going to climb even higher going forward.
The market is now trading at the upper side of a major rising channel has shown nothing but bulls.
This week, we will patiently wait for another pullback and continue to buy, preferably at 80.
Gold: Weekly Forecast 16th January 2022Gold rebounded off well from a rising trendline, found resistance at 1829 but stayed closed to it.
The fact that the market is constantly rejected at 1829 may cause a deeper pullback towards the downside before it garner stronger buyers.
A minor rising trendline was also broken below after multiple rejection at the current high.
This week, we will focus on selling at the beginning, looking for a better price to sell at 1823.
Later on and should the price comes down, we will look for support at the demand level 1797 to see if there's an opportunity to buy again.