EURUSD Strong Bearish Momentum but LIMITEDIt was just as forecast last week that EURUSD continued to drop further.
While the bearish momentum seems strong (and definitely sellable in the short-term), it will face very strong demand in this coming week.
The first thing we should always bear in mind is that EURUSD already has a strong reversal signal since it broke above a 12-year falling trendline (as seen in the monthly timeframe).
There's also a successful retest of the 12-month falling trendline before EURUSD continued to climb.
Other than that, we can see strong confluence at the 200ma on this chart with a strong demand zone and indicator an overbought market.
Therefore, we can continue to sell int he smaller timeframe but exit as soon as a wave of trend is completed.
Otherwise, wait patiently for signs of reversal as it reaches 1.18 region to long EURUSD while an ABC correction is completed.
Weeklyforecast
EURUSD: Major Correction ContinuesSince EURUSD has ended the final Elliott wave, it has been moving sideways simply because it's in the process of a major correction.
By now, it seems clear that an ABC correction is in the process and we are probably in the BC section since the price has broken below a rising channel which consists of 2 bullish waves.
This week, we will wait for an upward pullback towards 1.2120 -1.2150 to sell, targeting 1.89 and beyond.
Dollar Remains StrongerAbout 2 months have passed since the dollar reaches the lowest at 89.2.
Since then, we have seen the dollar making a significant rebound and the recent downtrend was breakaway after last Friday's strong bull.
In fact, the dollar hasn't pulled back enough for another wave of bear strong enough to take over the market trend again.
We expect the dollar to continue its uptrend for the next 2-3 weeks until it reaches 92.
If the dollar pulls back from the recent rebound at first, look for a buying opportunity at 90.5 - 90.2.
GBPUSD: Approaching Strong SupportGBPUSD is about to face very strong support at the 1.39 demand zone.
This is strong support made up of the middle band, the bottom of a rising channel, and a rising trendline of the KD indicator.
We expect some significant rebound to occur as it pierce deeper into the demand zone at about 1.3850.
However, the plunge from last week was caused by strong rejection from a 5.5-year resistance level and the KD indicator is showing an overbought sign.
Therefore, we can also expect more selling pressure as it climbs back to about 1.4070.
If continuous support or a fakeout is seen at the demand zone after a retest, we can expect GBPUSD to resume an upward trend and eventually break higher.
Otherwise, if the demand zone fails to hold and the price closed below 1.38, we can start to look for a selling opportunity towards the demand zone at 1.33.
SPX's weekly update. Last week of February 20211/ No auto-candle found, still MW in control
2/P/E 38.42 and rising, rare seen with our a crash
3/ Dividend Yield 1.54 VS. US10Y 1.36 !!!
4/ Daily Deviation 14% = 64 Single Pullback
5/ Weekly Deviation 33.5% = 76 Single Pullback
6/PC, we've had lower # 2009/2010/2007 .
7/ Vix still in our study's Green zone.
8/VWAP ,no man's land.
9/ Stock above MAs, nothing noticeable.
10/GEX's reading +1.000.000 No man's land
11/ DIX 41 %, No man's land
EURUSD Stands Above the Middle BandEURUSD went down and made a complete comeback in the last 2 trading days.
The price managed to close above the middle of the Bollinger band which breath life to the bull.
This week, we expect EURUSD to either range or climb further into the supply zone at 1.2250.
If the price pulls back at first, we can expect a pullback towards 1.2090 to buy again.
Dollar Continues with Lower High/LowThe dollar has ended last week with another weekly lower high and lower low, showing that selling pressure is still building up.
We expect further downside and a test of the demand zone at 90, and then towards the bottom of the range.
If the price pulls back earlier in the coming week, we can expect a pullback towards 90.6 - 90.8 minor supply zone to sell again.
Otherwise, If the price breaks above 90.8, we could expect a further pullback towards 91.4.
XAUUSD - Price ForecastHello everyone,
Gold is progressing along in line with the previous idea illustrated (see link).
We saw the 1820 price level get flipped into resistance. As expected, this provided the platform for a further move to the downside to test the 1765 swing low which was taken out earlier this morning.
There is a possibility that we see a move up towards the 1800-1820 level today before market close but I think it is more probable that bears will successfully keep the price around current levels for the weekly close.
I'm looking for bearish continuation into next week with a lower low within the 1670-1720 zone now very much in sight. As mentioned previously, this is also where I think we could see the Wave 4 correction completing.
Who's Elliott?
The primary wave count is still the same, no changes on that front. Please see the linked ideas below for the wave count.
Once again, staying aware of some of the possibilities. Let’s see how it plays out today and into the forthcoming week.
Follow for further updates. Your 'likes' are much appreciated and your comments are most welcomed.
Thank you for taking the time. Trade Safe!
Beyond Edge
Disclaimer
This is not trading advice. All content/ information shared in this idea is purely educational in nature and is expected to be used for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets.
You should do your own research and analysis before making any investment decisions. Do not trade or speculate based on the information provided in this idea.
Trust your own analysis.
Beyond Edge
EURUSD Finds Support and Trades HigherEURUSD had a significant rebound last week after finding support at a 9-month rising trendline as well as the resistance turned support level 1.2030.
It was also seen rebounding off from the mid-Bollinger band and has been trading at the higher band for the past 9 months too.
EURUSD currently faces some resistance at 1.2140 but the rejection was recovered very soon last Friday, showing that buyers continue to emerge whenever the price dip.
This week, we could expect EURUSD to continue climbing but may face a second rejection at 1.2140 before a stronger upside movement.
If the price pulls back again, look to buy again at 1.2050 demand zone.
Otherwise, EURUSD is expected to climb and reach the supply zone at 1.2250 region.
Dollar Continues to Trade at the Lower BandThe dollar fell last week after rejected from the middle band in the weekly timeframe.
At the same time, the dollar has also broken below a rising trendline and a rebound was rejected again just before the market close last Friday.
The dollar continues to show weakness but do expect a ranging market before any significant downside.
If the price continues to stay supported at 90.3, we could expect a stronger rebound towards the supply zone at 91, then we will have a better price to continue selling the dollar.
Otherwise, the dollar is expected to continue to trade lower and test the demand zone at 90.
Once the price breaks below 90, the dollar will be considered oversold and buyback will be expected.
EURUSD may Begin RangingEURUSD fell further as expected last week but found strong support and rebounded off from 1.195 demand zone.
However, we also saw a break below of a 9-month rising trendline in the daily time frame which could cause further downside in the future, but yet so in the weekly time frame.
The direction of the market seems quite unclear and what's most likely to happen is that market will range.
Based on the strong rebound last Friday as well as the completion of 2 bearish trends, EURUSD could climb further this week and retest the supply zone at 1.22.
Otherwise, the price might just resume falling once it touches the current falling trendline and retest the demand zone at 1.195.
Has Dollar Found Range Top?The dollar climbed last week just as expected as it formed an inverse head and shoulder after the completion of the 5th Elliott wave.
However, the dollar faced strong selling pressure just before reaching key support turned resistance level at 91.8 and shaved off entire gains the day before.
Looking back into January 2018 where the dollar also fell to the same low, it is very likely that the rebound might have reached the top of a ranging market.
Therefore, this week we expect the strong selling pressure from last Friday to continue this week, first testing support at the rising trendline then finally the support at Fibo 61.8.
Otherwise, it could also climb again and retest the resistance at 91.8 before reversing the short-term bull again.
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EURUSD About to End ConsolidationLast week, EURUSD has undergone a ranging market as it continued to trade within a symmetrical triangle.
It is also noted that the consolidation came after a bearish trend where we saw the price coming off from a 33-month high.
We also noted that the price has been constantly resisted below the 200 and 60 MAs, and a harmonic pattern was formed at the end of the month in the H4 chart.
And since we expect the dollar to turn bullish in the coming month, we also expect the EURUSD to start forming a bearish trend after a full month of ranging market.
We can start to sell EURUSD at the start of the week, betting on a strong resistance at the top of the symmetrical triangle and a bearish harmonic, expecting the price to reach and retest the demand zone at 1.2060.
If EURUSD manages to reach 1.2060 and continue to trade lower from then on, we are expecting a stronger bearish trend towards 1.19 by the end of Febraury.
Dollar Continues to Find SupportThe dollar has ended January with a relatively small bullish candle, showing signs of support and an end to a 2-month falling trend.
In the month of January, the dollar started the month with a slightly bearish tone, bringing the currency to a 33-month low.
It then started to reverse and rebounded strongly until it faced strong resistance at strong supply 90.8.
However, the reversal was short-lived and it quickly found support and gain traction upwards, making another attempt to break above the supply zone at 90.8.
That didn't work out as the price was resisted again but somehow manage to close somewhere just below the resistance.
In the end, January left us with an inverse head and shoulder in the daily timeframe, and a sign of reversal, or rather a pause, in the monthly timeframe.
Since that's the case, and since last week's Fed did not show any sign of easing monetary policies any further in spite of a dovish ECB in the same week, we think the dollar is ready for a bullish February.
We will look for buying opportunity if the price stays above 90 and until it reaches 91.8.