Dollar Falls Slowly But SteadilyThe dollar continued to fall last week and reached a 1-month support level at 95.8.
It rebounded at first but gains were wiped out in the very next candle, showing a lack of buyers at the support.
The dollar is currently establishing a bearish trend within an H4 falling channel, both highs and lows are continuing to form lower, and thus a clear-cut bearish market.
This week, we shall continue to look for a selling opportunity.
1) If the dollar rebounded off from the current support, wait for the price to reach resistance zone 96.2 - 97.35, as well as the top of the H4 falling channel, and look to sell.
2) If the dollar breaks below the current support, simply wait for a pullback towards the breakout level to sell again.
Look out for the near 2-year support level which coincides with a W1 rising trendline.
Weeklyforecast
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USDCAD Head and ShouldersUSDCAD has been moving sideways after a major downtrend breaking out of a descending triangle a couple of weeks ago.
After this week, we can see that price has formed somewhat of a head and shoulders pattern, with current price forming the last shoulder.
Additionally, the last shoulder is currently forming on a strong resistance point from a falling trendline.
Should this resistance hold, we could look to sell USDCAD back it's previous low price.
EURUSD Impending Break OutEURUSD's movement this week has been definitely leaning more towards ranging, with a slight bullish bias.
As we can observe from price movement, higher lows have been forming, however price is still being rejected from the previous high.
On the daily timeframe , we can definitely see a consolidation pattern being formed, nearing its end soon.
Thus we can expect a breakout of the pattern sometime this week.
On the H4 timeframe, a rising channel could be seen, with price being supported at the bottom of the channel right now.
This week, we could look to buy EURUSD at current price, or we could also wait for a breakout of the pattern before buying on retracement for more confirmation.
USDCAD Start of New Downtrend?USDCAD has completed 2 waves of retracement and got resisted at the top of a falling trendline early this week before starting a downtrend.
Price has also broken a rising trendline indicating that there could be room for more downside.
We could look to continue selling USDCAD this week should there be a small retracement, before next support zone seen at 1.3435 - 1.3380.
Weekly Analysis AXY,JXY,EXY,BXY,CXYThis is the weekly analysis for the week commencing 28.06.2020
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NOTE:Truths
-Traders will do the same thing over and over again.
-In trading, no one to blame and no one to question what price did.
-Price can break any low/High because anything can happen.
If you fully allign your thinking in line with the truth about the market then you will win.
USDCAD End of Retracement?USDCAD has been continuing its retracement after finding support early this week.
However, price is soon reaching a supply zone, which coincides with the 68.2% fibo level. Should price be resisted here, it would be a good opportunity to short USDCAD again. If price were to break above this zone, next level of resistance could be seen at previous major consolidation, around 1.3935 - 1.3880.
USDCAD Weekly Forecast 29 June - 3 July.USDCAD has been continuing its uptrend after finding support early this week.
However, price is soon reaching a supply zone. Should price be resisted here, it would be a good opportunity to short USDCAD again. If price were to break above this zone, next level of resistance could be seen at previous major consolidation, around 1.3935 - 1.3880.
Gold has More Room on the UpsideWay to Gold! The gold has once again broken new high and reached 1779, a level not seen in more than 8 years.
As high as gold already was, the demand for safe-haven asset continued to rise through the pandemic.
There are so many reasons - the unprecedented printing of money (i.e. bond purchases), the super low-interest rates which will last for a couple of years, and of course the uncertainty of the pandemic and the recent surge in COVID cases in the US.
Historically speaking, the most recent financial epidemic in 2008 has clearly shown us just how much can gold climb while the economy is trying to recover from recessions and depressions.
So, just in case if you're thinking that the gold is over-valued, it's probably more like 'undervalued'.
The break of a new historical high could very well be the beginning of the rise of gold price.
However, it's likely inevitable that strong resistance will be faced the nearer price gets to the historical high of 1920, and before that, the near 9-month supply zone just right ahead.
As of now, gold should have a smooth journey ahead to climb further, at least not before it reaches 1810.
GBPUSD Rising Channel BrokenGBPUSD has failed to continue its uptrend as it has broken multiple support levels, and broken a rising channel this week.
With how bearish the closing candle was on friday, we are expecting further downside for GBPUSD this week.
Await a pullback to sell GBPUSD again at a better price, with the next immediate support being seen at 1.2210 - 1.2285.
EURUSD Deeper Retracement?EURUSD has begun a downtrend after peaking out near previous high this week.
However, with such a strong uptrend, a large retracement would be expected as well.
This week, should price break below the current demand zone , it would confirm further downside.
Thus we could await a pull back before selling EURUSD again to next level of support.
Dollar May Climb Further but Not for LongThis month will be critical for the dollar as it will show whether the price will stay supported within the rising channel or confirm the break.
What's likely the outcome is the dollar will start to really weaken, both fundamentally and technically.
103 probably marked the peak for the dollar and the price has already wiped out all gains in March if we exclude the portion from below the rising channel.
The chart has shown that the dollar is losing its value and the most recent break-below of the bottom of the rising channel determined the case.
The Fed during its last FOMC conference said that interest rate will remain low throughout 2022, which means that demand for dollar will not be expected from a rate hike for a good period of time.
The Fed's balance sheet has expanded to a really horrendous figure during this pandemic which I don't even want to talk about it more.
To sum it up, the dollar may still rise a little further as demand for safe-haven currency such as dollar will rise as COVID cases rose last week.
But it won't be long and the dollar will start to lose its value and should the month closed below the channel, that shall be the beginning to the fall of the dollar.
Dow Jones Brace for ImpactThe US stock market recovery was certainly too extensive which is well reflected on the chart as the market started to reverse.
The trigger came from a sudden jump in the number of new COVID cases in the US but the market rebounded and climbed as the number of new cases did not continue to rise.
However, the market was seen falling again after continuously resisted at the bottom of a broken rising wedge and most importantly, new COVID cases rose to more than one-month high.
The most recent number shows that new COVID cases rose to more than 30,000 and has been rising for 5 consecutive days.
If nothing else goes wrong, we should see a significant gap down once the market is opened for the week and panic arises from this incident will most definitely sustain for quite a while thus the opportunity to continue to sell.
USDCAD Weekly ForecastUSDCAD found support at the zone of previous channel breakout, and has begun a retracement. Price managed to close above a supply zone, and has retested finding support.
As price managed to close above the supply zone before market closing, we could expect further upside this week.
Await pullbacks to buy USDCAD till the next immediate resistance seen at 1.3730 - 1.3800.
EURUSD Weekly ForecastEURUSD finally found support near the top of previous high after an uptrend lasting almost a month.
With such a large movement upwards, we could expect price to retrace lower before finding a direction again.
This week, we could await short pullbacks to sell EURUSD, or conversely, await price to find support at previous demand zones before buying EURUSD again.
Weekly Forecast: USDCAD Finding Support.USDCAD found support at the zone of previous channel breakout, and has begun a retracement. Price managed to close above a supply zone, and has retested finding support.
As price managed to close above the supply zone before market closing, we could expect further upside this week.
Await pullbacks to buy USDCAD till the next immediate resistance seen at 1.3730 - 1.3800.
Weekly Forecast: GBPUSD Broke Bearish StructureGBPUSD has broken the bearish structure formed after a head and shoulders pattern this week, and has begun a new uptrend.
Price has currently broken above previous neckline of head and shoulder pattern and stayed bullish.
This week, we can look to continue buying GBPUSD if price retraces and retest support.
Next strong levels of resistance can be seen at top of head and shoulders pattern, which coincides with an inside bar candle from previous bullish breakout.
Weekly Forecast: USDCAD Start of DowntrendUSDCAD has finally broken out of a 2 month major consolidation pattern and has begun a downtrend. As price broke, and closed below a strong support zone, more downside is to be expected.
This week, we could look to sell USDCAD again if price retraces back to demand turned supply zone.
Next point of major support could be seen at 1.3532 - 1.3450.
Weekly Forecast: GBPUSD Approaching Key SupportAfter forming a Head and Shoulder pattern, GBPUSD managed to break below its neckline. This week, GBPUSD failed to find support at supply/demand zone formed at previous inside bar candle. Price came back up for a retest and continued dipping.
As price is soon approaching a key support zone at 1.2000 again, we are expecting strong support at this level.
Should price be able to fall to 1.2000, we can look to buy GBPUSD again at a good price level if support holds.
Weekly Forecast: EURUSD Visiting the BottomEURUSD climbed steadily last week but faced strong resistance as it reached the top of the major range.
At the same time, a bearish bat was formed which attracted strong selling and now the price is revisiting the bottom again.
As the current bearish trend has just begun, or probably halfway, the price is most likely to fall further.
Therefore, we can first wait for a selling opportunity again should the price retraces upward to somewhere closer to the supply zone around 1.0950.
Whereas if the price continues to fall and reach the bottom, it is most likely going to range first before it starts to rebound and form another bullish trend.