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XAU/USD 28 October - 01 November 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has continued its surge, reaching new all-time highs with no signs yet of bearish pullback phase initiation. The initial indication of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), marked by a blue dotted line. Price's ongoing ascent has now positioned CHoCH significantly closer to most recent price action. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has sustained its upward surge since printing a bullish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS), driven by softer U.S. macroeconomic data and heightened geopolitical tensions. Following bullish iBOS, a bearish pullback is anticipated, though there are currently no signs of it materialising. The first indication, though not a confirmation, of a potential pullback would be price printing a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), which is marked by a blue dotted line. Price could potentially achieve new highs, bringing the bearish CHoCH positioning significantly closer to current price action. This proximity would provide a realistic opportunity for price to signal the initiation of a bearish pullback phase. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Gold’s rally persists amid the Fed’s dovish tone and heightened geopolitical tensions, solidifying its safe-haven appeal. Price has printed a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), signaling—but not yet confirming—the start of a bearish pullback phase. Intraday Expectation: Despite the bearish CHoCH, price has yet to pull back into the internal 50% EQ discount. We could see a reaction at the H4 supply level before any confirmation of bearish pullback initiation. Technical Note: The strong high at 2,758.525 is anticipated to remain protected. However, with CHoCH positioning on the daily timeframe somewhat distant, price may print a bullish iBOS in the near term to align with the daily timeframe’s movement. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 14-18 October 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has continued to print all-time highs and surge, with no signs of bearish pullback phase initiation. The first indication of a pullback would be price printing a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), marked by a blue dotted line. Price has continued to rise, and CHoCH positioning remains unchanged from the analysis dated 22 September 2024. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS) and continued its upward surge, driven by soft U.S. macroeconomic data and increasing geopolitical tensions. Following the bullish iBOS, a bearish pullback is anticipated, though there are no current signs of it materializing. The first indication, but not a confirmation, of a pullback would be price printing a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH). Since last week's analysis, CHoCH positioning has remained unchanged. The bearish CHoCH level is denoted by a blue dotted line. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. As mentioned in my analysis dated 09 October 2024, price could print lower to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price action, as the previous CHoCH positioning was quite distant. This is exactly how price has moved. Price is currently positioned in the premium above the 50% equilibrium (EQ). Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to react at the premium of the 50% EQ or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal low. I advise caution due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and the Fed's dovish stance. However, we will remain systematic in our approach. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 07-11 October 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has continued to print all-time highs and surge, with no indication of bearish pullback phase initiation. The first sign of a pullback would be price printing a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), which is marked with a blue dotted line. Price has continued higher, and CHoCH positioning remains unchanged from the analysis dated 22 September 2024. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS) and continued its upward surge, driven by soft U.S. macroeconomic data and increasing geopolitical tensions. Following bullish iBOS, a bearish pullback is anticipated, though there are currently no signs of it materialising. The first indication, though not a confirmation of a pullback would be price printing a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH). Since last week's analysis, CHoCH positioning has remained unchanged. The bearish CHoCH level is marked with a blue dotted line. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Bearish swing pullback phase has been confirmed by the first bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS), which has established the current swing range. Currently, price is trading between the swing high and internal low. Following second bearish iBOS price printed a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), suggesting but not confirming the initiation of a bullish pullback phase. Price reacted from the premium zone above the 50% internal equilibrium (EQ). Although the weak internal low was targeted, price was unable to close below it after reacting from an H4 demand zone. Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to target weak internal low. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 30 September - 04 October 2024Weekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has continued to print all time highs and surge with no indication of bearish pullback phase initiation. The first indication of pullback will be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line. Price has continued higher with CHoCH positioning remaining the same as last week's analysis dated 22 September 2024. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS and continued it's surge in price lead by soft US macroeconomics and increasing geopolitical tensions. After bullish iBOS we expect bearish pullback, which, at the moment, is not showing any signs of printing. First indication, but not confirmation of pullback is for price to print a bearish CHoCH. Since last week's analysis, CHoCH positioning has remained unchanged. Bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue doted line. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has continued to surge in price printing all time highs with price pulling back very minimally. Price has printed a further bullish iBOS. Bearish CHoCH has been printed indicating bearish pullback phase initiation. We also have established an internal range. You will note the internal range has extensively narrowed, allowing price to confirm swing pullback phase by printing bearish iBOS. However, we remain bullish. Although price has tapped in to strong internal low, price has been unable to close below Intraday expectation: Price to target weak internal high, however, due to the narrowing of the internal range and all HTF's requiring pullback, it would not be unrealistic if price prints a bearish iBOS. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 23-27 September 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has continued to print all time highs and surge with no indication of bearish pullback phase initiation. The first indication of pullback will be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line. I have previously mentioned, for over one month, that price could print further highs which would bring CHOCH positioning closer to current price and this is what price printed. CHoCH positioning has been brought significantly closer to price. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price had printed a bullish iBOS and continued it's surge in price. After bullish iBOS we expect bearish pullback, which, at the moment, is not showing any signs of bearish pullback. First indication, but not confirmation of pullback is for price to print a bearish CHoCH. Since last week's analysis, CHoCH positioning has been brought significantly closer to price which allows for more realistic expectation of pullback indication. Bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue doted line. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Despite price printing it's first indication of bearish pullback phase initiation, price continued bullish. Recent economic data and geopolitical tensions, have influenced market sentiment such as the Fed's recent interest rate decision (reduction) which typically supports Gold prices. Therefore, price is expected to remain highly volatile. From a structural perspective, price is within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line Intraday expectation: Due to volatility, price could continue bullish, however, price could also initiate bearish pullback, therefore, I will be standing by. H4 Analysis:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 16-20 September 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has continued to print all time highs and surge with no indication of bearish pullback phase initiation. The first indication of pullback will be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line. I have previously mentioned, for over one month, that price could print further highs which would bring CHOCH positioning closer to current price and this is what price printed. CHoCH positioning has been brought significantly closer to price. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS. After bullish iBOS we expect bearish pullback, which, at the moment, is not showing any signs of bearish pullback. First indication, but not confirmation of pullback is for price to print a bearish CHoCH. Bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue doted line. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: Intraday analysis/bias remains the same as analysis dated 13 September 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a further bullish iBOS without any significant pullback following previous bullish iBOS Recent economic data, particularly from the US has influenced market sentiment such as softer US employment data leading to an expectation of a more softer approach from the Fed which typically supports Gold prices. Intraday expectation: Price indicate pullback by printing bearish CHoCH. Current CHoCH is significantly far, therefore, price could print higher-highs to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 9-13 September 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has continued to print all time highs with no indication of bearish pullback phase initiation. The first indication of pullback will be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line. I have previously mentioned that price could print further highs which would bring CHOCH positioning closer to current price and this is what price printed again in last week's weekly analysis, However, CHoCH positioning remains the same. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. On Tuesday 20 August 2024 price printed all time high. Thursday 22 August 2024 price printed a bearish CHoCH which indicated bearish pullback phase initiation. Printing of bearish CHoCH has also confirmed internal range. Thus far, over a period of 12-days, price has been unable break weak internal high which is an indicator that price may seek further liquidity before attempting to target weak internal high again. I would expect price to either react at discount of internal 50% EQ or Daily demand zone before targeting weak internal high. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: Intraday expectation, analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 August 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS. After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback. Price has printed bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms bearish pullback phase initiation Intraday expectation: Whilst price did continue bearish as part of bearish pullback phase, I am concerned that price has not, as yet, pulled back deep enough into either H4 demand zone or discount of 50% EQ, therefore, it is my view that price will seek further liquidity before a sustained bullish move to target weak internal high. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 02-06 August 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has continued to print all time highs with no indication of bearish pullback phase initiation. The first indication of pullback will be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line. I have previously mentioned that price could print further highs which would bring CHOCH positioning closer to current price and this is what price printed again in last week's weekly analysis, However, CHoCH positioning remains the same. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. On Tuesday 20 August 2024 price printed all time high. Thursday 22 August 2024 price printed a bearish CHoCH which indicated bearish pullback phase initiation. Printing of bearish CHoCH has also confirmed internal range. Thus far, price has been unable break weak internal high which is an indicator that price may seek further liquidity before attempting to target weak internal high again. I would expect price to either react at discount of internal 50% EQ or Daily demand zone before targeting weak internal high. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: Intraday expectation, analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 August 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS. After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback. Price has printed bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms bearish pullback phase initiation Intraday expectation: Whilst price did continue bearish as part of bearish pullback phase, I am concerned that price has not, as yet, pulled back deep enough into either H4 demand zone or discount of 50% EQ, therefore, it is my view that price will seek further liquidity before a sustained bullish move to target weak internal high. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 26-30 August 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has continued to print all time highs with no indication of bearish pullback phase initiation. The first indication of pullback will be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line. I have previously mentioned that price could print further highs which would bring CHOCH positioning closer to current price and this is what price printed again, However, CHoCH positioning remains the same. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a further bullish iBOS. After bullish iBOS we expect bearish pullback. First indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation is for price to print a bearish CHoCH. Bearish CHoCH positioning, which is denoted with a blue dotted line, and 50% internal EQ are almost identical. We currently do not have any indication of price pulling back. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: Intraday expectation, analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 August 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS. After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback. Price has printed bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms bearish pullback phase initiation Intraday expectation: Whilst price did continue bearish as part of bearish pullback phase, I am concerned that price has not, as yet, pulled back deep enough into either H4 demand zone or discount of 50% EQ, therefore, it is my view that price will seek further liquidity before a sustained bullish move to target weak internal high. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 19-23 August 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has continued to print all time highs with no indication of bearish pullback phase initiation. The first indication of pullback will be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line. I have previously mentioned that price could print further highs which would bring CHOCH positioning closer to current price and this is what price printed. CHoCH positioning has been brought close to current price action. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a further bullish iBOS. After bullish iBOS we expect bearish pullback. First indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation is for price to print a bearish CHoCH. Bearish CHoCH positioning, which is denoted with a blue dotted line, and 50% internal EQ are almost identical. We currently do not have any indication of price pulling back. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS. After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback. Bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line. H4 demand zone is positioned the same as bearish CHoCH positioning. Intraday expectation: On a candle-to-candle view since iBOS, price is printing higher highs, therefore, wait until price indicates pullback. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 12-16 August 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has, as yet, failed to indicate bearish pullback following bullish bullish BOS and iBOS. The first indication of pullback will be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line. However, price could print further highs which would bring CHOCH positioning closer to current price. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS. Price indicated bearish pullback phase initiation once it printed a bearish CHoCH. Price then continued bearish, reacting at discount of internal 50% EQ denoted in blue. Price has, once again, almost precisely reacted at 50% EQ of the internal structure, therefore, technically price should target weak internal high. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Following price printing bullish BOS price pulled back to discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high. As previously mentioned, bullish momentum and pro swing/internal structure was unable to break and close above weak internal high, which could be an early indication that bearish pullback phase is incomplete and price will seek further liquidity before targeting weak internal high. This is what price printed according to my analysis. Intraday expectation: Price has reacted at an H4 demand level, therefore, price to target weak internal high. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 05-09 August 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Last week's weekly analysis missed as I was on holiday. Since my last weekly analysis price has print further all time highs, which, as a result, as brought the CHoCH positioning closer to more recent price action. Price has, as yet, failed to indicate bearish pullback following bullish BOS and iBOS. The first indication of pullback will be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line. However, price could print further highs which would bring CHOCH positioning closer to current price. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS. Price indicated bearish pullback phase initiation once it printed a bearish CHoCH. Price then continued bearish, reacting at discount of internal 50% EQ denoted in blue. Price has, thus far, failed to break and close above the weak internal high which could be an early indication that price will continue with it's bearish pullback phase in order to seek more liquidity. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Following price printing bullish BOS price pulled back to discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high. However, bullish momentum and pro swing/internal structure was unable to break and close above weak internal high, which, much like the daily TF, could be an early indication that bearish pullback phase is incomplete and price will seek further liquidity before targeting weak internal high. Intraday expectation: Technically, price should target weak internal high, however, price has made one failed attempt, therefore, price could continue bullish, react at H4 supply level, print bearish price action, react at H4 demand level before targeting weak internal high. Alternative scenario, price to target weak internal high. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 15-19 July 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Analysis/Bias remains the same as last week's analysis dated 07 July 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish internal iBOS followed by a bullish swing BOS. Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following bullish internal and swing BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation of pullback initiation would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a blue vertical dotted line. Price has been unable to print a bearish CHoCH and has reacted from premium 50% EQ of the internal low and fractal high. Forthcoming week's expectation is for price to continue bullish, create a new high which would bring CHoCH closer to current price action allowing for price to indicate pullback initiation closer to current price action. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. As mentioned in last week's analysis dated 07 July 2024 that since bullish swing and internal break of structure price has not, as yet, pulled back in to discount of 50% EQ. Both of which swing and internal 50% EQ are located very close-by. Please note, swing range has yet to be established. I also mentioned that this could possibly be an indication that price needed more liquidity to fuel it's drive to the downside which failed after reacting from a daily demand zone. This is precisely what occurred and price is now reacting at a daily demand zone and extreme of the 50% EQ of the internal structure , however, the current internal high is weak so price should, technically, target the weak internal high and print a bullish iBOS. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. As previously mentioned, following bullish iBOS, price did not pull back significantly enough to indicate bearish pullback initiation which could indicate that price is seeking further liquidity to initiate bearish pullback. I also previously mentioned that price could also create a new high, higher than the current fractal high to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price action and tap into daily supply zone. This is precisely what occurred. Current position of CHOCH remains quite a distance away, therefore, in my opinion, the above remains valid. I would expect price to print a higher high, which would bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price action. Intraday expectation: price to print a higher high, which would bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price action to then initiate bearish pullback phase. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 08-12 July 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish internal iBOS followed by a bullish swing BOS. Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following bullish internal and swing BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation of pullback initiation would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a blue vertical dotted line. Price has been unable to print a bearish CHoCH and has reacted from premium 50% EQ of the internal low and fractal high. Forthcoming week's expectation is for price to continue bullish, create a new high which would bring CHoCH closer to current price action allowing for price to indicate pullback initiation closer to current price action. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. Since bullish swing and internal break of structure price has not, as yet, pulled back in to discount of 50% EQ. Both swing and internal 50% EQ are located very close-by. An attempt was made on May 24 to break structure to the upside, however, price failed to close above. This could indicate price needed more liquidity to fuel it's drive to the downside which failed after reacting from a daily demand zone. Expectation is for price to continue bullish and react at daily demand zone before pullback initiation. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has continued bullish and printed a bullish iBOS aligning itself with swing structure. Intraday expectation: Price to continue bullish and react at daily supply zone. This should being CHoCH close to current price action to indicate bearish pullback initiation. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 01-05 July 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Analysis/Bias remain the same as last week's analysis dated 23 June 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish internal iBOS followed by a bullish swing BOS Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following bullish internal and swing BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a blue vertical dotted line. Last week's expectation dated 02 June 2024 was for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback and print a bearish CHoCH. The forthcoming week's expectation is for price to print a bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: Analysis/Bias remain the same as last week's analysis dated 23 June 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. Due to the news on 7 June 2024 whereby China halted reserves buying, Gold sold off, however, from a technical analysis perspective swing and internal structure remains bullish and we are in a Weekly and Daily pullback phase, which has been assisted by the news. Expectation is for price to continue bearish, react at discount of internal or swing 50% EQ (swing is marked in black, internal is marked in blue) before targeting weak internal high which is denoted with a blue dashed line. It would not be unrealistic if price continued bearish to the internal or swing low, react at daily demand level before targeting weak internal high. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. As previously mentioned, price reacted at 50% EQ of the internal range to target weak internal low, however, price was unable to close below internal low due to H4 demand zone. Nonetheless, internal structure remains bearish until strong internal high is taken out. Price is once again showing reaction to premium of 50% EQ. Intraday expectation: Price to once again target weak internal low. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
2
XAU/USD 24-28 June 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Analysis/Bias remain the same as last week's analysis dated 16 June 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish internal iBOS followed by a bullish swing BOS Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following bullish internal and swing BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a blue vertical dotted line. Last week's expectation dated 02 June 2024 was for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback and print a bearish CHoCH. The forthcoming week's expectation is for price to print a bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback. Weekly chart: Daily Analysis: Analysis/Bias remain the same as last week's analysis dated 16 June 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. Due to the news on 7 June 2024 whereby China halted reserves buying, Gold sold off, however, from a technical analysis perspective swing and internal structure remains bullish and we are in a Weekly and Daily pullback phase, which has been assisted by the news. Expectation is for price to continue bearish, react at discount of internal or swing 50% EQ (swing is marked in black, internal is marked in blue) before targeting weak internal high which is denoted with a blue dashed line. It would not be unrealistic if price continued bearish to the internal or swing low, react at daily demand level before targeting weak internal high. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price has reacted at premium of 50% EQ of the swing range, which is marked in black, and very close to a H4 POI. Strong swing low is expected to hold, however, it would be worth noting the swing low must be taken as the weekly and daily TF's are both in pullback phase. Intraday expectation: Price to target weak internal low H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 17-21 June 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Analysis/Bias remain the same as last week's analysis dated 09 June 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish internal iBOS followed by a bullish swing BOS Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following bullish internal and swing BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a blue vertical dotted line. Last week's expectation dated 02 June 2024 was for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback and print a bearish CHoCH. The forthcoming week's expectation is for price to print a bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: Analysis/Bias remain the same as last week's analysis dated 09 June 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. Due to the news on 7 June 2024 whereby China halted reserves buying, Gold sold off, however, from a technical analysis perspective swing and internal structure remains bullish and we are in a Weekly and Daily pullback phase, which has been assisted by the news. Expectation is for price to continue bearish, react at discount of internal or swing 50% EQ (swing is marked in black, internal is marked in blue) before targeting weak internal high which is denoted with a blue dashed line. It would not be unrealistic if price continued bearish to the internal or swing low, react at daily demand level before targeting weak internal high. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price traded to the downside, however, price was unable to breach and close below weak internal low where we saw a reaction at a H4 demand level. Nonetheless, internal structure remains bearish, therefore, price should technically target weak internal low. Price could potentially continue to trade bullish, react at either premium of 50% EQ or H4 supply level before targeting weak internal low. Strong swing low is expected to hold, however, it would be worth noting the swing low must be taken as the weekly and daily TF's are both in pullback phase. Intraday expectation: Price to continue bullish, react at premium of 50% EQ or H4 POI before targeting weak internal low. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 10-14 June 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish internal iBOS followed by a bullish swing BOS Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following bullish internal and swing BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a blue vertical dotted line. Last week's expectation dated 02 June 2024 was for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback and print a bearish CHoCH. The forthcoming week's expectation is for price to print a bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. Due to the news on 7 June 2024 whereby China halted reserves buying, Gold sold off, however, from a technical analysis perspective swing and internal structure remains bullish and we are in a Weekly and Daily pullback phase, which has been assisted by the news. Expectation is for price to continue bearish, react at discount of internal or swing 50% EQ (swing is marked in black, internal is marked in blue) before targeting weak internal high which is denoted with a blue dashed line. It would not be unrealistic if price continued bearish to the internal or swing low, react at daily demand level before targeting weak internal high. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price has printed a bearish iBOS. The volatility and selloff on Friday 07 June 2024 was due to China announcing they have halted reserves buying. We are now expecting price to pullback. Currently the CHoCH and internal high are positioned at the same level. Price may continue bearish which would bring CHoCH closer to current price action. Intraday expectation: Price to pullback to premium of 50% or H4 POI before targeting weak internal low. Alternative scenario would be for price to continue bearish to reposition CHoCH closer to current price action. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 03-07 June 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish swing BOS followed by a bullish iBOS and continues to break all time highs. Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing and internal BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a blue vertical dotted line. Should this week's candle print the same as last week, price would have printed a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms, weekly pullback initiation. Expectation is for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback and print a bearish CHoCH. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. As previously mentioned, most likely scenario will be for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line which price printed. Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH which is an indication, but not confirmation of pullback initiation. As mentioned on 24 May 2024, price had wicked above Daily supply zone but was unable to close. This could indicate the possibility of a liquidity grab to drive price bearish to initiate pullback. This happened to be the case. As mentioned on 26 May 2024, price could react to a Daily demand zone, which price is currently reacting to. However, the demand zone is not positioned well as it is in the premium of 50% EQ. Price could potentially target the weak internal high which is denoted with a blue dashed line. An alternative scenario is for price to continue bearish, react at discount zone of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: Analysis/Bias remains unchanged from last week's analysis dated 31 May 2024. Additional comment is that price has done almost exactly as scenario two of my analysis of last week. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish BOS. After bullish BOS, expectation is for price to pullback. As previously mentioned, price was showing very early signs of pullback, however, we did not have indication or confirmation. I also previously mentioned that first indication, but not confirmation, would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH. The CHoCH line is denoted with a blue dotted line. Price has printed a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms pullback initiation. As previously mentioned, if price cannot sustain its bullish momentum, it may seek to mitigate the H4 demand zone below. Price was failing to break above discount of 50% EQ which could indicate the bulls are losing control momentarily or seeking further liquidity. As previously mentioned, I have started to map internal structure to gain a better understanding of price action. I mentioned that the blue dotted line will indicate an internal bearish CHoCH as price may pull back deeper to the extreme of the H4 swing low structure which is marked with a blue solid vertical line. Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH with price currently being contained within an internal range. Black EQ marked 0.5 is swing range. Blue EQ marked 0.5 is internal range. Intraday expectation: Scenario one: Price to continue bullish to target weak internal high which is denoted with a blue dashed line. Scenario two: Price to continue bearish and react at H4 POI below to then target weak internal high which is denoted with a blue dashed line. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 27-31 May 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish swing BOS followed by a bullish iBOS and continues to break all time highs. Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing and internal BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a blue vertical dotted line. Last week the CHoCH was at the same level as the internal low. Price continued bullish before pulling back which has moved the CHoCH closer to most recent price action. This allows price to not pull back so deeply to print the very first indication, but not confirmation, of pullback initiation. Expectation is for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback and print a CHoCH. As mentioned 19 May 2024 that it is also reasonable to expect price to continue bullish, bringing ChOCH closer to the current price action to initiate pullback. price has done exactly that. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. As previously mentioned, most likely scenario will be for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line which price printed. Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH which is an indication, but not confirmation of pullback initiation. As mentioned on 24 May 2024, price had wicked above Daily supply zone but was unable to close. This could indicate the possibility of a liquidity grab to drive price bearish to initiate pullback. This happened to be the case. Expectation is for price to continue bearish, react at discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high. However, we do have a daily demand zone close-by so price could potentially react from that POI. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 24 May 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish BOS. After bullish BOS, expectation is for price to pullback. As previously mentioned, price was showing very early signs of pullback, however, we did not have indication or confirmation. I also previously mentioned that first indication, but not confirmation, would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH. The CHoCH line is denoted with a blue dotted line. Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms pullback initiation. Price is now in discount of 50% EQ and close to a H4 demand zone where price we expect to see a reaction. However, price has pulled back deeper mitigating the whole H4 demand zone and beyond. This could indicate that price was seeking liquidity to the extreme of the H4 demand zone. Conversely, if price cannot sustain its bullish momentum, it may seek to mitigate the H4 demand zone below. Intraday expectation: Scenario one: Price to continue bullish to target weak internal high Scenario two: Price to continue bearish and react at H4 POI below to then target weak internal high which is denoted with a blue dashed line. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 20-24 May 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish swing BOS followed by a bullish iBOS and continues to break all time highs. Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing and internal BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a vertical blue dashed line as internal low as CHoCH are priced at the same level. Price is now trading within a fractal high and internal low. Expectation is for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback. Internal low and CHoCH are positioned at the same level. It is also reasonable to expect price to continue bullish, bringing ChOCH closer to the current price action to initiate pullback. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. As previously mentioned most likely scenario will be for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line which price printed. Price is currently reacting at a daily POI. Previous expectation was for price to continue bearish, react at either discount of 50% EQ or Daily POI's before targeting weak internal high. Price has not shown any indication of pullback initiation and continues bullish. Price has wicked above Daily supply zone but was unable to close. This could indicate the possibility of a liquidity grab to drive price bearish to initiate pullback. Alternative scenario: Price to continue bullish, print iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) to then initiate pullback after iBOS. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish BOS. After bullish BOS, expectation is for price to pullback. We have nested Daily and H4 supply levels where price is expected to initiate pullback, which price did. As previously mentioned, CHoCH was positioned at quite a distance away from current price, therefore, there was a possibility price could engineer a CHoCH closer to current price to indicate initiation of pullback. Price has did this. We are again seeing a reaction to nested Daily and H4 supply levels where price could pull back deeper. I previously commented that price to continue bullish and react at nested Daily and H4 supply levels, which price did. Previous intraday expectation was for price to react at nested Daily and H4 demand where it is expected that price will pull back to discount of 50% EQ or H4 demand levels. Price has reacted deep in to Daily and H4 supply levels but unable to close above. The wicking up and closing below could potentially mean a liquidity grab so price can initiate pullback as CHoCH has now been repositioned even closer (than previous) to current price action. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 13-17 May 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Analysis/Bias remains the same as last week's weekly analysis dated 05 May 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish swing BOS followed by a bullish iBOS and continues to break all time highs. Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing and internal BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a vertical blue dashed line as internal low as CHoCH are priced at the same level. Price is now trading within a fractal high and internal low. Expectation is for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback. Internal low and CHoCH are positioned at the same level. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. As previously mentioned most likely scenario will be for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line which price printed. Price is currently reacting at a daily POI. Expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at either discount of 50% EQ or Daily POI's before targeting weak internal high. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish BOS. After bullish BOS expectation is for price to pullback. We have nested Daily and H4 supply levels where price is expected to initiate pullback. CHoCH is positioned at quite a distance away from current price, therefore, there is a possibility price could engineer a CHoCH closer to current price to indicate initiation of pullback. Previous intraday expectation dated 10 May 2024 was for price to continue bullish, react at nested Daily and H4 POI levels to start pullback phase which price is indicated as printing. Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at discount of 50% EQ or H4 POI, both of which are closely positioned before targeting weak internal high. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 6-11 May 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Analysis/Bias remains the same as last week's weekly analysis dated 28 April 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish swing BOS followed by a bullish iBOS and continues to break all time highs. Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing and internal BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a vertical blue dashed line as internal low as CHoCH are priced at the same level. Price is now trading within a fractal high and internal low. Expectation is for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback. Internal low and CHoCH are positioned at the same level. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: Price was unable to print higher highs . As per last week's analysis, CHoCH had repositioned closer to most recent price action. This was advantageous due to the fact that price did not need to retrace much deeper to initiate pullback. Price eventually printed a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but does not confirm pullback initiation. Remainder of analysis/bias remains unchanged since last daily analysis dated 28 April 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. Most likely scenario will be for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line. As mentioned on 31 March 2024, price could potentially continue to trade bullish to seek further liquidity before pullback, however, it is looking increasingly likely a pullback will be imminent. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price has now printed a bearish BOS and iBOS as price needed a pullback from all HTF's Following the shift in structure we now expect price to pullback. First indication, but not confirmation, of pullback initiation would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dashed line. Price is reacting at H4 demand level. Price remains in pullback phase and is now is discount of internal structure where it is expected the strong low to hold. As per intraday expectation dated 06 April, price was to print bullish CHoCH, reach 50% of internal EQ before targeting weak internal low. Price did print bullish CHOCH and reach 50% EQ and targeted weak internal low, however, price was unable to close below. Intraday expectation : From a structural perspective price to target weak internal low. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK