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XAU/USD 29 April-03 May 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Analysis/Bias remains the same as last week's weekly analysis dated 28 April 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish swing BOS followed by a bullish iBOS and continues to break all time highs. Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing and internal BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a vertical blue dashed line as internal low as CHoCH are priced at the same level. Price is now trading within a fractal high and internal low. Expectation is for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback. Internal low and CHoCH are positioned at the same level. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: Price was unable to print higher highs . As per last week's analysis, CHoCH had repositioned closer to most recent price action. This was advantageous due to the fact that price did not need to retrace much deeper to initiate pullback. Price eventually printed a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but does not confirm pullback initiation. Remainder of analysis/bias remains unchanged since last daily analysis dated 21 April 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. Most likely scenario will be for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line. As mentioned on 31 March 2024, price could potentially continue to trade bullish to seek further liquidity before pullback, however, it is looking increasingly likely a pullback will be imminent. Daily chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has now printed a bullish iBOS aligned with swing structure. Following the bullish iBOS we expect price to pullback. As per Intraday expectation dated 26 April 2024 was for price pullback to either 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high, which was as per expectation. Intraday expectation: Price has yet to confirm pullback initiation. First indication, but not confirmation would be for price to print bearish iBOS. This would in-turn confirm internal structure. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 22-26 April 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Analysis/Bias remains the same as last week's weekly analysis dated 14 April 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish swing BOS followed by a bullish iBOS and continues to break all time highs. Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing and internal BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a vertical blue dashed line as internal low as CHoCH are priced at the same level. Price is now trading within a fractal high and internal low. Expectation is for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback. Internal low and CHoCH are positioned at the same level. Weekly Chart: Daily analysis: Price has continued to print all time highs. CHoCH has once again been repositioned closer to most recent price action. This is advantageous due to the fact that price will now not need to retrace much deeper to initiate pullback. Remainder of analysis/bias remains unchanged since last daily analysis dated 14 April 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. Most likely scenario will be for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line. As mentioned on 31 March 2024, price could potentially continue to trade bullish to seek further liquidity before pullback, however, it is looking increasingly likely a pullback will be imminent. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: Bias/Analysis remains unchanged since yesterday's analysis dated 19 April 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price remains contained within an internal range where we saw a reaction from H4 supply with price unable to close below strong internal low. Price reacted at H4 supply and subsequently reacted at H4 demand. Price is currently between H4 supply and demand where we are seeing a battle between the bulls and bears with price printing an internal bearish CHoCH. The prevailing trend, which is bullish, would be a factor, therefore, current intraday expectation is for price to react at H4 demand level to target weak internal high, however, because price has printed a bearish CHoCH an alternative scenario could be for the price breach and close below internal low as all HTF's require a pullback. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 15-19 April 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Price has been printing further all time highs. Below analysis remains the same as last week's weekly analysis dated 07 April 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish swing BOS followed by a bullish iBOS and continues to break all time highs. Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing and internal BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a vertical blue dashed line as internal low as CHoCH are priced at the same level. Price is now trading within a fractal high and internal low. Expectation is for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback. Internal low and CHoCH are positioned at the same level. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: Price has continued to print all time highs. CHoCH has been repositioned closer to most recent price action. Remainder of analysis/bias remains unchanged since last daily analysis dated 07 April 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. Most likely scenario will be for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line. As mentioned on 31 March 2024, price could potentially continue to trade bullish to seek further liquidity before pullback, however, it is looking increasingly likely a pullback will be imminent as the CHoCH has been brought considerably closer. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Gold continues it's relentless bullish run and continues to print all time highs. Price on all HTF's requires a pullback. Bearish CHoCH which is denoted with blue dotted line would indicate pullback initiation but not confirm. Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH. Due to the bullish nature of the market and prices at all time highs, the most prudent remains the same, which is to adopt patience and allow price to print structure as opposed to picking tops. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
2
Wait for better levelsFundamental View Buyers of gold in recession, or sellers of it for a stronger dollar? Volatility in the bond market and uncertainty about interest rate cuts are pushing the dollar higher, dimming the appeal of gold (XAU). Last week, the recovery of the US dollar affected the price of gold (XAU) and put pressure on gold. Because market participants assessed the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in May. However, there are still many buyers and markets for gold, who see the fear of stagnation more strongly. Now for this week. There are many things in the US economic calendar that will help traders know what to expect from the Fed. Investors are monitoring Economic growth data (GDP), jobless claims on Thursday, and PCE data on Friday. The GDP print is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.0% during this period, which means that a recession is not imminent. And If the PCE index prints much higher than expected, it reduces the likelihood that the Fed will hold off on rate hikes in May, especially if economic data is generally positive. With this data, Investors evaluate the interest rate increase in May. Although the market expects a 25 basis point hike on May 3, uncertainty surrounding the possibility of a rate cut this year has caused volatility in the US bond market. The volatility of the bond market causes the dollar to move. The market is currently looking at a 25 percent hike, with the direction of travel determined by whether the Fed will hold off on interest rate changes after that. While this could support gold prices, the recent market rally and overly technical conditions mean there is still scope for a downside if the Fed's rate outlook is confirmed. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is an 84.6% chance of a 25% rate hike in May, with interest rate cuts expected later in the year. Higher interest rates reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding bullion. Technical View Gold has taken a downward trend in the four-hour time frame. This precious metal has locked itself in the TSE:1960 to TADAWUL:2020 area. It shows that gold needs some drivers to rise or fall. Any sign of information that leads traders to fear further recession could push gold to the TADAWUL:2020 - TSE:2048 highs. But what we think is the better-than-expected print for the US economy makes more downward pressure on XAU. Gold is currently trading at the price of TSE:1982 dollars and is on a dynamic resistance. There is a possibility of a slight rise for gold at the beginning of the week, but we don't have any rush to trade. If the economic data encourages us to sell gold, we will wait and do it in the HKEX:2000 to TADAWUL:2020 area, and if we going to buy gold, we will do it in TSE:1960 or in the important key area of 1920 dollars.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alisabbaghi
any price drop considered as a correction and a BUY opportunityFundamental View Gold is still under buying pressure but it is at an important level In the past week, gold was fixed above 2000 dollars. This consolidation was done right above the HKEX:2000 and TSE:2002 area. Important and psychological area. The momentum is still bullish and can rise again to its historical high. We mean the area of 2060. But this price jump definitely needs a catalyst as a driver. The instability of the economy, the uncertainty in the decisions of the Federal Reserve to interest rate increasing cycles, the purchase of gold by central banks, the crisis of banks under the pressure of recession and inflation, as well as the decrease in bond yields make gold more attractive for buying than ever before. If in the coming week, the employment data is higher than expected or if the inflation increases a lot, they can make gold fall sharply and return it to the previous level. But any disappointing data or even close to expectations will stabilize gold in the current areas and even towards higher levels. Technical View Technically, gold is slightly overbought at current levels. But what is seen in the candlesticks (downward shadows) shows the pressure on buyers in this area. If there is no better than expected data for the US economy (employers and CPI), any drop in the price of gold to a lower level can be considered as a correction and another opportunity for buying gold again.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Alisabbaghi
Gold Growth stopped at a strong level of $2000Weekly gold Analysis Fundamental View: Gold Growth stopped at a strong level of $2000 Last week, we mentioned the buy sentiments of gold as a safe-haven asset. Now that the market has priced banking crises what are the gold movement drivers? Recession, yes fear of stagnation is remain. Fear of recession in the global economy remains and now the gold buyers are still in their long positions. Why do the world's banks buy gold? On the other hand, the multi-polarization of economic powers and the formation of new regions in the east by China and Russia, and the declining influence of the US dollar as the global reserve currency has been the main driver of gold's rally to the $2,000 level last week. Undoubtedly, China and Russia intend to free themselves from the vortex of the global economy, which is heavily dependent on the US dollar. The concern about the extreme fluctuations of the dollar and the euro has caused the demand for gold to increase from the central banks of the world. Concerns about the trade war and the possibility of a currency war between China and the United States are also considered important factors. Last week, we read in the news that China made its first liquefied natural gas transaction in yuan through the Shanghai Oil and Gas Exchange. Also, last week, China and Brazil announced that they will carry out trade and financial exchanges between them in Riel (Brazil's currency) and Yuan, to which Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the Middle East have also been added. The result is less use of US dollars and more use of gold. Technical View The closing price in the previous month's candle shows the strong power of major buyers of gold, and this defends the upward trend of gold in the long term. From a technical point of view, we are currently in the overbought zone for Gold/XAU. This does not mean that gold will go down. Rather, we consider it only a price correction and collecting more liquidity at lower prices for new buyers. $1955, $1937, and $1910 are our main support levels
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Alisabbaghi
A safe haven for every traderFundamental View At any time in history, if any risk enters the market, traders turn to safe areas to protect their assets. In the past few months, gold has been the best safest place for all financial risks. From recession to financial crises and recently banking problems. As a result, traders withdraw their assets from banks and keep them safe in gold. In the last week, gold grew by about 9%, and the only reason for that is the gold's paradise, traders took their money out of bankrupt banks and invested in gold. Even before the financial crisis, many analysts believed that the possibility of a pivot in FED monetary policies was imminent. Now with the bank crisis, Sooner or later, this would happen. so the conditions are set for a bullish gold market. Technical View From a technical point of view, gold is in an over-bought area and retail traders may be thinking about short on these levels of gold. but what the smart money has entered into gold is heavy long. Therefore, in the short term, before breaking the last high resistance levels, 2000 and 2070 dollars, we will probably see the price of gold in side way. On the other hand, Markets don't rises and fall like a waterfall and need a correction, but in no way is this correction suitable for selling, you should lurk and wait to buy gold at lower levels. $1946, $1911, and $1877 are the main support levels. Calendar events On Tuesday we have the Australian central bank's meeting. Wednesday is our volatile forex day. The FOMC and the FED interest rate decision will strongly impact the gold price. any sign of hawkish policy makes pressure on gold and any dovish policy pushes gold higher.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Alisabbaghi
Gold trade idea, base on US calendar data printWeekly gold analysis 📌 Key points and overview: Technical view, can range between 1730$ and 1764$ Any lower than expectations can be a helping hand for gold to rise, and any US data more than expected can be a downward pressure for downside gold. 📝 Fundamental Analysis: After the sharp rise of gold, last week we saw the correction of gold in the range of 1730 dollars. The correction was due to lower-than-expected inflation data for the United States. But after that, the re-decline of the US dollar and the retreat of US bond yields helped gold to move slightly higher and reach the $1,760 range. But for this week. In incoming week all economic data from the US are expected to be lower than the previous value. it makes the retail traders inclined to sell the dollar, and therefore in the short term we will see the growth of gold, but we have to wait for the result of the actual data. Any lower than expectations can be a helping hand for gold to rise, and any US data more than expected can be a downward pressure for downside gold. CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that markets have priced in a 70% chance of a 50bp FED rate hike in December. As a result, good economic data will have less impact on the rise of the dollar, while bad economic data can severely downward pressure for the US dollar. 📉 Technical view: From a technical point of view, gold was able to establish itself above the range of $1730. It can range between 1730$ and 1764$ Also, the price is currently trading above the moving average of 200, which shows that the bullish bias stays intact. 1705$ and 1734$-1730$ are important support levels. 1760$ and 1780$ are important resistance. 📰 Important calendar events: ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, JOB OPENINGS, HOME SALES, JOBLESS CLAIMS and ISM PMI On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish labor market data for the month of November. Non-farm payrolls (NFP) are expected to decline by 39,000 following growth of 239,000 in October. A print of less than 200,000 will likely weigh on the US dollar and push gold higher. A disappointing jobs report on Wednesday and Thursday could signal a smaller interest rate hike for the Federal Reserve. If the market has such an assessment, it will reduce the yield of US bonds, which is extremely beneficial for the rise of gold. On Thursday, the ISM Institute will release the manufacturing PMI data for November. The PMI is expected to drop to 49.8 from 50.2 in October. If the ISM PMI report shows that price pressures ease in November, the US dollar may come under selling pressure. And in this scenario, gold prices can rise in short-term reactions
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Alisabbaghi
Gold, Short-Term sellWeekly gold analysis 📌 Key points and overview: We can think about it to buy at lower prices with the lowest risk. Disappointing home and building sales data could bolster expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow its rate of contraction. End-of-week flows could change the sentiment and play an important role in keeping gold on the sidelines ahead of next week's Fed meeting minutes. 📝 Analysis: About 10% growth last week! What can be said? Sharpe's move last week narrows the way for Saud in the short term. Gold needs correction. The Federal Reserve will likely indicate that it will continue to raise interest rates. What we expect according to recent job market data. It is true that we are cautious because the change in the contractionary policies of the Federal Reserve is likely, but we cannot expect such a short-term reduction in inflation data alone. We will need at least a few months of consecutive downward inflation. On the other hand, the sudden growth of gold last week showed how attractive the price of gold is for buyers, I mean the prices of $1,620. They think these prices are cheap. Since we don't know how strong the Federal Reserve will be in its upcoming meetings, or we don't know if they will talk more softly, selling gold is a bit risky. We have to wait because the Fed's job with inflation is not done yet. On the other hand, many buyers are waiting at the low prices area. Our suggestion is simple, let's wait for this last growth of gold to rest in a correction, we can think about it to buy in lower prices with lowest risk. The Fed's pressure on the dollar to control inflation will put the US into a recession. We cannot accurately determine the magnitude of this recession, but what is clear is that it will be a recession, and the winners of this recession are gold buyers. 📉 Technical view: The head and shoulder pattern is ready to be broken on the 1-hour time frame. The tide of this pattern can make gold bearish in the short term. You can accompany gold in the downward movement by keeping the risk low because the Federal Reserve supports you. But our team tries to be on the lookout to be a buyer of gold at lower prices. 🔸 Failure of 1745$ levels can leads the way down for gold to fall to the 1720$ and 1700$ levels. 📰 Important calendar events: This week we will have construction data. Disappointing data could reinforce expectations of a slowdown in the Fed's pace of contraction. The decline in the value of the US dollar can be the engine for gold to rise again. However, End-of-week flows could change sentiment and play an important role in keeping gold on the sidelines ahead of next week's Fed meeting minutes.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Alisabbaghi
Weekly Gold analysis📝 Weekly gold ◽️ Gold jumped more than 1 percent in its final days after last week's sharp decline, led by weaker U.S. jobs data, but remains under pressure from higher interest rates to continue its downtrend. ◽️ The number of jobs reported was close to market expectations and the market reaction to that data was neither good nor bad. But it had a same result for invetors. However, the jobs data was not very good and this makes the Federal Reserve pay more to continue its policies. ◽️ Gold remains under pressure due to the increase in interest rates by the world's central banks, which recently Europe also had to give in to this increase in interest rates. Because higher rates of banks with the lowest risk can be better than gold or any other assets with a lower yield. ◽️ As long as the current upward rally of the dollar continues, gold will also be dominated by the dollar on the margins, but important thing is that the dollar has been buying at the upper areas for a long time, and any speculators taking profit can be a strong driver for gold buyers. ◽️ The meetings of the ECB, BOC, and Australian RBA for their interest rate hike next week can melt some frozen attention from the US dollar to themselves, and this can be a correction for the dollar and a little rise for gold. 🔻 From a technical point of view, the decline and stabilization of the gold price below the price of 1680 will leave no way for gold to rise. But our analysis team sees the price of gold above $1,700 for at least this week because everything is set for a short-term turnaround. The pullback of gold to the level of $1,700 can raise gold to $1,728.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alisabbaghi
Gold Weekly analysis📝 Weekly gold ◽️ After Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, sellers will have the upper hand because the Fed's hawkish policies will continue. ◽️ This week's NFP report has gained importance as speculation of the Fed's next rate hike increases. ◽️ This week's US NFP report is one of the final pieces of the September interest rate-setting puzzle for the FED. ◽️ We also have the Chicago PMI and the ADP employment report for Wednesday, and the ISM manufacturing PMI on Thursday. On Friday, the NFP report will be released, which is expected to have created 290,000 new jobs in August after the unexpected data of 528,000 jobs in the previous month. ◽️ But what is important is that the Fed said last week that keeping inflation under control is important to them and that they are not backing down from their hawkish stance even as fears of a recession intensify. ◽️ So the chance of an interest rate increase of 0.75% is still high And the only reason the Fed won't budge from its hawkish stance is employment data. If the labor market suffers, the possibility of a 0.5% interest rate increase may still be exceeded 🔻 Fundamentally, there is nothing to effect on gold because the Fed said everything it had to say. US inflation and FED speak all priced on gold. According to our analytical analysis team, it is possible to trade gold with US10Y in the short term. 🔻 If inflation continues, the Federal Reserve will reduce the rate of interest rate hikes 🔻 Friday's inflation report is more important than Powell's speech. Inflation is falling and gold should react positively. 🔻 Importante Supports: $1728, $1711 and $1700 🔻 Importante Resistance: $1754, $1765 and $1775
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alisabbaghi