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Weeklygoldanalysis

XAU/USD 13-17 May 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Analysis/Bias remains the same as last week's weekly analysis dated 05 May 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish swing BOS followed by a bullish iBOS and continues to break all time highs. Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing and internal BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a vertical blue dashed line as internal low as CHoCH are priced at the same level. Price is now trading within a fractal high and internal low. Expectation is for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback. Internal low and CHoCH are positioned at the same level. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. As previously mentioned most likely scenario will be for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line which price printed. Price is currently reacting at a daily POI. Expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at either discount of 50% EQ or Daily POI's before targeting weak internal high. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish BOS. After bullish BOS expectation is for price to pullback. We have nested Daily and H4 supply levels where price is expected to initiate pullback. CHoCH is positioned at quite a distance away from current price, therefore, there is a possibility price could engineer a CHoCH closer to current price to indicate initiation of pullback. Previous intraday expectation dated 10 May 2024 was for price to continue bullish, react at nested Daily and H4 POI levels to start pullback phase which price is indicated as printing. Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at discount of 50% EQ or H4 POI, both of which are closely positioned before targeting weak internal high. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 6-11 May 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Analysis/Bias remains the same as last week's weekly analysis dated 28 April 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish swing BOS followed by a bullish iBOS and continues to break all time highs. Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing and internal BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a vertical blue dashed line as internal low as CHoCH are priced at the same level. Price is now trading within a fractal high and internal low. Expectation is for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback. Internal low and CHoCH are positioned at the same level. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: Price was unable to print higher highs . As per last week's analysis, CHoCH had repositioned closer to most recent price action. This was advantageous due to the fact that price did not need to retrace much deeper to initiate pullback. Price eventually printed a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but does not confirm pullback initiation. Remainder of analysis/bias remains unchanged since last daily analysis dated 28 April 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. Most likely scenario will be for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line. As mentioned on 31 March 2024, price could potentially continue to trade bullish to seek further liquidity before pullback, however, it is looking increasingly likely a pullback will be imminent. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price has now printed a bearish BOS and iBOS as price needed a pullback from all HTF's Following the shift in structure we now expect price to pullback. First indication, but not confirmation, of pullback initiation would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dashed line. Price is reacting at H4 demand level. Price remains in pullback phase and is now is discount of internal structure where it is expected the strong low to hold. As per intraday expectation dated 06 April, price was to print bullish CHoCH, reach 50% of internal EQ before targeting weak internal low. Price did print bullish CHOCH and reach 50% EQ and targeted weak internal low, however, price was unable to close below. Intraday expectation : From a structural perspective price to target weak internal low. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 29 April-03 May 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Analysis/Bias remains the same as last week's weekly analysis dated 28 April 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish swing BOS followed by a bullish iBOS and continues to break all time highs. Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing and internal BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a vertical blue dashed line as internal low as CHoCH are priced at the same level. Price is now trading within a fractal high and internal low. Expectation is for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback. Internal low and CHoCH are positioned at the same level. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: Price was unable to print higher highs . As per last week's analysis, CHoCH had repositioned closer to most recent price action. This was advantageous due to the fact that price did not need to retrace much deeper to initiate pullback. Price eventually printed a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but does not confirm pullback initiation. Remainder of analysis/bias remains unchanged since last daily analysis dated 21 April 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. Most likely scenario will be for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line. As mentioned on 31 March 2024, price could potentially continue to trade bullish to seek further liquidity before pullback, however, it is looking increasingly likely a pullback will be imminent. Daily chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has now printed a bullish iBOS aligned with swing structure. Following the bullish iBOS we expect price to pullback. As per Intraday expectation dated 26 April 2024 was for price pullback to either 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high, which was as per expectation. Intraday expectation: Price has yet to confirm pullback initiation. First indication, but not confirmation would be for price to print bearish iBOS. This would in-turn confirm internal structure. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 22-26 April 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Analysis/Bias remains the same as last week's weekly analysis dated 14 April 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish swing BOS followed by a bullish iBOS and continues to break all time highs. Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing and internal BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a vertical blue dashed line as internal low as CHoCH are priced at the same level. Price is now trading within a fractal high and internal low. Expectation is for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback. Internal low and CHoCH are positioned at the same level. Weekly Chart: Daily analysis: Price has continued to print all time highs. CHoCH has once again been repositioned closer to most recent price action. This is advantageous due to the fact that price will now not need to retrace much deeper to initiate pullback. Remainder of analysis/bias remains unchanged since last daily analysis dated 14 April 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. Most likely scenario will be for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line. As mentioned on 31 March 2024, price could potentially continue to trade bullish to seek further liquidity before pullback, however, it is looking increasingly likely a pullback will be imminent. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: Bias/Analysis remains unchanged since yesterday's analysis dated 19 April 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price remains contained within an internal range where we saw a reaction from H4 supply with price unable to close below strong internal low. Price reacted at H4 supply and subsequently reacted at H4 demand. Price is currently between H4 supply and demand where we are seeing a battle between the bulls and bears with price printing an internal bearish CHoCH. The prevailing trend, which is bullish, would be a factor, therefore, current intraday expectation is for price to react at H4 demand level to target weak internal high, however, because price has printed a bearish CHoCH an alternative scenario could be for the price breach and close below internal low as all HTF's require a pullback. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 15-19 April 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Price has been printing further all time highs. Below analysis remains the same as last week's weekly analysis dated 07 April 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish swing BOS followed by a bullish iBOS and continues to break all time highs. Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing and internal BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a vertical blue dashed line as internal low as CHoCH are priced at the same level. Price is now trading within a fractal high and internal low. Expectation is for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback. Internal low and CHoCH are positioned at the same level. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: Price has continued to print all time highs. CHoCH has been repositioned closer to most recent price action. Remainder of analysis/bias remains unchanged since last daily analysis dated 07 April 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. Most likely scenario will be for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line. As mentioned on 31 March 2024, price could potentially continue to trade bullish to seek further liquidity before pullback, however, it is looking increasingly likely a pullback will be imminent as the CHoCH has been brought considerably closer. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Gold continues it's relentless bullish run and continues to print all time highs. Price on all HTF's requires a pullback. Bearish CHoCH which is denoted with blue dotted line would indicate pullback initiation but not confirm. Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH. Due to the bullish nature of the market and prices at all time highs, the most prudent remains the same, which is to adopt patience and allow price to print structure as opposed to picking tops. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
2
XAU/USD 08-12 April 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a bullish swing BOS followed by a bullish iBOS and continues to break all time highs. Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing and internal BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a vertical blue dashed line as internal low as CHoCH are priced at the same level. Price is now trading within a fractal high and internal low. Expectation is for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback. Internal low and CHoCH are positioned at the same level. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: Analysis/Bias remains unchanged since last daily analysis dated 20/03/2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. Most likely scenario will be for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line. As mentioned on 31 March 2024, price could potentially continue to trade bullish to seek further liquidity before pullback, however, it is looking increasingly likely a pullback will be imminent as the CHoCH has been brought considerably closer. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Gold continues it's bullish run following the Fed's dovish outlook. Price has printed further highs since last Friday's analysis dated 5 April 2024 where we continue to trade within a fractal high and internal low. As mentioned on 22/03/2024, Intraday expectation was for price to react H4 POI to then target fractal high, which price did, creating a new highs and still remains the case. Due to the bullish nature of the market and prices at all time highs, the most prudent approach would be to adopt patience and allow price to print structure as opposed to picking tops. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 01-05 April 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish swing BOS followed by a bullish iBOS. Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing and internal BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a vertical blue dotted line. Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH. Price is now trading within an internal high and fractal low. Expectation is for price to pullback following swing and internal pullback. Internal low and CHoCH are positioned at the same level. Price could potentially continue bullish to bring the CHoCH closer to current price. Weekly Chart : Daily Analysis: Analysis/Bias remains unchanged since last daily analysis dated 20/03/2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. Most likely scenario will be for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line. Price could potentially continue to trade bullish to seek further liquidity before pullback, however, it is looking increasingly likely a pullback will be imminent as the CHoCH has been brought considerably closer. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: Analysis/Bias remains unchanged since last analysis dated 29/03/2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Gold continues it's bullish run following the Fed's dovish outlook on interest rates. Price is now trading within a fractal high and low. As mentioned on 22/03/2024, Intraday expectation was for price to react H4 POI to then target fractal high, which price did, creating a new high. Due to the bullish nature of the market and prices at all time highs, it would be advisable to adopt patience and allow price to print structure as opposed to picking tops. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 25-29 March 2024 Weekly OutlookWeekly Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has finally printed a bullish swing BOS. Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted by a vertical blue dotted line. Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH. Internal structure is now confirmed Expectation is for price to react at Weekly POI's or 50% EQ, which is denoted in blue, before targeting weak internal high. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. Most likely scenario will be for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line. Price could potentially continue to trade bullish to seek further liquidity before pullback, however, it is looking increasingly likely a pullback will be imminent as the CHoCH has been brought considerably closer. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: Bias/Analysis remains unchanged since last analysis dated 22/03/2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Gold continues it's bullish run following the Fed's dovish outlook on interest rates. Price has printed a bullish iBOS where we are currently trading within a fractal high and internal low. Relative to recent price action of the swing range, I have readjusted bullish BOS to bullish iBOS. Intraday expectation is for price to react H4 POI to then target fractal high. Because of the need for HTF's requiring a pullback, another potential scenario would be for price to continue bearish and print a bearish iBOS which would then indicate the Daily pullback has initiated. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 18-22 March 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Bias remains unchanged from last week's analysis dated 10/03/2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. -> Did not reach EQ. Price has finally printed a bullish swing BOS Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a vertical blue dotted line. At some stage HTF request to LTF would be to switch bearish to facilitate HTF pullback. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: Bias remains unchanged from last week's analysis dated 10/03/2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. -. Sub-Internal: Bullish. -> Has reached EQ. Price has printed a swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. Sub-internal structure is denoted in red. Most likely scenario is for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line. Price could potentially continue to trade bullish to seek further liquidity before pullback. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: Analysis/bias remains unchanged from last Friday's analysis dated 15/03/2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed a swing BOS and subsequently a bullish iBOS. Bearish CHoCH has been printed. We are now trading within an internal range. As mentioned 11/03/2024, bearish CHoCH, which is the first structural indication, but not confirmation that bearish pullback is underway, will indicate pullback initiation has now been printed. Bearish iBOS will provide confirmation that pullback is underway. Due to the bullish nature of the market, Intraday expectation is for price to target internal high, however, all HTF's are indicating the need for a pullback, therefore, a second potential scenario could be price targeting internal low to confirm pullback is now underway. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 11 - 15 March 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Bias remains unchanged from last week's analysis dated 03/03/2024) -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. -> Did not reach EQ. Price has finally printed a bullish swing BOS Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back following swing BOS (Break Of Structure) First structural indication, but not confirmation that pullback has initiated would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a vertical blue dotted line. At some stage HTF request to LTF would be to switch bearish to facilitate HTF pullback. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. -. Sub-Internal: Bullish. -> Has reached EQ. Price has printed a swing BOS. Swing low confirmed and adjusted with swing high yet to be established. Sub-internal structure is denoted in red. Most likely scenario is for price to pull back following swing BOS. First indication, but not confirmation, would be a bearish CHOCH denoted with a vertical dotted line. Price could potentially continue to trade bullish to seek further liquidity before pullback. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a swing BOS and subsequently a bullish iBOS. We are now trading within a fractal high and internal low. Expectation is for price to pullback to H4 POI and 50% EQ, both of which are located at the same position, before targeting internal high. Bearish CHoCH, which is the first structural indication, but not confirmation that bearish pullback is underway, will indicate pullback initiation. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
A safe haven for every traderFundamental View At any time in history, if any risk enters the market, traders turn to safe areas to protect their assets. In the past few months, gold has been the best safest place for all financial risks. From recession to financial crises and recently banking problems. As a result, traders withdraw their assets from banks and keep them safe in gold. In the last week, gold grew by about 9%, and the only reason for that is the gold's paradise, traders took their money out of bankrupt banks and invested in gold. Even before the financial crisis, many analysts believed that the possibility of a pivot in FED monetary policies was imminent. Now with the bank crisis, Sooner or later, this would happen. so the conditions are set for a bullish gold market. Technical View From a technical point of view, gold is in an over-bought area and retail traders may be thinking about short on these levels of gold. but what the smart money has entered into gold is heavy long. Therefore, in the short term, before breaking the last high resistance levels, 2000 and 2070 dollars, we will probably see the price of gold in side way. On the other hand, Markets don't rises and fall like a waterfall and need a correction, but in no way is this correction suitable for selling, you should lurk and wait to buy gold at lower levels. $1946, $1911, and $1877 are the main support levels. Calendar events On Tuesday we have the Australian central bank's meeting. Wednesday is our volatile forex day. The FOMC and the FED interest rate decision will strongly impact the gold price. any sign of hawkish policy makes pressure on gold and any dovish policy pushes gold higher.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Alisabbaghi
Gold trade idea, base on US calendar data printWeekly gold analysis 📌 Key points and overview: Technical view, can range between 1730$ and 1764$ Any lower than expectations can be a helping hand for gold to rise, and any US data more than expected can be a downward pressure for downside gold. 📝 Fundamental Analysis: After the sharp rise of gold, last week we saw the correction of gold in the range of 1730 dollars. The correction was due to lower-than-expected inflation data for the United States. But after that, the re-decline of the US dollar and the retreat of US bond yields helped gold to move slightly higher and reach the $1,760 range. But for this week. In incoming week all economic data from the US are expected to be lower than the previous value. it makes the retail traders inclined to sell the dollar, and therefore in the short term we will see the growth of gold, but we have to wait for the result of the actual data. Any lower than expectations can be a helping hand for gold to rise, and any US data more than expected can be a downward pressure for downside gold. CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that markets have priced in a 70% chance of a 50bp FED rate hike in December. As a result, good economic data will have less impact on the rise of the dollar, while bad economic data can severely downward pressure for the US dollar. 📉 Technical view: From a technical point of view, gold was able to establish itself above the range of $1730. It can range between 1730$ and 1764$ Also, the price is currently trading above the moving average of 200, which shows that the bullish bias stays intact. 1705$ and 1734$-1730$ are important support levels. 1760$ and 1780$ are important resistance. 📰 Important calendar events: ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, JOB OPENINGS, HOME SALES, JOBLESS CLAIMS and ISM PMI On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish labor market data for the month of November. Non-farm payrolls (NFP) are expected to decline by 39,000 following growth of 239,000 in October. A print of less than 200,000 will likely weigh on the US dollar and push gold higher. A disappointing jobs report on Wednesday and Thursday could signal a smaller interest rate hike for the Federal Reserve. If the market has such an assessment, it will reduce the yield of US bonds, which is extremely beneficial for the rise of gold. On Thursday, the ISM Institute will release the manufacturing PMI data for November. The PMI is expected to drop to 49.8 from 50.2 in October. If the ISM PMI report shows that price pressures ease in November, the US dollar may come under selling pressure. And in this scenario, gold prices can rise in short-term reactions
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Alisabbaghi