ES Futures & Macro Trends: Key Levels and Market ScenariosCME_MINI:ES1!
Macro and Geopolitics:
There was continued news flow over the weekend after derailed talks between Trump and Zelensky. Europe, UK and Saudi Arabia are still pushing for a Russia-US-Ukraine peace deal that will likely include rare earth minerals.
We also heard Trump commenting on an executive order on digital assets strategic reserves helping reverse losses in CME BTC futures. Investors see this as a positive development prior to the upcoming Crypto Summit in Washington on March 7th.
US March 4th tariff deadlines loom for Canada, Mexico, and China. Trump repeated America's first stance commenting that border security and stopping illegal drug trades should be America’s prime focus.
Economic Calendar:
Looking ahead this week, key economic events include manufacturing PMI data on Monday, employment and services data midweek, and major central bank decisions and labor market reports toward the end of the week. Here’s a breakdown of important releases:
Monday:
Manufacturing PMI data release
Wednesday:
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Services PMI
Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday:
European Central Bank (ECB): Interest rate decision & monetary policy statement
U.S. Data:
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Jobless Claims
U.S. Trade Balance
January 2025 Imports & Exports data
Friday:
U.S. Employment Data:
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report
Average Hourly Earnings
Unemployment Rate
Federal Reserve Speakers:
Bowman & Powell scheduled to speak
ES Big Picture:
Despite increased volatility and risks mounting, looking at the daily chart shows that ES futures are still within range and trading above Nov 4th, 2024 and January 13th, 2025 low, however, 2025 mcVAH and R1 confluence has been acting as strong resistance and keeping the markets from reaching new all-time highs.
Despite the risks, our analysis suggests that with the U.S. economy showing resilience, a "buy the dip" approach remains favorable. However, staying selective and strategic with opportunities is key to balancing risk and reward.
Key Levels:
Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan.
2025 VAH: 6,150
2025 VPOC: 6,133.75
LVN: 6,113.25
Neutral Zone: 6,000 - 6,015
2025 VAL: 5,972.50
LIS/Yearly Open: 5,949.50
Neutral Zone: 5,916.50 - 5,927.25
Feb 2025 Low: 5,848
Jan 2025 Low: 5,809
Scenario 1: Range bound week
Market remains volatile, however, within the neutral zone below key LIS/yearly open and neutral zone above Key LIS/yearly open.
Scenario 2: Weak data points slowing economy
Worsening economic data points along with progress in Ukraine- US minerals deal points towards further buying. Weaker data points may provide room for further rate cuts should economic weakening further materialize.
Scenario 3: Mounting risks and weaker economic data
On the contrary, mounting risk and weaker economic data may point towards stagflation as inflation remains sticky while the economy weakens. This provides room for further decline in ES futures.
Weeklymarketsanalysis
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 3 - 7 MarchMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: ECB Rates, US NFP, Canada’s Unemployment Rate, Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode, we discuss:
- ECB Interest Rate Decision
- US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
- Unemployment Rate in Canada
- Corporate Earnings Statements
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
🌐 FXOpen official website: www.fxopen.com
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.
Gold weekly levels with buy and sell entriesGold has been making new all-time highs almost daily but are the bulls showing signs of exhaustion ?
The chart below has the levels I'll be watching this week.
See my other chart linked below for a swing trade idea for this week.
On the buy side ill look to enter at entering at 2944 expecting to hold until 2974 area, of course take profit on the way.
On the sell side ill look to enter at 2931 which nearly exactly Fibonacci 0.618 and look to hold to 2922 first and if broken then 2900 plus.
These trades are based on the higher time fram support and resistance , Fibonacci levels and trend lines .
As always when trading use proper risk management this is not a get rich quick scheme but is about making constant profit while protecting your capital.
Ill update these as the week progresses
XAU/USD 24-28 February 2025 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 09 February 2025. You will note how price has continued bullish.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had repositioned previous CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Current CHoCH positioning is quite a distance away from price, therefore, it would be viable if price continued bullish to reposition ChOCH.
Note:
It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend.
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
Swing -> Bullish.
Internal -> Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as last week's analysis dated 16 February 2025. You will note that CHoCH positioning has been brought closer to current price action. This allows for price to not pull back so deep to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Since my last weekly analysis price has printed a bullish iBOS. Bias and analysis has been accurate over the last few months.
Price is now trading within a fractal high and internal low.
Bearish ChOCH positioning is denoted with a blue shorter dotted line and is very well positioned to print bearish CHoCH which is the very first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation
Note:
With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 21 February 2025.
Price printed as per yesterday's analysis and bias.
Price has printed a bearish CHocH indicating, but not confirming bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 2,954.955
Alternative scenario:
Given HTF (Daily and Weekly) have also printed bullish iBOS' it would not come as a surprise if price printed a bearish iBOS.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 17 - 21 FebruaryMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: RBA Rates, UK and Canada’s Inflation, Metals, Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode:
- RBA Interest Rate Decision
- Canada’s Inflation Rate
- UK Inflation Rate
- Precious Metals Price Fluctuations
- Corporate Earnings Statements
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
🌐 FXOpen official website: www.fxopen.com
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.
XAU/USD 17-21 February 2025 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 09 February 2025.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had repositioned previous CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Current CHoCH positioning is quite a distance away from price, therefore, it would be viable if price continued bullish to reposition ChOCH.
Note:
It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend.
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
Swing -> Bullish.
Internal -> Bullish.
Since my last weekly analysis price has printed a bullish iBOS. Bias and analysis has been accurate over the last few months.
Price is now trading within a fractal high and internal low.
Bearish ChOCH positioning is denoted with a blue shorter dotted line and is very well positioned to print bearish CHoCH which is the very first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation
Note:
With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 11 February 2025.
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 10 February 2025 that it is highly likely price will print a bullish iBOS is how price printed.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high.
ChoCH positioning to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish and react at either discount of internal 50%, or H4 demand zone, before targeting weak internal high, priced at 2,942.780.
Alternative scenario:
Given HTF (Daily and Weekly) have also printed bullish iBOS' it would not come as a surprise if price printed a bearish iBOS.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
Ready For Next Bull run! Lets Go To 280,000BTC maintains a strong bullish trend, with the market structure consistently adhering to the Elliott Wave principles, even amid short-term fluctuations. The rounding bottom pattern remains intact, and its full impact is yet to materialize. The price has concluded sub-wave 4, and we are now anticipating the final phase to complete this minor cycle before the larger macro waves take shape.
The overarching outlook points to a surge toward $280,000, a target expected to be achieved when market sentiment is at its lowest, as institutional players and major investors continue to accumulate assets during retail sell-offs.
XAU/USD 10-14 February 2025 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had repositioned previous CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Current CHoCH positioning is quite a distance away from price, therefore, it would be viable if price continued bullish to reposition ChOCH.
Note:
It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend.
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
Swing -> Bullish.
Internal -> Bullish.
Since my last weekly analysis price has printed a bullish iBOS. Bias and analysis has been accurate over the last few months.
Price is now trading within a fractal high and internal low.
Bearish ChOCH positioning is denoted with a blue shorter dotted line and is very well positioned to print bearish CHoCH which is the very first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation
Note:
With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned in analysis dated 04 February 2025 that price could continue bullish to bring CHoCH positioning closer to recent price action. This is how price printed.
Price proceeded to print a bearish CHoCH which is in-line with previous intraday expectation.
Price is now trading within a confirmed internal range, however, I will be closely monitoring this.
You will note price has targeted weak internal high but failed to close above. This is potential liquidity grab to fuel the bearish pullback phase to facilitate HTF bearish pullback phase initiation.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish and react at either discount of internal 50%, or H4 demand zone, before targeting weak internal high, priced at 2,882.310.
Alternative scenario:
Given HTF (Daily and Weekly) have also printed iBOS' it would not come as a surprise if price printed a bearish iBOS.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
BTCUSD, Weekly AnalysisThis week, BTCUSD displayed a mix of consolidation and minor bearish momentum. After testing key resistance levels near $97,000, Bitcoin struggled to sustain upward momentum, hovering below critical resistance. Support levels at $91,000 continue to hold, while volume suggests declining interest from market participants.
Key focus points:
Resistance: $97,000 and $109,000 (long-term POC).
Support: $91,000 and $89,000.
Trendline: Downward short-term slope visible, reflecting bearish consolidation.
🔍 Short-Term:
Bitcoin is likely to trade within the $91,000–$97,000 range over the next few days. Consolidation is expected unless significant volume drives a breakout above $97,000 or a breakdown below $91,000.
🔮 Long-Term Outlook:
On the weekly and monthly charts, Bitcoin remains in an overall uptrend despite the current correction. The key level to watch is the major support around $89,000–$91,000. A bounce from here could lead to retesting $109,000. However, failure to hold this range may result in a sharper pullback toward $83,000 or $73,000.
Weekly Market Forecast: S&P, NAS & DOW Are Still Bullish!This forecast is for the week of Feb 10-14th.
The S&P500, the NASDAQ, and the DOW JONES are still bullish overall, despite last weeks NFP news that saw the markets move lower. Until there is a bearish break in market structure, it is buys all the way. Let the markets reach the buy zones and wait for the bullish market structure shift. That is the time to take valid buy setups.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Weekly Forex Forecast: GOLD & SILVER Are Bullish! BUY Them!This forecast is for the week of Feb 10-14th.
Gold and Silver are both bullish, with Gold being the stronger of the two. I am not interested in selling either until I see a bearish BOS, as the swing structure is bullish, and the trend is up. Wait until the fractal structure is aligned with the overall market structure, which would make for higher probability buys to follow the trend.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GBP/USD - Weekly Market OutlookHi all,
Last week we had a very successful week capturing 5-6 big moves all over 300Pips...
Due to the market being closed I will be doing my review of my preferred Currency Pairs.
First pair being GBP/USD -
Weekly view is Bearish
Daily View is still Bearish
Due to higher TF being Bearish I will be looking for overall sell setups.
I will be posting smaller TF analysis also on my page so be sure to follow and comment if you like the way I break down the charts
On this view being the Daily Time frame I see price has returned to a strong Supply zone, price reacted off this before climbing back up to the Supply and making another rejection. This time price gave us a Double Top giving me strong confluence of a Reversal being strong Sellers Volume, price also pushed away with a 6H Order Block BUT... price did NOT return back to this Order Block and measuring on the Fib for the OTE zone we also didn't tap into the 71% Level.
This means we cannot jump straight into a sell but I do see price having a run here so I would like to see a smaller TF pullback before looking to enter a sell Position of which I will breakdown on the page.
Hope this helps you guys and please keep up with the Support.
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 3 - 7 FebruaryMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: BoE Interest Rates, US & Canada Job Data, Corporate Earnings
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode:
- BoE Interest Rate Decision
- US Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate
- Canada Unemployment Rate
- Corporate Earnings Statements
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
🌐 FXOpen official website: www.fxopen.com
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.
XAU/USD Analysis for this week 3rd-Feb-2025 to 7th-Feb-2025According to our last analysis, gold was preparing to reach a new all-time high, which we achieved only last week. The expectation is to get a good correction from the 2830 area to 2759-2764 or 2728-2733. Both can be good long entries. The 2760 zone is good for intraday trading, but the 2730 zone can be good for swing trading with at least 1-5 RRR.
This post is for weekly analysis. Meanwhile, if a good trade is activated, I'll post it here at the same time.
kind request to all while using our analysis please do your risk calculation always.
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 27 - 31 JanuaryMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: BoC, Fed & ECB Interest Rates, PCE Price Index, Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode:
- BoC Interest Rate Decision
- Fed Interest Rate Decision
- ECB Interest Rate Decision
- US PCE Price Index
- Corporate Earnings Statements
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
🌐 FXOpen official website: www.fxopen.com
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.
XAU/USD 27-31 January 2025 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.
Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 01 December 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had positioned this CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks.
Now, for the first time since 23 November 2020, price has printed a bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within a defined internal range.
Price is anticipated to trade down towards either the discount of the internal 50% Equilibrium (EQ), highlighted in blue, or the Weekly demand zone before targeting the weak internal high.
Note:
It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend.
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
-> Swing -> Bullish.
-> Internal -> Bullish.
Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 01 December 2024
Price Action Analysis:
Price has shown a reaction from discount of internal 50% EQ. Currently price has been unable to target the weak internal high
Given the current internal range dynamics, price is expected to target weak internal high, priced at 2,790.170 However, considering the signs of a pullback phase on the Weekly timeframe, there remains a possibility of price printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). Price has yet to tap into Daily demand.
Note:
With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 21 January 2025, however, CHoCH positioning has changed, bringing it closer to current price action.
Previous analysis has been met. Following price printing bearish CHoCH, price has printed a further bullish iBOS. This has significantly narrowed the internal range.
Price did not trade into either discount of 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, however, on this occasion I will remain systematic in my approach and revisit later.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation. Bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with s blue dotted line.
It would be useful to remember that Daily TF swing and internal range are bullish.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:https://www.tradingview.com/x/tPRFgn8w/
GBPJPY 27-31 January weekly expectation.I am expecting GBPJPY to move higher this coming week sweeping the IRL and going higher to the supply zone. Price has just entered the premium zone of the daily dealing range so we can expect a retracement from the supply zone. The marked out IRL could be possible reversal points however this is unlikely. I am overall bullish for GBPJPY however i think price may retrace to the demand zone after entering the supply zone.
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 20 - 24 JanuaryMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: CAD, GBP, and JPY Markets, Gold, and Corporate Earnings
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode:
- What does the latest employment data mean for the British pound and the Bank of England’s policy direction?
- Will December’s inflation data influence the Bank of Canada’s upcoming interest rate decision? Find out how this could impact the USD/CAD pair.
- Will the BOJ raise rates again? Discover the potential impacts on the USD/JPY pair.
- Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty are driving gold prices. Learn what to watch for in XAU/USD trading.
- Big names like Netflix, 3M, Procter & Gamble, and Johnson & Johnson are releasing their quarterly results. Check their expected performance and market implications.
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
🌐 FXOpen official website: www.fxopen.com
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 13 - 17 JanuaryMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: UK & US Inflation, UK GDP Growth, Corporate Earnings Statements
We’re excited to launch our new forward-looking ‘Market Insights’ series! Hosted by FXOpen’s UK COO, Gary Thomson, this series provides a fresh perspective on global markets, highlighting upcoming economic data, geopolitical events, and central bank announcements.
In this episode:
- How could the US inflation rate influence the US dollar?
- What might UK GDP growth and inflation data mean for the struggling British pound?
- Which corporate earnings reports could drive the US stock market this week?
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
🌐 FXOpen official website: www.fxopen.com
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.
XAU/USD 13-17 January 2025 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.
Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 01 December 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had positioned this CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks.
Now, for the first time since 23 November 2020, price has printed a bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within a defined internal range.
Price is anticipated to trade down towards either the discount of the internal 50% Equilibrium (EQ), highlighted in blue, or the Weekly demand zone before targeting the weak internal high.
Note:
It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend.
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
-> Swing -> Bullish.
-> Internal -> Bullish.
Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 01 December 2024
Price Action Analysis:
Price has shown a reaction from discount of internal 50% EQ. Currently price has been unable to target the weak internal high
Given the current internal range dynamics, price is expected to target weak internal high, priced at 2,790.170 However, considering the signs of a pullback phase on the Weekly timeframe, there remains a possibility of price printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). Price has yet to tap into Daily demand.
Note:
With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 16 December 2024.
Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase.
Price Action Analysis:
Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity,
for two possible reasons.
1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high.
2. To assist Daily and H4 TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855.
Intraday Expectation:
Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
CL Week Review 01/06/25 - 01/10/25Looks like my Directional Bias for CL was off. Instead of price coming lower to fill in the BISI and take the PDLs it rallied higher through the Volume Imbalance and raided all the BSL. Now that wick higher on Friday did not stop at a random spot. Look closely and you will notice its the Premium Daily 50% CE level of the wick and price reversed nicely off from there.
Now the question remains does price justify to continue higher and take the BSL at 78.46 or does price reverse from there and then target the SSL and the D BISI?
Currently its still looking Bullish since price closed above the Volume Imbalance and the PDH from Thu Oct 10 2024 at 76.24 but lets see how price opens on Sunday and we can definitely expect a volatile week since there is a good amount of economic news drivers.