Week in a glance: negative oil prices and sad stat dataThe main event of the past week, without a doubt, was the epic failure in the oil market on Monday and the drop of May oil futures quotes into a deeply negative zone (up to - $ 50 per barrel). We wrote about the reasons for this in our reviews. The bloodbath continued on Tuesday when the world's largest oil futures ETF fund decided to reposition itself from June futures contracts into longer terms contracts.
These events spread panic not only in the oil market, but also in the financial markets in general. At the same time, our confidence in the medium-term oil purchases is still here. Given that both crashes on Monday and Tuesday were related to technical issues, our global argument did not suffer from them. It is difficult to worsen the current fundamental background for oil. But it is to improve it. So we stay in buy position.
After the shock in the oil market subsided somewhat, economic data came to the fore. Which turned out to be worse than the most pessimistic forecasts. Indices of business activity in the Eurozone, the UK and the US came out just disgusting. As well as jobless claims figures in the United States (+ another 4.4 million).
In this regard, we definitely keep on recommend to sell in the US and EU stock markets.
An additional motivation for sales is the potential second wave of the pandemic, which, apparently, even without partial removal of restrictions, begins in Germany and Spain. In any case, a sharp jump in disease after weeks of declining is a very bad signal.
After retail sales in the UK demonstrate record drop in the entire history of observations, we recommend to sell the pound not only in the EURGBP pair, but also in the GBPUSD pair. That is, this week we buy EURGBP and sell GBPUSD. EURUSD sales also seem like a good idea in light of extremely weak data on the Eurozone and Germany in particular.
Bank of Russia cut the rate by 0.5% on Friday. The event, although expected, is definitely negative for the Russian ruble. And the fact that it has not yet dropped does not cancel its inner weakness and general doom to decline. So this week we will actively buy USDRUB. With the worst outcome, this will be a good hedge for our oil purchases. In 2020, the correlation coefficient between the Russian ruble and oil is 0.98, that is, with a probability of 98% a decrease in oil prices will provoke a decrease in the ruble.
The upcoming week does not promise to be simple. The publication of US GDP for the first quarter, meetings of key global central banks (the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan), as well as a bunch of other macroeconomic statistics guarantee a surge in volatility.
Weeklymarketsanalysis
Weekly US Market Update | Week Ending on 24th of April 2020Hello everybody! Welcome to another episode of Weekly Market Update. Let's get started with the performance of the major indexes of Wall Street for the week ending on 24th of April 2020.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed on Friday with a gain of 1.11%, adding 260.01 points and closing at 23,775.27. On a weekly basis the Dow Jones had a loss of 1.93% while from the start of the year it has a loss of 16.69%.
The S&P 500 closed on Friday with a gain of 1.39% adding 38.94 points and closing at 2836.74 points. For the week the S&P 500 had a loss of 1.32% while it's YTD performance is -12.2%.
The NASDAQ Composite Index closed on Friday with a gain of 1.65% adding 139.77 points and closing at 8634.52. For the week it was down only 0.18% while from the first of the year it is only 3.77% down. As you can see the NASDAQ composite has better performance than the other two major indexes.
The current market outlook right now is that we are on an UPTREND. An Uptrend that was confirmed on 2nd of April 2020, the date that we had our follow through day. A follow through day is a day of a new rally between 4th and 7th day with a gain of 1% at least and volume higher than the previous day. On 7th of April we had a distribution day which has been deleted after the huge gain of 4% on 14th of April. A distribution day is a day when a major Index falls 0.2% or more with volume higher than the previous day.
We remain at 0 distributions days, which is a positive sign for the market. A lot of distributions days on a short term means weakness for the rally.
Personally I wouldn't be afraid if we have a pullback at our Trendline Support (1) and then the markets continue up. As we told on our previous Weekly Market update we are on 61.8% Fibonacci Level, we crossed the 50 moving average and on Friday 17th of April we saw a pinbar . So there was a 65-70% probability for the markets to have a pull back to the Trendline support as it happened. But now we have also a test at Trendline Support (2).
We remain on an UPTREND right now and we have to see if it will break the Trendline Support (2). If this happens then it may move until Trendline Support (1).
See you next week for another Weekly Market Update!
Weekly US Market Update | Week Ending on 17th of April 2020Hello everybody! Welcome to another episode of Weekly Market Update. Let's get started with the performance of the major indexes of Wall Street for the week ending on 17th of April 2020.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed on Friday with a gain of 2.99%, adding 704.8 points and closing at 24,242.5. On a weekly basis the Dow Jones had a gain of 2,21% while from the start of the year it has a loss of 15,05%.
The S&P 500 closed on Friday with a gain of 2,68% adding 75 points and closing at 2874.57 points. For the week the S&P 500 had a gain of 3,04% while it's YTD performance is -11,03%.
The NASDAQ Composite Index closed on Friday with a gain of 1.38% adding 117.8 points and closing at 8650.1. For the week it was up 6,09% while from the first of the year it is only 3,59% down. As you can see the NASDAQ composite has better performance than the other two major indexes.
The current market outlook right now is that we are on an UPTREND. An Uptrend that was confirmed on 2nd of April 2020, the date that we had our follow through day. A follow through day is a day of a new rally between 4th and 7th day with a gain of 1% at least and volume higher than the previous day. On 7th of April we had a distribution day which has been deleted after the huge gain of 4% on 14th of April. A distribution day is a day when a major Index falls 0.2% or more with volume higher than the previous day.
So we have 0 distributions days, which is a positive sign for the market. A lot of distributions days on a short term means weakness for the rally.
Personally I wouldn't be afraid if we have a pullback at our Trendline Support and then the markets continue up. As you can see on the graph we are on 61.8% Fibonacci Level, we crossed the 50 moving average and on Friday we saw a pinbar. So there is a 65-70% probability for the markets to have a pull back to the Trendline support. We have to see also the earning season. If the results are not good, the pull back has more probability to happen.
But whatever happens, we are on an UPTREND right now.
See you next week for another Weekly Market Update!
NIFTY weekly analysisNifty CMP is 8083
* If you see the weekly RSI, then it will show nearly about 15 indicates (nearly about all time low) that there is no strength is left to go further downside (Below 7500 level).
* If Nifty breaks the 7500 level then it will clearly indicates strong bear run into the market and could go around 6300 level.
* Now sudden fall in the market might not seen further as it factored previously and it may take a pause in the range of 7900-8700 levels for a long time period of 2-3 months.
* volatility in the market will reduce gradually from now and it will stabilize as clearly the chart has very small strength to go further downside and may take reversal.
* Right now nifty is standing nearly at the retracement level of 78.6% from 2016 to 2020 bull run. Already broken the so called golden ratio of 61.8%
* Nifty might go under a long sideways zone of 8500-11000 level for the next 2-3 years
* whatever the situation occurs like invention of coronavirus vaccine, then also i am not seeing the further bull run from now onward to 12500 level for the period of 1-2 years.
EUR/JPY SELL SIGNALHey tradomaniacs,
welcome to another free trade-plan.
Important: This is meant to be a preparation for you. As always we will have to wait for a breakout and confirmation.
Market Sell: 120,000
Stop-loss: 121,085
Target 1: 119,250
Target 2: 118,600
Target 3: 117,760
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
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Any questions? PM me. :-)
EUR/CAD SELL SIGNALHey tradomaniacs,
welcome to another free trade-plan.
Important: This is meant to be a preparation for you. As always we will have to wait for a breakout and confirmation of this Diamond-Pattern.
Market Sell: 1,55680
Stop-loss: 1,57600
Target 1: 1,52220
Target 2: 1,51000
Target 3: 1,48900
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
GBPUSD Buy zoneStill thinking the same about GBPUSD. Price is bouncing off WEEKLY all time lows. I wont say it's a reversal, but it's sure going to need to bounce higher for a few weeks. Even if it breaks the low, it should't go too far. With all this global drama going on, it would have fallen by now.
#AUDUSD Weekly Trading Analysis & Forecast (Educational)Traders, In this video we reset our analysis and start afresh. AUDUSD is showing us some very good moves. Also watch it till the end, I have included few important free educational tips as well. Support and motivate me by hitting the like button, subscribing to my channel and sharing this analysis with other traders.
Comment below and let me know what you think of this analysis and what is yours? I welcome all comments, feedback, ideas and sharing of knowledge.
Have a great trading week!
Weekly US Market Update / 9-15 March 2020After suffering sharp coronavirus-related losses earlier in the week, U.S. stocks soared on Friday and got an extra lift late in the session from President Trump's declaration of a national emergency. On Thursday, U.S. stock indexes suffered their biggest one-day drop since 1987’s Black Monday crash, and closed deep in bear market territory. Friday's big gains couldn't reverse all the damage from previous sessions. For the week, the S&P 500 was down 8.8%, the Nasdaq Composite was 8.2% lower, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 10.4%.
President Donald Trump has declared a national emergency under the Stafford Act, a move that will free up greater federal resources for states and cities battling the coronavirus.
The World Health Organization on Wednesday declared the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak a pandemic. The virus had infected more than 120,000 people and spread to more than 100 countries at the time of the announcement.
Oil futures plunged to a four-year low Monday and recorded their biggest one-day drop since 1991 as OPEC and Russia appear headed for an all-out price war—shaking a market already reeling from the demand shock created by global spread of Covid-19.
Whats next? Maybe we will see a short uptrend move towards 0,3882 Fibonacci Level. There is also a resistance trend line there. If the indeces fall below 7255.62 (Nasdaq 100), more downside move will appear.