Weeklymarketsanalysis
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 24th - 28th JuneEURUSD dipped lower on the second trading day last week as Draghi hinted an additional stimulus if needed.
However, the dollar has weakened so much as the Fed turned dovish and raise the expectation of a rate cut in months to come.
The price soared for 3 days and closed high before the market closes, creating another long bullish candle similar to 2 weeks ago.
Nevertheless, the upside is still quite limited and since the euro is also facing weakness of further stimulus, the price will still be somewhat tamed.
In this week, we will continue to wait for a retracement before going for a buying opportunity, the first level seen at 1.1355, followed by 1.1340.
Gold: Weekly Forecast 24th - 28th JuneThe gold price surged and broke out of close to 3 years consolidation and is heading towards a 6-year high in the coming week.
The gold has gained close to 60 dollars last week with the biggest one seen on Thursday hours after the Fed has signalled for a probable rate cut in the foreseeable future.
The market is expecting a maximum of 2, if not, 1 rate cut as early as September this year and that would potentially mean a crisis for the dollar.
As for the gold price, all losses have been recovered earlier this year and before the Fed signals for a rate cut (or holding interest rate), yet the price has climbed so fast before any rate cut.
On the monthly chart, the price can easily climb further and beyond 1500 but will meet with strong resistance at 1590.
It is almost guaranteed that gold will continue to climb for the next 3 months if the trade war persisted and global interest rate continues to edge lower.
In this week, we will wait for the price retrace lower and test 1388, followed by the demand zone at 1382 to look for a buy opportunity.
Weekly Outlook: Brent Crude forms double bottom patternBrent crude has fallen almost $15 since its 2019 peak of $75, forming a double bottom pattern which aligns with the 61.8% Fib level of the Dec 24 - Apr 25 move.
Crude inventories came in higher than expected for the last six Wednesdays, which played an important role in the $15 fall.
However, a possible escalation of tensions in the Middle East after two tankers were attacked earlier this week may support oil in the coming days.
If the double bottom pattern shows to hold, a break above $64.70 may target $67.20, followed by $70.50.
Events to Look Out for Next WeekA policy-packed week, with monetary policy meeting in the world’s major economies (Fed, BoJ, BoE), and the potential for guidance regarding future interest rate actions, albeit cuts in the prevailing rates are expected. In UK, voting race begins for the next Prime Minister. In the data-front, ficus turn on inflation and Retail sales.
Monday – 17 June 2019
Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) – The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament Treasury Committee.
Tuesday – 18 June 2019
RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA Minutes are expected to shed some light regarding an eventual rate hike (RBA is cautiously optimistic on growth, inflation).
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Prices are expected to fall in May to just 0.3%m/m from 0.7%, whilst the overall inflation expected to stand unchanged at 1.2%y/y.
ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for June is expected to rise slightly at -0.5 compared to -2.1 last month, however the negative reading means pessimists once again outnumber optimists and that escalation in US-Sino trade relations affect the outlook.
Wednesday – 19 June 2019
Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to move up in May, with overall inflation to increase at 2.2%y/y, compared to 2.1% y/y last month.
Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – May CPI is expected to run at a 2.0% y/y pace, matching the 2.0% clip in April and coming in just ahead of the 1.9% clip in March.Hence, the focus is on the "core" CPI figures.
Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) –Fed easing expectations having plateaued (Fed funds futures now fully discounting a 25 bp rate cut by the July FOMC). However, there is not much of a chance for a rate move next week, but the FOMC is anticipated to make an important change in its statement, removing the word "patient" and likely replacing it with language similar to Powell's comment from June 4 where he said the Fed will be "closely monitoring the implications of these developments" on trade and other matters.
Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 22:45) - The Q1 GDP is expected to grow at 0.7% compared to 0.6% last quarter, while at an annualised rate should fall to 1.8% from 2.3%.
Thursday – 20 June 2019
Interest Rate Decision (JPY, GMT 02:00) –The BoJ should maintain its current extraordinary level of stimulus as they wait and see how global growth progresses this year. Hence policy is expected steady once again. Among the core central banks, the BoJ is firmly poised to be "low for longest".
Interest rate Decision and Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – BoE should remain on hold now until the Brexit D-day, while the Brexit process has essentially been frozen in motion as the Conservatives go about the business of selecting a new party leader/prime minister. If the transition runs smoothly we could see another 25 bp hike quickly thereafter. The consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting and an unchanged 9-0 MPC voting.
Friday – 21 June 2019
Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30) – The Preliminary Manufacturing PMIs in Germany and Eurozone are expected to increase in June, to 44.5 and 48.1 respectively.
Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) –Canadian sales are expected to slip 1% in April, with a 0.9% gain excluding autos, following a 1.1% figure for the March headline and a 1.7% increase ex-autos.
Markit Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to increase in June, to 52.5 and 53.2 respectively.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
WEEKLY XRPUSD ANALYSIS (CONSOLIDATION BEFORE RISE)TECHNICAL:
Currently, the pattern shows we are in Level 1, after being confirmed with a break 0.46 USD Cents zone, and is now consolidating before moving upwards towards the next Peak at 0.48 Cents USD.
There is a possibility that price action might continue to consolidate downwards towards the KETCHUP (13 EMA), however, if it does that, it will most likely PIN the KETCHUP.
In my opinion, the most probable move will consolidate around the MUSTARD (5 EMA) before moving upwards to complete the Level 2 move up to 0.52 cents area.
This is before another consolidation down to the 0.48 Cents area, before a massive push upwards towards 0.58 cents, possibly even towards the $1.00+ zone at a later date.
FUNDAMENTAL:
There are a huge number of reasons why I forecast this... Here are just a few
* XRP is now being adopted and prepared to be used by some of the largest Asian banks. The SEC court case does not have any standing with banks within Asia when interbank transfers occur, outside of the USA or its jurisdictions.
Thus the sheer volume will push market pressure upwards, once the xRapid/xCurrent service is used in the real market.
* COMEX RULE 589
(NO NOTHING TO DO WITH THE 589 EOY 2018 SILLINESS)
Directly affects the price of XRP in this context, as it is rumored that XRP will be linked to the price of gold. Rumor or not, it has affected the market somewhat already and continues to do so.
* GEOMETRY: We are at the start of a Bull Market, as well as market geometry shows we are about to break out of a major triangle, towards the upside. Usually, breakouts of this magnitude (in the Weekly) will produce spectacular gains
TDI shows RSI is also at level 1 position, although we have a current RSI (at time of writing) of 49.82, coming from the lower part of the RSI map, the market has made a particular move which should show a Bounce off the Blood (which is around the same area as the KETCHUP 13 EMA on the chart), in order to complete the Level 1 marker and progress through to the Level 2 move. The move is still currently AFP (Away From Peak), until we get closer to the confirmation peak area, which was previously broken.
As RSI is in the 40s area, we can also expect continued push upwards towards 80 RSI in the coming months. Remember this is a Weekly chart, not an hourly or daily.
Next chart I will post will be the XRP DAILY, to see if we can get some synergy with both and the overall trend.
###########
DISCLAIMER:
These are my analysis, my opinion, I give no guarantees and I'm not responsible for any losses that you may occur if you trade this, whether you buy crypto or trade it in the CFD market. If you want to trade this chart, do your own analysis and make sure you have a good money management plan in place. If you want to learn more about trading, here is a good place to start: babypips dot com
I generally post my own analysis in BTMM format, although I am proficient in Crypto Patterns, Gartleys, Butterflies, Pattern Trading, Elliott Wave Trading, Pitchfork, Trendline, VSA and Price Action trading, for which I may from time to time post additional analysis including some of these other methods.
I don't answer to bullies, trolls or charlatans. If you want to genuinely debate me, post a proper analysis, but don't post a blank chart with words or claim you are a 'WE' and have some magical algorithm or secret, I will not waste my valuable time to answer you. I'm posting this chart here for my own personal record and to share with those that may appreciate it, with the hope that it can help someone better their life.
###########
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 10th - 14th JuneEURUSD had the biggest gain in 10 months and the price has broken above a 5-month falling channel and closed just above a 3-month supply zone at 1.33.
The reversal of a bearish trend came after the price found support at a 2-year demand zone and consolidated for more than a month.
We can't be certain if this is a major or a temporary reversal but without a doubt, the price is going to climb higher.
If the price retraces at first, look for buy opportunity at 1.13 and the current projection of this bullish trend should at least reach 1.15.
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 10th - 14th JuneThe dollar had the biggest fall in 6-month and the price was seen breaking below the bottom of a 4-month rising channel.
The NFP was very disappointing and a dovish Fed is starting to look at a possible rate cut based on economic data.
This is already a very clear sign of a major reversal and the dollar is actually resisted and falling from a 618 level in the weekly chart.
Following a poor NFP, the dollar is most likely to resume falling in the first 2 trading days.
The immediate supply zone is seen just below 97, with the next one seen at 97.3.
Gold: Weekly Forecast 10th - 14th JuneThe gold has led the longest gain in 3 years and now the price is at an all-time high.
The price has climbed for 7 consecutive days and resistance has been seen rejecting the price from the top of a 35-month symmetrical triangle.
The current wave of a bullish trend was the 2nd and the longest one since the rebound and will likely face with retracement soon.
The first immediate support is seen at 1336 which could lead to the continuation of another higher low and retest the high.
If 1336 fails to hold the price, a major retracement shall begin and first demand zone is seen at 1320.
BTC ON THE WEEKLY Looking at BTC on the weekly we can get a good idea of where the price may head to.
The RSI has been overbought which has not happened since the last bull run.
We should see strong support at 38 fibs
IMO we may head back down to the 50.0 fibs which would line up with the over trend and make for a healthy bounce form there.
ENJOY
Events to Look Out For Next WeekBy Andria Pichidi - June 1, 2019
Trade and geopolitics will continue to dominate the headlines into June along with PM May’s official resignation on Friday. Top of the agenda next week will be the RBA and ECB policy meetings, but a lot of attention will also be on the contemporaneous data on the May US Jobs report, the global PMI outcomes and the European Q1 GDP.
Monday – 03 June 2019
[* ]Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to slip into the neutral zone in May, after the weak Manufacturing PMI signalled contraction yesterday.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to rise to 53.5 in May from 52.8 in April, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August. Overall, we’ve seen a stabilization in sentiment since the late-2018 pullback.
Tuesday – 04 June 2019
Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Retail sales are expected to come out lower, standing at 0.2% m/m in April, after drifting to 0.3% increase in March from the 0.9% high in February.
Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 04:30) –A 25 bp reduction to 1.25% is anticipated from the current 1.50% rate setting as the RBA adds accommodation amid a slowing economy and low inflation. The minutes from the early May policy review were dovish-leaning, adding to the expectation that rates will be reduced in June.
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for May is expected to drop back to 1.4% y/y from 1.7%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 1.3% y/y.
Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT N/A)
Wednesday – 05 June 2019
Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The Gross Domestic Product figure is probably the most important economic data announcement for a country, closely followed by the unemployment rate. The final Q1 Australian GDP is expected to grow to 0.3% from 0.2%.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to edge up to 55.7 in April from a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September.
Thursday – 06 June 2019
Event of the week – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR, GMT 11:45) – The ECB is widely expected to keep policy rates on hold at the June council meeting, but the presser is likely to be very dovish, with the guidance on rates likely to be pushed well into 2020. The details on the new TLTRO programme are also due to be released and are likely to be generous, but rate tiering doesn’t seem to be on the agenda for now, as the assessment of the possible side effects on negative interest rates continues.
Friday – 07 June 2019
Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – Along with Thursday’s employment data, payrolls are important in gauging how many people are employed in non-agricultural businesses. Jobs are expected to have increased in May, at 190k following a 263k increase in April. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, while average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%.
Employment and Unemployment (CAD, GMT 12:30) – After the 106.5k surge in April employment, which notched a new all-time record 1-month gain, the Canadian unemployment rate is expected to have increased further in May.
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Gold: Weekly Forecast 3rd - 7th JuneThe gold has made strong gains in the last 2 trading days and finally broke a new high first time in more than 3 months.
Also, this marks the 4th consecutive weekly depreciation for the US stocks, with the most recent week being the weakest week.
With the dollar being rejected and fell from the high and the US stock market continues to plunge, it clearly shows that the gold stands a good chance to climb further.
In this week, the gold is most likely to climb and test the 618 level of the falling wedge.
The price may find some resistance and drop but would most likely be temporary and the price will rise again.
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 3rd - 7th JuneEURUSD fell through last week but rebounded off strongly at the bottom of the current range at 1.1120.
It is also a second rebound from a previously broken falling trendline.
In this week, we expect the price to continue to climb towards the top of the range near 1.1260.
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 3rd - 7th JuneThe dollar climbed in the first 4 trading days and attempted to break new high above 98.3, only to find itself rejected and plunged.
The strong bearish candle on the last trading day was enough to wipe out all gains.
In this week, it is almost inevitable for the dollar to fall further and will most likely retest the demand zone right below 97.3.
US Dollar Currency Index / W / Weekly Forex Analysis / 6.2.2019Hello Traders, welcome to the Weekly Forex technical analysis. Today is June 2nd, 2019 and we will be taking a look at the U.S. Dollar Currency Index on the weekly chart just to get into the calendar, and have an outlook into the upcoming week. Looking at the Dollar Index here on a weekly time frame, overall the structure still remains pretty bullish as long as were above the 97.465 support and resistance area. We also had the talk of additional tariffs going against Mexico, which could certainly trigger this to move upwards towards the 98.687 resistance area. If we break above the 98.6 area look for the next target area which would be 99.451 support and Resistance zone. If the DXY starts to lose momentum and turn bearish by losing the 97.465 area, we would be looking for a retrace back to the 96.493 region.
EDUCATIONAL Hi Guys,
I hope you've all had a good week and caught some decent pips. The market this week has been one of the worst conditions we have seen in a long time in terms if how slow some of the pairs have been moving and manipulation.
Overall we have still managed to catch over 100+ pips. However, please note that I will stick to mainly posting GBP pairs from now on as you can see from the ideas posted how precise the entries and targets have been.
Next week we should see much more movement and clearer opportunities and hopefully we can continue to kill the market and make some good profit.
Subscribe to my page as you don't want to miss out on the coming weeks.
I would love to know your thoughts in the comments section.
Have a great weekend traders!
Gold: Weekly Forecast 27th - 31st MayThe gold has failed another attempt to break new low and rebounded off strongly which led to a 2-days again.
The strong rebound by a strong bullish candle also shows a second break-above of the 3-month falling wedge.
The price is expected to climb further towards the current supply zone at 1296.
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 27th - 31st MayEURUSD has made an attempt to break new low as it tested its previous low at 1.1110.
The price rebounded off strongly from the previous low as well as from a previously broken falling trendline.
The bull is strong now and in this week, we do expect the price to climb further and test the top of its current range at 1.1250.
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 27th - 31st MayThe dollar was somewhat consolidating at the beginning and suddenly it attempted to break new high.
The price went slightly above the previous high at 98.3 but immediately got rejected by strong selling pressure.
This is somewhat quite expected of the dollar whenever it attempts to break a new high.
The situation where the U.S. economy is in surely isn't one that favours a stronger dollar, one that is in the midst of a trade war.
In this week, we do expect the dollar to fall further and test the bottom of its current range at 97 where it will probably just continue to trade within the range.
EOS/ETH Long Entry banking on 20DMA rebound (weekly)On my last post EOS/ETH was in overbot territory on the weekly and I was looking to add more on weakness.
The Bull Case:
Since then the pair experienced a reversion to 20DMA, STO back to the mid-area (no surprise!).
IMO the current setup could be a good entry point risk/reward-wise. Looking for a rebound on 20DMA. With a potential Exit ITM before meeting the upper band of John B!
+ factor in Some major announcements to come on June 1st from Block.one, the firm behind EOSIO and which ICO-ed the EOS token. This could play as a catalyst for an period of speculation/readjustment of expectations around D-day.
Downside Potential:
I would work this config with a tight Stoploss, Risk/reward 1:3 with a QUICK Exit if no spike up after the announcements. There is a potential of being drained by the forming divergence on the MACD.
This is just a statement of opinion and should not be construed as financial advice.
EOS/ETH Long on Potential rebond on 2WMAOn my last post EOS/ETH was in overbot territory on the weekly and I was looking to add more on weakness.
The Bull Case:
Since then the pair experienced a reversion to 20WMA, STO back to the mid-area (no surprise!).
IMO the current setup could be a good entry point risk/reward-wise. Looking for a rebound on 20WMA. With a potential Exit before meeting the upper band of John B!
+ factor in Some major announcements to come on June 1st from Block.one the firm behind EOSIO and which ICO-ed the EOS token. This could play as a catalyst for an period of speculation/readjustment of expectations around D-day.
Downside Potential:
I would work this config with a tight Stoploss, Risk/reward 1:3 with a QUICK Exit if no spike up after the announcements. There is a potential of being drained by the forming divergence on the MACD.
This is just a statement of opinion and should not be construed as financial advice.
US Dollar Currency Index / W / Weekly Forex Analysis / 5.19.2019Hello Traders, welcome to the Weekly Forex technical analysis. Today is May 19th, 2019 and we will be taking a look at the U.S. Dollar Currency Index on the weekly chart just to get into the calendar, and have an outlook into the upcoming week. Looking at the Dollar Index here on a weekly time frame, we can see we got a minor correction and finally it moved back above the 97.465 support and resistance area, with a strong weekly close above this area. Going into this next week of 5/20/2019, we will be looking for the Dollar Index to follow through and continue to strengthen a bit more an target the 98.687 resistance area. On the over hand if we fail to move higher and turn bearish we would be looking to retrace back to the 96.493 support area.
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 20th - 24th MayJust like the dollar, and since EURUSD has been moving in harmony with the dollar this week, EURUSD has clearly turned bearish after breaking below the key level of 1.1173 after the break below a rising trendline.
And all indicators such as MACD, moving averages and Bollinger band has pointed toward a bearish trend in the week to come.
Therefore in this week, we are setting a bearish tone for the EURUSD and expecting the price to fall further and test the previous low or break new low.
Should the price retrace at first, we will look for sell opportunity at the supply one right above 1.1200.
