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Weeklyoutlook

22/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $68,476.68 Last weeks low: $60,656.67 Midpoint: 64,566.67 On my last weekly outlook I commented on the nature of the weeks rally and how it began at weekly low and finished the week at weekly high. The same thing happened almost identically this time with a weekly low of just above $60,000 rallying +13% to reach just shy of the '21 ATH at $69,000. The recent run of price increases comes after the German Government sold over SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:3B worth of BTC pushing price down. Having now run out of BTC to sell the momentum has shifted and the net inflows have now been consistent ever since. With the presidential race now in the business end of the race, Trump is scheduled to be at the Bitcoin Conference in the 27th this month and there is There is "speculation that Trump may announce the establishment of a U.S. bitcoin strategic reserve". A pro crypto president of the USA would no doubt bring great interest and innovation to the country in the future but also brings about a new element of FOMO to sideliners and doubters of crypto's legitimacy. I can only predict this is a good thing between now and November at the very least ramping up exponentially as we nearer the election date. This week it's all eyes on the Bitcoin Conference, and also monitoring the progress of the Ethereum ETF. BTC has lead the recovery charge with altcoins still lagging a little behind as focus has once again shifted back towards the majors after a heavy sell off.
by ProR35
15/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $61,431.5 Last weeks low: $54,288.74 Midpoint: $57,860.12 Last week BTC had a strong rally from the beginning of the week by printing the low in the first hour, and then closing at the weekly high at the very last hours on Sunday, a +13% climb over the 7 days. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) results came in very positive with a better than forecast result. CPI (YoY): FORECAST: 3.1% ACTUAL: 3.0% The Producer Price Index (PPI) results came in higher than forecast. PPI (MoM): FORECAST: 0.1% ACTUAL:0.2% Despite a positive CPI and negative PPI the chart reacted in an opposite direction to how we would expect. Eventually after Friday's PPI results the MIDPOINT of the range got flipped and has been rallying ever since. Usually a weekend pump is not something to be trusted alone, the lower volume can often paint a false picture and because of this the Monday close is very important. Should Mondays close be above the last weeks high I think this could be a catalyst for flipping the Bearish trend back to Bullish. Another indicator of a trend change is the 4H 200 EMA which has now been broken and awaits confirmation of acceptance above, again this leads into the Mondays close being key. Close above $61,500 = BULLISH Bounce and reclaim of both 1D & 4H 200EMAs, set up nicely for HTF continuation of Bullrun. Close below $61,500 = BEARISH A swing fail of last weeks high could also imply a rejection off 4H 200EMA and continuation of the chop/ LTF downtrend.
by ProR35
2
08/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $63,884.22 Last weeks low: $53,536.87 Midpoint: 58,710.54 A continuation of BTC selling off has lead to a loss of nearly $10,000 from Bitcoins price from high to low. This sell off is mostly propelled by large selling pressure caused by the German Government selling, however they still have $2.2B of BTC to sell and Mt.Gox begin repayments of stolen funds from 2014 causing increased selling pressure. From a TA standpoint BTC is still LTF bearish, but the interesting part is the HTF's as BTC is retesting the 1D 200EMA as resistance since breaking below it last week. In a Bullrun you really don't want to see too much time spent under the 1D 200EMA, it should really act as strong support and a place to add to LONG positions. This week I would like to see the Bullish OB+ @ $52,000 tagged before making a judgment on where BTC is going next. It's a strong support area that will attract price too it, TA says this is a good area to go LONG but this is definitely not a blind bid environment. It also happens to be a 30% drop from ATH which has been a common Bullrun correction in the past. This week my focus is on the ETH ETF updates, the S-1 forms rumoured to be due tomorrow, then it's down tot the SEC to turn them around. ETH is around $3000 with sentiment at yearly lows, definitely an opportunity there. Also the BTC1D 200EMA is a point of contention and an important S/R level.
by ProR35
01/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $63,700.01 Last weeks low: $58,451.16 Midpoint: $61,075.58 Q2 ENDS - Q3 BEGINS After a rough quarter of sideways chop, ranging between ~$56K-73K it's safe to say that the last 3 months has been a tough one for the crypto markets. Despite the frustration with price it's important to realise the positive elements of the last quarter. The ETH ETF approval, THE HALVING, consolidation at the '21 ATH level are all bullish for the industry as a whole. As the weekly, monthly and quarterly all close, July 1st almost feels like a new chapter, one that needs to begin strong. Last week we saw BTC dip to the 1D 200EMA for the first time this calendar year. This is not uncommon in a Bullrun, a bounce off that moving average while it is trending up is often a good R:R entry level for a HTF position. This lines up well with how last week played out and until price breaks below the moving average and changes its trend direction, I do not believe we have reason to panic. As the first few trading hours of the new quarter have completed we can see that there is a clear S/R level at the 0.75 range line that was flipped, I would like to see a positive reaction off any retest of that level. As I stated before starting a new quarter positively can have a positive impact. Staying above $62,400 is important in the short term, $65,000 is resistance and an important S/R zone. In the altcoin market tomorrow is an exciting day as the ETH ETF goes live , we've seen what an ETF can do with BTC and potentially the same thing can happen with ETH, the difference in my opinion is that institutions and larger investors were all expecting the BTC ETF to be approved when it did. However, I do not believe that those same players expected ETH ETF's to be approved as soon as they did. It is no secret that the SEC has been arguing that Ethereum is a security and therefor comes under the SEC's regulatory power which was always a point of contention and made ETF approval unlikely. Now that the probe has been dropped by the SEC and they have relinquished power over the cryptocurrency, the ETF is set to go live and I believe the big players just weren't prepared for this to happen so quickly hence the delay in price movement comparable to BTC. We shall see if this delayed response continues as trading goes live but I have no doubt that over the long term this is a net positive for ETH and the altcoin market. In the broader alt space we can see clear signs of seller exhaustion . BTC dropped 10% last week and most alts didn't react anywhere near as negatively as this move usually does. That to me is a clear sign that sellers are all sold out and that buyers are happy to DCA in at these levels to balance price. This week I am keeping an eye on those altcoins that outperformed BTC last week on their BTC pairs with good fundamentals as these alts will perform the best on the next rally. ETHEREUM ETF trading is the main talking point of the week and I will be monitoring that closely. GOOD LUCK FOR Q3
by ProR35
2
24/06/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $67,290.83 Last weeks low: $62,212.60 Midpoint: $65,251.72 Despite the seemingly endless chop, last week was a very interesting one for BTC. Micro strategy added ~$800 worth of Bitcoin to their balance sheet, putting them at 226,000BTC, just over 1% of the entire BTC supply that will ever exist! In relation to microstrategy, Michael Dell has been sending some cryptic tweets reacting to the news that Saylor has added even more to their balance sheet. “Scarcity creates value” was his response. With the news that Dell is potentially buying or looking to buy Bitcoin it’s strange that BTC has dropped in price overall with overall sentiment in the space being very negative. As we continue to slowly sell off and alt oins continue to get destroyed in both their stable and BTC pairs, I would like to see a clear capitulation wick with obvious strength on the bounce. It’s hard to say at what level that will come to, many are calling for GETTEX:52K which is a clear Bullish OB+, so it could be there however that would be devastating for all alt coins and may/probably have a bearish effect on the launch of the ETH ETF which is coming in the near future, 1/2 weeks. For this week it’s purely about survival and looking for signs of capitulation, max fear and showing of strength following any potential sell offs. A slow bleed down within a range is very hard to catch the bottom but it would be better to see clear signs of reversal.
by ProR35
17/06/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $70,207.85 Last weeks low: $65,079.20 Midpoint: $7,643.52 Bitcoin over the last week is in a clear downtrend, despite midweek volatility caused by the CPI & FOMC news events. The results of those news events overall were positive and we saw the reaction of that with a move from 0.25 level to range high. Yet price rejected yet again from the '21 ATH / range high levels before printing Lower highs and Lower lows making BTC LTF bearish. Altcoins are being destroyed during this chop, clear downtrends sub 4H 200EMA and a lot are retesting their 1D 200EMA levels for the first time in months. Only a handful of well performing exceptions are surviving but even they are running out of steam e.g. LSE:ONDO , LSE:TON , $JASMY. I think I could see a sweep of the previous weeks low, before we see any sort of rebound and aim for MIDPOINT. The 4H 200EMA is sat at just below MIDPOINT and so there is huge resistance there, a rejection of that level continues the LTF downtrend. This week I am continuing to monitor the Bullish Divergences that are appearing on the 4H & 1D and looking for any clear reversal in trend direction. For now I cannot see what catalyst would be responsible for turning this price action bullish, but that is what my focus is on, until then this is a no trade environment in my opinion.
by ProR35
3
10/06/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $71,199.84 Last weeks low: $67,611.61 Midpoint: $69,801.22 Chop, chop and some more chop for Bitcoin. A steady a climb for BTC last week from range lows made at the beginning of the week with a high just shy of $72K before freefalling to the 0.25 line which coincides with the '21 ATH level l, and a bounce back up to the midpoint which is currently LTF resistance. The altcoin market is looking in pretty rough shape in comparison to BTC, many have halved since their highs and are now retesting their 1D 200EMA's for support. In a Bullrun you'd expect these levels to hold and can offer great Long entries, I'd like to see BTC show strength above the '21 ATH because if we see another drop below alts will follow and once below the 1D 200EMA we could be in trouble for a while. For this week I am looking at potential alt longs at the 1D 200EMA levels but being very aware of Bitcoins price. No trade if BTC is below SWB:69K as that would be yet another failed ATH run, and would look to target lower down in the chop range.
by ProR35
03/06/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $70,741.40 Last weeks low: $68.714.79 Midpoint: $66,688.18 As we enter the Midway point in the calendar year BTC finds itself continuing to battle its '21 ATH. For many weeks now we've seen this key S/R level flipping from support to resistance and vice versa, will we finally see a breakout move above this week? Although for the last few weeks the general attention has been focused on the ETH ETF, now that that is over and had a bullish turnout the market is looking for BTC to lead the way. Price is now above the 4H 200EMA, Post-halving supply shock effecting tokenomics positively in terms of supply and demand and currently breaking down the previous cycles high. Given all that in mind I think the patient will be rewarded as I think when BTC does get a clear run, most likely when Greyscale stop selling at a rate that causes outflows to overcome inflows. Top buyers sell pressure is relieved as holders who were underwater all bear market sell their positions and give way to buyers with high conviction. Then we will see BTC target $80K, only a matter of time. This week I am focusing on BTC strength and signs of a breakout, I would say that once BTC breaks out, ETH will break above $4K and target ATH @ $4.8K. Things to look out for is any US news that could effect the markets; law making, Veto's etc. Hopefully you had a good first half of 2024 and good luck for the second half!!
by ProR35
27/05/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $71,999.47 Last weeks low: $69,028.57 Midpoint: $66,057.66 After a historical week for the crypto space with the ETH ETF approval has meant that BTC has taken somewhat of a backseat. Currently battling with the '21 ATH at SWB:69K while ETH is beginning to pic up strength in the ETH/BTC pair and take volume away from Bitcoin. Ethereum has been a relatively slow mover in comparison to some of the rest of the altcoin market. However, now that the ETFs are approved and it is to be expected that ETH will have huge Inflows just as BTC did with a >50% increase since approval. All this means that I could see BTC fighting the '21 ATH for sometime while the altcoin market and mostly ETH will take the spotlight for the next week at least. SWB:69K lines up well with the weekly range Midpoint and that's the key battle for BTC, so far this Bullrun we've seen BTC lead the way generally, could it be time for ETH to take over? This week I think ETH and ETH beta plays (OP, ARB, LDO, METIS etc) are the ones to watch, I would be cautious when it comes to Longing ETH blindly at this level, yes the massive demand increase will help price rise but as we saw with BTC after ETF approval, price did drop 18% over two weeks post approval. I'm not saying this will definitely happen with ETH, so far despite an initial 10% whipsaw price has stayed generally the same with a slight move up, however It is worth noting.
by ProR35
20/05/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $67701.33 Last weeks low: $64227.62 Midpoint: $60753.92 We have lift off... maybe? Bitcoin has spent the last 2 months chopping between the low $70K's and high $50K's after a strong rally. However, it looks like strength has returned at least for now in BTC after the CPI print of Wednesday last week. This volatility influx moved BTC back above the 4H 200EMA which has been the all important level in determining the Mid - Low time frame trend. Now that price is back above I think the general sentiment would be to be more risk on, especially in terms of leverage than we've seen in the last few weeks. Not necessarily saying this is an ideal entry, just I think more confidence is returning to Bitcoin. The altcoin market on the other hand with exception to a few top performers is lagging behind BTC, and that can be seen by the Bitcoin dominance at 56% currently and targeting local highs. For altcoins to begin reclaiming some of their loses we'd need BTC to get back above the '21 high of $69K. Also, we have the ETH ETF approval deadline for VanEck and ArkInvest/ 21Shares on the 23rd &24th May respectively. Coinbase believes the odds of approval are closer to 30-40% so it would be a shock if these ETF's were approved by the SEC, however, if they were to be approved this could help kickstart the altcoin market again. For this week it's about seeing if BTC can capitalise on last weeks progress and target the '21 ATH. The purple trendline needs to be respected on the way up otherwise I think we'll retest the MIDPOINT or even the 0.25 area.
by ProR35
13/05/24 Weekly outlookAre you getting bored yet? Another week of chop has elapsed, and in short there is not much else to say on the surface. BTC took out it's previous weeks high and then retraced roughly half of the progress made, filling the FVG left behind by the local move up and creating our range low for this week. As it so often does, the range perfectly shows the levels of which price action moves throughout the week. We had $1.1B worth of options expire on May 10th last week which gave BTC it's volatility on Friday creating the weeks low and creating an FVG. I believe it makers sense for price to work towards filling that FVG and retesting the MIDPOINT resistance. If price rejects then next stop is range low, if price accepts higher then range high is the target, simple as that on LTF. In terms of the broader market, the ETF battle is still being won by the bearish GBTC Greyscale as their continued outflow of BTC with a outflow of $43M vs the net inflow of the 11 other US BTC spot ETFs totalling $32M . Resulting in a net outflow pf $11M The altcoin market continues to weaken as BTC continues to chop, risk off on leverage continues until BTC can confidently regain the 4H 200EMA , until then spot and hold .
by ProR35
06/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,741.58 Last weeks low: $56,573.01 Midpoint: $60,657.29 As April comes to a close, BTC post it's first red candle on the monthly for the first time since August of last year, that's exactly 7 months of green candles until now. From a TA standpoint it comes as no surprise, BTC hit and surpassed the previous ATH, it was clear we would meet resistance at this level as is often the case whenever a coin reaches it's previous ATH. Now that the monthly close back under the 69K level that confirms a Swing Fail Pattern (SFP) which is HTF bearish, the first bearish confirmation we've seen on the HTF for quite some time, the first signs of exhaustion in the rally. We are now in the "post halving" section of the Bullrun which we know has huge bullish potential, however in the short term Bitcoin is looking more bearish than it has done this year. Altcoins have already taken a huge hit, probably worse off than was expected if BTC pulled back and a lot of alts are in oversold territory . For any strength to return to the altcoin market BTC needs to return to strength and for that to happen all eyes are on the ETF inflows/outflows. For this week I would be surprised if we saw anything other than further chop. The 4H 200EMA is still resisitance for now, a reclaim and acceptance above that level would be a bullish signal for continuation higher, until then building long term SPOT positions/DCA'ing on alts may be a good idea as prices are down 15-25% from their local highs. Leverage trading would require being very nimble to dip in and out of trading both sides.
by ProR35
29/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $67244.99 Last weeks low: $62406.59 Midpoint: $64825.79 As Bitcoin continues it's multi-week sideways chop , there really isn't a great deal to talk about in terms of price action other than it's extremely boring and potentially dangerous. I say dangerous because it's this kind of chop that separates the impatient and the patient. Trading price action like this especially using leverage is bound to end poorly as both long and short sides get caught up in a serious of stop hunts. The only trades that could be made are the extremes of the range that are set. There is some hope however, the HONG KONG ETF's for BTC &ETH go live from tomorrow (30th April) . This could bring in-flows that have been missing in recent weeks as BlackRock and co. have dramatically lowered their in-flows and Greyscale continues to dump. Perhaps this new demand can absorb some of the Greyscale outflows? Or maybe it will be a non-event? We will keep a close eye on this throughout the week. There are also rumours that Australia will join the ETF movement too in the future. The general Altcoin market is currently in a very oversold condition , having said that the relief bounce does not look to be in sight anytime soon, no point trying to catch a falling knife, if anything focus on DCA'ing (Dollar cost averaging) into strong projects but with a long term outlook. Narratives such as RWA, AI, DePIN etc. In the short term all eyes are on last weeks low and if it can be reclaimed, if not 58K area is on the cards.
by ProR35