Get started

Weeklyrecap

post market analysis/Trade recap 6/28/24Market Recap: Great technical analysis this week with my predictions in the market. Yesterday my levels of: 5583.00 (bullish) & 5518.50 (bearish) were almost spot on. Price went bullish to the level of: 5584.25 Price retreated back to the levels of: 5518.25 Trades Recap: Not so solid on the trade entries as I got faked out, not seeing the gap being filled rather than an anty setup. That is okay, however soon after I also missed a real Anty setup. It could have been a much better trading day but all in all I am not upset and feeling good for next week. Sunday I will be posting an analysis for the following week and potential levels to be looking out for. These are levels that I believe have merit and strength.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SirBlob
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders! Forex Weekly Recap for 18–22 September, 2023: Fundamentals The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the Meeting Minutes of its September meeting. Key notes were: They considered raising rates by 25 basis points or holding rates at the September meeting. The economy still appears to be on a narrow path by which inflation returns to target and employment grows. They are concerned about productivity growth not picking up as anticipated and service inflation remaining an issue. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) Villeroy hinted that the ECB has currently finished hiking; other key mentions from him were: The ECB will maintain interest rates at 4% for a sufficiently long time. The current ECB rates are at a good level; it is better to be patient now. Once inflation is back to around 2%, rates can start to fall again. The Bank of Canada released the minutes of its September meeting. Key notes were: The lack of improvement in underlying inflation is a major worry. They anticipate that rising oil and gasoline prices will push inflation up in the coming months. The balance between economic supply and demand will play a pivotal role in determining future core and total inflation. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25% to 5.50%, as expected. At the following press conference, Fed Chair Powell spoke, and key notes from him were: Growth in real GDP has come in above expectations. Labour demand still exceeds supply. Expects labour market rebalancing to continue, easing upward pressure on inflation. Inflation remains well above their long-term goal of 2%. Getting inflation down to the 2% target still has a long way to go. The Fed is prepared to raise rates further if appropriate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left interest rates unchanged at 1.75%, which came as a surprise as the market expected a 25 basis point hike to 2%. The Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, which also came as a surprise as the market expected a 25 basis point hike to 5.50%. The bank vote also came as a surprise, as the bank vote was 4-5 vs. 8-1 expected (Bailey, Broadbent, Dhingra, Pill, and Ramsden voted to hold). Key Data New Zealand Services PMI came in worse at 47.1 vs. 48.0 prior. The US Housing Starts data came in worse, while Building Permits came in better. Housing Starts came in worse at 1.238M vs. 1.440M expected and 1.447M prior (revised from 1.452M). Building permits came in better at 1.543M vs 1.443M expected and 1.442M prior. The UK CPI came in worse across the board: CPI Y/Y came in worse at 6.7% vs. 7.0% expected and 6.8% prior. CPI M/M came in worse at 0.3% vs. 0.7% expected and -0.4% prior. Core CPI Y/Y came in worse at 6.2% vs. 6.8% expected and 6.9% prior. Core CPI M/M came in worse at 0.1% vs. 0.6% expected and 0.3% prior. The New Zealand Q2 GDP came in better across the board: GDP Q2 Y/Y came in better at 1.8% vs. 1.2% expected and 2.2% prior. GDP Q2 Q/Q came in better at 0.9% vs. 0.5% expected and 0% prior (revised from 0.1%). The US jobless claims came in better across the board: Initial claims came in better at 201K vs. 225K expected and 221K prior (revised from 220K). Continuing claims came in better at 1662K vs. 1695K expected and 1683K prior (revised from 1688K). The Australian Manufacturing PMI came in worse; however, the Services PMI came in better. Manufacturing PMI came in worse at 48.2 vs. 49.6 prior. Services PMI came in better at 50.5 vs. 47.8 prior. The Japanese CPI came in mixed across the board: Japan CPI Y/Y came in worse at 3.2% vs. 3.3% prior. Japan Core CPI Y/Y came in better at 3.1% vs. 3.0% expected and 3.1% prior. The UK August retail sales came in worse across the board: Retail sales Y/Y came in worse at -1.4% vs. -1.2% expected and -3.1% prior (revised from -3.2%). Retail Sales M/M came in worse at 0.4% vs. 0.5% and -1.1% prior (revised from -1.2%). German PMIs came in better across the board: Manufacturing PMI came in better at 39.8 vs. 39.5 expected and 39.1 prior. Services PMI came in better at 49.8 vs. 47.2 expected and 47.3 prior. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in mixed across the board: Manufacturing PMI came in worse at 43.4 vs. 44.0 expected and 43.5 prior. Services PMI came in better at 48.4 vs. 47.7 expected and 47.9 prior. The UK Services PMI came in mixed across the board: Manufacturing PMI came in better at 44.2 vs. 43.0 expected and 43.0 prior. Services PMI came in worse at 47.2 vs. 49.2 expected and 49.5 prior. Technicals A mixed week for the forex majors, a bad week for GBP, especially with another week of worse-than-expected data leading to more weakening for the currency. AUDUSD 1W Chart AUDUSD held strong above the support level at the yearlow low and is trading comfortably above the 0.64000 area. The market briefly went above the 0.65000 area, which has not been seen since the end of August. USDJPY 1W Chart USDJPY is quickly approaching 150. The market is now trading just above the 148 level. The 150-level line lines up perfectly with the top of the ascending channel. EURUSD 1W Chart EURUSD is still continuing to head downwards after the support break of the rising wedge. A doji candle has formed on the 1W, which signals indecision, so we must be wary of this. GBPUSD 1W Chart GBPUSD is continuing its bearish momentum after the wedge support break. The next support area is around the 1.22000 level. The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be: Monday: German IFO. Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence Wednesday: Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes, Australia Monthly CPI, US Durable Goods Orders Thursday: Australia Retail Sales, US Q2 Final GDP, US Jobless Claims Friday: Japan Tokyo CPI, Japan Unemployment Rate, Japan Retail Sales, UK Q2 Final GDP, Eurozone CPI, Canada GDP, US Core PCE We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week. Best of luck for the upcoming trading week. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
5
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders! Forex Weekly Recap for 11–15 September, 2023: Fundamentals Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Governor Ueda stated that his focus is on a "quiet exit" to avoid significant impacts on the market. Other key mentions from him were: They could have enough data by year's end to determine whether they can end negative rates. The BOJ will patiently maintain an ultra-loose policy. Wage increases are beginning to push up service prices. The key is whether wages will keep rising next year. Bank of England’s Mann noted that she prefers to use Economic Rates of Return (ERR) on the side of overtightening; other key mentions from her were: If she is wrong and inflation and the economy drop more significantly, she wouldn't hesitate to cut rates. We all need to prepare for a world where inflation is more likely to be volatile. The European Central Bank (ECB) hiked interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, bringing the interest rate to 4.00% vs. 3.75% prior. At the press conference, President Lagarde highlighted the slowing of the Eurozone economy. Other key mentions from her were: Rates will remain at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary. Rates were hiked to 'reinforce commitment to our target'. The economy is likely to remain subdued in the coming months. In the coming months, inflation will fall. Key Data The UK August Payroll came in worse at -1K vs. 30K expected and -4K prior (revised from 97K): The July unemployment rate came in as expected at 4.3%, up from 4.2% prior. July employment change came in worse at -207k vs. -185k expected and -66k prior. The German September ZEW survey came in worse at -79.4 vs. -75.0 expected and -71.3 prior. The Japanese PPI came in better month over month and came in as expected year over year. PPI M/M came in better at 0.3% vs. 0.1% expected and 0.1% prior. PPI Y/Y came in as expected at 3.2% and 3.4% prior (revised from 3.6%). The UK monthly GDP came in worse at -0.5% vs. -0.2% expected and 0.5% prior. The US CPI came in better year on year and came in as expected month on month: CPI Y/Y came in better at 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected and 3.2% prior. CPI M/M came in expected at 0.6% and 0.2% prior. The Australian August Jobs Report came in better across the board. Employment change came in better at 64.9K vs. 23.0K expected and -14.6K prior. Full-time employment came in better at 2.8K vs. -24.2K prior. Part-time employment came in better at 62.1K vs. 9.6K prior. The unemployment rate came in as expected at 3.7% (same as prior). The US jobless claims beat expectations across the board. Initial Claims: 220K vs. 225K expected and 217K prior (revised from 216K). Continuing Claims: 1688K vs. 1695K expected and 1684K prior (revised from 1679K). The US retail sales came in mixed across the board: Retail sales M/M came in better at 0.6% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.5% prior (revised from 0.7%). Retail sales Y/Y came in worse at 2.5% vs. 2.6% prior (revised from 3.2%). The US August PPI came in better across the board: PPI Y/Y came in better at 1.6% vs. 1.2% expected and 0.8% prior. PPI M/M came in better at 0.7% vs. 0.4% expected and 0.4% prior (revised from 0.3%). The New Zealand Manufacturing PMI came in worse at 46.1 vs. 46.6 prior. Technicals There was a strong end to the week for the US dollar after a slow start to the week against its major counterparts. AUDUSD 1W Chart AUDUSD again tested the 2023 low at 0.63646 and found support there. There was more bullish momentum at the support level this week to take the market near the 0.65000 level, which the market has not seen in a couple of weeks. The outlook on this pair is bullish, as it looks to be oversold. USDJPY 1W Chart USDJPY is quickly approaching 150. The market is now trading just under the 148 level. The 150 level lines up perfectly with the top of the ascending channel. EURUSD 1W Chart EURUSD is still continuing to head downwards after the support break of the rising wedge. The market has now broken below the 1.07000 handle, and there is an area of support around the 1.06000 level. GBPUSD 1W Chart GBPUSD is continuing its bearish momentum after the wedge support break. There is an area of support near the 1.23805 level. The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be: Monday: New Zealand Services PMI, Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes, US Building Permits, and Housing Starts Wednesday: UK CPI, FOMC Policy Decision Thursday: New Zealand GDP, Swiss National Bank Policy Decision, BoE Policy Decision, US Jobless Claims Friday: Japan CPI, Bank of Japan Policy Decision, UK Retail Sales, Flash PMIs for Australia, Japan, UK, Eurozone, US We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week. Best of luck for the upcoming trading week ahead. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
4
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders! Forex Weekly Recap for 04–08 September, 2023: Fundamentals The European Central Bank's (ECB) President Lagarde noted that she is focused on inflation expectations and keeping them in check. She also noted that it will be critical for central banks to keep inflation expectations firmly anchored while these relative price changes play out. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the interest rate unchanged at 4.10%, as expected. RBA’s Lowe gave his final speech as governor, as Deputy Governor Bullock is due to take over as the new head on September 18. Key mentions from him were: 1. It is possible that Australia can sustain unemployment rates below what they have had over the past 40 years. Interest rates influence housing prices, but they are not the reason Australia has some of the highest prices in the world. 2. The issue that defined his term more than any other was forward guidance on rates during the pandemic. The Federal Reserve's Waller changed his stance, and he’s now leaning towards a pause on the next interest rate decision. Other key mentions from him were: 1. The jobs data last week showed the job market is starting to soften. 2. Unemployment is about where it was a year ago, so change isn't that big. 3. The data will determine whether the Fed hikes again. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Takata noted that he is optimistic about hitting the inflation target but remains wary of downside risks. Other key mentions from him were: 1. Japan is seeing early signs of hitting 2% inflation. 2. Japan's economy is recovering moderately. 3. There are signs of change in Japan's trend inflation as rising wages push up inflation expectations. The Bank of England’s (BoE) Bailey noted that he is expecting a "marked" fall in inflation by year-end. Other key mentions from him were: 1. Wage bargaining has surprised to the upside. 2. Many indicators are signalling a fall in inflation, which will be marked by the end of this year. The Bank of Canada's (BoC) Governor Macklem delivered his speech at their policy decision meeting. Key mentions from his speech were: 1. They are concerned that progress in bringing down inflation has slowed. 2. They are prepared to raise rates again but don't want to raise them more than they have to. 3. The longer they wait, the harder it is likely to be to reduce inflation. 4. The weakness in second-quarter GDP largely reflected a broad-based slowing in consumer spending and a decline in housing activity. 5. They will take decisions meeting by meeting. 6. They are expecting growth of 'a little less than 1%' over the next few quarters. 7. They expect headline inflation to go up in the near term before it eases. Key Data The Eurozone July PPI came in better than expected across the board: PPI M/M came in better at -0.5% vs. -0.6% expected and -0.4% prior. PPI Y/Y came in better at -7.6% vs. -7.6% expected and -3.4% prior. The Australian GDP Q2 came in better at 0.4% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.4% prior. The Eurozone's July retail sales came in mixed across the board: Retail sales M/M came in worse at -0.2% vs. -0.1% expected and 0.2% prior (revised from -0.3%). Retail Sales Y/Y came in better at -1.0% vs. -1.2% expected and -1.0% prior (revised from -1.0%). The US ISM Services PMI came in better at 54.5 vs. 52.5 expected and 52.7 prior. The Eurozone Q2 final GDP reading came in worse at 0.1% vs. 0.3% expected as the previous estimate was revised to 0.1%. The US jobless claims came in better across the board: Initial claims came in better at 216K vs. 234K expected and 228K prior. Continuing claims came in better at 1679K vs. 1715K expected and 1725K prior. Japan's July average cash earnings growth came in worse, which is some concern for the Japanese economy. Average cash earnings Y/Y came in worse at 1.3% vs. 2.3% prior. Real wages Y/Y came in at -2.5%. Household spending came in worse at -5.00% vs. -4.2% prior. The Japanese final Q2 GDP came in worse across the board: Japan's Q2 GDP came in worse at 1.2% vs. 1.3% expected and 0.8% prior (revised from 1.5%). GDP growth annualised came in worse at 4.8% vs. 5.5% expected and 3.2% prior (revised from 6%). The Canadian Jobs Report came in better across the board: Employment change came in better at 39.9K vs. 20.0K expected and -6.4K prior. Full-time came in better at 32.2K vs. 1.7K prior. Part-time came in better at 7.8K vs. -8.1K prior. Technicals Due to the very strong data out of the US this week, the US dollar strengthened against its major counterparts. AUDUSD 1W Chart AUDUSD tested the 2023 low at 0.63646 and went below it by a few pips, but there was a lack of momentum to take it further down. The market is currently holding near the new low and is still nearing its 2022 low at 0.61702. A hold at this area, and there is still a possibility of a possible retest of the triangle trendline support break. USDJPY 1W Chart Another strong week for USDJPY, as the pair is now comfortably above the 147 handle. The psychological resistance level of 150 looks to be the next big target level. EURUSD 1W Chart EURUSD has continued to head downwards after the support break of the rising wedge. The market has now reached the 1.07000 area and had a small bounce just above the 1.69750 area. The demand zone is around the 1.05000–1.05050 area. GBPUSD 1W Chart GBPUSD is continuing to look bearish since the ascending channel break. The market looks to be in a retracement wave; there is a demand zone around the 1.22750–1.23000 area. The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be: Tuesday: UK Labour Market Report, German ZEW Wednesday: Japan PPI, UK GDP, US CPI Thursday: Australia's Labour Market Report, ECB Policy Decision, US Jobless Claims, US PPI, US Retail Sales Friday: NZ Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Wages Data, US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week. Best of luck for the upcoming trading week ahead. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders! Forex Weekly Recap for 28 August–01 September, 2023: Fundamentals The European Central Bank’s (ECB) Holzmann noted that he supports a rate hike in September barring any downside surprises before the meeting; his other key mentions were: Not in the clear yet on inflation. The ECB should start a debate soon on ending pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) reinvestments. Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Bullock noted that inflation will be her main priority as the new RBA’s Governor; her other key mentions were: The bank may have to raise rates again, but she is watching the data carefully. All central banks are grappling with how much further to hike. Climate change is likely to lead to more volatile inflation outcomes. The Federal Reserve's Mester noted that progress on inflation and the labour market is improving; her other key mentions were: The job market is still strong amid signs of rebalancing. The 3.8% jobless rate is still low. The main Fed debate is how restrictive policy needs to become and for how long. Future policy decisions will be based on incoming data. The Fed must balance risks when setting rate policy. Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Nakamura noted that Japan is no longer in deflation; his other key mentions were: The BoJ must patiently maintain an easy policy for the time being. Japan's economy is recovering moderately. The BoJ is closely watching the impact of yen moves on the economy and prices. Weak yen benefit exports and tourism but is negative for domestic-driven firms and households. The decision on when to end negative rates depends on economic developments. If Japan achieves sustained economic recovery, they won't need yield curve control (YCC), but now is not the time to get rid of YCC. Key Data Preliminary data for Australian July retail sales Retail sales M/M came in better at 0.5% vs. 0.3% expected and -0.8% prior. Retail sales Y/Y came in worse at 2.1% vs. 2.3% prior. Japan Unemployment Rate missed expctations The unemployment rate came in worse at 2.7% vs. 2.5% expected and 2.5% prior. The US job openings for July missed expectations. Job openings came in worse at 8.827M vs. 9.465M expected and 9.165M prior (revised from 9.582M). The US Non-Farm ADP came in worse at 177K vs. 195K expected and 371K prior (revised from 324K). Japan's retail sales came in better across the board. Retail sales Y/Y came in better at 6.8% vs. 5.4% expected and 5.6% prior (revised from 5.9%). Retail sales M/M came in better at 2.1% vs. -0.4% prior. The Eurozone's August preliminary CPI came in better, and the core CPI came out as expected: CPI Y/Y came in better at 5.3% vs. 5.1% expected and 5.3% prior. CPI M/M came in better at 0.6% vs. 0.4% expected and -0.1% prior. Core CPI Y/Y came in as expected at 5.3% and 5.5% prior. Core CPI M/M came in as expected at 0.3% and -0.1% prior. The Eurozone unemployment rate came in at 6.4%, as expected. The US jobless claims beat expectations for initial claims but missed expectations for continuing claims. Initial claims came in better at 228K vs. 235K expected and 323K prior (revised from 230K). Continuing claims came in worse at 1725K vs. 1703K expected and 1697K prior (revised from 1702K). US Non-Farm Payroll beat expectations; however, there was an increase in the unemployment rate: NFP came in better at 187K vs. 170K expected and 157K prior (revised from 187K). The unemployment rate came in worse at 3.8% vs. 3.5% expected and 3.5% prior. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in better at 47.6 vs. 47.0 expected and 46.4 prior. Technicals The US dollar started off weak but ended up with a strong finish near the end of the week against most of its counterparts. AUDUSD 1W Chart AUDUSD has rebounded off its new 2023 low at 0.63646 but is still nearing its 2022 low at 0.61702. The symmetrical triangle on the 1W chart was broken to the downside, and the price action is indicating a possible re-test of the trendline support break. USDJPY 1W Chart Another strong end to the week for USDJPY, as the pair tested the 145.073 resistance level for the third week in a row. The 147 level was finally reached this week and found resistance at 147.378, which is just short of our resistance level of 147.572. EURUSD 1W Chart EURUSD has now broken below the support line of the rising wedge. We got the swings with less momentum and for them to have lower highs and lower lows to show signs of possible reversal and break the wedge to the downside. There is potential for a continuation towards 1.07000 and possibly 1.06750. GBPUSD 1W Chart GBPUSD has looked bearish since the ascending channel break. The bearish outlook is also supported by the bollinger-band indicator, as the market looks like it will fail to break and close back above the middle band. If the bearish momentum continues, there is potential support at 1.23081. The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be: Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Decision Wednesday: Eurozone Retail Sales, US ISM Services PMI, Bank of Canada Policy Decision Thursday: US Jobless Claims Friday: Japan Wage Data, Canada Jobs Report We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week. Best of luck for the upcoming trading week ahead. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders! Forex Weekly Recap for 21–25 August, 2023: Fundamentals The Federal Reserve's Harker noted that they probably have done enough on interest rates and can hold steady into the next year. Other key mentions from him were: The low-income consumer is clearly slowing down. Consumer credit card delinquencies are starting to tick up. Student loans won't have a big economic effect, but they will have a psychological effect. I want to see softening in the labour market, notably in the services sector. At this point, he sees the Fed holding steady this year while next year is data-driven. They need to see inflation fall before they are willing to cut rates. The European Central Bank's (ECB) Centeno called for caution at the next meeting as downside risks to the economy have materialised. Other key mentions from him were: The transmission of policy is up and running. The ECB has been data-dependent in its decisions. Plenty of data is still to come ahead of the September decision. Downside risks to the economy have materialised. Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivered his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which for the most part repeated the same as his previous speech in that the Fed is data-dependent and all options are on the table. There’s a particular focus on the labour market, and it looks like the Fed is no longer targeting inflation but the labour market. Other key mentions from him were: They are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate and will proceed carefully. The Fed will proceed carefully when deciding whether to hike again or hold steady. The Fed is attentive to signs that the economy is not cooling as expected. Economic uncertainty calls for 'agile' monetary policymaking. Inflation remains too high. Two months of good data are only the beginning of what they need to see to build confidence in the inflation path. Policy is restrictive, but the Fed can't be certain what the neutral rate level is. They will not change their 2% inflation target. Lowering inflation is also likely to require softer labour markets. Signs that the job market is not cooling could also warrant more Fed action. Key Data New Zealand retail sales came in mixed across the board: Retail sales Q/Q came in at -1.0% vs. -2.6% expected and -1.4% prior. Retail sales Y/Y came in worse at -3.5% vs. 3.1% expected and -4.1% prior. Wednesday was Global PMI Day, where there were a lot of missed expectations, especially on the services side: Australia's manufacturing PMI came in worse at 49.4 vs. 49.6 expected and 49.6 prior. Australia Services PMI came in worse at 46.7 vs. 47.9 expected and 47.9 prior. Japan's manufacturing PMI came in better at 49.7 vs. 49.5 expected and 49.6 prior. Japan Services PMI came in better at 54.3 vs. 53.9 expected and 53.8 prior. France's manufacturing PMI came in better at 46.4 vs. 45.0 expected and 45.1 prior. France Services PMI came in worse at 46.7 vs. 47.5 expected and 47.1 prior. Germany's manufacturing PMI came in better at 39.1 vs. 38.7 expected and 38.8 prior. Germany's services PMI came in worse at 47.3 vs. 51.5 expected and 52.3 prior. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in better at 43.7 vs. 42.6 expected and 42.7 prior. The Eurozone Services PMI came in worse at 48.3 vs. 50.5 expected and 50.9 prior. The UK manufacturing PMI came in worse at 42.5 vs. 45.0 expected and 45.3 prior. UK Services PMI came in worse at 48.7 vs. 51.0 expected and 51.5 prior. US Manufacturing PMI came in worse at 47.0 vs. 49.3 expected and 49.0 prior. US Services PMI came in worse at 51.0 vs. 52.3 expected and 52.3 prior. Canada's retail sales were mixed, with core retail sales coming in worse and retail sales coming in better: Core Retail Sales M/M came in worse at -0.8% vs. 0.3 expected and -0.3% prior. Retail sales M/M came in better at 0.1% vs. 0.0% expected and 0.1% prior. The US jobless claims came in better across the board: Initial claims came in better at 230K vs. 240K expected and 240K prior (revised from 239K). Continuing claims came in better at 1702K vs. 1708K expected and 1711K prior (revised from 1716K). Technicals It was a mixed week for the US dollar, with some strength and weakness against its major counterparts. AUDUSD 1W Chart AUDUSD has rebounded off its new 2023 low at 0.63646 but is still nearing its 2022 low at 0.61702. The symmetrical triangle on the 1W chart was broken to the downside, and if the 2022 low of 0.61702 is also broken, then the long-term target level will be the psychological level of 0.60000. USDJPY 1W Chart A strong end to the week for USDJPY as the pair tested the 145.073 resistance level for a second week in a row. A break in this area, and we have a resistance level of 147.572. EURUSD 1W Chart EURUSD has reached the bottom support line of the rising wedge. We are looking for swings with less momentum and for them to have lower highs and lower lows to show signs of possible reversal and break the wedge to the downside. GBPUSD 1W Chart GBPUSD's potential head and shoulders pattern has formed on the 1W chart; the head and left shoulder have been formed, and the right shoulder has now formed. The market has now broken below the 20 EMA support. The 1.26800 support has not had a close under it for 2 months, so for the potential reversal to occur, there must be a break and close under 1.26800. A close of this week's candle will give us a bearish outlook. The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be: Monday: Australian Retail Sales Tuesday: Japan's Unemployment Rate, US Job Openings Wednesday: US Non-Farm ADP Thursday: Japan Retail Sales, Eurozone CPI, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, US Jobless Claims Friday: US Non-Farm Payroll, US ISM Manufacturing PMI. We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week. Best of luck for the upcoming trading week ahead. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
7
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders! Forex Weekly Recap for 14–18 August, 2023: Fundamentals The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes of the August 2023 policy meeting, where the central bank kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.1%. The key notes from the meeting were: The board considered raising rates by 25 basis points, although they saw a more credible path back to the inflation target with cash rates at the current 4.1%. The need for further hikes would depend on data and the assessment of risks. The board agreed it was possible some further tightening might be needed. Inflation is heading in the right direction, though service inflation is still too high. The Federal Reserve's Kashkari noted the steady progress on inflation in the US due to the positive inflation readings but stated that inflation is still too high and that he remains wary of the risks of letting go too early, as they do not want to make the same mistakes as they did in the 19070s when they stopped hiking interest rates too early. He did also note, however, that at some point next year, the Federal Reserve may need to lower rates and that the economy is currently exceeding expectations. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.5%, as expected. Key notes from their policy statement were: New Zealand's economy is progressing as anticipated. Headline inflation and inflation expectations have declined, but measures of core inflation are still too high. The Committee is confident that with interest rates remaining at a restrictive level for some time, consumer price inflation will return to within its target range of 1 to 3% per year. In the following press conference, RBNZ Governor Orr noted that he is encouraged to see inflation fall, although it is still too high. He also noted that they are very comfortable with where the current interest rate is and that there was not much discussion of a rate cut; therefore, it was easy to reach consensus on the unchanged decision. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July FOMC meeting. The key notes were: Most participants said inflation risks could require further interest rate hikes. A number of participants warned of the risks of accidentally tightening policy too much. A couple of participants favoured holding interest rates steady at the July meeting. Most participants said inflation was still 'unacceptably high,' and more evidence is needed to be confident that price pressures are diminishing. They no longer see the economy entering a mild recession this year. A number of participants said the labour market is still 'very tight,' although signs are emerging that labour demand is in better balance. Key Data Australian wage data for Q2 came in worse across the board: The Wage Price Index Y/Y came in worse at 3.6% vs. 3.7% expected and 3.7% prior. The Wage Price Index Q/Q came in worse at 0.8% vs. 1.0% expected and 0.8% prior. The UK July Jobs Report showed another increase in wage growth, with the unemployment rate rising again. The unemployment rate came in worse at 4.2% vs. 4.0% expected and 4.0% prior. Average weekly earnings came in better at 8.2% vs. 7.3% and 7.2% prior (revised from 6.9%). The US July retail sales came in better across the board: Retail sales M/M came in better at 0.7% vs. 0.4% expected and 0.3% prior (revised from 0.2%). Retail sales Y/Y came in better at 3.17% vs. 1.5% expected and 1.6% prior (revised from 1.49%). The UK July CPI figures were mixed across the board: CPI Y/Y came in expected at 6.8% and 7.9% prior. CPI M/M came in worse at -0.4% vs. -0.5% expected and 0.1% prior. Core CPI Y/Y came in better at 6.9% vs. 6.8% expected and 6.9% prior. Core CPI M/M came in better at 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.2% prior. The Australian Jobs Report figures came in worse across the board: Employment change came in worse at -14.6K vs. 15.0K expected and 32.6K prior. Full-time Employment came in worse at -24.2K vs. 39.3K prior. The unemployment rate came in worse at 3.7% vs. 3.5% expected and 3.5% prior. The US initial jobless claims came in better, while continuing claims came in worse. Initial jobless claims came in better at 239K vs. 240K expected and 250K prior (revised from 248K). Continuing jobless claims came in worse at 1716K vs. 1700K expected and 1684K prior. Japan's CPI Y/Y came in better at 3.3% vs. 2.5% expected and 3.3% prior. The UK retail sales came in worse across the board: Retail sales M/M came in worse at -1.2% vs. -0.5% expected and 0.6% prior (revised from 0.7%). Retail Sales Y/Y came in worse at -3.2% vs. -2.1% expected and -1.6% prior (revised from -1.0%). Technicals The US dollar had gained some ground against its major counterparts across the board this week. AUDUSD 1W Chart AUDUSD has broken its 2023 low at 0.64583 and is approaching its 2022 low at 0.61702. The symmetrical triangle on the 1W chart was broken to the downside, and if the 2022 low of 0.61702 is also broken, then the long-term target level will be the psychological level of 0.60000. USDJPY 1W Chart A strong start to the week for USDJPY as the pair broke the 145.073 resistance level and also broke 146 before finding resistance at 146.564. The market is now on a pullback and is trading back in the 145 area; 145.073 will most likely be support now. EURUSD 1W Chart EURUSD is approaching the bottom support line of the rising wedge. We are looking for swings with less momentum and for them to have lower highs and lower lows to show signs of possible reversal and break the wedge. GBPUSD 1W Chart GBPUSD's potential head and shoulders pattern is still forming on the 1W chart; the head and left shoulder have been formed, and the right shoulder is now forming very well. The market has now reached the 20 EMA support; therefore, the reversal of the bullish trend may come quicker than expected. The 1.26800 support has not had a close under it for 2 months, so for the potential reversal to occur, there must be a break and close under 1.26800. The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be: Wednesday: New Zealand Retail Sales, Global PMIs, Canada Retail Sales Thursday: US Jobless Claims We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week. Best of luck for the upcoming trading week ahead. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
6
EURNZD in the Major previous resistance zone creating a double TUsing Top down analysis I have a Bearish Bias for this pair you can clearly see an overall Double Top Pattern on the higher TF's I am currently short with my SL above 1.62806. TP Targets are set yet awaiting more bearish price action. On h1 there is a smaller Double Top which I made my entry on. Also my pending was triggered @ 1.62248 which gave me a perfect wick entry on Daily with a smaller lot. Use Risk Management and patience! Remember I am still waiting for more pullbacks and Bearish Price Action.
Short
by HeliosFX