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The combination of gcov5 and TCD osc = high precision & win5m chart, overall condition analysis. The combination of gcov5 and TCD osc will give more strength to a decision whether to buy or sell. In turn, it can increase accuracy and win. how to get a win in all positions? 1. refers to bull/bear trend ( TCD osc) 2. find a gcov5 signals based on SnD zone and early TCD trend 3. buy price 3 ticks below the close of the signal candle, and sell price 3 ticks above the close of signal candle, so that we can get a tick advantage. If a high candle formed, so enter half candle price. What to do if we miss the signals? sometimes, we miss a buy signal after several candles. We can still enter the market by referring to the nearest support as a buy area and resistance as a sell area. For attention, do not proceed into market if 1. the price breakdown a support or 2. if we have missed the signal too far DISCLAIMER; This post is not meant to be a buy/sell call, just ideas and research analysis based on measurement tools.
MYX:FCPO1!Education
by TraderAsist
3
NIFTY 50 SHORTING!! ABOUT 2.5% FALL!!i have seen the major sectors, and major blue chip stocks, there charts, based on there current positions, and those particualr sectors and stocks's weightage, i have come up with nifty's shorting. NIFTY WILL FALL ABOUT 2.5-3%. since its been a little overvalued, it needs to get a correction. now recently it gave its ATH, and a pullback from it, there on, its been a little overvalued to touch that particular point. now it needs a time to get rest, and be volatile in nature, then it will again resume its rally. one more point to just add on: US MARKETS, are yet too volatile, and they are nearly to be bearish in nature, recently S&P indices could not break the lower low pattern. yet, this could worry the INDIAN MARKETS. and top of that nifty it is already seen it, woth a red candle given past week. i will show a small concluding analysis of what sectors and stocks i had selected to short the nifty, as i ws mentioning earlier. (i will mention the once which are majorly in fall, and supporting nifty to rise)... SECTOR ANALYSIS- BANK NIFTY: 7% FALL NIFTY FMCG: 7% FALL NIFTY ENERGY: 4.5%(approx) FALL NIFTY METAL: 12% FALL NIFTY IT: could fall 2%, then move upward about 10-15% STOCKS ANALYSIS- RELIANCE: COULD FALL 3%, BUT THEN NEEDS TO MOVE ABOUT 10% UPWARD HDFC BANK: YET 10% UPWARD MOVE IS PENDING... ICICI BANK: 10% FALL INFOSYS &TCS- COULD FALL 3-4%, THEN MOVE ABOUT 10-15% UPWARD KOTAK FALLING 6%. i see major secotrs like bank nifty and fmcg, being overvalued, and needs correction, and nifty it being undervalued, a big move still not completed. other sectors like pharma, fin serv &auto to be neutral, being volatile. nifty metal is in crucial stage, since it has just given a pullback, but yet needs to be conformed by its further moves, but most probably it needs correction. i will slowly bring analysis on nifty mid and small caps too, and other imp stocks to get covered, and there further moves.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by raghavchoudhary2016
JOET vs MTUM & an Understanding of ETF WeightingsThe purpose of this idea is two fold. 1) To discuss the fundamental differences between Market-Cap & Equal-Weighted ETFs & 2) To compare JOET & MTUM ETFs. The first half will cover topics specific to ETFs. The second half and very last section offers a comparison of the funds and conclusions to consider when choosing one. Feel free to skip to the bottom if the analysis or conclusions related to the ETFs is all that you wish to read. Definitions Market Capitalization = (stock price * outstanding shares) Momentum is the speed or velocity of price changes in a stock, security, or tradable instrument. Momentum indicates a stock’s price strength. (Source: Investopedia) Market Cap Weighted Indices Mechanics In market cap weighted indices, price plays a key role of weight. Asset allocation goes to stocks with rising prices over time, while allocation to stocks with decreasing prices, becomes smaller. Behavior Inherently momentum oriented. Concentrated on the winners. Anti-value like dynamic when weighting toward market cap. Performs the strongest in a growth based market or when you have concentration in some sectors or stocks but not others. Conversely, concentration risk is realized if a stock or sector’s market cap becomes concentrated regardless of actual growth and then crashes (eg. 2000 dotcom bubble). Equal-Weight Indices Mechanics In Equal-Weight indices, allocation is spread evenly across all stocks and regularly rebalanced at a predetermined time interval. Rebalancing Stocks in an index which have increased from equal weight average will be in excess of the average weight. The excess (difference between the new price and the price at the average weight) is sold. Stocks which have decreased from the last rebalancing will be below the average weight and the difference is bought. This mechanism ensures all stocks share an equal weight at the time of rebalancing. Because rebalancing typically occurs at predetermined time intervals (often quarterly), there will usually be a degree of asset allocation unbalance between those intervals, as stocks go up and down. Rebalancing daily isn’t practical and would lead to higher management costs. Behavior Broader exposure to the overall market. Favors value stocks and smaller sized companies. Protects against concentrated risk in a few stocks that may dominate a market cap weighted index. Performs the strongest when there is broader market participation and when smaller size / value stocks are in favor. Costs Equal weighted ETFs have higher turnover from rebalancing weighting = higher fees and higher capital gains taxes Market Cap & Equal-Weighted (MISC) Both Equal and Market Cap weighted ETFs require reconstitution or adjustments of their holdings as stocks fall in or out of their parameters of measurement. Examples could be: mergers, delistings, or new inclusions from the parent or underlying index the fund is tracking. --- MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF - MTUM Dividend Yield: 1.01% Expense Ratio: 0.15% Hierarchy MSCI USA Index (Parent Index) MSCI USA Momentum SR Varient Index (Underlying Index*) MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (The Fund / MTUM) *On November 23, 2020, the Fund’s Underlying Index changed from MSCI USA Momentum Index to the MSCI USA Momentum SR Variant Index Prospectus notes “ uses a representative sampling indexing strategy to manage the Fund. “Representative sampling” is an indexing strategy that involves investing in a representative sample of securities that collectively has an investment profile similar to that of an applicable underlying index.” “The Underlying Index is designed to measure the performance of an equity momentum strategy by emphasizing stocks with high price momentum, while maintaining reasonably high trading liquidity, investment capacity and moderate index turnover....” “The Fund generally will invest at least 90% of its assets in the component securities of the Underlying Index and may invest up to 10% of its assets in certain futures, options and swap contracts, cash and cash equivalents, including shares of money market funds advised by BFA or its affiliates, as well as in securities not included in the Underlying Index” How does MTUM determine the makeup of a “Momentum” stock? The exact calculation is not published but, MTUM screens for the best performing US Large and Mid-cap stock price returns over the past three years, 12 months, & 6 months as a factor for inclusion into the fund. What is MTUM’s reconstitution strategy when adding / removing stocks from the fund? MTUM cites using a statistical model published in the Journal of Finance: N. Jegadeesh and S. Titman, “Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency.” Journal of Finance, 1993. The research suggests, buying past winners and selling past losers, you can achieve profitable returns. Thesis of the model: Buy past winners and sell past losers in multiple time configurations. (only two configurations are selected in practice) Winners measured over 12, 6, 3, or 1 months prior to the time of purchase. Top winners are selected (selected stocks). Performance of selected stocks are measured over 12, 6, 3, or 1 months after the time of purchase. Winners & losers are selected. Buying more of the winners and selling the losers occurs. Takes advantage of short term market inefficiencies and lag time between corporate events and price movements. Eg. earnings announcements. The research conducted demonstrates buying winners and selling losers works within a 12 month timeframe. Beyond 12 months the strategy breaks down. Because MTUM reconstitutes the fund semi-annually and profitability using this strategy occurs within a 12 month period of time, the fund should be able to realize similar profitable outcomes. Virtus Terranova U.S. Quality Momentum ETF - JOET Dividend Yield: Dividends reinvested Expense Ratio: 0.29% Hierarchy: Terranova U.S. Quality Momentum Index (Underlying Index) Virtus Terranova U.S. Quality Momentum ETF (The Fund / JOET) How does JOET determine the makeup of a “Momentum” stock and the ETF? Screens 500 US large cap stocks for the last 12 months’ total return (technical indicator) 500 then ranked based on momentum and quality Momentum is ranked based on the last 12 months’ total return Quality is ranked based on: return on equity (net income divided by average shareholder equity) debt to equity (total liabilities divided by total shareholder equity) sales growth rate (annualized sales growth rate over the past three years). Pick top 250 The 250 Stocks are then again quality ranked based on the same metrics above. Top 125 chosen for the inclusion into the Underlying Index and used in the fund. Equal weighted / rebalanced quarterly What is JOET’s reconstitution strategy when adding / removing stocks from the fund? Their strategy mimics the above, rebalanced & reconstituted quarterly. --- Factors to consider when selecting JOET vs MTUM Costs of ownership / fees / dividend yield -- JOET is nearly 2x more expensive than MTUM, excluding any dividend yield. MTUM’s ~1% dividend yield is also a consideration when selecting. Stock Selection -- MTUM uses a more technical approach to stock picking, rebalancing, and reconstitution. JOET uses a combination of both technical and fundamental (quality) indicators when stock picking, rebalancing, and reconstitution. Timeframe & Concentration Risk -- With concentration risk in MTUM’s market cap weighted fund, you must consider the forward 12 month performance for the sectors most heavily weighted. Historical data shows equally weighted outperform market cap weighted indices (there are exceptions by sector). Equally weighted indices do a better job of mitigating single-stock event risks. If a stock takes a header during an earnings announcement, the impact on the fund will be lower if in an equally weighted fund. Sector weighting inside the funds -- JOET & MTUM stock selection begins with the largest US market cap weighted stocks. JOET holdings are equal-weighted, but not the sectors that make it up. JOET is made up of ~33% Tech & ~22% Healthcare stocks. 4 of the top 5 weighted sectors make up the majority of both funds. Conclusion / Determination This mostly boils down to deciding which fund does a better job of stock picking. JOET & MTUM use different stock selection techniques for inclusion into their respective funds, however, both utilize market cap weighted indices when making initial stock selections, leading to similarly skewed sector weighting in both funds (particularly Tech & Healthcare). Although, while sector weighting is concentrated similarly in both, the underlying holdings making up those sectors are largely different. Of the roughly 125 stocks in each ETF, only 48 names are shared in both ETFs. If you believe a more technical stock picking process, weighting, rebalancing, and reconstitution strategies will work better, MTUM is the winner. MTUM does carry a higher degree of concentration or single-stock event risk and is not as diversified across sector allocation vs. JOET. However, during times when market cap leaders are leading, MTUM will outperform. If you believe a combination of technical and fundamental quality factors for stock picking & reconstitution strategies will work better, JOET is the winner. JOET is more expensive to own with a higher expense ratio. However, by nature of being equal-weighted, longer term hold durations should have stronger positive outcomes, and lend credence to value-like holdings that have not yet surprised to the upside. JOET also provides exposure to what Virtus believes are higher quality stocks with stronger fundamentals, as that is a criteria for their selections. Because JOET is less than 12 months old, historical performance cannot be compared with MTUM’s. Additionally, because MTUM recently changed the underlying index used for stock selection and inclusion into the fund (Nov 2020), its historical performance cannot be used as an indicator or expectation of how the fund may perform moving forward.
JEducation
by MichaelGoldberg
2
What is Currency Weighted Average in Forex Trading? Why Currency pairs going up or down? If EURUSD pair goes up from 1.2500 to 1.2510, the Euro has increased in relative value by 10 pips because either 1) EUR has strengthened, or 2) USD has weakened, or 3) Both EUR and USD have strengthened but relatively at different pace, or 4) Both EUR and USD have weakened but relatively at different pace But how do you study Euro or Dollar on its own and not as a counter currency of a pair? For example how do you know that how powerful Euro is at a particular point of time. In fact there is no exact way to do it. Some people say studying European indices or European yields may help but unfortunately the correlation among currencies and indices and yields are not always consistent and may lead into misjudgments. Here I will show you how to study each “single currency” on its own rather than studying “a pair”. If you want to buy Amazon shares, you need to review Amazon market only but in Forex trading if you want to trade a currency pair like EURUSD, two markets should be reviewed, the base currency market and the counter currency market. But the problem is that there is no EUR market or such that and there is no USD market. Therefore, EURUSD can be up about 1% but for the same day another EUR pair like EURGBP might go down for 1%. Then how can we say whether EUR is rising or falling on that day? This can be a lot more complicated when you add other currencies like EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF and EURJPY. In other word you might have strong EUR, CHF, CAD, GBP and weak USD, YEN, AUD, NZD. Then how could I come to a conclusion about EUR? You cannot say that unless you use EUR Currency Weighted Average. If you make your decision based on EURUSD on that day, you can easily lose all the profit earned from EURUSD by investing in EURGBP and adding the commission you will have a losing day! Most people when trading a pair, look at one single chart and run their technical analysis based on that single chart only. For example in trading EURUSD, they draw supports and resistance lines or use indicators like EMA, SMA or RSI to predict the direction of the move. In addition they may also review related US and European indices for that day but is it enough? I challenge it as most important pieces of information is missing that how does EUR and USD reacts to other currencies at that point of time. For EURUSD we should check EURUSD in addition to other EUR crosses like EURGPB, EURJPY, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCAD and EURCHF. Also USD crosses like USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, NZDUSD and AUDUSD need to be reviewed too. But how can we review 13 markets before trading EURUSD. The answer is EUR Currency Weighted Average and USD Currency Weighted Average that make us able to summarize all these 13 charts into 2 charts only. If weighted average Euro shows you that Euro at that particular time is weak and EUR has a losing day, then you would not have gone Long EURUSD even if all your indicators shows you that EURUSD is bullish. Using weighted averages helps you to prevent getting into the trades that are less likely to be winning. Let’s say you studied your charts and you think EURUSD is bullish and EURGBP is bearish. But when you studied EUR weighted average charts it shows you that EUR is bearish at that point of time, then which one of these trades you take and which one you ignore? Yes, you will go Short EURGBP and wait a bit longer to enter EURUSD Long trade. Even if you argue that what if USD has become weaker recently, which can lead into a great EURUSD, then I would say, there are still plenty of EUR crosses which does offer a better set up. Market movement for weighted averages If you are going to trade a pair, you should know how powerful each currency is depending on the time frame you use for trading. If both currencies moving in the same direction, then you should not trade that pair. For example, if both EUR and USD are getting weaker then trading that pair is not appropriate for trading where you can find other currencies that are moving opposite each other. The key point is to find a pair with each currency moving opposite each other. Where to Start? Your first objective in trading any pair is to find any 2 currencies that are moving opposite each other. For example one gets weaker while the other gets stronger. In fact this is a basic math, earlier it is mentioned that the quotation EUR/USD (EURUSD) 1.2500 means that one euro is exchanged for 1.2500 US dollars. In other word EUR divided by USD equals 1.2500. This is a ratio and the ratio becomes greater if 1) the nominator (base currency) relatively becomes greater 2) the denominator (counter currency) relatively becomes smaller. Your rate of success in trading EURUSD gets higher if EUR and USD moves in opposite direction with maximum speed for example EUR gets larger and USD gets smaller quickly. If spend hours of studying your charts but on that particular point of time both EUR and USD moves in one direction, for example both gets weak or strong you do not make any money as in the best situation you need to close the trade at break even. The worst case scenario is when you are Long on EURUSD and EUR gets smaller and USD gets larger then you lose become more and more as time passing by. How many charts should I study before trading a pair? The short answer is 3. In addition to chart which you are willing to trade there are two more charts that must be studied in advance which are the weighted averages of the currencies which you want to trade against each other. Here is the list of these 3 charts assuming you intend to trade EURUSD 1) The weighted average of base currency, EUR 2) The weighted average of counter currency, USD 3) EURUSD chart A lot of people just study the third one, These people are missing two important pieces of information. Why weighted average and not simple average? In calculating a simple average, or arithmetic mean, all pairs are treated equally and assigned equal weight. But a weighted average assigns weights that determine in advance the relative importance of each pair. For example, most pair are around 1.00 but JPY crosses are almost 100 time greater than other pairs as usually JPY is 0.01 of other currencies. Using a simple average leads to an answer which heavily depends on JPY movement which is incorrect. Hence, we use weighted averages that takes into account the relative importance of each pair. In the next post I will show you how to calculate Currency weighted average and how to add that into your watchlist in TradingView. Please if you find this post useful, LIKE this post and leave a COMMENT below. With kind regards and thanks, Dr. Ehsan Khansalar
by khansalarehsan
29
Trading Plan for the week commencing 4 NOV 2019Friends, I hope you had a great trading week. Some of the currencies did not move much last week. For example YEN (-0.22%), CHF (+0.3%), GBP(+0.24%) and EUR (+0.15). That means if you traded these currencies most likely you closed your trade too early as you believed your trades not moving in the direction predicted but the fact is that they did not move at all and it requires time and patience. But great move by CAD (+1.65%), AUD(+0.82%), USD (-0.74%) and NZD (+0.73%). All above stats are based on weighted averages on Weekly charts. Now let’s review the possible scenarios for the coming week. USD (Bearish) If you remember last week I said USD will be bearish but it has some upside room. This is what has happened during the FED meeting and completed the task after NFP. Indeed USD had 5 losing sessions. For next week I think you can see the target in the chart below Look at USDOLLAR Weekly. What else you want as a confirmation of a bearish move? Breakout, visiting the breakout area and off the EMAs. US 10 years Yields has been trading inside a wedge formation and I am in favour of down move as it is below EMAs and Sellers have a target on the lower band of the formation. EURUSD for the first time broke the falling trend line (Weekly) and pulled back into the breakout area and bounced again and closed nicely higher off the EMAs. Similarly Cable closed above the falling trend line after almost a year I bet you love USDCAD chart Weekly. Very clear and transparent breakout, bounce and rejection of the major resistance area AUDUSD did not quite broke the resistance but with a massive bullish move last week, it adds to the bearish USD scenario. USDJPY on weekly does not look convincing bearish as Stock made all time highs last week but we had only a negligible +0.13% in USDJPY and see all EMAs above. Same as NZDUSD weekly as NZD has been depreciating massively over the last a few months and taking this higher needs a lot of efforts from Buyers. We may have Inverted H&S and every 101 months NZDUSD make a Turn. We are in months 102 right now! AUD (Bullish) Last week this Currency highlighted as Bullish, Similarly in the coming week I will remain Bullish however we have very strong resistance on the way up. Any move higher will be limited and profit should be banked sooner for this currency. Similar to NZD, this currency is ready to break to the topside. See the inverted H&S. This is what happened last week for AUD (H1) NZD (Mutual) Last week I was bearish on this currency and I was wrong. But right now see very strong resistance above it on D1. At the same time on NZDUSD it has a very nice Inverted H&S which suggest a bullish move. Overall I think there might be a change in the sentiment for NZD and it may turn into a bullish market but the question is when? To be honest I do not know and currently I have two positions on this currency over the weekend. NZDUSD Long and NZDCHF Long. First one look fine but I am in lose on NZDCHF. CHF (Bearish) Last week I was bearish on this currency and for the coming week I will remain bearish. It is trading below the pitchfork median and EMAs. Until it the resistances are not broken I will remain bearish EUR (Bullish) EUR is not going anywhere and if you trade any EUR cross, you should focus on the counterpart as EUR moving slower than a snail. But it is trading above the support as you can see. GBP (Bullish) Sterling not going anywhere too but it has a target up there. I think we might have a quick spike to the upside and then it turns lower. JPY (Bullish) Yen is not going anywhere too! The fact that Stocks made all time high we should have seen big bearish move on YEN but we did not. Gold moving higher puts pressure on YEN to stay higher and it has a lost of room to go higher. Going lower is more challenging considering the current level of supports below. If Stocks pulls back next week then USDJPY will be a great Short trade. Thanks for reading this post. Have a great weekend. KHAN
FX:USDOLLAREducation
by khansalarehsan
1
GBPUSD UNKNOWN DIRECTIONHi ALL, Were looking at the GBPUSD this is a pair we do not like to trade at present due to the current climate and uncertainty that consistently surrounds this pair. GBPUSD can be so volatile and unpredictable that even technically with indicators and market sentiment a sudden news flash or tweet sends this market into 100 pip chaos. Here we take a look at market direction. Firstly we need to look at the FTSE100, with stocks starting to decline word wide we note a strong sell off and buy into the Bond market. Next we need to observe the current direction in the GBP weighted, we feel this may be due to turn but again we are waiting for a trend continuation formation to start trading the GBPUSD. We feel jumping in the market now is more of a gamble Finally looking at the DXY we feel that the stock market still wants to push this higher and may try to continue the push until the end of September. Conclusion The GBPUSD looks to be gaining strength and may look like it has reached the bottom and is turning to move to the upside. But how many times has this looked the case? with a No-Deal still on the table and the British Government still in a debate on who should run the country can lead to further declines until we finally find out on the 31st Oct. Happy trading
by ForexTradingRoom
CSCO-160412-STO/DMK-G1D-SHORTSome days ago i see NASDAQ:CSCO walking with dante, but if we put attention the price is rejected by the 22.75 zone one and other time and is describing a big flat bottom triangle pattern, and very nice to navigate inside of this. The volume is reacting now and indicate the same risk than the Stochastic - and the price - in this days can re-test the 28.5/29 zone (or not), but if the triangle is right then go to 22.5/24 zone, and then evaluate if broke the triangle down or go up to the 27 zone.
NASDAQ:CSCOShort
by eldeivit
GD-160411-CCI-VSA-G1W-POKER_FACEAn speculative idea of NYSE:GD We can see how the volume have a big drop down starting the week, meaby can be a hammer at weekly end, or continue the drop. The RSI (price) have space for a big down and the VSA_CCI is recuperating or simply will be down a "little". The Heikin Ashi of the volume weighted price is forming a descending wedge and is easy the route to the 0.328 of fibo. Target 1: 115 Short for few weeks “stocks do not rise in price unless demand exceeds supply. Demand is measured in volume and thus volume must precede price.” Joe Granville
NYSE:GD
by eldeivit