2024-2026 Exploration of 5-100x Web3 cryptos and Stock TargeTime flies, nearly four years have passed since we wrote a similar article, and we feel quite satisfied as 95% of the predictions have been met. Except for Boeing, which surprisingly didn't take off, Bilibili ($19), BTC ($3800), Tiger $3, and PDD ($19) achieved the expected 5-10x growth within two years. The subsequent performances of FWB:ACH , LSE:UOS , AMEX:NEAR , and EURONEXT:ALGO provided even greater surprises with 10-80x gains.
However, I continuously reflect and hope to improve my judgment since, compared to readers who directly read the articles, those of us immersed in the sea of information sometimes have our initial judgments clouded by various external factors.
We prefer to express our views at relatively low or high points in advance, allowing time to silently validate these opinions. Real-time perspectives are highly attractive but also constantly at risk, demanding much energy and health. Many have faced health warnings, and we hope everyone remains healthy and happy in 2024. I lean towards identifying the start and end points, then trusting the driver and natural progression for everything in between.
Returning to the topic, it has been over two and a half years since a similar article, and I will discuss a few targets and core catalysts I believe are underestimated:
1.Bitcoin (BTC) BINANCE:BTCUSD
Introduction: Born in January 2009 as a hedge against inflation after the 2008 financial crisis, BTC has experienced nearly 16 years. Its underlying logic and blockchain technology have birthed foundational blockchains like Ethereum, ADA, SOL, AVAX, CFX, and Algo. BTC's development attributes have expanded potential applications, such as Stacks and RGB protocols. My ultimate expectation for BTC is simple: it could be valued highly just as a new E-GOLD for decades to come. If its ecosystem applications further explode, it could become one of this century's leading assets.
Key Catalysts: The 2024 halving, reducing block rewards to 3.125 and resulting in a yearly inflation of about 0.782%, which is lower than the inflation rates of most developed countries. The next wave of funding entering the industry could be expedited by the SEC’s approval of ETFs, the alleviation of sell pressure from Grayscale's repositioning and MGOT, and traditional financial risks causing forced rescue actions by BTC-holding companies to pass.
● Expected Valuation : $200,000 MC: 4.2 trillion USD, marking the beginning of a new world, extensively unfolding application scenarios
Reminder: It's important to emphasize that long-term expected valuations do not imply a straight path upwards from current price points. There might be an average upward trend, but short-term intense volatility is possible. Always remember not to engage in long-term commitments with high leverage. This reminder is also placed here for additional caution.
2.Telegram Ime ( GATEIO:LIMEUSDT Lime) & TON (TON)
Introduction
Ime Messenger is a special version of Telegram, integrating functionalities such as a multi-chain wallet, enabling direct transfers of various blockchain assets like BTC, ETH, AVAX, BNB, Polygon, Mantle, AVAX, etc., among Telegram friends. It incorporates features like Binance Pay, direct Google Translate in Twitter and TG conversations, and optimizes Telegram's overall layout and usability.
Telegram accounts and chat histories, along with other crucial data, can be directly utilized in the Ime version of Telegram without the need for a new account. Similarly, chat histories in the IME version will automatically sync with the original Telegram version, facilitating easy switching. The Ime version essentially acts as an integrator, merging the Web3 world into the TG ecosystem, with TON leaning towards the chain ecosystem.
TON is a native public blockchain ecosystem developed on top of Telegram, serving as an inherited blockchain project from TG's original project team. It introduces more development possibilities and diversity to Telegram's native ecosystem growth.
● Core Logic:
Within three years, the user base of the Ime version increased from 2 million to 10 million users, a 500% increase. The friendly relationship with Telegram's founding team enables seamless connection to Telegram's 700 million users. The latest multi-chain Token group red packet function uses Lime as the Gas fee, which will greatly benefit the project's operation and promotion if more convenient modes are optimized in the future. Ime's multi-chain integration feature can help project parties integrate into the Telegram ecosystem faster. Currently, LIME's FDV fluctuates between $5M and $10M, far below the valuation of many primary market projects.
TON, as TG's native underlying public blockchain, ranks at the forefront in terms of operational level and market promotion. It can be directly used in the original version of TG, reducing the teaching cost. Although it doesn't support multi-chain, the wallet is a single-chain wallet in the form of a dialogue box. TON itself also has enough potential, and its FDV has surpassed $10 billion, indicating the market's expectations for Telegram.
● Keys to Launch:
Ime Lime:
Due to the presence of many hardcore tech personnel from Russia and Ukraine, the involvement of core operational PR is needed to enhance the project's self-marketing capability.
Further optimization of the TG group members' ability to freely use the red packet function to send various TOKENs as rewards to group members.
More optimization of TG functionalities to be utilized.
Further support and policies from Russia towards blockchain applications.
TON:
A more lenient regulatory stance from the SEC towards the official Telegram TON.
Collaboration and output of SocialFi Killer-level projects on the chain.
An increase in GameFi entering through TG as a portal.
● Expected Valuation:
Lime: Current MC FDV: $5.7M, Expected FDV: SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:3B - SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B
TON: Current MC FDV: MUN:10B , Expected FDV: $60B
3.Conflux (CFX) BINANCE:CFXUSDT
● Basic Introduction:
Conflux is a Layer 1 public blockchain supported by a team that includes a Turing Award winner and technical advisors from Tsinghua University's Yao Class, aimed at long-term development platforms for dApps, e-commerce, Web 3, and metaverse infrastructures. Its Tree-Graph consensus mechanism, which combines Proof of Work (PoW) and Proof of Stake (PoS) algorithms, is considered one of the most prominent purely domestic projects in my opinion.
● Core Logic:
Conflux's unique Tree-Graph consensus algorithm achieves high scalability and low latency, driven by a technology-focused team, ensuring smoothness and convenience comparable to high-valuation blockchain projects like SOL and ETH. It aligns quickly with the mainstream development pace of Web3, waiting only for further opening and an increase in active users to unlock significant potential. Trendy applications are gradually making their way onto CFX.
● Keys to Launch:
Further support and liberalization for blockchain public chain applications and the metaverse by mainland China.Further popularization of the public chain as a pilot test in China's Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan regions.
More official cooperation and implementation with institutions like CITIC, Xiaohongshu, leading to the complete disappearance of traditional capital suppression.
Gradual maturity of Conflux's own development and formal, successful support for BTC L2.
● Expected Valuation:
Current MC FDV of CFX: Fluctuating around $0.9B, Expected FDV: $36B-$80B
4.Opulous (OPUL) KUCOIN:OPULUSDT
● Basic Introduction:
A music RWA+DeFi project, where RWA has already achieved application cooperation with singers. Investors can participate in purchasing a portion of album rights with OPUL to earn subsequent album revenue shares from the artist. The new feature, Opulous OLOAN, creates a unique bridge between RWA and the music industry. By staking USDC in the pool, it provides funding for musicians and earns extra income on the staked USDC.
OVAULT is a unique staking pool on the Opulous platform that allows you to stake USDC to access a diverse music library. This library, curated by Opulous music experts, features popular and high-performing songs. Participating in OVAULT not only grants access to this music library but also rewards, offering a way to engage with the music industry and profit from staking.
● Core Logic:
The company has a rich network of core music resources, with dittos being a music collaboration company of ED Sheeran, Overall, Opulous maintains a relatively leading position in market rhythm control, ranking as one of the more playful project parties on the Algorand and Arb chains. The pressure from private placements has been fully released.
● Key to Launch:
The further popularization of music applications, as well as the actual revenue generated by high-profit artists.
● Expected Valuation:
OPUL current MC FDV fluctuates around $50M-100M, with an expected FDV of MUN:10B -$30B
5.Bilibili (BILI) NASDAQ:BILI
● Basic Introduction:
A video creation and live streaming platform, a haven for secondary elements, and a platform concentrated with young purchasing power, which has invested in a bunch of enterprises leading to poor financial reports in recent years. Thus, the stock price has plummeted from its peak, so let's just drink to that.
● Core Logic:
Currently, the only platform in China that seems capable of competing with YouTube.
Gaming may catch up to the era of Web3 entry points.
High user stickiness, but consumer rights are currently somewhat limited to anime series.
● Key to Launch:
Encourage more original creative educational videos, as most Chinese videos now are summary-based, and original content is much less compared to YouTube. Activating this "wasteland" could be a significant source of revenue for Bili, as many are willing to pay for quality knowledge, but management needs to be stricter to prevent bad money from driving out good.
Investments from the past two years are beginning to generate exit profits.
Revise the business distribution; the current mix of live streaming and gaming services with the website is a bit odd.
● Expected Valuation:
Bili's current valuation: $3.8B MC FDV, with an expected valuation in 5 years of $50-100B.
6.Avalanche / Polygon / Near / Algorand/ Solana
BINANCE:AVAXUSDT BINANCE:MATICUSDT BINANCE:ALGOUSDT BINANCE:NEARUSDT BINANCE:SOLUSDT
● Basic Introduction:
Alt-L1 is a core foundational public blockchain infrastructure. AVAX and Polygon are more akin to Ethereum's sidechains, while Sol / Near / Algo have their own underlying architectures + EVM+BTC virtual machine compatibility or stand-alone projects to enhance compatibility with Ethereum. Each public blockchain has its own unique ecosystem. In 2024, it's more suitable for each chain to be discussed separately in a comprehensive series due to their foundational architectures, which cannot be fully covered here without extending into tens of thousands of words.
● Core Logic:
The security of L1's underlying architecture has become increasingly refined. Although there have been debates regarding Sol's foundational security, it's undeniable that Solana has become the largest ecosystem outside of Ethereum, even leading in popularity at times. However, with the initiation of Ethereum's layering series, Ethereum's ecosystem could potentially introduce more gameplay. AVAX, SOL, and Matic are perfect examples of market rhythm mastery, with Near being average in convenience, and Algo being the least market-savvy but having the highest prestige in terms of technical strength and collaborations.
The other L1s are advancing similarly, now engaging in mutual competition. After an uninteresting two years, the public chain ecosystem is finally starting to show some vitality again.
● Key to Launch:
After global macroeconomic black swan events are thoroughly cleared, the new era's focus will shift further towards AI, blockchain, and informational fields, increasing the exploration desire for reservoirs and funds. LSD, Restaking, Rollup, and various new DeFi gameplay will further penetrate major ecosystems, sparking new value bubbles.
● Expected Valuation:
Future MC FDV:
AVAX: 150B
SOL: 300B
ALGO: 60B-150B (300B--- if the team optimizes and gets designated by US policies)
NEAR: 50B-100B
MATIC: 80B-100B (250B--- if designated by Indian policies)
7.Tiger Brokers (Tiger)
● Basic Introduction:
A youthful brokerage with excellent trading experience, superb data provision, and UI design, providing ample information on financial reports and data.
● Core Logic:
Undervalued, with virtual licenses approved. The support for compliant tokens like USDC for deposit could significantly increase trading volume and financial income.
● Key to Launch:
Further relaxation and support for compliant KYC by domestic policies.
Overall recovery and accumulation in the financial markets.
● Expected Valuation:
Current FDV: 0.58B, Expected FDV: 10-20 B
8.Planetswatch (Planets)
● Basic Introduction:
An eco-friendly project monitoring air quality through air sensors, allowing for real-time air quality data transmission via different sensor nodes in exchange for token rewards.
● Core Logic:
High early valuation and low circulation rate, with prices significantly dropping due to the bear market and inflation impacts, a common issue for early-stage projects with low circulation rates.
● Key to Launch:
Further global emphasis on environmental infrastructure, with Eco projects becoming a focal point in blockchain discussions.
● Expected Valuation:
Current MC FDV: 2M, Expected FDV: 20M-200M
9.ContextLogic (Wish) NASDAQ:WISH
● Basic Introduction:
Wish is a U.S.-based e-commerce platform founded in 2010 by former Google employee Piotr Szulczewski and former Yahoo employee Danny Zhang. Its parent company, ContextLogic Inc., is headquartered in San Francisco, USA, primarily selling inexpensive household items, clothing, jewelry, electronics, toys, etc.
● Core Logic:
Overhyped by consortia like Goldman Sachs in 2020, leading to a steady fall to the verge of delisting. Prices are near low, with recent market actions and promotions starting to revive.
● Key to Launch:
Further reliance on group buying, especially the expectation of cheap group purchases by the consumption downgrade population.
Entry of new major institutions into the acquisition process.
Revival in financial reports and business.
● Expected Valuation:
Current MC FDV: 0.1B, Expected MC FDV: 2B-10B
10.Waves Enterprises (West) KUCOIN:WESTUSDT
● Basic Introduction:
Waves Enterprise is an enterprise-grade blockchain platform for building fault-tolerant digital infrastructures. As a hybrid solution, it combines enterprises, service providers, and decentralized applications in a trustless environment, leveraging the advantages of public permissioned blockchain across a wide range of business use cases.
Sidechains are used for building private or hybrid infrastructures, storing metadata on the mainnet. The platform is powered by Waves Enterprise System Token ( NASDAQ:WEST ), the native utility token for all network operations.
● Core Logic:
Enterprise-grade public and private hybrid blockchain protocols may be more easily accepted by traditional enterprises.
● Key to Launch:
Further support for blockchain technology from Russia, with traditional oligarchs and consortiums responding to related policies.
Further popularization
Expected Valuation:
Current MC FDV: 2-5M fluctuation, Expected MC FDV: 2B-5B (20-50B--- if designated by Russia)
Summary:
This article analyzes the long-term potential value of several projects. Some have survived through significant trials and tribulations, and others possess superior fundamentals and philosophies but lack market operation capabilities and are in need of a discerning eye. Therefore, while they have potential, it does not guarantee they will meet expectations, and they may also suffer unexpected setbacks.
The global economy has not yet emerged from the mire; in fact, it can be likened to treading on thin ice where the superficial prosperity cannot mask the unresolved core flaws. Certain festering issues and malignancies have yet to be addressed, so even as the future for AI and blockchain seems bright, it's prudent for individuals and institutions to adhere to a set of personal principles.
For emerging public chains like SEI, TIA, and Layer 2 solutions, as well as diverse projects like Altlayer, Manta, Dymension, Edenlayer, Zeta involving Restaking, LSD, and other novel mechanisms, the extended lock-up periods of this investment round make early valuations even more challenging to gauge. This tests the responsibility and habits of the project teams since the majority of tokens are still in their hands. If the foundation dumps early, new projects could experience significant setbacks. However, there's also the possibility of projects like TIA achieving "vintage" valuations, though such outcomes are difficult to predict swiftly.
The development of the blockchain industry is expected to be relatively bright in the coming years. However, it's important to reiterate the caution stated at the beginning of this article: long-term valuations do not mean a continuous upward trend from current price points. The market could experience intense volatility, similar to a scenario where BTC suddenly drops to MIL:1K and then rebounds to $40k, although such an event is highly unlikely. If one can maintain a healthy position in such scenarios, there should be no cause for concern.
Remember not to engage in long-term commitments with high leverage. Try to avoid or minimize engagement with contracts unless for entertainment and if you possess sufficient self-discipline. Do Your Own Research (DYOR) remains the primary way to maintain a healthy investment strategy.
Disclaimer: This article is not intended as investment or financial advice but merely reflects the author's opinions and insights, hoping for mutual learning and progress.
WEST
WEST USDT Potential Bottoming PatternWEST USDT Potential Bottoming Pattern. Potential for large gains if 0.618 Fib retracement is hit.
West This set up is based on the 5 impulse waves of Elliot wave theory.
The asset is well playing out a rising channel and looks to be heading for the 5th wave which is a larger impulse.
Special edition news n°33: RevoltsThere is a lot here so this special ed only has 3 parts and I've tried to mostly list bullet points.
The west as it is declining, and just dropped below 50% of world GDP, is going through a historical turning point.
There is no boiling frog anymore, hopefully the flame grows even bigger and it's finally all over soon.
The faster the better, I always hated long boring prolonged "uncertain" bear markets.
I am just not patient. Just get it over with already.
> Major countries start enforcing strict covid measures, that some have called tyrannical
***********************
NYC mayor said about vaccines "we've been nice, the voluntary phase is over"
Also now centers throw $100 at who enters and gets a shot
France introduced the most strict covid pass in the world 2 days before the national celebration, where people sing "let's kill the tyrants" (it is the national anthem). At the same time China outlawed forced vaccinations and sanitary passes, that they considered too anti-freedom. China.
Other countries in the west, such as Italy, want to follow France example. China is considered a terrifying dictatorship because they do not allow crowds to go out naked in the street with children and do golden showers while "normies" tell them how stunning and brave they are.
Mass hysteria: some countries (UK...) have been buying millions of body bags, enough for over 1/3 of the population. They're planning the zombie apocalypse?
The CDC tells the vaccinated to wear masks indoors and adds "The delta variant is showing everyday its willingness to outsmart us
". You can say that again. They also found that people that had covid had lower intelligence? How does that work?
France president, while giggling (reminds me of Elon Musk "it's really not that complicated tihi"), anounced he would not take the vaccine because he already got covid (ages ago, more than 6 months).
Ah, France will have zero tolerance covid passes (you lose your job without it no warning no second chance) but there are some exceptions.
First the government will not require those passes. No vaccine, or pass, or pension reform for them.
The other ones not impacted by vaccines, covid passes, or pension reforms are the police, gendarmery, armée de terre, armée de l'air, marine.
Basically anyone with a category A weapon or that protects the government (garde républicaine, Brav M) is above these laws. Courageous.
In other words you either need a covid pass or an assault rifle. If you do not have your pass but are holding a rifle, you can pass.
In burgerland, Biden required 5 million federal workers to get a covid pass. Once again, they cannot force vaccinate people as it is against at least 10 international laws. But how fortunate, the injections temporary authorizations I heard were about to become permanent! Wow, science is amazing, this will be by far the fastest this ever happened right?
Very self-aware billionaire Larry Fink also threw oil on the fire and just after we learned US min wage couldn't afford rent anywhere in the country - while hedge funds are buying houses - he said "you'll have to work longer and take more risk". The take risk part obviously does not apply to 99% of the population that are now wageslaves.
Lots of unpopular laws are being passed. The US just gave feminists some equality, and now women can get drafted too if the government judges it useful.
Israel recently appointed far right PM has decided it was time to force vaccinate the population.
> There are big protests/uprisings and business killing boycotts all around the globe
***********************
In many countries millions of people in the middle of summer have gone out to protest the restrictive measures.
The media said they were 110,000 in France, government said there were only 160,000. This is ridiculous as hundreds of towns had protests, all the major ones, and even relatively small sized cities visibly had thousands of people.
In a parisian square alone there was visibly close to 100,000 people. When confronted the government said "they were in the square, they did not move around, hence it was not a protest and we did not count them". This actually makes me laugh.
As I explained countless times, the useful idiots have no soul. Many "celebrities" such as gay "model" Samuela Górska have given their support to antisemitic and anti-LGBT groups that are getting popular in Poland (as a result of the west pushing for wokeness). See? In the west they support jews and lgbts and virtue signal, in the east they do the exact opposite - even gays - and virtue signal about it. Mindless useful idiot sheeps looking for browing points.
In 3 towns in the south of France were found guillotines with death threats and lists of names of officials that support the sanitary pass.
The french don't mess around. They say it's a tiny minority but my town was empty during the big protests day, they all went to Paris.
And the tiny minority of people that do not bother voting is 70%. They want to make voting mandatory now :D
The country has not even seen a referendum for 16 years, ever since there was a EU one the result of which the government did not like (or respect).
The public does not care if who gets elected is Macron, or Macron 2, or hell even Macron 3 for that matter!
The owner of 400 signs (the big signs near roads) displayed one showing french president as Adolf Hitler and the sign reads "Obey and get vaccinated".
US senator Wendy Rogers saying to ignore White House mandates
Calls to disobey are being made all over the place
People have nothing to do because doors are closed and even if they could open them with a pass they won't, many people are boycotting the pass, and many just don't have one even when vaccinated. There is one activity left: go out and break government buildings.
I'll add to this that California and a few other states have banned gaming PCS (to "save the planet"). So hardcore gamers are joining then?
There is a rumor onlyfans will remove porn content (?????????), genius move. Can simps protest?
> Governments are afraid (panicking even) and are using control measures and repression to fight back
***********************
Calling everything a conspiracy theory is not working anymore. Back in the old days they called everything "that's just speculation", now this sentence has morphed into "bla bla conspiracy theory" which sounds a whole lot dumber.
I don't have spies in Italy, Germany the UK, but in France I can tell you that the current protests have the government very worried (they were already afraid before that but it is escalating) and the secret services sent an alarming report to the executive about the popular uprising.
In France specifically, the powers that be did a great job at shutting down the yellow vest revolution with the help of the virus. But it is back.
Last year there was a very scary news in Australia that "normies" ignored (and also they laughed at "conspiracy theorists"), that news was the Australian government unironically signed to allow the chinese military to "maintain order" in the country o.0.
I am the last bear alive and while everyone is getting agitated and it would not even cross their mind covid is behind us, I think covid is over (as a deadly disease). This could be part of why they accelerate the anti-freedom stuff (they know covid might be over).
France president is suing the owner of 400 signs that displayed him as Hitler and supports the yellow vest movement. A president suing like this is not something we are used to.
The owner answered that is was fine to make fun of the backside of the prophet but it was blasphemy to satire about the president.
France lower house refused to implement an amendment to the sanitary pass laws that would prevent blocking voting access to unvaccinated people because "it is obvious we won't do that". ...
The US government is judging the "january 6 capitol coup", they got police officers crying on stage, they'd make the USSR blush, and I have even seen journalists and college professor (dumbest people alive) say that "they did not punish Hitler in 1923 so bla bla bla that's why etc". This is of course pathetic as he is famous for literally writting Mein kampf and getting big while in jail. I have a screenshot of the NYT saying Hitler got tamed in prison nice one.
Elected officials that are standing up to the strict measures, get kicked out of their group or party, and sometimes thrown lawyers at too
The Australian government started waging war on the population, they said they wanted to send the regular army on the ground to crush the revolt, and in the meantime their police was stalking the end of the protest crowd, looking for weak and isolated protestors and violently attacking them. The ones that get caught will suffer harsh penalties to make an example. This works great if your goal is to anger the population.
France has been puncturing eyes and ripping hands off and making "zero tolerance very harsh punishment" speeches and now the police every day take their helmets off and walk with the protestors.
Australia will go beyond anything done yet and require ID, passport or driver's license tied to your social media account.
You need "100 points of identification". Wow didn't see that coming! "Conspiracy theory".
Other western government obviously also want to use drones and other "what is human rights" measures as they are aware their time is running out.
Paypal announced they would block funds to "extremists groups" as central banks continue to move towards full control, centralized digital currencies, and a cashless society. Paypal is teaming up with the ADL that a lot of people know of. And they did not just say "white supremacists" they literally said "and anti-government organisations". Do moronic zombies still call it a conspiracy theory if they LITERALLY openly say it word for word? Ye they're so stupid they probably do lol.
Vaccination centers in France were burned and vandalized and ministers made their usual show "we need the harshest possible sentences".
Lmao when a few retired generals wrote a letter to the french government they went into full panic mode "omg algiers putsch date omg I want them all thrown in jail the harshest possible examplary sentence". A few of them probably poo'ed their pants.
In the US pardonned Michael Flynn that just got an AR said he'd love to find someone in the white house. Cares given = ???
I thought he was a democrat? No longer? Or a rebellious one maybe.
Officials in the west are breaking ranks. A french general on tv said without flinching, like it's the most normal thing in the world, that the media was controlled by a certain community.
Tunisia government has fallen apart but they are not part of the G7 so let's skip that; it might have some influence; it might spread to MENA so let's skip but let's keep an eye open. More focussed on the US and France, Italy and Australia a bit too.
That's all folks. Maybe the EU falls apart. Bringing the Euro down with it. Maybe the USD falls too, soon. What should happen to the USD value if 1/3 of the country leaves the union and declare their own currency?
I have news about USD reserves being liquidated but this, like other things, will have to wait for another post there is too much in that one already.
TIME AT MODE IN CRUDE OIL DAILY MARCH 18 2021 818AM ESTHere's a quick TREND ANALYSIS using a simple method I like to call "TIME AT MODE" in the current crude oil market. I'm using the April 2021 futures contract to do the daily analysis.
FIRST, notice that the crude oil market has not made a new high in over 5-days. That observation makes me look for downside trades in crude oil by first finding the "mode" since the high and then working from there. Here are the steps to analyze the setup.
/////////////
Here's a CLOSER look at $CLJ2021 April Crude Oil
ONCE there are 5-days without a new high, put a trend arrow at the peak, then work forward from there...
From that first 5-days, there is a mode that I have labeled "4d" for 4-days at this price, which is the highest 4-day mode since the peak/start of the downtrend
There is a RgExp decline that I have labeled with the yellow triangle, marking the start of the 4-day downtrend (which ends today)
Since that first "trend day", the "RgExp down day" with the Yellow Triangle... there has been minimal follow-through and that has allowed the MODE to drop to the "7d" mode you see labeled there just under $65 at $64.96 (the high of the "lowest range" day last week on Wednesday).
There is a chance that stocks are leading $USOIL down here, so it could just be taking its time or perhaps crude oil longs don't care about the drop in stocks now that the stimulus bill has passed.
The 7-day mode hasn't confirmed yet by RangeExpanding down to kick off a new 7-day decline from the $64.96 level....
The RgExp level is where the market is down MORE TODAY than YESTERDAY'S RANGE...
Tim West, March 18, 2021 8:18AM EST
////////////
I will follow up this chart with another chart discussing the 7-day downside implications for Crude Oil. Simply stated, measure the "range around the mode" and project that price down from the highest point of the mode. That is your first target. The next possible target is 2x the range around the mode, projected down. Add that to your chart.
Tim West, March 18, 2021 8:25AM EST
WEST after accumulation will go to MOONWEST after accumulation will go to MOON.
it is good time to buy west.
Fascism will rise again"Nationalism bad" over and over. So here in France I can't listen to someone from the far left for 5 minutes without hearing about how republican they are.
Haha "republican", what they really mean is nationalist. "French republican values", "foreigners HAVE to adopt french republican values", "Europe goes against our republican values".
Call it how you want, it is nationalism.
They hate globalism and banks soooo much. In the UK the labor guy that got horrible results was openly antisemitic and did not say sorry yet.
His brother is a climate denier by the way haha I'm surprised they did not use that against him.
The far right at least are open and honest about nationalism. The far right doesn't like globalism much but the far left hates it with a passion.
Like seriously, they want to rip their eyes out. I honestly think they would want to send "international jewish bankers" in the oven.
In France far left + far right get about half of votes, but the divide to conquer tactic allowed each side to hate the other one so they can never win. Yet.
The liberal-bourgeois lügenpress propaganda is not working anymore, too easy to debunk, they are on the decline, and actually their lies are so transparent that is has the opposite effect.
It would not surprise me the decadent liberal-bourgeois governments have created this covid crisis on purpose, they are desperate to stay in power, and to blame the inevitable debt depression crisis on something.
George Soros has been financing Antifa I assume he thinks they are the lesser of 2 evils? He wants his family to dodge the camp maybe?
Antifa are MORONS. They spit on everybody. Anyone that tries to enter their little zones they harass. They are hostile to EVERYONE. This is not how you gain support.
They're a bunch of barely organized clowns and I do not think they are the lesser of 2 evils. But well the oligarchs support the democrat party far more than these radical groups.
Maybe the covid crisis was created to avoid blaming jews like "last time"? They have Israel now you know? No need for a desperate Madagascar plan now...
Everyone is fed up with the liberal bourgeois so a choice will probably have to be made. Will the very rich support Antifa & cie when they scream "eat the rich"?
Will religious people? Hell no. Will the middle class support a group that hates them? No, at least not the mentally stable white middle class, can't tell for sure for the rest.
Antifa is stupid, believes in Santa Claus, is hostile to everybody, has no sound plan. My chips are on fascists or nationalists or whatever we will see what emerges.
There is a rumor, it says that the EU wants to wait for 2022 french elections to push their agenda because "they fear it will get a populist elected" seriously...
Oh and Macron the president said him and his minister buddies will makes changes so unpopular they would not get re-elected for sure.
Fun fact: In 1830 there was a revolution in France. As it became evident the revolutionary alliance won, in the night the liberal-bourgeoisie placed propaganda signs on walls, and they took over by force, journalists & congressmen stabbed republicans in the back and put liberal-bourgoies in power, with their monarch at the top.
Republicans fixed that in 1848. This was 200 years ago. Journalists and deputies/representatives were already like they are today. Fake news were partisans before Trump called them fake news, they were lying before Goebbels called them the lügenpress. Once you read about and understand what happened in the past, the factions, the tactics, it all becomes really obvious.
In France 1848 was the start of the first industrial wave, with big projects: railroads, textiles, metal melting...
To find economic info about the time you really have to dig in hard. Nobles vanished but instead you got robber barons and oligarchs in general, today we have no nobility (or very little and they are powerless) instead we have the oligarchs. Oligarchs rose probably very similarly to how nobles rose back in the day. They probably have the same qualities lol. Get rid of nobles get oligarchs. Get rid of oligarchs get something new. The people that want to get rid of this class think they are smarted than 1 million year of human history. They are not.
I could go on and on but let's end it here.
They hate Trump but they have no clue... Some will have a brutal awakening!
I'm going to guess that roughly the depression will last 20 years, and the west will continue its long term slowdown-decline of course.
A depression within a larger time frame secular decline. Wave 1.
Trump was just a little preview of what is to come. Traitorous no-compromise liberal bourgeoisie is making sure of it.
Long Waves EnterpriseThe altcoin bull market has started!
With a market cap of just ~10mil. This is one of the undervalued crypto project in my opinion!
coinmarketcap.com
In this rare case even a x1000 is possible in the next few years in my opinion.
The platform ist still in the very early stage!
Christina Tikhonova, president of Microsoft Russia, called Waves a leader in international blockchain platforms
and a substantial contributor to the ecosystem of decentralized solutions.
www.cryptoglobe.com
Waves Enterprise, an enterprise-grade hybrid blockchain firm, recently got included in the Unified Register of Russian Software for Computers and Databases by the country’s Ministry of Communications.
btcmanager.com
just inform yourself, this is a unique chance and not easy to find such big players in such a early stage
Although this could be the investment which changes lifes in just a few years, just invest what you can afford to lose
Best wishes!
BTCUSD CRYPTO WILD WESTWith a weak hands shake out, from the premature break of the ascending triangle and a failed H&S after to reck the premature sellers, looks like we are continuing the uptrend direction. On the move to hit 19k, if we are able to break and hold above the trend line. This is Crypto Wild West.
WEST - Waves EnterpriseNew project WEST forming interesting formation on the bottom
News🤫
Rostelecom together with Waves Enterprise has developed a blockchain-based remote electronic voting system.
Best regards EXCAVO
West next WavesThis waves, the only wave will be awesome look his MarketCap is very ridiculous.
For compare
West
Market Cap
$4 097 249 USD
Circulating Supply
38 746 827 WEST
$0,105744 USD
SOL
Market Cap
$131 171 214 USD
Circulating Supply
32 428 913 SOL
$4,04 USD
^^
Canadian Lumber Stocks Poised to bounce.The Commerce Department ruled recently that tariffs imposed on most Canadian lumber sold south of the border could be reduced, after conducting an administrative review of anti-dumping and countervailing duties applicable for 2017 and 2018. This will mean a boost to cash flow and profits for the Canadian lumber companies. Also, lumber prices have been rising.
TRUMP, BREXIT, CAPITALISM and ANCIENT ROME.Trump, Brexit, Capitalism and Ancient Rome. We’ve been there before.
It is In the light of the Trump's impeachment looming and the Brexit can being kicked further down the road that I wanted to reflect on the reasons behind the two massive 2016 events and the parallels I am seeing with Ancient Rome. The idea behind this article is that although history does not repeat itself, it does run in certain patterns.
The modern West the way we know it today, with the labor laws, human rights and liberal democratic capitalism formed as a system after WW1, or, rather after the 1917 October Revolution in Russia, which scared the rest of Europe into action. It is usually noted that the changes that were brought up were made for the working class, which is true, but in part only.
The key target of the reforms was the emerging middle class as a designed counterweight to the young Soviet proletariat project. The reason for it is that any system needs people who are interested in it for it to survive. It was the middle-class shop owner, rentier, skilled laborers, who needed the democracy, rights, the Republic, and relatively free markets too.
The case was further emphasized after WW2 when the Soviets became a symbol of a completely different alternative system, that posed mortal threat to the West and Capitalism.
With the collapse of the USSR, however, we've reached «the end of history». Capitalism, liberal democracy and all that accompanies these ideas has won. There was one global system only.
And as was the case with Ancient Rome, as soon as they defeated Carthage, the long-standing mortal enemy, a rival City that could bring to an end the entire Roman civilization, Rome immediately turned onto itself. Just as the immune system attacks its own body in the absence of external malicious substances.
Rome turned onto itself, slowly, already the strongest unrivaled force in the region, but not yet a ruler of the whole Mediterranean. As Rome grew, so did the riches of the Rich, not constrained by Rome or Italy, for both enrichment and sources of power anymore, no longer waking up at night to the nightmare of the Hannibal's hoards streaming down the slopes of the Alps.
After the last King left Rome for good, The Veii, The Samnites, The Latins and then the Great Carthage were all strong enough to put Rome to an end. So the social cohesion was strong, as any Roman identified itself with Rome in the first place, his class interest coming second.
However, after the True mortal threat was gone, the metamorphosis in the elite-people relations spilled out in the open with the Social war of the Italian cities, fighting for the same rights as the Roman citizens. The demands, that were reasonable at the very least, as the Italian cities were populated by the Romans in all but name, supplied soldiers to the armies of Rome, yet were getting increasingly smaller parts of the spoils. These demands were rejected by the Senate, fearing an influx of the Novus homo(new people) to the political scene, possibly targeting their rights as nobles, challenging their seats in the Senate.
Then, with the Gracchi Brothers, disturbing Rome for at least a generation in their fight against the oligarchs. Followed by Marius and Sulla years of Struggle, ending with the Death of the Republic at the hands of Caesar and Augustus.
The state of the Republic before its collapse was remarkably similar to the one of the modern West, but nowhere so striking as in the USA and the UK, the two empires, that styled themselves after Rome in one way or the other.
In the days of Caesar, All the land in Italy and outside of it was concentrated in the hands of the few wealthy families, the fields were worked by the hundreds of thousands of the slave hands. The deposed farmers and laborers all flocked to the cities, filing brothels, gangs, and armies of beggars, which ultimately lead to the grain dole being the cornerstone of the late republican and then imperial policy.
Julius Caesar, an impoverished noble, came to prominence opposing his class, pushing for the land reforms, which ultimately resulted in the Senate eager to prosecute him, which as we all know led to the legendary crossing of the Rubicon and the consequent death of the 500-year-old republic.
As I mentioned above, Any system lives only as long as there are enough people interested in its existence. Republics and democracies require an extensive middle class of small property owners(small farmers in the case of Rome) and secondly, large swaths of wealth to be distributed evenly among the elite.
If 50% of all the land belongs to a 1000 nobles, they need a Senate to settle the disputes among themselves and also, they, though reluctantly, need the consent of the other 50% of the owners.
That is the recipe for Democracy and the Republic.
By the time of Caesar, 80% of all the land was in the hands of just a few families, the remaining 10% in other impoverished noble's hands and the remaining 10% belonged to the remaining middle-class farmers.
Neither the 80% nobles nor the poor, the proletariat, ex-middle class, outcompeted by the free slave labor and colonial goods, needed the Republic. It did not serve them anymore.There were not enough people who were interested in its existence. And the Republic fell.
It weathered the Veii, the Gauls, the Samnites, and the Latins, it weathered Carthage, the Macedonian and the Syrian wars. It fell after there was no enemy left to fight.It fought and consumed itself.
I am not here to say that the election of Trump and Brexit vote are in any way comparable to the fall of the Roman Republic. We are not there yet.
However, I can not help but notice the striking similarities between the Late Republic and the modern-day West.
The West fell in love with neoliberalism in the mid-80s. We opened up markets, we deregulated. Which is good. Free markets and capitalism are the ultimate wealth creators.
But we also opened up the borders for migrants. We had electricity prices 3-4 times the ones of China. We had environmental and other regulations kill businesses in droves, driving the survivors out of the West. No one was ready for that.
In the UK we saw both major parties, the Tories and the Labour turning from serving the different parts of the now dying middle class to the one serving the ultra-rich and the other serving the ultra-poor.
In the US, the Dem party saw that the mass uncontrolled migration turned sanctuary cities, red and purple states- blue and the Republicans were hypnotized by the neoliberal mantra, also being busy bombing godforsaken deserts thousands of miles away from the US.
Small farmers died out and were bought up by large estates, migrants turned sleepy peaceful cities across America into the War Zones.
The middle class, slowly dying under the simultaneous assault of the sudden globalization and migrants driving down wages, destroying communities, was constantly bombarded with allegations of racism, fascism, white privilege, homophobia, islamophobia, and many other phobias , by the smirking intellectual coastal financial, media and political elites of the Bay Area, Manhattan and the DC In the US and Southern England/London mansion dwelling Westminster M25 bound elite in the UK.
The elite, that felt that they were smart enough to make the decisions, the brunt of which they were never to bear.They had good jobs, unavailable for migrants, they had private schools, free of the latter, and they did not need any border walls, for their estates were behind the walls anyhow. Migrants mowed their lawns, served their coffee and took out the trash.
They got emboldened by the fall of the Soviet Union in the same way the elites of Rome got emboldened by the defeat of Carthage.
The middle class that was to be a counterweight to the Soviet system was no longer needed, so they were to tax it out of the existence. Tax and regulate the businesses that supported the middle class out of the existence too, substituting them with cheap migrants and overseas labor to take away any bargaining power they had left.
The vote for Trump and Brexit was a massive middle finger to Washington, Hollywood, New-York, Westminster and Brussels. The people of the Leave and Trump didn’t care about the consequences, even if there were to be any. They just told the arrogant elites to “go and love themselves”.
The Trump/Brexit voters were the same people who supported the Gracchi Brothers and cheered Marius And the Popularies.
Now, we are still quite far away from the Caesar/Augustus moment in the West, but we are already close to the Gracchi Brothers moment. However, contrary to the popular mythology, the Era of Emperors in Rome, despite the good optics and splendor and the aura of glory did not benefit anyone, neither the common men nor the elites. So instead of the hysteria about Trump and Brexit that we were all unfortunate enough to be involuntary witnesses to, conclusions are to be made. Yet, with the Calls for the impeachment, Brexit revocation, the further EU federalization and yet even louder calls for the open borders, UBI, slavery reparations, More regulations, the Green new deals of all sorts and other fancy words, that are in reality a mere epitaph of the Middle Class yet be carved on it’s tombstone, if any of that to be enacted, hopes are low.
As I already mentioned, it was the lack of a potent enemy, rather than the existence of one, that killed the republic. In the light of the reaction of the elites to the events observed in this article, the hopes are low, but the salvation of the West might come in a form of a common enemy in the face of China.
If that is not to be the case, the West is bound to consume itself.Alas, unlike Rome, I can't see a shining empire coming out of the flames of the old Republic, metaphorically speaking.
The end.
PS:that is a grotesque exaggeration for a stronger dramatic effect, yet the concerns raised in this article do deserve a good discussion. Which I encourage you to produce in the comment section.
Please, do share and comment. I would appreciate your take on the issue. Let me know if you think my analogies are accurate.
Time At Mode Methodology in $SPY Daily & WeeklyFrom the low in November in the 5% "lock-limit-down" move after the US Presidential Election, we begin a new UPTREND.
I updated the trading chat room "Key Hidden Levels" with this analysis as the rally unfolded out of the December-January trading range that is shown where there are 20-days at one price. There were also 7-weeks at one price, which implies that the market would advance for both 20-days and for 7-weeks once it "disconnected" from that price. Disconnected means to "range expand away from" the mode and to trade with an entire range above the mode. You can see both did that where I have yellow and red arrows marking Day-1 and Week-1.
The rally time has exhausted, and typically that means you have an amount of time equal to the rally to congest and test the mode. If the mode holds, then assume a larger uptrend. You can trade short for the next few days or the next few weeks, but keep in mind that I didn't analyze the monthly trend on this chart.
Either way, I just wanted to show you how mechanically and mathematically we analyze trends in the "Key Hidden Levels Chat Room." Sidenote: We do use emotions too, but that's for another chart on another day.
Cheers,
Tim
Australian Dollar AUDUSD set up for a 10% rallyUsing a mechanical-only approach to analyzing the market can provide disciplined, unbiased and unemotional projections.
The AUDUSD has been building a base down here for the last 9 months where every single month has traded between 0.75 and 0.764. The trend-indicator "RgMov" hit a new 44-bar high in early 2016 which pointed to opportunities to buy 11-week oversold (using CCI(11)) and two signals have occurred so far. We are close to a 3rd signal.
The last 6 months have been a period of diminishing volatility as the monthly ranges have tightened. Notice the reduced ATR% line at the bottom. You can also see it in the size of the trading ranges on the monthly boxes.
The potential fundamental lift here is for the expectation of a rebound in commodities as investors look for a Gov't led infrastructure spend here in the US.
The "ENTRY LONG" for AUDUSD will take several steps, but I like my odds here even though the market hasn't started moving away from the "white box" "mode" on the chart. If we hold above the yellow line at .7476 the market is in very strong hands and if above .7640 there is a strong chance for acceleration up. If we see acceleration up, then you want to force yourself to jump on board and to be prepared to buy dips, as labeled in the green rally forecast to the "target zone" shown.
Stop loss 0.7400
Target 0.84-0.87
Time frame: 3-7 months
Tim 11/11/2016 .75519 last