WBC short term longI'm no charting expert however this seems glaringly obvious.
Formation of a triangle squeezing price for the next bar or two and there should be some movement, in this case I'm predicting movement upwards.
Keep an eye on volume, if there is more than avg volume it solidifies the upward trend in the short term.
Disclaimer: I entered approx Nov 2022 at AUD 24 and am looking to recoup my cost.
Macro view: I expect RBA to keep interest rates high (maybe one more rise) for the coming 2024-2025, which does not bid well for the banking sector
Westpac
Strong result and reasonable valuation Westpac shares bucked the trend amongst its banking peers rising after revealing its half-year result for the first half of the 2023 financial year. Cash earnings came in at $4,001m which rose +22% from last year benefiting from higher interest rates and making progress to become a simpler, stronger bank with disciplined cost and margin management providing $1 billion of in cost savings.
Interim dividend came in at 70 cents per share, up +15% from last year, and a 61% payout ratio to further strengthen their balance sheet.
We welcome Westpac’s result which was in-line with market expectations and with a conservative view anticipate loan business and margins to tighten slightly given the slowdown in the housing market due to rising interest rates. Westpac as still trades at a reasonable multiple compared to other big four banks’ forecasted to pay out a 6.5% dividend (taking a prudent approach of assuming no dividend growth from here).
Read more at: research.blackbull.com
AUD pauses after mini-rallyThe Australian dollar is showing little movement in the Wednesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.7706, down 0.08% on the day.
Australia's economy has recovered from the Covid-induced downturn more quickly than expected. The country has contained Covid quite well, and global demand for Australian exports is growing. The impressive economic recovery has led to speculation that the RBA could raise interest rates next year or early 2023. The central bank has trimmed rates to a record low of 0.10% and has a QE program of A$200 billion currently in place.
RBA Governor Lowe sought to dampen speculation over a rate hike, saying that there would be no hikes before wage growth lifted inflation to the bank's target of 2-3%. Lowe said that this would require wage growth, currently at 1.4%, to climb above 3 per cent. In order for that to happen, unemployment would need to fall to 4%, down from the current 6.4%. Although the RBA could choose to raise rates even if these targets were not met, his comments served notice to the markets that higher rates remain a long, long way off. Lowe was clear in this message, saying in the bank's assessment, "the cash rate is very likely to remain at its current level until at least 2024.”
Sandwiched in between Lowe's comments were solid economic releases, reiterating that the economy is pointed in the right direction. The NAB Business Confidence index rose from 10 to 16 in February, its highest level since 2010. As well, Westpac Consumer Sentiment rose to 111.8 in March, up from 109.1 beforehand. The index is now just shy of the December read of 112.0, which was a 10 year high.
AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.7805, followed by resistance at 0.7930. On the downside, there is support at 0.7589. If this line fails, the pair could fall sharply, with the next support level at 0.7498
Sell NZD/USD at 0.6705 – Westpac Analysts at Westpac are recommending to sell NZD/USD pair at 0.6705 levels for the target price of 0.6500, while maintaining trailing a stop loss of 0.6800.
Key Quotes
“Rationale:
We expect RBNZ to cut OCR by 25bp to 1.25% on 7 August, and signal potential for more. We expect a follow-up cut in November to 1.0%, with a risk this is delivered in September, and the OCR ultimately falls below 1.0%. Domestic activity is weaker than the RBNZ had forecast.
Markets are pricing 20bp of easing in August, and 42bp by November, implying markets should fall further if our forecasts prove correct.
NZ-US yield spreads have explained much of the NZD’s recent gains, but they should soon become a headwind: markets have priced in plenty for the Fed (100bp) but arguably not enough for the RBNZ.
Technically, NZD/USD’s 3c rise since May looks corrective, and may be giving way to a revisit of May’s 0.6500 low.”
www.fxstreet.com
Above is the link to the original article. Shall there be any updates i will post them in the thread below.
INSTANT ENTRY AT AROUND: 0.6700 LEVEL
STOP LOSS: 0.68000
TAKE PROFIT: 0.65000
RR: 1:1.9
TYPE: SHORT