All's Not Well At Wells FargoOn May 5, 2017, the Wells Fargo & Company WFC 50 day moving average crossed below its 100 DMA. Historically this has occurred 61 times and the stock does not always continue to drop. It has a median loss of 4.438% and maximum loss of 23.427% over the following 24 trading days..
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 53.1379. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading has the stock moving lower. The RSI has been trending lower since November 2016. Even though the RSI typically cycles between overbought and oversold levels, that has not necessarily been the case with this stock. Overall the RSI is failing to make newer highs which is another significant signal of downward movement. This overall downtrend should continue as long as the RSI stays below this trendline.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -12.8863. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is down.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0788 and the negative is at 0.6624. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently the stock had been moving up, however, it has begun its reversal downward.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 80.2266 and D value is 81.8878. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. Currently the indicator is in overbought territory and the downtrend is beginning. The stock has a history this year of easily swinging up and down three-plus percent when overbought and oversold.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be pointing down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 3% over the next 24 trading days. The trend, MA crossover, RSI, VI, and stochastic strongly support this pending downward skew.
WFC
WELLS FARGO and JPMORGAN CHASE UPDATE. I told you guys I couldn't afford two trades going against me. Am I worried about my WFC bull spread? A little. NOT because I think WFC is on a downward spiral BUT because I don't know if it'll get in my range in time (53ish). It won't stay down for long that I do know. I just hope it does it in time. I have a lot of trades going against me. WFC, HLF, and EBAY (I got into it by accident, LONG STORY) but anyways i'm optimistic about all of my trades (maybe not EBAY, i'm neutral on it by the way) we shall see. So far I got two winner trades this year. URBN and LULU. I'm going to keep on keeping on. Atleast I knew JPM was going down on earnings. I did underestimate WFC though but it wasn't slaughter. JPM's hit was a bit more blunt and I also expect JPM to go up, even faster than WFC although I know banks follow eachother, but WFC can't catch a break. NOT LIKE THEY DESERVE IT!! THEY WONT EVEN HIRE ME! haha
$WFC BULL PUT SPREADToday I opened a bull put spread, due to high volatility. Its a 125/125 Dollar reward/risk trade so its small but I would never say no to $125. High volatility due to this dropping like a rock the past couple of days due to bad news after bad news. BUT not due to fundamentals. The estimate for earnings (on 4/13/17) BEFORE MARKET OPEN is .97 which is lower than it will actually be (again). Good thing this thing normally isn't too volatile (to my taste) when earnings come out.
WFC: Buy gradually over a weekWFC gave a nice signal to go long here, when retesting the prolongation of the earnings support to the left (dashed line). I'm adding gradually over a week in this zone. I currently hold a 1.5% account position, since I think we might take a while to take off, but we will most likely see a continuation of the Trump induced rally, and as Tim West pointed out in the Key Hidden Levels chatroom, it has a lot of room to catch up to $BAC, so, don't miss it.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
The downfall of Wells Fargo?FUNDAMENTALLY: BAD SITUATION ALREADY - HOW MUCH WORSE CAN IT GET?
Poor business and regulatory practices are being investigated at WFC. This bodes negatively for the bank, as there is already an admittance of wrongdoing. Such situations have taken a while to sort out in the past (see GS, Citi, DB, BNP, etc.) and have resulted in substantial settlement amounts. The current situation with Deutsche Bank adds fuel to the fire.
WEEKLY CHART REFLECTING POOR FUNDAMENTALS.
The technical situation on the weekly chart looks quite poor: Negative wedge formation since July 2015, death cross in April 2016, downtrend broken this week, volume pickup on the downside, negative MACD cross-over, etc.
FLOW SITUATION ALSO DIFFICULT.
Warren Buffet, who already owns 10% of the bank through Berkshire, cannot buy more stock. He is bound to keep his investment and be unhappy with it or sell his stake... Not very encouraging from the perspective of institutional share-holding at WFC.
WHAT TO DO FROM HERE?
Go short at the current market price.
Price target $40/share.
Stop-loss at $46.
Reward/Risk = c. 2.7x
A possible WFC rebirth means to- BUYI am in no way certain here, but considering WFC's recent...mishaps... the corporation screams "go long!!" to me... I see equity in rebirth so to speak.
I drew in some general support (S1, S2, S3) at 47.10, 45.33, and lastly at 43.56. My S1 level was smashed through on Sep. 13... S2 held up for a bit, but was broken through on Sep. 26... S3 acted as a strong floor for the price, and created a clean reversal at a price of 43.56.. Price went bullish, and fell to form another reversal upon the price point of a higher low. (44.46) I believe price will continue the second bull run off of the higher low, and eventually hit a higher high, or at least an "even high"
I'm calling this one long.
My target is 45.50.
FAREWELL TO WELLS FARGOBlack line a Temporary bounce after hitting the black line but most aggressive manipulators can hold for the below line for max profit.
There will be a strong bounce once hits this Red support line but once broke it will go down to $4 or below. Take out profit and go short after few weeks.
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At least this is the start of the another financial crisis which well may come after election or post summer 2017. All the financials banks will start to collapse.
WFC and other Financials Looking Grim WFC has been unable to gain 50.5-51 resistance for months now, and the chart may indicate that it is time to retest lower. the last weekly level retest was 44.59, which bounced strongly and reversed. if 46.6 is lost, we should look towards 43.2 for next support test.
Lower still is 41.65 and 38.03 as well as others, but these levels may not apply for some time
The Dimon Bottom Hype Is OverCNBC has loved to refer the recent pullback in the SPX as the "Dimon Bottom" because CEO Jamie Dimon purchased roughly $26 million worth of JPM shares. However, it's not looking for those wanting to hold to believe in the recovery dream.
Whether investors want to believe it or not, the U.S. economic cycle is rolling over; and, considering the very high correlation to the SPX, J.P. Morgan shares will unlikely be saved.
Since 2014, I been warning of potential headwinds from energy exposure in U.S. banks. It may not cripple the sixth-largest bank in the world, but death by 1,000 cuts won't be any better for shareholders.
On Tuesday, JPM reported a 20 percent decline in trading revenues, as well as a $500 million increase in provisions (up 60 percent) due to their energy exposure. Fee revenues were down 25 percent.
Technically, the weekly chart is showing more downside is to come. Traders are watching a 20-weekly bearish convergence with the 50- and 72-weekly EMA. Price action is, also, currently below the 200-weekly EMA.
The inability to show support above this level and challenge $59.60 could poise further stress on shares.
Near-term, we'll see price action test the trend/price demand between $52.30-$53.50. A close below $52.30 would open up $48.3 and trend lower to $43.74.
If looking at Fib. retracements, a close underneath Aug 24, 2015 Black Monday low, 1.618 Fib. extension would stand at $37.54. This would be my target for Q2-17.
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West Fargo sports a nice bullish Elliott lookWFC seems to tell us that the big scare was actually just a correction within a bull market. The right look suggests WFC is on its way to new high. We even have the rule of alternation with wave 2 being an expanded flat while wave 4 is a simple ZigZag. The only thing I don't like is within the zigzag both wave are sharp. Usually one is a surprise to everybody while the other is grinding your patience. That might suggest wave 4 is not over and we will grind sideways for a while before WFC resumes its ascent to end the huge active wave that started from the 2009 low. That might even indicate the beginning of another financial crisis.
Moving below 46 will indicate either wave c is not over or I am wrong dead wrong.
Consolidation inside the PRZ - Butterfly completion near X BAC Bearish Bat pattern is still valid as the price consolidates inside the PRZ, below two broken uptrend lines.
As the markets await Yellen and the Fed, Financials are stuck and that clearly being reflected in BAC's chart.
If the price will attempt to rally and test the X zone (18.5$) it will complete a small Butterfly pattern that will add chances that we will see bearish reversal in BAC and a move towards 16.5$-17$
R/R shown in the chart (for two scenarios)
Tomer, The MarketZone
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Bat Still Valid - Can it hold? Despite Yesterday's rally in the stock markets, $BAC's Bat pattern wasn't violated as the price remained inside the PRZ,
The fact that the price climbed above the Fast SMA line and created a minor uptrend line is a bullish signal but as long as the price remains below the broken major trend line and below X (18.5$) the bearish scenario is still valid.
Assuming that we will see $BAC testing 18$ again, the R/R for the bearish setup is about 2.
More conservative traders should probably wait for the price to close below the Fast SMA line.. at least.
Tomer, The MarketZone
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Bullish Near-Term Setup In Wells Fargo SharesToday, 10,000+ WFC Mar 20 $56 calls traded with the vast majority being bought for $0.35-$0.45 each, against no previous open interest. For every put that traded in the session, 2.5 calls traded (18,568 total).
Talk of a Fed Funds rate hike later this year is bullish for financial companies like Wells Fargo and the stock remains relatively inexpensive. WFC trades at a P/E ratio of 13.25x (2015 estimates), P/S ratio of 3.42x, and a P/B ratio of 1.70x. The top line is projected to increase 3.9% this year and accelerate 6.1% in 2016 ($93B).
Looking at the daily chart above we can see another 1% or so rise in shares would confirm a technical breakout (confirming the fundamental analysis and options activity). A low risk way to play it would be via Mar 20 $55 or $56 calls or via longer dated bull call spreads (July $55/$60 call spread) for a favorable reward/risk ratio to the higher $50's/low $60's.
Bearish pattern on $JPM & $WFCBoth $JPM and $WFC are on bearish potential. WFC is very bullish stock all the time, but I am expecting for down move correction. JPM is more on bearish pattern. it has Bearish Gartley , Bearish wolf wave and Crown Pattern Resistant. $SPY is hovering down and I am expecting for down move for correction.