WFT
Weatherford International Leading Energy Sector?Weatherford didn't meet their expected earnings per share, but this could be due to less business in the Middle East as well as with sanctions put on the industry in countries like Venezuela. While they didn't meet their expected earnings per share, they outpaced most of the energy sector and for the first time in years they had a free cash flow. This is a good sign for the company and it looks like one of the stronger buys in the energy sector! The Megalodon indicator is giving us a buy heading into Wednesday! Keep $WFT on your watchlist!
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$WFT gap up incoming$USDWTI rebound likely to continue (shale profitable > $45), $WFT oversold conditions developing large gap similar to last year (followed by immediate upward correction); new CEO is a positive, potential upcoming divestments. Technicals and fundamentals seem to align for a pop on this within the next week or two, followed by possible uptrend into earnings and beyond, depending on guidance.
Watch out for breakout. Long Long Long!First of all there is a strong support level at $5, please look at the light blue lines. If this support fails the next heavy support is at $4.5 because the pattern at this second support for these few months from 11/2016 to now is EXTREMELY similar to that of 5/2013 to 1/2014.(see the upward channel then two bumps downward then a major upward trend, yes lets long for that upward trend). Second there is divergence shown in CCI and stochastic RSI. CCI remained at the same level and Stochastic RSI had upward slope while price has downward slope. The good new is that there are TWO possible breakouts where the second one at 4.5 will bring in a much bigger uptrend. Even if you fail the first breakout at $5(+your own amount as breakout indicator), the second one is there to recover your losses and some gains. If both supports failed to predict the market please ignore this prediction. I put a strong support at 4.5 because of historical pattern as mentioned above and the price set at center of the most recent and most sparse, one day price GAIN/LOSS as demonstrated by the red triangle. And that was 11/09/2016 when trump won the election. To be fair, half that hype the day after his election is a very conservative bet and support line.
WFT Bullish SwingI've been watching this one for a while. Looks to have formed a double bottom. Looking for a strong pull back in to the neckline. May not trigger since it recently had a gap and go.
WFT Bullish SwingGood location for a gap today. Even though it's not really a retest gap, we should get a pullback. good bullish trend. Ultimate target will be 6.31
WEEK OF 11/20: HIGH IV IN PETRO UNDERLYINGS; NOT MUCH ELSEWHEREAfter having gone through my usual routine of screening for high implied volatility rank/high implied volatility underlyings for plays this coming week, one thing stands out: the implied volatility is in petro, with stocks like CHK, SDRL, WFT, PBR and the like rounding out my top 10 IV list.* With OPEC talks approaching here, and "friskiness" in petro-based underlyings likely to ensue, I'm loathe to pile into more petro, particularly if it involves a bullish assumption. The "more likely than not" outcome is no meaningful OPEC agreement as to cuts, which means oil down, which means further long opportunities below somewhere. If the contrarian outcome comes to pass (i.e., "meaningful cuts"), well, then I've just plain ass missed an opportunity to add long positions here and will have to make do with the bullish assumption positions I've got on here.
That being said, the "Top 10" list isn't entirely bereft of possibilities, depending on your risk tolerance and aversion to roller coasters.
For example, GPRO may be worth a bullish assumption play here on the notion that Christmas sales of its drones will be "brisk," something we probably won't know unless GPRO discloses its unit sales before its Q4 earnings announcement next year. The nearest to the 20-delta strike short put, 45 DTE, however, is the Dec 30th 8.5, which would bring in .36 ($36)/contract at the mid -- not exactly something that gets me excited. Even assuming I wanted to go nondirectional (short strangle/straddle, iron condor/fly), I can't squeeze enough out of those setups premium wise to make it worthwhile.
VRX is, well, VRX. The Dec 30th 14.5 short put (currently the 19 delta) goes for .66 ($66) at the mid price. That isn't bad, but I have to put up with sitting on pins and needles for 5 weeks or more with that setup. The alternative would be to go with a defined risk setup (not keen on being caught undefined in a potential whipsaw). Even there, however, an iron condor won't pay out at least 1.00 in credit without forcing the wings in beyond the 1 SD (I prefer more room with volatile biotech), and I'm not sure that I would want to go with the narrower breakevens of a fly, in spite of the fact that the credit I'd receive at the door would be more than sufficient. (A Dec 30th 13/18/18/23 iron fly would bring in 2.78, for example).
Well, what about AMD? That's in the list ... . Like its semicon counterpart, NVDA, AMD's been on a rip and the place to have gotten in was lower for a bullish assumption play (scratches "short put" off his list). And nondirectional doesn't pay enough: the Dec 30th 8.5 short straddle would bring in a 1.44 credit at the mid (I like to get at least 2.00 out of those); the 7/10.5 short strangle, .40 at the mid. Defined risk (flies, condors) will bring in even less.
CLF? Same deal (can't get much out of the 45 DTE 20 delta short put; short straddle/strangle, iron condor/fly bring in too little premium).
Ugh.
Sometimes, these holiday weeks are best for hand sitting ... . Looks like this is going to be "par for the course."
* -- The top 10 implied volatility stocks (in descending order): CHK, WFT, VRX, CLF, AMD, GPRO, PBR, RIG, VALE, CX, UNG.
BOUGHT WFT COVERED CALLI'm looking at engaging a little bit of buying power here while I wait for volatility in the broader market to pick up without taking on a huge bunch of risk ... .
Bought 100 Shares WFT @ 5.78
Sold June 6 Put
Total Package: $518
I'll put in a GTC order to cover for $6.00, since that is what I would receive if called away at expiry, realizing an $82 profit/100 shares. If price is less than $6.00 at expiry, I'll keep the premium received for the short 6 ($60 or so) and will proceed to continue to sell calls against my stock in future expiries to further reduce my cost basis.
TRADE IDEA: WFT JULY 15TH 4/6 SHORT STRANGLEThis is part of a small WFT covered call I'm working ... . The strategy here is to continue to reduce cost basis in the underlying shares. Here I'm doing it with a July 15th 4/6 short strangle in an attempt to sell premium while the implied volatility is still high ... .
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 63%
Max Profit: $61/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/~$50 (in this particular case, the max loss is actually governed by the fact that the stock price cannot go below $0, so the max loss is actually $400 (the short put strike x 100 shares ($400) minus the credit received for the short call $61 or $339).
WFT COVERED CALL IDEAWith covered calls, I look for cheap underlyings with high implied volatility rank/high implied volatility and setups that will produce at least a 10% return if called away at the short call strike.
WFT fits the bill, with a rank of 72, an implied of 84, and a 13.06% return if called away at the nearest out of the money strike.
Here's the setup:
Buy 100 shares WFT at 8.52
Sell 1 Feb 19 9 short call
Entire Package: 7.94 ($794)
Max Profit: (If Called Away at 9) $106