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Identifying Factors for a Pending Trend ReversalDefining whether the market is in a bullish or bearish trend at any given moment is relatively easy. but the ability to determine when a trend will revert is a completely different science. Of course there are a number of technical analysis principles and trading indicators that help do that on a micro level, but defining when the macro trend will change is a beast that nobody can truly claim with 100% conviction and certainty. Sure, you can analyze the chart and determine where you think the resistance/support flips are going to occur but identifying that singular moment when the macro-trend is going to break out or break down really can't be accurately forecasted, but that doesn't keep every analyst from trying to figure it out. As a self proclaimed data junkie and student of the charts, I am fascinated by technical analysis and how the geometry in the charts can tell us so much about a trend and the price price movement within it, but I'm also intrigued by historical data. We all know that past performance doesn't guarantee future results. That said, looking at historical data can help identify some possibilities you may not have seen in the chart before. Anytime I find similarities or consistency between conditions, situations and price movement, I'm paying attention and creating strategies that would capitalize on those opportunities if they should play out. While analyzing the BTC long range chart I discovered a number of things that happened from exactly the same price range BTC is in now, that led me to take a closer look. What I found, lends enough data to support the theory that a trend defining move is about to occur very soon. That in itself is not really hot news, but there is reason to believe this move might occur on a specific date. Before I go any further let me state the fact that I am a skeptic, and I don't believe that anybody can accurately forecast that BTC is going to be 20k, 100k or 500k per BTC let alone pin point a date, and I'll restate the fact that past performance doesn't guarantee future results. So how can I pinpoint a date for the next trend defining move? There is a distinct combination of technical indicators to build an idea around, combined with some similarities in the historical BTC chart. This combination points to the market closing in on a potentially trend defining move occurring from this range very soon. But don't take my word for it. Take a look at the data and decide for yourself. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The first thing I noticed in the chart is that on June 3, 2019 BTC broke down from a micro bullish trend into the green box we are trading in now. This looks very similar to the move that occured on December 4, 2019, from a similar structure in the same range. Looking beyond that, it's clear that there have been a lot of very important moves from this 6900 - 7700 range we are waiting to break out or break down from. In fact, what you'll notice is that just about all of the trend defining moves up or down happened from or very near this range. Many of the breakouts started from a bounce from local support near the bottom of the green box, in the 6800 - 7000 range, and all of the macro trend break downs occurred from that same area. You may ask why. I know I did, which is why I went back to the charts to look for something else. There are a lot of factors that point to the fact that the price action in the charts is not always organic and from time to time (if not more often than we imagine) some one or a group of someones may be using their capital to manipulate price action in either direction. A CLOSER LOOK As I previously stated, I'm a skeptic. I'm also not a conspiracy theorist nor someone who typically points to specific hard dates because that can be damning. So let me explain why I feel differently this time. Anybody who has been trading crypto for any length of time has undoubtedly been on the wrong end of a seemingly freakish move that gave no indication it was coming. Many times those moves are driven by FOMO and FUD, even if it's FUD driven by false reports and accusations. Sometimes those moves are the genuine product of an illiquid order book, and sometimes those moves are controlled by whales and pools who are using their HODLings to establish price floors and ceilings in the form of buy and sell walls which are visible on the order book. Since we know that manipulation happens sometimes, what makes us think that it doesn't happen all of the time. Do the manipulators have a conscience and limits to their greed? Doubtful. Not yet satisfied that my first and second looks at the chart told the complete story, I went back to the long range chart again to try to identify something else. Then, by looking for all of the macro trend reversals on the chart I found 2 prominent moves that defined the macro trend and they both occurred on the same date of adjacent years. On December 17, 2017 BTC surged to an all time high ending the bull run which launched it's breakout move from this same 6900 range about a month earlier, the trend reverts and the bears take control. That alone was not enough for me, so I continued to look for another piece of the puzzle. What I found was that the macro bearish trend that began after BTC topped out continued for exactly one year. BTC bottomed out (we hope) before reversing the trend back upward on, wait for it...December 17, 2018. Coincidence? Possibly. Only time will tell if this theory has real meritt. To be honest, I'm kind of hoping it doesn't, because if the trend reversal correlates with December 17th again, it will not only mean that the whales are truly controlling every significant move in the market, but it will also mean that they are sharing a calendar. *I am not a financial advisor and this in not financial advice. Trading is risky. Do your own research and never risk more than you can afford to lose. I trade crypto and securities.
by kapro
Whale Reaccumulation Zone?Pattern suggests possible reaccumulation by a handful of whales on Bitfinex, where Longs skyrocket to all time highs on taps to the .618 and .65 retraces of the macro bull run which began back in April. Meanwhile funding rate on Bitmex remains fairly neutral, suggesting the Longs are from Bitfinex only. A long squeeze, if it happens, may not kick in fully unless we break the local low of $6618 (on Bitfinex). I remain short, but finding reasons to be careful.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by mastaplan
Bull Whales Vs Bear WhalesHello, yesterday TA played out perfectly with alot of fighting going on. It is surprising seeing the TA, doublebottom which ill link below, ending up playing, yet the concern was the first dump was backup after hitting 7472, yet I was liquated after that insane pump, but shockingly hitting the downtrend line of the smaller time scale than dumping. I did place another short and recovered losses and made some gains with another short which we ended hitting 7260. So whats next bullish or bearish? Well its hard to say cause it looks like we gonna go test the 6500 and 7k with my ultamate target at that 5279 range due to vpvr. I think its gonna be a slow night with bulls taking some gains, yet imo this will be the biggest week in crypto seeing if we are going to test the 7k and 6.5k too see if it was fake. Before complaining about 5.2k The vpvr was the most traded in that 6k range before we had the bottom at 3.1k. So I'm bullish tonight, yet still bearish longterm
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by nathanielx9
Whales and Institutions EAT up over leveraged gamblers in BTC!Time and time again we see whales crush over leveraged positions - today it is a combination of institutional investors and whales taking YOUR gambled money! We have seen these wide range trends since BitMex and it has only gotten worse as more leveraged trading exchanges are available globally. Don't lose your hard earned money GAMBLING in a market you do not understand and cannot T/A reliably. Blue box = liquidation zone for over-leveraged longs and shorts Do not rely on T/A in the Bitcoin market, time and time again, the charts setup for "obvious" moves in T/A and whales/institutions crush the 10/20/100x leveraged traders because the market has such small liquidity and can be moved very easily.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MSMiner
1
Even Gold Is Subject To Manipulation and ControlAll the hu ha hu ha of the Gold Bugs calling that Gold is a sound money and nothing can manipulate the Gold price. Gold is subject to supply and demand. The word manipulation has been abused by people so many times. They think that manipulation comes in the form that someone is trying to manipulate the price of an asset "SHORT TERM". Nope, short term manipulation can't work and will never be work. Manipulation that I have been referring to including in all my past ideas are "LONG TERM MANIPULATION". You need to understand that the dynamics of markets are moves by its participants. Therefore, the much easier way to manipulate a market is by doing that PSYCHOLOGICALLY. That's why bubbles ALWAYS exist, because it is the job of the manipulator to push the price of an asset BEYOND people BELIEFS and IMAGINATION in order to LURE THEM into it. If everyone is rational and behaves rationally, bubble WILL NOT EXIST. That's the reasons why there are so many dumb people and the number of people who understand financial literacy are awful. Because the system is designed in that way. It always about the Elite making money and RIPPING OFF the dumb people. So, the only way for you to win this battle is to THINK and BEHAVE like the Elite, NOT LIKE THE DUMB PEOPLE OR MONEY. You need to bring you conscious and awareness AWAY FROM MAINSTREAM and from the CONVENTIONAL WISDOM. Remember, the CROWD and MAJORITTY always wrong. That's who market works. Gold is an interesting case study. Its an example of how assets work and how capital flow works. Gold has never been going up forever. In fact, from 1980 to 2000, Gold SEVERELY underperformed the stock market. Even now, Gold started to go back up and start to fight back with stocks market. But can Gold outperform stocks? It depends, it depends on what the elites want to do. The tricky part here is that most retailers are NOT in stocks. So, the Elites can't simply drop and crash the market, because everyone has sold out. Its a tricky situation. And that's why I like to think in terms of whales and all these market manipulators, because they do exist and they do have strategic and comprehensive plan. As long as you keep thinking that you can beat the market, then you are doomed, You need to remove all the noises in your mind and start to think and behave like the elites/whales.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by UnknownUnicorn735418
2
$SPX to $BTCMany have missed a trend line BTC has respected from the start of this bull cycle. The first and Last week of April created two points on that trend line that were later also respected in August. The recent consolidation has been far above my trendline, allowing for sideways coiling for months while still respecting the trend. Decision time is here though. By the end of next week, the trend line as well as this descending triangle will meet. The decreasing volume and break through RSI trendline are usually good indicators prior to move upwards. I expect a shakeout downwards first though, typical of BTC, and RAPID bullish candle immediately after. Get ready everyone, 14k, 16k, and then 20k are coming in these next few months. The interesting part is where the funds come from. There has been a clear inverse correlation between US markets and crypto (one up, other down) The US stock market is currently in a massive rising wedge ready to pop (last post). I believe the SPX will come down to 2100 as first stop by the end of the year. Whales will not have their money sit on the sidelines. Here comes BTC. The US recession and the biggest bull cycle in the history of an asset will occur simultaneously.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Matewan3291
Bitcoin whales! What happened? Big dump or pump next?I will start off with a quote from my previous analysis: "However, only one of these two big scenarios will occur: - A straight break of 11.15k, reason for that being that too many are expecting a dip at 11.15k" We broke straight through the strongest resistance at 11.15k, because too many normal people were shorting there and selling, expecting a dip and correction. The probability and likelihood for the dip was present, however, there were just too many average Joes shorting, that the whales pumped Bitcoin to rek them. Bitmex etc. make money by liquidations, those liquidations at 10.8k-11.15k were really profitable, that's why the price pumped to liquidate them. Another important factor to consider is the inverse correlation between the stock market and the crypto market. If you watch the stock market, you can see, that it dipped pretty good. The money leaving went into crypto, therefore crypto pumped even more. When the stock market goes up again, that's where a correction i the crypto market can be expected. What is the current situation and how can I make money using it? We broke out of the Adam and Eve pattern I mentioned first a while back, target for that is 13k as long as 11.15k hold. We are in the middle of all resistance. Breaking 11.9k will lead us to 12.2k, 12.5k and finally 13k. What would the average Joe do? He would either start shorting now hoping to catch the dip or go long now to hope to hit the targets at 12.5k. Whales can easily just dump the price to rek all those longers, who went long out of fomo hoping for 13k+. In my chart I duplicated the dump from 13.8k and this is how it would look like. Because right now there are just this two possibilities again: - Going straight to 13k - Dumping straight to 9k and even below that Each of this scenarios make a lot of sense in the eyes of whales, because no one average joe is expecting this. A normal trade setup would be rebuying at 11.15k (retest of the neckline of the Adam and Eve pattern), however, this may never happen or we can just dump straight through it, so: Buy at: $11150 SL at: $10999 Another trade option is short at current price ($11909) SL: $11955 (likely to get hit, bur really good rrr trade) Short at: $12280 SL: $12350 Short at $12540 SL: $12600 Or Buy right now at current price and sell at the short prices. This are the best rrr setups I could find that are likely to get filled. A whale dump like shown in the chart is still a big possibility, therefore keep this in mind!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DCCryptoacademy
11
Bitcoin Pattern FoundRecently noticed a pattern in the charts. The third chart is a piece of pine script I wrote to help visualize BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTS and BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS . A drop in open shorts has been preceded by large volume pushing the price higher, likely into many stops, continuing the rally. As you can see, after the action has cooled down price, will move to the 30 day EMA before it picks up again. Except for this last time. Price plunged under the 30 day EMA before it snapped back to the EMA. Also, the amount of open shorts on Bitfinex is the lowest its been. This leads me to believe the cool down period will last longer than the previous ones.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by AnotherAnalyst