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Wheat

"WHEAT" Cash CFD Commodities Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑 💰🐱‍👤🐱‍🏍 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "WHEAT" Cash CFD Commodities Market market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise placing Place Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at the recent / nearest low level Using the 2H timeframe (568.0) swing trade basis. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 1st Target - 594.0 (or) Escape Before the Target Final Target - 616.0 (or) Escape Before the Target Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: 🌾"WHEAT" Cash CFD Commodities Market is currently experiencing a bullish trend,., driven by several key factors. 🌿Fundamental Analysis Supply and Demand: Global wheat production is expected to increase by 2% in 2025, driven by favorable weather conditions in major producing countries Weather Conditions: Weather forecasts indicate a high probability of drought in key wheat-producing regions, which could impact yields and support prices Global Economic Trends: The ongoing global economic recovery is expected to drive up demand for wheat, particularly from emerging markets Trade Policies: The recent trade agreements between major wheat-producing countries are expected to increase global wheat trade and support prices 🌿Macro Economics Global GDP Growth: The World Bank forecasts global GDP growth to accelerate to 3.4% in 2025, up from 3.2% in 2024 Inflation Rate: Global inflation is expected to rise to 3.8% in 2025, driven by increasing demand and supply chain disruptions Interest Rates: Central banks are expected to maintain low interest rates in 2025, supporting commodity prices Unemployment Rate: The global unemployment rate is expected to decline to 5.4% in 2025, driven by job growth in emerging markets. 🌿COT Data Net Long Positions: Institutional traders have increased their net long positions in wheat to 55% COT Ratio: The COT ratio has risen to 2.2, indicating a bullish trend Open Interest: Open interest in wheat futures has increased by 10% over the past month, indicating growing investor interest 🌿Sentimental Outlook Institutional Sentiment: 60% bullish, 40% bearish Retail Sentiment: 55% bullish, 45% bearish Market Mood: The overall market mood is bullish, with a sentiment score of +30 🌿Technical Analysis Moving Averages: 50-period SMA: 565.0, 200-period SMA: 540.0. Relative Strength Index (RSI): 4-hour chart: 62.21, daily chart: 58.14. Bollinger Bands: 4-hour chart: 580.0 (upper band), 560.0 (lower band). 🌿Next Move Prediction Bullish Move: Potential upside to 600.0-620.0. Key Support Levels: 565.0, 540.0. Key Resistance Levels: 600.0, 620.0. 🌿Overall Outlook The overall outlook for wheat is bullish, driven by a combination of fundamental, technical, and sentimental factors. The expected increase in global wheat demand, favorable weather conditions, and low interest rates are all supporting the bullish trend. However, investors should remain cautious of potential downside risks, including changes in global trade policies and unexpected weather events. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
PEPPERSTONE:WHEATLong
by Thief_Trader
WHEAT at Key Resistance Zone - Sellers Ready to Step In?PEPPERSTONE:WHEAT is approaching a key resistance zone, an area that has previously triggered strong selling pressure, making it a key level to watch. If rejection occurs—such as wicks, bearish engulfing patterns, or a shift in momentum—sellers could regain control, driving the price lower toward the 559.0 target. This aligns with a short-term pullback scenario within the broader market structure. However, a sustained breakout above this resistance would invalidate the bearish outlook, potentially opening the door for further upside. This is not financial advice but rather how I approach support/resistance zones. Remember, always wait for confirmation, like a rejection candle or volume spike before jumping in. Please boost this post, every like and comment drives me to bring you more ideas! I’d love to hear your perspective in the comments. Best of luck , TrendDiva
PEPPERSTONE:WHEATShort
by TrendDiva
WHEAT at Key Resistance - Potential Sell SetupPEPPERSTONE:WHEAT is approaching a significant resistance zone, marked by prior price rejections and strong selling pressure. This area has historically acted as a key supply zone, indicating the potential for a pullback if sellers regain control. The current market structure suggests that if the price confirms a rejection from this resistance zone, there is a high likelihood of a downward move. I anticipate that if rejection occurs, the market may head lower toward the 558.5 level, which represents a logical target within the current market structure. This setup reflects the potential for a retracement after an impulsive move, supported by the confluence of previous price behavior and the current structure. If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
PEPPERSTONE:WHEATShort
by DanieIM
1
WHEAT – Signs of Weakness, Could a Short Be Next?PEPPERSTONE:WHEAT is within a clear resistance zone that has times before led to bearish reversals. In any case, this zone marked by previous price rejections, could once again attract selling pressure. If bearish confirmation occurs—through rejection wicks, bearish engulfing candles, or a decrease in buying volume—we could see a decline toward the 544,00 level. However, I’ll be watching for strong support reactions or signs of exhaustion before confirming the next move. Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management! What’s your take on the potential trend of this chart? I’d love to hear your perspective in the comments. Best of luck , TrendDiva
PEPPERSTONE:WHEATShort
by TrendDiva
"WHEAT" Commodity CFD Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "WHEAT" Commodity CFD market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : Traders & Thieves with New Entry A bull trade can be initiated at any price level. however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low or high level. Target 🎯: 5.700 (or) Escape Before the Target Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️ Based on the current market situation and fundamental analysis, the outlook for Wheat is bullish in the short term. Prices are expected to continue rising due to supply and demand imbalances, weather-related issues, and geopolitical tensions. However, traders should be cautious of potential price volatility and keep a close eye on upcoming events that may impact wheat prices. CURRENT FUNDAMENTALS: Supply and Demand: The global wheat supply is currently outpacing demand, which has put downward pressure on prices. The International Grains Council (IGC) estimates that global wheat production will reach 765 million tons in 2023, up from 758 million tons in 2022. Weather Conditions: Weather conditions in major wheat-producing countries such as the United States, Russia, and Ukraine have been favorable, which has supported wheat yields and production. Government Policies: The US government's trade policies, including tariffs on Chinese goods, have impacted the wheat market. The US is a major wheat exporter, and trade tensions have reduced demand for US wheat. Competition from Other Grains: Wheat is competing with other grains such as corn and soybeans for market share. The price of corn and soybeans has been relatively high, which has made wheat less attractive to buyers. BULLISH SENTIMENT: Weather Risks: 20% of traders and investors believe that adverse weather conditions in major wheat-producing countries could reduce wheat yields and production, which could support prices. Trade Deals: 15% of traders and investors believe that a resolution to the US-China trade dispute could increase demand for US wheat and support prices. Strong Demand from Importers: 10% of traders and investors believe that strong demand from importers such as Egypt and Turkey could support prices. Trading Alert⚠️ : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
OANDA:WHEATUSDLong
by Thief_Trader
Wheat- In a Clean Resistance Zone, can it reach 542.00?Wheat is already within a critical resistance zone that has times before led to bearish reversals. In any case this area, marked by previous price rejections, could once again attract selling pressure. If bearish confirmation occurs—through rejection wicks, bearish engulfing candles, or a decrease in buying volume—we could see a decline toward the 542,00 level. However, a breakout above this resistance would invalidate the bearish outlook and suggest potential for further upward movement. So keep an eye on that. Wait for clear signs of rejection before considering short positions.
PEPPERSTONE:WHEATShort
by TrendDiva
3
The Wheat Revelation: A Privilege to See the CodeThe Wheat Revelation: A Privilege to See the Code "You’ve always felt it—the hum of something deeper beneath the markets, the unseen forces at play. Today, you are invited to glimpse the truth." The Commitment of Traders (COT) strategy has unveiled another red pill: the Wheat market is primed for a bullish move. This is no ordinary signal; it is a rare alignment of forces, a convergence of codes that point to a potential market shift. But we do not act blindly. We do not rush headlong into the storm. Instead, we wait for the signal—a confirmed bullish trend change on the daily timeframe. Patience will unlock the reward. Let me show you the code: CODE 1: The COT Index The commercials, the smartest players in the market, are very long relative to the 26-week index lookback. This positioning is not noise; it’s a whisper from those who understand the market’s heartbeat better than anyone else. CODE 2: Net Positioning Extremes Commercials are hovering around their maximum long positioning since December 2023. But it gets better: we see the "Bubble Up" phenomenon between the net positions of Commercials and Large Specs. This divergence is a hallmark of major market turning points. CODE 3: Open Interest The recent multi-week downtrend has coincided with a large increase in Open Interest. The question is: who is driving this increase? The answer is as bullish as it is clear—Commercials are loading up, signaling a seismic shift beneath the surface. CODE 4: Valuation Wheat is undervalued relative to US Treasuries. This imbalance cannot persist indefinitely. Markets correct, and when they do, the opportunity to ride the wave is immense. CODE 5: True Seasonal Strength Seasonality is on our side. History tells us that Wheat often exhibits strength until May, and this year appears no different. CODE 6: Accumulation The code is crystal clear: Bullish spread divergence between front and next-month contracts. Indicators like POIV, Insider Accumulation Index, and ProGo point to heavy accumulation by smart money. CODE 7: Large Speculators Moving to Buy Side In this week’s COT data, we see the Large Speculators reducing their shorts. The Large Specs are the ones that will drive a trend. It appears that maybe, the large specs see what you and I see, and are preparing for an impending bullish move. Other Signals of Strength Technical indicators like %R, Ultimate Oscillator, and Stochastic all converge, painting a picture of imminent bullish potential. What Does This Mean for Us? We do not jump into the market simply because the conditions are ripe. Instead, we wait for confirmation. A bullish trend change on the daily timeframe is the key that unlocks the door. Until then, we prepare. We watch. We wait. Are you ready to see beyond the noise of the markets? To decode the signals others overlook? Follow me for more insights, and if you’re ready to take the red pill, join me on this journey to uncover the truth behind the markets. The choice is yours.
CBOT:ZW1!
by Tradius_Trades
ZW | Wheat | InfoCBOT:ZW1! The Wheat Futures (ZW) market is currently in oversold territory across all timeframes. On the 30-minute chart, the RSI is below 10, a condition that is exceptionally rare and indicative of potential exhaustion in selling pressure. Analysis: Overall Trend: The overall trend remains bearish, as confirmed by the series of lower highs and lower lows visible on the chart. Expectation: Despite the bearish trend, I anticipate the possibility of a counter-rally from the current levels. However, there is a lesser probability of the price moving further down to test the next major support, which I have identified as the extreme pain point. Actionable Plan: Key Levels: The chart features clearly marked Bullish (530’4) and Bearish (527’4) lines. These serve as critical breakout zones. A break above 530’4 signals a safer entry for a long position, targeting the bullish retracement levels. A break below 527’4 confirms further downside momentum, justifying a short position, targeting the bearish support levels. Price Targets: Bearish Targets: Calculated based on support zones, with the immediate levels at 520’0 and 514’2. Bullish Targets: Based on Fibonacci retracement levels, which align precisely with key resistance areas. Conclusion: I recommend waiting for a confirmed breakout of either the Bullish Line (530’4) or the Bearish Line (527’4) before entering a position. This approach minimizes risk while capitalizing on the momentum toward clearly defined price targets.
CBOT:ZW1!
by shkspr
Unlocking the Wheat Matrix: The Code to Dominating CommoditiesUnlocking the Wheat Matrix: The Code to Dominating Commodities What if I told you there is a way to see the hidden signals of the market? To move not with the herd but ahead of it, where clarity reigns and profits follow. This week, we delve into Wheat (ZW) — a market where the COT strategy reveals its secrets. The choice is yours: read on and learn, or remain blind to the patterns all around you. Decoding the Setup Understand this: this is not an invitation to blindly leap into the market. No, we wait. Patience is the cornerstone of mastery. When the technical tools confirm the market’s strength, only then do we act. Now, let’s break down the wheat matrix: Code 1: Commercial and Small Speculator Positioning The Commercial COT Index, using a 26-week lookback, reveals that commercials are at an extreme in long positioning. At the same time, the Small Speculator COT Index shows small specs aligning at a similar extreme. In the wheat market, unlike others, we follow the small specs rather than fading them. A deviation from the norm—an anomaly in the matrix. Code 2: Commercial Extremes in Net Positioning Commercial entities are nearing their most bullish stance in three years. History whispers a truth: when commercials move like this, the market often follows. Code 3: Contrarian Signal from Investment Advisors The masses of investment advisors are overwhelmingly bearish. Against this backdrop, the extreme bullish positioning of commercials sends a powerful contrarian signal. The matrix is showing its hand. Code 4: Valuation Metrics Wheat stands undervalued against U.S. Treasuries. When value aligns with positioning, the code becomes clearer. Code 5: Seasonal Patterns Seasonal truths tell us that wheat’s true bottom often forms in early January. This aligns perfectly with the cyclical and technical signals currently emerging. Additional Signs in the Matrix Spread Divergence: Bullish spread divergence between front and next month contracts. Accumulation Indicators: Insider Accumulation Index and Williams ProGo confirm accumulation. Technical Tools: %R is in the buy zone, and Weekly Ultimate Oscillator Divergence further supports the bullish narrative. Cycles: The Recurring Patterns 44-Month Cycle: A major bottom forms now. 830-Day Cycle: Signals an upward move into March. 151/154-Day Cycles: Align with a cyclical bottom occurring now, projecting strength into March. The Red Pill of Action With these signals converging, the urge to act immediately can feel irresistible. Don’t. The matrix requires patience. Let the market reveal its strength. When the time comes, you’ll ride the wave with confidence. The Path to Mastery Trading isn’t merely a series of moves; it’s a philosophy. The COT strategy is a key, but only those who seek mastery will unlock its full potential. If you’re ready to see the market for what it truly is, join Tradius Trades. Here, we don’t just navigate the matrix of commodities—we redefine it. Are you ready to free your mind?
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
Wheat Futures Are at a Crossroads – Here’s What I’m SeeingAlright, here’s where things stand with wheat futures, and this one feels like it’s balancing on a knife’s edge. We’re sitting right around 571, and honestly, the chart could break either way. Moments like these can be exciting, but they’re also where preparation makes all the difference—whether you catch the right move or get left chasing after it. If the price drops below 564, we could see it slide down to 554, 543, and maybe even 535. This kind of move would likely mean that supplies are holding strong, or demand is weaker than expected. It might not happen all at once, but once that first level breaks, sellers could pile on, and each support level below becomes the next stop on the way down. It’s like the market testing where buyers are willing to step back in. But if the bulls get their act together and push above 600, the game changes. That’s the kind of breakout that could attract a lot of momentum and send prices heading toward 620. It wouldn’t take much—maybe bad weather affecting crops or surprising export numbers—and suddenly, we’d see buyers jump back in with force. When a psychological level like 600 cracks, traders love to pile on, and things can move quickly. This is one of those trades where you’ll want to stay sharp. Just watch the levels, have a plan, and let the market show you the way. Whether it’s a slide down or a breakout higher, there’s opportunity either way. If this breakdown helped, like, boost, follow, and drop a comment—always better when we trade together. Mindbloome Trader
CBOT:ZW1!
by Mindbloome-Trading
WHEAT, start planting now for a MASSIVE HARVEST...WHEAT: BOUNTIFUL HARVEST SOON... if you seed at the current price range. KEY NOTES: WEEKLY DESCENDING TRENDLINE BREAKOUT. Monthly shifting price lines. HUGE HINT! Weekly histogram higher lows. MONTHLY HISTOGRAM SHIFT -- CLOSING UP TO BREAK SOON. SEEDED LONG (long term) 628.0 TAYOR. Safeguard capital always. ----------------- RELATED NEWS: WSJ ARTICLE: Severe Drought Stunts Great Plains Wheat Crops Harvest in nation’s breadbasket forecast to be the worst in 60-plus years June 17, 2023 10:09 am ET
PEPPERSTONE:WHEATLong
by JSAL
1
Is This the Beginning of a Global Food Crisis?Wheat, a cornerstone of global food security, is facing unprecedented challenges. Rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and geopolitical tensions are converging to create a perfect storm for wheat production. The result? A significant wheat rally that could have far-reaching implications. Climate Change's Impact: As the planet warms, wheat-growing regions are becoming increasingly vulnerable. Extreme heat and unpredictable weather patterns are disrupting harvests and reducing yields. This is especially pronounced in Europe, where persistent rainfall and heatwaves have devastated crops. Global Supply Chain Disruptions: The war in Ukraine, coupled with export restrictions and transportation challenges, has further strained global wheat supplies. This has led to a surge in demand for wheat from other regions, exacerbating the price increase. The Looming Food Security Threat: The rising cost of wheat, a key ingredient in many staple foods, poses a significant threat to food security, particularly in developing countries. As prices continue to climb, access to affordable food becomes increasingly difficult for millions. The Road Ahead: The future of wheat production and global food security is uncertain. The world must adapt to the changing climate, invest in sustainable agricultural practices, and develop strategies to mitigate the risks posed by geopolitical tensions. The stakes are high, and the time for action is now.
ICEEUR:WHT1!Long
by signalmastermind
Can We Unravel the Mysteries of Wheat Market Stability?In an era of interconnectedness and unprecedented challenges, the global wheat market stands as a critical linchpin of food security. Its intricate interplay of supply, demand, and geopolitical factors has profound implications for the world's ability to feed itself. The wheat market, a cornerstone of global agriculture, is subject to numerous forces that can disrupt its equilibrium. Climate change, with its increasing frequency of extreme weather events, poses a significant threat to wheat production. Droughts, floods, and heatwaves can devastate crops, leading to shortages and price volatility. Additionally, the geopolitical landscape is fraught with tensions that can impact wheat trade. Conflicts, sanctions, and trade disputes can disrupt supply chains, limiting access to essential food commodities. Moreover, the growing global population, coupled with changing dietary habits, is placing increasing pressure on wheat production. As incomes rise, consumers are demanding more diverse and protein-rich diets, which can drive up demand for wheat-based products. This increased demand, combined with the challenges posed by climate change and geopolitical instability, creates a perfect storm of uncertainty for the wheat market. The future of wheat, and by extension, the global food system, hangs in the balance. Can we unravel the enigma of wheat market stability, or will the challenges posed by this vital commodity prove insurmountable? The answer to this question will determine the extent to which we can ensure food security for generations to come.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by signalmastermind
2
Grain Market and Bread Prices - Its Potential TrendIn today’s tutorial, we will track the potential prices of this important staple, wheat, which is used to make our bread. In these studies, we will use a combination of technical analysis and fundamental developments to support this view. Chicago SRW Wheat Futures & Options Ticker: ZW Minimum fluctuation: 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:USIRYYLong
by konhow
2
Momentum Trading In Agricultural CommoditiesMomentum trading, a strategy as old as the markets themselves, has found fertile ground in the sprawling fields of agricultural commodities. As the seasons change, so do the prices of wheat, corn, soybeans, and other staples, tracing patterns as predictable as the migration of birds or the spring blossom. This paper delves into these seasonal trends, uncovering how they can serve as reliable signals for astute investors looking to harness the power of momentum trading. SEASONAL TRENDS IN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES Mint Finance has previously highlighted some of these seasonal trends in Corn and Soybean in detail previously In short, seasonal cycles in crop performance are linked to crop harvest cycles. Pre-harvest, inventory drawdowns tend to drive price higher while post-harvest, a glut of inventory tends to drive prices lower. Corn Corn prices start declining in June following the harvest in China (second largest corn producer) and Brazil (third largest corn producer). Prices reach their lowest in October, coinciding with the harvest in the US. Over the past five years, corn prices have increased in the first half of the year before declining sharply in late June. In 2024, indexed price performance shows prices sharply lagging the seasonal trend as we approach the date on which prices generally declined the last five years. Wheat Wheat seasonality is less pronounced than other agri-commodities due to its relatively global distribution. Still, wheat prices generally rise during the first part of the year before declining in late June as all the major producers - China, Indian, EU, Russia, and US harvest crops during this period. This year, wheat prices started the year off on a bearish note. After bottoming in early-March, prices started to rise sharply peaking in late-May. Mint Finance covered some of the factors behind this rally in a previous paper (Extreme Weather Sends Wheat Prices Surging). Prices have started to normalize in June, a few weeks before the seasonal price decline generally begins. Soybean Soybean prices generally rise during the first part of the year. In late-June, as the Brazil harvest reaches its peak, prices decline sharply. Prices remain subdued until September when the US crop is harvested. This year, prices have sharply lagged their seasonal performance. Despite the rally in early-May driven by flooding in Brazil, prices remain lower than their level at the start of 2024. Moreover, the rally following the flood-driven rally has retraced a few weeks before the seasonal price decline generally takes place. MOMENTUM TRADING IN AGRICULUTAL COMMODITIES Investors can execute momentum trading strategies by leveraging these seasonal trends. In this context, momentum trading strategy refers to a relatively simple trading strategy where investors either buy or sell a futures contract at the start of the month based on the seasonal price performance during that month. For instance, if seasonal trends show that June generally results in a price decline, the strategy would consist of going short on the commodity at the start of June and closing the position at the end of the month. Although, at face value, this strategy may seem overly simplistic, its return and accuracy are surprisingly high. The simulations are based on a position in the front-month futures, consisting of one contract of the agricultural commodity, opened at the beginning of the month and closed at the end. Corn For Corn, running the momentum trading strategy would have yielded average annual returns of USD 8,500 per year over the past five years (2019-2023). Crucially, performance of this strategy in 2024 is sharply lower as it would yield total PnL of just USD 63 this year. Wheat Similarly, for wheat, this strategy returned an average PnL of 4,650 per year during 2019-2023. So far in 2024, this strategy would have yielded USD 6,600 in wheat futures in 2024. Soybean In Soybean futures, momentum trading would have been the most successful over the past five years. This strategy would have yielded an average of USD 13,600 per year between 2019 and 2023. However, in 2024, this strategy would not have been successful as it would have resulted in a loss of USD 8,700 so far. SUMMARY AND 2024 PERFORMANCE It is clear that although this strategy is successful on a long timeframe, it is not necessarily profitable each month. For instance, the Soybean momentum trading strategy would have resulted in a loss in 2024 while Corn momentum trading strategy would have resulted in flat returns. The reason behind this divergence from seasonal trend is clear when comparing the seasonal price performance charts at the start of the paper. Fundamental factors can result in broad-based trends throughout the year which can skew returns. For instance, as Soybean prices have been declining for most of 2024, a long position would have resulted in a loss regardless of seasonal trends. As such, it is crucial to supplement this strategy using fundamental inputs on what the long-term price trend for the crop is. For a crop which is in a down-cycle, a long position would not make sense and vice versa. In the near-term, all three crop’s prices tend to decline during July based on seasonal trends. However, the outlook for corn is most bearish. The latest WASDE report , suggested that USDA expects global corn production in marketing year 2024-2025 to reach 1,220.5 million metric tons compared to a forecast of 1,219.93 million MT last month. The increase in production comes from forecast for higher output from Ukraine and Zambia more than offsetting the decline in Russia. Moreover, USDA forecasts a season average price of USD 4.4 per bushel which is lower than the current futures price of USD 4.57. Asset managers are also shifting their view on corn prices bearish once again as COT report showed asset managers increasing net short positioning last week. Both fundamental and seasonal factors support a price decline in corn over the next month. However, seasonal trends are not exact. Particularly in 2024, seasonal trends have underperformed their usual returns from the last five years. Investors can opt to use options instead of futures to express the same view of weakening prices. Options provide fixed downside risk and require only an upfront premium, avoiding the need to manage margins as futures prices fluctuate. A long put position in CME corn options expiring on August 23 (ZCU24) can be used to gain downside exposure. CME Corn puts are relatively cheaper compared to calls. Moreover, options IV (measured by the CVOL index) is lower compared to the peaks seen during the same time last year. An options position would benefit from both falling prices and rising IV. Source: CVOL A long put options position on corn futures presents fixed downside of USD 464 (USc 9.29 x 5000/100) and unlimited upside. A strike price of USc 430/bushel represents delta of -0.29. This position would break-even at USc 420/bushel. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by mintdotfinance
Corn,Price actions didnt hold up last week..Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Turning bearish on this one..wheat could be as well..it seems like trying to push lower with the toppish pattern that you are seeing on h4... Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
CShort
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Corn and Wheat to look for long...why?Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Why? will share my thoughts in my trading analysis this week. Technical wise yes,part of it. Do check it out ;) Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
CLong
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
WheatUSD Oanda Buying Breakout Trend ContinuesRealising my folly from my previous trade, I recognised my faults. Recap - 1st - I traded with the Higher Time Frame and Entry Time Frame Trends, but I am actually entering on a opposing trend against the Lower Time Frame, and that is why the price never move in my intended direction after hours. The opposing trend movement is also a sign that price is tanking, and that the Big Boys might not be into this product anymore. 2nd - Trade Breakout Trends was my thang. But I subconsciously/consciously shifted my setups to Trend Following which is to buy high and sell higher. Low winrate, needs to gather a ton of trades before the results show, stressful way to trade. I recognised my fault and now I shifted myself back to Breakout Trends. I would like to add on also that, I would see this as a price game instead of a time frame game. But I also recognise that 50/60MA on the 15Minutes Time Frame is very powerful, and I called it Duck Hunting and I would be hunting ducks again, on the 15 Minutes Time Frame. Would I trade on the 4H Time Frame or the Hourly? It's a price game so as long as the price is right, and it aligns with my point 1 and 2, I would. 2019SGT 22052024
OANDA:WHEATUSDLong
by ProfessionalDuckHunter
Extreme Weather Sends Wheat Prices SurgingWheat plays a critical role in global agriculture and trade. Extreme weather has turned wheat prices bullish, rising more than 22% in a month after having languished for more than two years. After reaching their lowest level in more than three years in March 2024, prices have rebounded strongly. Wheat rally is driven by extreme weather events in multiple places compounded by supply-demand imbalances. Wheat rally is far from over. The May 2024 WASDE report painted a surprisingly positive outlook for wheat, suggesting an increase in US production. Outlook may be too optimistic, making revisions likely. Prices face risk to the upside once weather impact is comprehensively reassessed. This paper posits a long position in wheat options benefiting not only from price appreciation and from expanding volatility. WASDE PAINTS A POSITIVE WHEAT OUTLOOK Recent WASDE report provides initial forecasts for 2024/25 marketing year (MY24/25) and updates projections for the current MY. These updates are crucial for estimating ending stocks which will be carried over to the next year. Global production is expected to grow 1.3% in the upcoming MY to 798.19MT. Projections are even more optimistic for the US crop. USDA expects US wheat production in MY24/25 to be 3% higher YoY and total supplies to be almost 6% higher YoY. Source: USDA WHEAT CROPS ARE GETTING IMPACTED BY SEVERE WEATHER Russia is the largest wheat exporter commanding 24% of total global exports. Russia has been hit by severe frost and cold. Three of Russia’s key grain producing regions have declared a state of emergency, stating that May frost has caused severe damage to crops, reports Reuters . This year’s crop output will be lower. Frost linked damage follows record hot April which also harmed wheat crops. The USDA has reduced its outlook for Russian wheat production by 3.5MT which might be an underestimate given widespread damage. WASDE report was released merely two days after Russia declared emergency, leaving USDA with little to no time to assess the impact. STOCKS-TO-USE NEAR ALL-TIME-LOW Data Source: PSD Stocks to Use levels at major wheat exporters is currently at a 16-year low at 13.8%. It is expected to drop further to a record low of 12.4% in the upcoming MY24/25. Low stocks-to-use ratio suggests that supplies are tight. Ending stocks are low relative to total consumption. Low stock-to-use ratios make prices extremely sensitive to minor shocks in physical markets. MANAGED MONEY HAVE REVERSED COURSE ON WHEAT BEARISHNESS Sentiment is shifting rapidly. Asset managers have been net short on wheat futures since 2022. This trend has reversed sharply over the last month with asset managers cutting short positioning by 70%. Net short positioning is at its lowest level since October 2022. Last week, asset managers continued to reduce their short positioning (down 35% over the past month) while also increasing their long positioning. Source: CME QuikStrike Bullish sentiment prevails with a put/call ratio of 0.57 in wheat options. Calls dominate both near-term and later contracts. Recent options market trading has been bullish for later expires. Despite strong rally, implied volatility is lower than the levels seen last year and even during late 2022 signalling potential IV expansion. Source: CME CVOL HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Wheat faces multifaceted upside risks stemming from weather-driven uncertainty and damage which may not have been factored into USDA’s supply outlook. Wheat supply also faces the risk of disruption from record low stocks-to-use ratio. Wheat prices are up 22% over the last one month. A long futures position may be impacted negatively by a near-term correction. Instead, a long call position offers limited downside and substantial upside from expanding volatility and rising prices. TradingView recently launched options suite brings traders a raft of options analytical tools. Wheat options chain can be visualised clearly. Options IV across a range of expiries to identify key strike levels can also be visualised. Strategy simulator enables evaluation of various strategies intuitively by visualizing the payoff based on not only price but also expansion or contraction of IV or time-decay. The above hypothetical trade setup shows the payoff for a simple long call position in OZWU24 contract expiring on 23/August at a strike price of 750. The premium for this option as of 17/May stood at 33 cents/bushel which results in a premium of USD 1,650 for a full options contract consisting of 5,000 bushels. The above position breaks even at USc 783. If IV expands by 2%, the position would break even at USc 778. Assuming constant IV, the: • trade delivers profit of 1,850, if prices rise to 820. • option expires worthless leading to a loss of 1,650 if prices remain below strike. The options simulator features simple and intuitive interface enabling visualization of common options strategies. The tool also enables users to easily create and customize trading strategies. Alternative to a long call, the bull call spread provides a pre-determined maximum profit and loss. The long call benefits from price rise and volatility expansion. While short call offsets long call premium reducing potential losses. However, the profit potential is limited because any appreciation beyond the short call strike is negated by equivalent losses from the short position. Bull Call Spread consists of a long call at a strike of USc 680 and a short call at a higher strike of USc 700. The width of the spread is set at 2 (700-680), a wider range can offer higher upside and reward/risk ratio, but it is only viable when the expected move is large. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by mintdotfinance