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Wheat

Wheat Futures ( ZW1! ), H1 Bullish rise!Type : Bullish rise Resistance : 1105'2 Pivot: 1081'4 Support : 1065 Preferred Case: With price moving above the ichimoku cloud and and the recent break of the descending trendline which signifies bullish momentum, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance in line with the 1105'2 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and swing high resistance from our pivot of 1081'4 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal overlap support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1065 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal pullback support. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Genesiv
Wheat Futures ( ZW1! ), H1 Bearish dip!Type : Bearish drop Resistance : 1105'2 Pivot: 1080'2 Support : 1042'4 Preferred Case: With price expected to reverse off the stochastics indicator, we see a potential bearish continuation from our pivot level of 1080'2 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance towards our 1st support level of 1042'4 which is in line with the horizontal swing low support and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level of 1105'2 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by Genesiv
Why has the Russian ruble not collapsed yet? Russia’s efforts to prop up the ruble appears to be working despite sanctions imposed by Western countries aimed at cutting the Kremlin’s access to external resources and crippling the nation’s ability to fund its war against Ukraine.   Last week, the ruble surged to a more than two-year high against the euro and the US dollar, recouping its losses during the war. The rally was triggered by Russia’s last-ditch attempt to avoid defaulting on a eurobond on Friday.   Russia’s finance ministry paid $564.8 million in interest on a 2022 eurobond and $84.4 million on another 2042 bond, the ministry said Friday. Both payments were made in US dollars, marking a reversal from its previous threat to pay its debts in rubles.   To begin this week, the ruble has continued its strong performance, with the USDRUB down almost 3%. As it stands, Rubles are exchanging hands at less than 69 per USD. Rating cut to selective default Prior to the payment of these bonds, Russia had earlier paid its dollar-denominated bonds in rubles, triggering a rating downgrade by S&P Global Ratings to “selective default.”   The rating agency said investors won’t likely be able to convert those payments into dollars equivalent to the amount due as sanctions on Russia are predicted to worsen in the coming weeks.     Gas for ruble In a bid to bolster the ruble and retaliate against Western sanctions, Russia, one of the top oil-producing countries worldwide, required “unfriendly” buyers of the country’s natural gas to pay in rubles. While many European Union leaders were quick to reject the Kremlin’s demands, one of Germany’s biggest energy companies, Uniper, said it was ready to buy Russian gas by converting its euro payments into roubles.   "We consider a payment conversion compliant with sanctions law and the Russian decree to be possible," a spokesman was quoted by BBC as saying recently, adding that the absence of Russian gas “would have dramatic consequences for our economy.”   Russian national energy giant Gazprom recently cut off its gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria due to their refusal to pay in rubles.   Commodity powerhouse Many countries’ reliance on Russian oil and other commodities like wheat has helped the ruble avoid collapse and may play a role in supporting the currency moving forward.   Vyacheslav Volodin, a top Russian lawmaker, over a month ago said Russia should demand ruble payments for other commodities like wheat, fertilizer, and lumber, adding that Western governments have to pay for their decisions to sanction Russia.  
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by BlackBull_Markets
4
10 yr KC Wheat potential10yr KC Wheat outlook: Potential course of the KC Wheat market for the next 10 years. Overall the Wheat chart takes a more gradual incline up over the past 50 years but when the market gets spooked, prices can rally in a violant way. After this market tops, I feel the World’s supply and demand fundamentals of all Ag Commodities could support a more gradual transition lower for wheat if food security and shortages remain elevated. The market should remain very sensitive for another few years. Sensitive to world demand and production misses across the globe. There are many climate cycles coming ahead that could add to potential Ag production shortages. Wheat is used for food, Corn and beans have other purposes that could influence more volatile markets ahead for them… **Not a prediction, something to watch**
CBOT:KE1!
by mtb1980
Apr 5, 22 Wheat Go Long My FriendsI've been watching whaet for a while now waiting for a bottom. Hopefully last week was the bottom. I put a Buy Order in at 1000 on Friday and wheat is slowly moving up. With the war and drought going on, spring planting is screwed in Ukraine and Russia which account for about 25% of the worlds wheat. I'm in this one for the long haul - hoping wheat will keep going up to 1300, maybe higher once the world realizes there is going to be a massive shortage. Stay safe. Heiko
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
6
Profiting From Higher Food Prices and Shortages in 2022March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb, and April showers bring May flowers. In the northern hemisphere, farmers are now planting the crops that will feed the world after the fall harvest season. Mother Nature is typically the primary determinate of agricultural products as the weather conditions determine if there will be enough supplies to feed the ever-growing global population. As the world addresses climate change, corn and soybeans requirements for biofuel have put additional upside pressure on prices over the past years. Moreover, rising inflation has increased production costs. The war in Ukraine presents a unique set of concerns for the products that provide nutrition and fuel. Grains and oilseeds are going into the 2022 US crop year at very high prices The weather is secondary as the war in Ukraine threatens supplies Higher prices in the US- The potential for famine in other regions Food shortages lead to political change Beans above the teens, corn in the double digits, and wheat explosions could be on the horizon in 2022 and beyond In 2021, a composite of grain, oilseed, and other leading agricultural products rose 29.71%. In Q1 2022, the composite moved another 18.89% higher. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices are sky-high in early April 2022 as the seeds go into the ground, and the prospects for even higher prices are rising each day. Grains and oilseeds are going into the 2022 US crop year at very high prices Nearby May CBOT corn futures settled at $7.4875 on March 31, up 26.21% in Q1. The chart shows corn’s price was higher on April 8 at the $7.6875 per bushel level. Corn’s all-time high was in 2012 at $8.4375, and the coarse grain reached $8 in March before correcting. Nearby CBOT soybean futures settled at $16.18250 per bushel on March 31, posting a 21.79% gain in Q1 2022. Soybean futures were higher at around the $16.89 level on April 8 after reaching a high of $17.65 in February 2022. In 2012, the beans reached a record high of $17.9475 per bushel. CBOT soft red winter wheat is the most liquid wheat futures contract and a global price benchmark. The CBOT wheat rallied 20.34% in 2021 and was 30.52% higher in Q1 2022. The CBOT wheat settled at $10.06 per bushel on March 31 and was at over the $10.50 level on April 8. The wheat futures rose to a high of $13.40 in May, eclipsing the 2008 $13.3450 per bushel record peak. As the seeds go into the ground in the US and other growing regions in the northern hemisphere, prices are at multi-year highs and not far from record levels. The weather is secondary as the war in Ukraine threatens supplies The weather typically causes price volatility during the annual planting and growing seasons. However, 2022 is anything but a typical year. Rising inflation has caused input prices to soar, pushing land values, rents, financing costs, energy, labor, equipment, seed, and other expenses higher. Moreover, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has transformed Europe’s breadbasket into mine and battlefields. Russia and Ukraine export one-third of the world’s annual wheat requirements and substantial amounts of corn, barley, and other agricultural products. The Black Sea ports, a critical logistical hub in the region, is a war zone. Meanwhile, Russia retaliated against sanctions by “temporarily” banning fertilizer exports, sending prices higher, and limiting availabilities. The lack of fertilizers will translate to lower global crop yields. In April 2022, the weather is secondary to the geopolitical landscape for the commodities that feed the world. Higher prices in the US- The potential for famine in other regions In the US, consumers will pay much higher prices for food in the coming months and years. However, as a world-leading agricultural producer, the US food supply is likely to fulfill domestic requirements, barring any catastrophic weather events. Other regions worldwide could face food shortages leading to famine. In a sign that Russia may cut off agricultural exports, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the West’s sanctions would make Russia keep a close eye on its food exports to hostile countries. The Russian leader said, “They will inevitably exacerbate food shortages in the poorest regions of the world, spur new waves of migration, and in general drive food prices even higher.” Even if Russia continues to export to some countries, the production loss caused by the war looks likely to be substantial. Food shortages lead to political change When governments cannot feed people, revolutions tend to follow. The French Revolution that cost the last French Queen’s head began as bread riots in Paris. More recently, the 2010 Arab Spring came two years after wheat reached its previous record high. Bread riots in Tunisia and Egypt caused by rising prices and falling availability caused the sweeping political change in North Africa and the Middle East. Inflation, the war in Ukraine, and sanctions on Russia will have severe ramifications for supplies over the coming years. Feeding people is a government’s primary task, and hungry citizens quickly lose patience with their leaders. Beans above the teens, corn in the double digits, and wheat explosions could be on the horizon in 2022 and beyond Soybean futures first traded in the teens in 2008. In 1973, the oilseed futures reached a high of $12.90 per bushel, beginning the chant of “beans in the teens” from those bullish on the oilseed. While it took three and one-half decades for beans to trade in the teens, the next time they move out of the teens could be on the upside at prices above the $20 per bushel level. Corn has never traded above $8.50 per bushel, but it could head for over $10 in the current environment. CBOT wheat already reached a record high in March 2022, and higher highs could be on the horizon over the coming months and years. While the weather is secondary for the 2022 crop year, a drought, flood, or other weather events that impact the growing season and weigh on supplies could make matters worse. Anything short of a bumper crop from the US and other growing regions away from Europe’s breadbasket could be disastrous for prices and availabilities. The bull market that took the grain sector 29.71% higher in 2021 and 18.89% higher in Q1 2022 looks set to continue. The current environment limits the downside while the upside remains explosive. Risk-reward favors the upside in the commodities that feed and increasingly fuel the world. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOT:ZC1!
by Andy_Hecht
Wheat Futures ( ZW1! ), H1 Bullish Bounce!Title: Wheat Futures ( ZW1! ), H1 Bullish Bounce! Type : Bullish bounce Resistance : 1108'4 Pivot: 1071'6 Support : 1055'0 Preferred Case: Prices are at a pivot. We see the potential for a bounce from our pivot at 1071'6 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement towards our 1st resistance at 1108'4 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences. Prices are trading above our ichimoku clouds, further supporting our bullish bias. Alternative scenario: Price might continue to dip towards the 1st support level of 1055'0 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Rockqet
Wheat futures are momentum! | 7th April 2022Title: Wheat Futures (ZW1!), H4 Bearish Dip Type : Bearish Dip Resistance : 1064'0 Pivot: 1031'6 Support : 982'2 Preferred Case: Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding by a descending trendline We see the potential for a dip from our Pivot at 1031'6 in line with 50% Fibonacci Retracement towards our 1st support at 982'0 in line with 100% Fibonacci Projection . Prices are trading below our ichimoku cloud resistance, further supporting our bearish bias. Alternative scenario: Price might continue to climb towards the 1st resistance level of 1064'0 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci Projection. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by Genesiv
Wheat Futures (ZW1!), H4 Bearish DipType : Bearish Dip Resistance : 1075'6 Pivot: 1036'6 Support : 982'0 Preferred Case: Prices have approached our Pivot at 1036'6 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement. We see the potential for a dip from our Pivot at 1036'6 towards our 1st support at 982'0 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Projection. Prices are trading below our ichimoku cloud resistance, further supporting our bearish bias. Alternative scenario: Price might continue to climb towards the 1st resistance level of 1075'6 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by Genesiv
Wheat back at Key $1000 levelWheat has been the most volatile commodity since the war started and we have fallen back to $1000 as peace talks improved. Similar to Oil though peace will not fix the supply/demand issues with Ukraine and Russia accounting for 30% of wheat exports. The consolidation period is likely over and if we can get some positive price action more buyers are likely to come back to a very tight supply market. A close below $1000 would hurt bullish sentiment. easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. “Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party."
EASYMARKETS:WHTUSDLong
by easyMarkets
Wheat - 2 long / 2 Short scenarios - Good bread takes timeGeneral Wheat seems to generate a nasty SFP. It took out the recent Swing High and then dropped over 22%. With the monthly close coming soon i could image it going lower before finding support. I marked 4 Scenarios which i would be happy to take either. 1. Long (Blue arrow) Price moves to the red rectangle (area 1), finds support and "generates a swing". Price goes lower before breaking above the generated swing where i would then look on a LTF for an entry. Target: A bit under the range high SL: Depending on the LTF entry i wouldnt want to see it going lower than support Invalidation: Price breaking under area 1 Time duration: Days, weeks, months, years... ;) 2. Long (Orange arrow) Price moves under area 1 but manages to retake it. Enter on retest of area 1. Target: A bit under the range high SL: A bit under area 1 Time duration: Days, weeks, months, years... ;) 1. Short (Red arrow) Price moves under area 1 aswell level 2. Enter on retest of level 2. Target: The next big support level (Also in confluence with the 50% of the lower range. SL: A bit above level 2 Time duration: Days, weeks, months, years... ;) 2. Short (Yellow arrow) Price breaks under area 1. Enter in LTF on retest. Target: The next big support level (Also in confluence with the 50% of the lower range. SL: A bit above area 1 Time duration: Days, weeks, months, years... ;) Good luck
CBOT:ZW1!
by a_tale_of_bulls_and_bears
Wheat futures, potential for bounce! | 23rd March 2022Prices are approaching a pivot. We see the potential for a bounce from our buy entry at 1032.19 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our Take Profit at 1105.47 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is at levels where bounces previously occurred. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FX:WHEATFLong
by Rockqet