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Wheat

Wheat Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Bullish rise!Type : Bullish rise Resistance 1143'0 Pivot: 1123'0 Support : 1105'2 Preferred Case: With price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from our pivot in line with the horizontal pullback support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Genesiv
Wheat Futures ( ZW1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuationType : Bearish Continuation Resistance : 11122'2 Pivot: 1105'2 Support : 1080'4 Preferred Case: With the MACD indicating some bearish momentum, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback support from our pivot of 1105'2 in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal overlap support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance in line with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by Genesiv
THREAD #3 : Commodities Update ‼️I know it took time to get this thread update, I'm sorry for that, but here it is ! ▶️ How it works ? Ask me in comment my chart analysis of the asset you want if it didn't have already done under. If I find something intersting to say and show, I will update the idea with it. A comment of each asset expose will be post under, come react about it or debate. ▶️ Before to start I want to remind that we are in a period of conflict and news can emerge at any moment with strong effect and reaction on market. So invest carefully on this hard times and reduce your loss exposition on market when you can. Don't forget to take profit too. CRUDE OIL ✅ One of my perspectives in the last update was to see price going to the A line before to fall back rapidly, we falled but we can see we stopped just before the resistance. Precision of the market is remarquable so I keep this target in mind to get reach it in the future. For the moment we can expect a return on the 2b line, constructing a channel, even if the exact channel would be to target 3b but it can be an exageration of the market. Like each commodities update, I remind that it's a highly manipulated asset so, or stay away of it, or be very careful of your loss exposure. GOLD ✅ "The chart don't have change since the commodities update of the 20th of January. We are coming to the end of the bull scenario. I invit to take profits on the conjoncture of the resistance area and the (2c) resistance. There is no interest to sell a refuge asset like gold, even more in this time of conflict. So if there is selling signals take it like an opportunity to buy it lower. Especially here, we will wait for buying signals on the (1b) or (1a) support and the best case would be the support area of $1,700 - $1,675 but far from now." This was my exact words two months ago, I think there is nothing to add because it's exactly what is happenning. We've seen a buying pressure on (1b) but without buying volume, so no reason to buy, now we are going for the next area : the (1a) support. Wait signals, if there isn't on (1a), wait the support. SILVER ✅ Like for the gold : "I don't expect a breakout of (1b) and the resistance area, so for me we will see the construction of a range between them around $27 and $29. The biggest probability for me is a bull outcome of the range to target the (1c) resistance (scenario A) and probably more after. If we reject the resistance strongly after lateralization I expect price to go deeply retest the (1a) support around $20." Very close again from the reality, in fact, we ranged (2$ lower from my expectations). Unfortunetly we didn't got the bull outcome and strongly rejected on supply. Like expected a deep retest to the supports. Speaking of now, the close of tonight is really important cause we broke the 2b support and reacted with buying pressure on support area. If we close tonight back inside the channel (upper of (2b)), we could expect a reintegration and so with buying volume tomorrow, a confirmation of it. Else we could expect a simple pullback on the broken support (which mean short opportunities on lower timeframe) to go back lower to the expected bear scenario of 2 month ago, the $20 area. Furthermore we can see a stop hunt pattern taking place on support, nice setup to see climax. COPPER ✅ Copper have been one of the assets that I most spoke. Because of the Wyckoff Reaccumulation pattern we had, and which brought signals and targets. The last update was the failed SOS, closing the long position because of the expectation to see a pullback to the support. In fact we are going for it, we are always in between so expectations didn't changed. We will see on support if we have long signals to exploit. Maybe we could build a bigger Wyckoff pattern (reaccumulation or distribution), in this case it would be really interesting because we could exploit as long and short signals around, respectively, support and resistance. PLATINUM ✅ Very similar as silver we can observe the sames patterns, sames signals. So no much things to add, if we reintegrate we can exploit pullback on (2b), else we wait opportunity given by stop hunt to take a deeper position around $840 or $760. PALLADIUM ✅ "We made an SOS which has also failed. So technically, the biggest probability is to see it go down on the (2b) line in a first time (scenario A) maybe more with (1a) before to retest the resistance (1b)." Nothing more to add again, the plan continue to go in the right way. We are ranging around (2b), no signal for the moment so we can expect a continuation to (1a) (SCENARIO A) but it's important to stay aware about the possibility to see a Wyckoff acummulation here (SCENARIO B), no signal of it for the moment. WHEAT & CORN ✅ The master word on the last update on wheat was to take profit on ATH because of the expectation of a strong selling pressure like oil, in fact it happened. We already made half of the job to go back to the last resistance being broke. Wait signals around here to target a retest of ATH. Else each broken resistance become a nice spot to target entry. Corn is similar to it. For both, with the macroeconomic context we can expect retests of ATH. In all case stay careful, it stay heavily influenced by the macroeconomic dynamics so from news also. SUGAR ✅ A nice way to finish is to speak from the plan we had in the last update and which succeed ! We had a Wyckoff Reaccumulation Pattern, it was EXACTLY the same setup as the one on the copper which also succeed. The spot to survey was the pullback on the creek, entry signal was perfect on H4 timeframe. Target on 2:1 ratio, then second target on resistance level, then exit because of the failed SOS. It was a nice setup shared it and I'm happy of that. Let's speak of future expectation now, it's really close to the copper analysis. We will see if we could build a bigger pattern, in this case everything is exploitable ON SIGNALS always! Furthermore we stay in a monthly interest area where as Wyckoff Reaccumulation and Wyckoff Distrubution pattern could bring to a big movement. So it will be an asset to look closely on in the future. 🛑"Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions"🛑 👉 Like, follow or comment* if you like, I need it to continue ! *Speaking of comments, come ask questions, come share your point of view, come debate, I need to feel that my without counterpart work is usefull for some !
NYMEX:CL1!
by Kentg
18
Wheat Futures ( ZW1! ), H1 Bullish rise!Type : Bullish rise Resistance : 1105'2 Pivot: 1081'4 Support : 1065 Preferred Case: With price moving above the ichimoku cloud and and the recent break of the descending trendline which signifies bullish momentum, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance in line with the 1105'2 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and swing high resistance from our pivot of 1081'4 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal overlap support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1065 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal pullback support. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Genesiv
Wheat Futures ( ZW1! ), H1 Bearish dip!Type : Bearish drop Resistance : 1105'2 Pivot: 1080'2 Support : 1042'4 Preferred Case: With price expected to reverse off the stochastics indicator, we see a potential bearish continuation from our pivot level of 1080'2 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance towards our 1st support level of 1042'4 which is in line with the horizontal swing low support and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level of 1105'2 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by Genesiv
Why has the Russian ruble not collapsed yet? Russia’s efforts to prop up the ruble appears to be working despite sanctions imposed by Western countries aimed at cutting the Kremlin’s access to external resources and crippling the nation’s ability to fund its war against Ukraine.   Last week, the ruble surged to a more than two-year high against the euro and the US dollar, recouping its losses during the war. The rally was triggered by Russia’s last-ditch attempt to avoid defaulting on a eurobond on Friday.   Russia’s finance ministry paid $564.8 million in interest on a 2022 eurobond and $84.4 million on another 2042 bond, the ministry said Friday. Both payments were made in US dollars, marking a reversal from its previous threat to pay its debts in rubles.   To begin this week, the ruble has continued its strong performance, with the USDRUB down almost 3%. As it stands, Rubles are exchanging hands at less than 69 per USD. Rating cut to selective default Prior to the payment of these bonds, Russia had earlier paid its dollar-denominated bonds in rubles, triggering a rating downgrade by S&P Global Ratings to “selective default.”   The rating agency said investors won’t likely be able to convert those payments into dollars equivalent to the amount due as sanctions on Russia are predicted to worsen in the coming weeks.     Gas for ruble In a bid to bolster the ruble and retaliate against Western sanctions, Russia, one of the top oil-producing countries worldwide, required “unfriendly” buyers of the country’s natural gas to pay in rubles. While many European Union leaders were quick to reject the Kremlin’s demands, one of Germany’s biggest energy companies, Uniper, said it was ready to buy Russian gas by converting its euro payments into roubles.   "We consider a payment conversion compliant with sanctions law and the Russian decree to be possible," a spokesman was quoted by BBC as saying recently, adding that the absence of Russian gas “would have dramatic consequences for our economy.”   Russian national energy giant Gazprom recently cut off its gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria due to their refusal to pay in rubles.   Commodity powerhouse Many countries’ reliance on Russian oil and other commodities like wheat has helped the ruble avoid collapse and may play a role in supporting the currency moving forward.   Vyacheslav Volodin, a top Russian lawmaker, over a month ago said Russia should demand ruble payments for other commodities like wheat, fertilizer, and lumber, adding that Western governments have to pay for their decisions to sanction Russia.  
U
by BlackBull_Markets
4
10 yr KC Wheat potential10yr KC Wheat outlook: Potential course of the KC Wheat market for the next 10 years. Overall the Wheat chart takes a more gradual incline up over the past 50 years but when the market gets spooked, prices can rally in a violant way. After this market tops, I feel the World’s supply and demand fundamentals of all Ag Commodities could support a more gradual transition lower for wheat if food security and shortages remain elevated. The market should remain very sensitive for another few years. Sensitive to world demand and production misses across the globe. There are many climate cycles coming ahead that could add to potential Ag production shortages. Wheat is used for food, Corn and beans have other purposes that could influence more volatile markets ahead for them… **Not a prediction, something to watch**
CBOT:KE1!
by mtb1980
Apr 5, 22 Wheat Go Long My FriendsI've been watching whaet for a while now waiting for a bottom. Hopefully last week was the bottom. I put a Buy Order in at 1000 on Friday and wheat is slowly moving up. With the war and drought going on, spring planting is screwed in Ukraine and Russia which account for about 25% of the worlds wheat. I'm in this one for the long haul - hoping wheat will keep going up to 1300, maybe higher once the world realizes there is going to be a massive shortage. Stay safe. Heiko
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
6
Profiting From Higher Food Prices and Shortages in 2022March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb, and April showers bring May flowers. In the northern hemisphere, farmers are now planting the crops that will feed the world after the fall harvest season. Mother Nature is typically the primary determinate of agricultural products as the weather conditions determine if there will be enough supplies to feed the ever-growing global population. As the world addresses climate change, corn and soybeans requirements for biofuel have put additional upside pressure on prices over the past years. Moreover, rising inflation has increased production costs. The war in Ukraine presents a unique set of concerns for the products that provide nutrition and fuel. Grains and oilseeds are going into the 2022 US crop year at very high prices The weather is secondary as the war in Ukraine threatens supplies Higher prices in the US- The potential for famine in other regions Food shortages lead to political change Beans above the teens, corn in the double digits, and wheat explosions could be on the horizon in 2022 and beyond In 2021, a composite of grain, oilseed, and other leading agricultural products rose 29.71%. In Q1 2022, the composite moved another 18.89% higher. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices are sky-high in early April 2022 as the seeds go into the ground, and the prospects for even higher prices are rising each day. Grains and oilseeds are going into the 2022 US crop year at very high prices Nearby May CBOT corn futures settled at $7.4875 on March 31, up 26.21% in Q1. The chart shows corn’s price was higher on April 8 at the $7.6875 per bushel level. Corn’s all-time high was in 2012 at $8.4375, and the coarse grain reached $8 in March before correcting. Nearby CBOT soybean futures settled at $16.18250 per bushel on March 31, posting a 21.79% gain in Q1 2022. Soybean futures were higher at around the $16.89 level on April 8 after reaching a high of $17.65 in February 2022. In 2012, the beans reached a record high of $17.9475 per bushel. CBOT soft red winter wheat is the most liquid wheat futures contract and a global price benchmark. The CBOT wheat rallied 20.34% in 2021 and was 30.52% higher in Q1 2022. The CBOT wheat settled at $10.06 per bushel on March 31 and was at over the $10.50 level on April 8. The wheat futures rose to a high of $13.40 in May, eclipsing the 2008 $13.3450 per bushel record peak. As the seeds go into the ground in the US and other growing regions in the northern hemisphere, prices are at multi-year highs and not far from record levels. The weather is secondary as the war in Ukraine threatens supplies The weather typically causes price volatility during the annual planting and growing seasons. However, 2022 is anything but a typical year. Rising inflation has caused input prices to soar, pushing land values, rents, financing costs, energy, labor, equipment, seed, and other expenses higher. Moreover, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has transformed Europe’s breadbasket into mine and battlefields. Russia and Ukraine export one-third of the world’s annual wheat requirements and substantial amounts of corn, barley, and other agricultural products. The Black Sea ports, a critical logistical hub in the region, is a war zone. Meanwhile, Russia retaliated against sanctions by “temporarily” banning fertilizer exports, sending prices higher, and limiting availabilities. The lack of fertilizers will translate to lower global crop yields. In April 2022, the weather is secondary to the geopolitical landscape for the commodities that feed the world. Higher prices in the US- The potential for famine in other regions In the US, consumers will pay much higher prices for food in the coming months and years. However, as a world-leading agricultural producer, the US food supply is likely to fulfill domestic requirements, barring any catastrophic weather events. Other regions worldwide could face food shortages leading to famine. In a sign that Russia may cut off agricultural exports, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the West’s sanctions would make Russia keep a close eye on its food exports to hostile countries. The Russian leader said, “They will inevitably exacerbate food shortages in the poorest regions of the world, spur new waves of migration, and in general drive food prices even higher.” Even if Russia continues to export to some countries, the production loss caused by the war looks likely to be substantial. Food shortages lead to political change When governments cannot feed people, revolutions tend to follow. The French Revolution that cost the last French Queen’s head began as bread riots in Paris. More recently, the 2010 Arab Spring came two years after wheat reached its previous record high. Bread riots in Tunisia and Egypt caused by rising prices and falling availability caused the sweeping political change in North Africa and the Middle East. Inflation, the war in Ukraine, and sanctions on Russia will have severe ramifications for supplies over the coming years. Feeding people is a government’s primary task, and hungry citizens quickly lose patience with their leaders. Beans above the teens, corn in the double digits, and wheat explosions could be on the horizon in 2022 and beyond Soybean futures first traded in the teens in 2008. In 1973, the oilseed futures reached a high of $12.90 per bushel, beginning the chant of “beans in the teens” from those bullish on the oilseed. While it took three and one-half decades for beans to trade in the teens, the next time they move out of the teens could be on the upside at prices above the $20 per bushel level. Corn has never traded above $8.50 per bushel, but it could head for over $10 in the current environment. CBOT wheat already reached a record high in March 2022, and higher highs could be on the horizon over the coming months and years. While the weather is secondary for the 2022 crop year, a drought, flood, or other weather events that impact the growing season and weigh on supplies could make matters worse. Anything short of a bumper crop from the US and other growing regions away from Europe’s breadbasket could be disastrous for prices and availabilities. The bull market that took the grain sector 29.71% higher in 2021 and 18.89% higher in Q1 2022 looks set to continue. The current environment limits the downside while the upside remains explosive. Risk-reward favors the upside in the commodities that feed and increasingly fuel the world. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOT:ZC1!
by Andy_Hecht
Wheat Futures ( ZW1! ), H1 Bullish Bounce!Title: Wheat Futures ( ZW1! ), H1 Bullish Bounce! Type : Bullish bounce Resistance : 1108'4 Pivot: 1071'6 Support : 1055'0 Preferred Case: Prices are at a pivot. We see the potential for a bounce from our pivot at 1071'6 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement towards our 1st resistance at 1108'4 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences. Prices are trading above our ichimoku clouds, further supporting our bullish bias. Alternative scenario: Price might continue to dip towards the 1st support level of 1055'0 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Rockqet
Wheat futures are momentum! | 7th April 2022Title: Wheat Futures (ZW1!), H4 Bearish Dip Type : Bearish Dip Resistance : 1064'0 Pivot: 1031'6 Support : 982'2 Preferred Case: Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding by a descending trendline We see the potential for a dip from our Pivot at 1031'6 in line with 50% Fibonacci Retracement towards our 1st support at 982'0 in line with 100% Fibonacci Projection . Prices are trading below our ichimoku cloud resistance, further supporting our bearish bias. Alternative scenario: Price might continue to climb towards the 1st resistance level of 1064'0 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci Projection. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by Genesiv
Wheat Futures (ZW1!), H4 Bearish DipType : Bearish Dip Resistance : 1075'6 Pivot: 1036'6 Support : 982'0 Preferred Case: Prices have approached our Pivot at 1036'6 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement. We see the potential for a dip from our Pivot at 1036'6 towards our 1st support at 982'0 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Projection. Prices are trading below our ichimoku cloud resistance, further supporting our bearish bias. Alternative scenario: Price might continue to climb towards the 1st resistance level of 1075'6 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by Genesiv