Wheat
Wheat Daily and 4 hour Setup PlayThe idea can be triggered here on the 4 hour, but first let us take a look at the daily chart.
We are at an important resistance zone on the daily chart. At around the 5.82 zone. What has caught my attention is the many indecision candles we have here. The two doji candles, candles with large wicks on either side. What this shows us is that there is a battle between the bears and the bulls at this resistance zone. We should definitely be paying attention to price here.
Moving down to the 4 hour chart, and we can see there are more confluences pointing to a possible downside move, and indeed, presents us with a trigger set up. Just looking at market structure here, it shows us an uptrend with higher lows and higher highs. We have had more than two swings which is what we want to look for.
At this resistance zone, we began to range. Look at the wicks here. The fake out candles. Price began to break out but reversed and closed below the previous open highs. This is why we remain patient and await candle closes before taking trades. This fake out trapped many traders to the upside.
We can also say that not only do we have a range here, but in fact, one can make an argument that there is a double top/ triple top at this level. Another good pattern we look for potential trend exhaustion. Putting those two together, the topping pattern and at a resistance level, already give us a good possibility of a downward move.
What we are now awaiting is for a break below this flip zone here (area that has been both support and resistance) at 5.620. Going back and looking to the left, you can see the importance of this zone with multiple touches. We have had a bounce at this zone but I am looking for a reversal and then a break below the flip zone. This would create our first lower high swing that we can work with in a new down trend. Price does seem ready to roll over.
On the fundamental side, there are stories now about supply chains being disrupted due to the virus. Hearing about rice farming and other crop farming being halted in parts of Asia. Stories like this are out of our hands, but can go against this trade idea. We shall await the developments and see if we get the break.
Week 13/Su - ZW1! - WeekendMost bullish commercials have been in 20 years, im loading up my entire boat with wheat futures
Week 13/Su - IP1! - The Greatest DepressionMost bullish commercials have been in 20 years, im loading up my entire boat with spring wheat futures
Wheat / Trendline RetestIt"s not just grocery shoppers who are hoarding pantry staples.
Some governments are moving to secure domestic food supplies during the
corona virus pandemic . (Bloomberg)
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Wheat Futures Forecast: Buy the pullbacksFundamentally:
According to the Financial Times’ report:
Shoppers’ rush to stock up on non-perishable staples such as pasta and noodles to ride out the coronavirus crisis has boosted demand for wheat, which has risen sharply in futures markets on both sides of the Atlantic.
Prices have been supported by increased buying by flour millers while in France, shoppers have stockpiled baguettes to freeze, leading some bakeries to ration the nation’s favourite bread.
Wheat prices have also been lifted by efforts among various governments to add to strategic inventories. “The north Africans are buying a lot of grain. Stocks are moving from France to Algeria,” said Abdolreza Abbassian, senior economist at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.
Heavy falls in emerging market currencies have also revived memories of 2010, when drought and a sharp drop in the rouble prompted Russia — the world’s leading wheat exporter — to ban shipments of grains for almost a year. Last week there were jitters in the market caused by speculation that Moscow and Kyiv were considering similar measures.
Levels as mentioned on the chart
People Need move Food During the Corona VirusDuring the coronavirus, the Demand for certain commodities like Wheat will Increase drastically.
Curfews, lockdowns, Marial Law = People stay home and eat more = rush on Supermarkets for breads, flour etc.
Price gonna head way up!
bearish breakout on Wheat, D1As you can see on the chart, it looks like we have seen a bearish breakout constellation. Over half a year we were in a bullish upside trend, which now got broken by price. First T/P should be around a 0.6 fib level.
This is a long term trade idea, so let price run and see if it works out.
Remember, trading is a business of probability.
Wheat Reversal Pattern FormingA simple idea. Wheat is showing a head and shoulders reversal pattern. On the daily, we did break out but that has not been sustained.
We can see fake out patterns on both the daily chart and the 4 hour chart.
Here on the 4 hour, we are awaiting a break of the neckline. This would also confirm our first lower high swing (the right shoulder of the pattern).
First target would be the flip/demand zone in blue.
For now, we await the break.
Wheat down to $5.70 and then up to $5.81, Long Term BullI am long term bullish but I see a nice test of the trend line which may act as resistance. Potentially a drop just below to grab a little liquidity and then a continuation move to the higher side back to $5.81. I am seeing the 4hr macd dropping and RSI within range to drop more.
This is my first wheat chart, dont get too excited.
This is not trading advice.
Kansas Cory Wheat Short Opportunity Off Of HighsLooking at a short opportunity with KC Wheat being at highs of 500’s I also look for other conditions.
1- divergence on almost all Macro time frames including the daily , and indecision here on monthly and weekly timeframes.
2-seasonal historic patterns showing a time where commercials can flip position to net buyers meaning they are hedging against the speculators that can drive prices back down
3-momentum looks weak up there
Let’s see what happens all I am short one calendar spread from here. Good luck !
Hard Red Winter Wheat: Sell Opportunity on the 1W Resistance.The price is testing the 499'4 1W Resistance after a prolonged rise since the rebound on the 380'4 1W Support. We've made a Double Top on the 1D chart which remains bullish (RSI = 65.798, MACD = 12.030, ADX = 55.290, Highs/Lows = 2.8750). However MACD is forming a top on a bearish reversal pattern. We are expecting a strong rejection after that Double Top and our Target Zone is 393'2 - 380'4.
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8:14:01 pm EST Monday, January 6, 2020 Montréal, Quebec, Canadaupdate only to show a negative balance at the moment.
Long Term Prospects for WHEATUSDThe WHEATUSD, symbol ZW, is in a rally within a Bear Market with price trading above the 50 week ema and the 200 ema, but below the 800 week ema. The the long term emas are mostly flat, signaling accumulation / distribution. The price action appears to be finishing up the e-wave of a b-wave which should resolve in a c-wave down into late Spring. There is a definite Seasonal aspect to this market with strong rallies that occur around June time frame.
The Market is in a Bull Market on the daily, with price above the 50 ema, which is above the 200 and 800 emas. The 50 ema is in a strong uptrend along with the long term emas.. Price is topping out in the c-wave of a a-b-c rally and looks like it is putting in a M-Top. Price can be considered to be in an uptrend as long as it is above 549’2.
The Market is in a Bull Market on the 4 hour, with price trading back above the 50 ema, which is above the 200 ema, and above the 800 ema. Price is now technically correcting, having pulled back to the 30 ema, which is a warning. This market is out of E-waves. Probably trade up in the back end of the coming week to finish out an M-Top formation, before starting a greater down-trend.
This is my WHEATUSD look ahead for my own trading purposes. FUTURES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
Buy July 20 Wheat KBCT (KE) and Sell July 20 Wheat CBOT (ZW) Buy July 20 Wheat KBCT (KE) and Sell July 20 Wheat CBOT (ZW) against it
Close around January 20th
Montréal, Qc, Canada UTC-05:00 4:48 PM Monday December 30,2019Hello
Only one day left before 2020.
This is just an update.
Thank you.
Higher Price for WHEAT?I've been watching that triangle fill out for years now. Maybe that grey trendline is the prevailing trade direction, but there is every chance this break could fail like it has previously and return to fill out the triangle further. Time will tell.
