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Wheat

Wheat No Play yetPrice did not develop as per our preferred path during last week and broke through the downside of our ascending price channel. This makes us feel less comfortable although the critical supportive level of 450 remains intact for now. However, with the price making a move down last week we will only start feeling more comfortable if price breaks the 480 level and settles above decisively. For now price is rather in an area that is probably best described as 'the jungle from where we do not see the exit' and we should rather hold back for now and see when price gets out of that jungle and, especially, on what side.
CBOT:ZWN2016
by Remko
1
RunningAlpha Upgrades Commodity Markets Update to Priority ListRunningAlpha dot com Capital Markets Intelligence High Priority Update for Monday, May 2nd, 2016 Although $39 and $36.50 remains baseline intermediate to long-term support for Light Crude Oil ( in reference to June Contract Pricing ), the recent advance upwards has opened the door for a further short covering rally upwards to $62 to $65, and perhaps $74 to $76 levels if on a spike. Bullish window for buying on dips extends into at least June period -- this also applies to Brent Crude. Russian Stock Market ( $RSX ) looks bullish during this period. Oil and Gas Drilling stocks will likely continue higher on balance -- particularly a core position in stocks like $PBR.A would be sensible, which should also benefit from a continued bullish run in Brazilian Equities ( which I expect Brazilian equities should trend higher into the summer, and again later in the fall to close out the year much higher ). Among many other equities in Latin America, $ARCO and $KOF also have a strong bullish bias with sentiment conviction windows extending into foreseeable future. Other Commodity Markets showing very significant sentiment strength going forward are in the Agricultural complex -- Soybean, particularly Soybean Meal $SOYB, Rice, Corn $CORN, Cotton $BAL and Coffee ( $JO is ETF -- when above $18.02 and especially when trading above above $19.00, then $27 is interim target ), and even wheat to some degree. Equities that would benefit from a rise in these commodity markets should have a tail-wind. Silver and Gold stocks, which RunningAlpha.com has been bullish on for a few months now, still shows signs of strength on pullbacks. Sourced from premium sentiment conviction list on RunningAlpha dot com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by runningalpha
Wheat short play opportunityThe price of CBoT MAY16 wheat develops and interesting short play opportunity here, same although going short in the lower regions usually is not to be recommended. Price has started to create a descending price range channel during late January with lower highs and lower lows. The candle of March 2 is a bit contradictory in the sense that price made a lower low again but one could classify the shape and position of the candle as a 'Hammer', be it not a perfect one. Price made a solid move up of some 2% on March 3 which pushed price straight to the upper boundaries of the descending channel where the upper trend-line (in red) coincides with the horizontal (in black) line. This line was support to price during 4-7 January and during 8-12 February but same support was broken quite decisively on February 23. Now the same horizontal line offers resistance to price together with the earlier mention (red) upper trend line of the price channel. A short play entry is being offered here with stop at 476 basis intra-day or at 466 basis end-of-day. First target 430 which is a 5% swing down from here and where at least half the position will be closed. As soon as there is a bit of profit in the position we trail the stop down to entry level in order to protect our capital.
CBOT:ZWK2016Short
by Remko
Wheat preparing for a shot to the sky again?It's all in place for a new potential turn... Context From extreme top to center to extreme low again. And here we are, at the L-MLH (Lower Medianline Parallel). We had a nice push through the upper ML-H. And so we can expect the same below here (dashed red sliding). In these higher timeframes we can see very good how price is reacting within a fork, which represents nothing more the a function of Newtons Law (Action/Reaction). Price Action A real pressing at the U-MLH of the red downsloping fork. See the WRB around 2010? This rocket bar gives information...see where the support was later since 2014. Trade Idea Potential turn to the north could be within the green zone. I allways prefere to wait for a sign, like a break of the red U-MLH and take the PB if i have a good stop. Alltough, here i would take it at the red sliding too, with my stop behind the green lines. Peace!
WLong
by Tr8dingN3rd
CORN DOWNTREND WILL CONTINUE, BUT IT WILL END IF WATER SHORTAGE Both corn and wheat downtrend will continue. Since Dollar is very strong, agriculture is flourishing, oil is cheap, and is going to get cheaper, Corn and Wheat prices will go lower. There's no shortage of food, and it will continue to be like that in the next period. Unless something bad happens this summer, in terms of weather, Prices will go lower. The other possibility of this going higher is due to lack of water in some regions, like California: www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com Lack of water around the world could be possible due to more factors, but I will start with this: www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com Also, glaciers forming more in asia, it has to do with water retreating, possible global freezing, instead of global warming: www.livescience.com www.globalresearch.ca www.globalclimatescam.com www.thelongview.com.au dailycaller.com nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com iceagenow.info Also, there appears to be water barons buying all water: www.bibliotecapleyades.net www.blacklistednews.com www.zerohedge.com Also, why is global warming a pseudoscience: www.bibliotecapleyades.net So this means, short now commodities while you still can, and watch out for lower production in the coming years because of lack of water around the world that can trigger lack of food and so, rising prices in all commodities. If on 1 month chart, highest high for corn is near 850, it can go in the future to 1600, 2000 or more, but that likely in 2 years or more, and that if farmers won't get water. Short, short term, Long, long term. Breaking the wedge indicates potential short target of 340, and longer target to 320. Breaking above 50 day EMA at 370 indicates possible long, and getting out of the wedge and breaking 200 day EMA at 385 indicates longs to unknown potential. This is ZCN2015 futures on corn chart, same as ZC1! idea. (Made this idea again because on zcn2015 posting it in forum posts it with chart, unlike zc1!, which is posted with link.) That is all.
CBOT:ZCN2015Short
by justaname
2
CORN DOWNTREND WILL CONTINUE, BUT IT WILL END IF WATER SHORTAGEBoth corn and wheat downtrend will continue. Since Dollar is very strong, agriculture is flourishing, oil is cheap, and is going to get cheaper, Corn and Wheat prices will go lower. There's no shortage of food, and it will continue to be like that in the next period. Unless something bad happens this summer, in terms of weather, Prices will go lower. The other possibility of this going higher is due to lack of water in some regions, like California: www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com Lack of water around the world could be possible due to more factors, but I will start with this: www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com Also, glaciers forming more in asia, it has to do with water retreating, possible global freezing, instead of global warming: www.livescience.com www.globalresearch.ca www.globalclimatescam.com www.thelongview.com.au dailycaller.com nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com iceagenow.info Also, there appears to be water barons buying all water: www.bibliotecapleyades.net www.blacklistednews.com www.zerohedge.com Also, why is global warming a pseudoscience: www.bibliotecapleyades.net So this means, short now commodities while you still can, and watch out for lower production in the coming years because of lack of water around the world that can trigger lack of food and so, rising prices in all commodities. If on 1 month chart, highest high for corn is near 850, it can go in the future to 1600, 2000 or more, but that likely in 2 years or more, and that if farmers won't get water. Short, short term, Long, long term. Breaking the wedge indicates potential short target of 340, and longer target to 320. Breaking above 50 day EMA at 370 indicates possible long, and getting out of the wedge and breaking 200 day EMA at 385 indicates longs to unknown potential. That is all.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by justaname
WHEAT MUST BREAK 535 FOR AN UPTRENDWheat is neither good, nor bad. Currently, it formed a bullish flag on daily, MACD/RSI convergent with price that is going up. First, breaking into a new 15 day high, above 530 would mean breaking the small wedge and going up. Breaking the 200 day EMA at 535$ would make wheat go into an uptrend, all the way to 600. News: economictimes.indiatimes.com Hedge funds are cutting wheat shorts: www.agrimoney.com Neutral-long for wheat. If 535 isn't broken in 2 weeks, price will likely go down.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by justaname
Buy Wheat!You can hardly get a simpler and less ambiguous recommendation than that. After a 7 year bear market I think the time may have come for wheat to rise again. You can see a small monthly RSI divergence which has formed over the past 6 months and a larger hidden divergence which has formed over the past 5 years. Commercial buying is at historic levels and the seasonals are favorable for the second part of the year. In the media there’s plenty of news about oil and energy markets but wheat and agriculture in general at the moment are all but completely neglected. By reading various blogs I find also that most of the traders are bearish on agricultural commodities. The confluence of all of these factors suggests a strong buy for wheat. Does that mean mortgage your house and put all of your money in wheat? No, never bet the farm on any investment or trade no matter how convinced you are. I recommend using the following strategy (which you may modify to reflect your own strategy, risk tolerance and account capitalization): I suggest dividing the money allocated to wheat in 3 parts: 1. Investment Allocate approx. 1.5% of your trading account to wheat. For example if you have a 100,000$ account you would allocate 1,500$ to this position. The stop is 0, essentially this is an investment and there is no stop. The target is all time highs. I don’t have a more precise target, you would just have to wait for the pattern to unfold and when the mass psychology is “right” sell. For example if you see in your local newspapers front page articles about how high the price of wheat is and how high it’s gonna go, you should sell, but that is years away, it may be even decades away. It took wheat more than 20 years to break the 1974 high. To not have to wait that long we have the other 2 types of trades. 2. Long term trade Place a trade and assign a stop below 400 on a monthly closing basis. For the long term rising trend in wheat started in the year 2000 to remain intact, wheat shouldn’t close below the ascending trend line or approx. below 400. I suggest risking about 0.5%-1.0% of your total trading capital on this stop. If wheat goes to around a 1000 sell 1/3 of your position. Sell the second 1/3 around the 1,100-1,300 level. The last 1/3 sell at your discretion if wheat breaks above all time highs. 3. Speculative position Place a trade and assign a stop below 460 on a daily closing basis. Sell 1/3 at the 640-680 level, 1/3 at the 800-850 level (retest of the upper trend line channel) and 1/3 at 1000-1100 level. Risk no more then 0.5% of your trading capital on this trade. Whoever chooses to go with the trade good luck. This is not investment advice and you are solely responsible for your actions. For a full disclaimer see here: www.highprotrading.com For a full list of instruments traded in the lifetime of the portfolio and for performance go to the Performance section: www.highprotrading.com
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by HighProTrading
5