Wheat Futures - ZW - Like Snakes in a CanSnakes in a can is not a great metaphor for food. Nonetheless, that's the pattern that seems to be developing on wheat futures.
All know that the world's food crops are not in good shape. Massive drought tends to kill plants, which ruins harvests, which causes some obvious downside effects in economies.
Each year in recent years, we're running out of supply until the next year's harvest arrives, which replenishes the silos, which means that you won't really feel the pain of a bad harvest until the following year.
Yay for 2022, not so yay for 2023. 2024 is a dark horizon.
On the monthly chart, Wheat ZW swept out the long-term 2008 high in March on the back of the Russian Federation invading Ukraine:
It only swept the high, however, and has since corrected, hard. It's specifically notable that despite the massive dump, wheat did not take out the January pivot in either July, or in August's very gentle stop raid.
In fact, wheat has spent the better part of two months ranging in this accumulation area, which is bad news for bears and good news for bulls.
It's also notable that corn has already had a significant breakout that took out a previous month's high:
Corn Futures ZC1 - Spooling Like a Turbo
(Too bad I had my compass on backwards for that one and picked that it would go down before it would go up, when it just went up in a straight line. But hey, at least I drew my box in the right place -_-)
Contracts of similar category tend to move in the same direction, but at different times, of each other.
To be frank, I believe that this means wheat is all but guaranteed to set all new highs. However, it's a question of when. In reality, price is the easy part and time is the hard part.
When it comes to "when," at least right now, you can tell from the pattern post-stop raid that we're ready to go somewhere, and that somewhere is probably up.
In terms of between now and the end of September, I think that the most realistic targets are July's equal highs at ~845 and July's monthly high at ~940.
I believe that a major commodities supercycle lies ahead. Something that will really be fun to trade but painful for reality. But I also believe that a big shakeout is imminent before we go there. For wheat, based on how its traded, this may mean it provides something of a shelter or a safe haven, running bull while many other things correct and dump.
As the world gets crazy, keep in mind that no matter how the media and the government howls its narrative, the human race is still ultimately on a planet that orbits a sun and is positioned inside of a very, very, very immense Universe.
The more immense the Universe, the less possible it is that we are either the only lives that exist or the highest lives that exist. That is how statistics and probabilities works.
And I am not talking about such and such idea of aliens. I am talking about the idea of "Gods," which I do not regard as limited to the Marxist-smeared religious dogma of a giant old white man wearing a robe in the sky judging you when you swear or drink.
Instead, to speak of Gods is to simply have a rational understanding about the structure of the Cosmos, its multitudinous dimensions, and those higher lives with power that occupy those dimensions and oversee this human stage during the end of a Cosmic Era.
What I am getting at with the above, is that no matter how "chaotic" things get, the chaos is actually a manifest form of order. Things are happening for a reason, are planned both above and below in advance, and no matter how the Earth capsizes and the Sky falls, the tribulation provides an opportunity.
The Divine is ultimately in control of where we are headed, and for good people, there is hope.
So make sure you maintain your kindness, your conscience, your sense of justice, and your rationality. Do your best, and don't lose heart.
In history, humanity's catastrophes, such as famines, have always had a target, and the target has almost never been people who are virtuous and are walking on the traditional path.
Wheat
Fall trading has begun - SPX 500 USOIL BONDS WHEAT BTC DXY GOLDALl in the video, still bullish on the stock market, but a small sell off first would be appropriate to trap shorts. OIl looks like 92 target should come sooner rather than later. Bonds still under the channel. Wheat still looks great. Gold looks promising and the US dollar likely pulls back to help it. BTC hard to tell but I would think higher after a small sell off.
Corn Futures ZC1 - Spooling Like a TurboBecause virtually the whole world is suffering from massive drought this summer, many crops are in bad shape. This is true with the U.S. cotton crop and it's also true with the U.S. corn crop, which according to USDA reports, barely half of is in good or excellent condition as of last week.
This is significant because the U.S. is the largest global producer of both, and by a huge margin.
This gives good cause to believe that a pump is on the horizon, but when, and how easily will it arrive?
The good news is for latecomers is that it seems as if the Ukraine panic pump and dump from April+ bottomed out in July, based on recent price action. "The second mouse gets the cheese."
There's a big gap on corn and wheat remaining from the June doom candle, which should transpire as a range that gets eaten into as we head into later September and October.
Winter may very well be new all time highs, because the world and humanity is in a lot of trouble. The environment is not in good shape, but to understand what this really means, you have to throw away the leftist-socialist-establishment "carbon" narratives, because those things are not only distractions, but they exist as a Communist Party pretext to take away your Freedom of Movement.
But just look at the lack of water and functioning ecosystem and ask yourself how long the happy is going to remain in North America.
The situation in Europe is already very dangerous.
Regardless, with the way price action has traded this month, it seems likely that corn futures has a good shot of breaking July's high before the end of the month. But it also looks like it may not run in a straight line up and take care of that business on Monday or Tuesday.
If you get a retrace into the 597 range, it seems there's a functional trade. However, it's entirely possible that August fails to break July's high. But if you can get out over 640 all the same before the month closes, you'll have done pretty well.
As for the rest of that gap above, I don't think we see that until the next commodities supercycle starts, likely beginning to ramp in late September-October.
Today is like a turbocharger. They all take a bit to spool. But once they do, it's really fun.
Unless you're the one standing in front of the Ferrari.
Commodity Wheat idea (06/09/2022)wheat
The completion of the (C) wave of the flat irregular wave, and we expect a drop in wheat in the coming period after ending the correction pattern as we explained, and we expect it to target 773 at 1.618%, or it may continue to 2.618% at 744 since trading is the lowest point of resistance 839.25
Why Rice Prices Determine the Direction of Interest Rates?Recently, I received questions asking my opinion on their borrowing cost, if they should go for fixed or float rates. We somehow know there is inflation, but not exactly sure how long it will last and how bad it will get. Because higher inflation leads to higher interest rates.
While I cannot advise them as I do not have a banking license to do so. However, I can point them to the commodity markets, I hope by doing so, it can help them to understand and read into the direction of interest rates with greater clarity.
Background on edible commodities:
Rice is a staple in the diets of more than half of the world’s population, especially in Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East. Annual production of milled rice tops 480 million metric tons, which makes it the third most-produced grain in the world after corn and wheat.
An increase in rice prices or edible commodities, it will really add pressure to the existing global inflationary pressure. Hardship will be more intense especially compare to other commodities like crude oil.
In short, people can still live with some inconvenience without cars, but not without food.
Therefore, when food prices become much more expensive, the central banks immediate and urgent measures is to counter it by rising interest rates.
Content:
. Why edible commodities determine the direction of interest rates?
. Technical studies
. How to hedge or buy them?
Rice Market:
91 Metric Tons
$0.005 = US$10
Example -
$0.01 = US$20
$18.00 = 1800 x US$20 = US$18,000
From $18 to $19 = US$10,000
If you are trading this market for the short-term, do remember to use live data than delay ones.
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
That Friday Bounce - SPY, OIL, BONDS, Wheat, SILVER, USD, BTC OK a nice bounce into the daily MA cluster. I do think we get choppy over the next few weeks, so expect a lot of up and down and take profits when you get them. SPX may pullback early next week only to rally into the end of the week. Oil similar choppy movies to 92 and maybe 95 later in September. Wheat tested it's channel and so far has pulled away nicely. Gold and SIlver look promising and the US Dollar may pullback hard helping the metals in general. BTC looks choppy and probably makes one more leg down into Labor day. Good luck and enjoy some time off.
WHEAT AnalysisSee Chart For Top-Down Analysis Ideas.
-Price inside motnhly area of demand
-Daily downtrend trend lines broken
-4hr downward channel broken
-Price above 4hr 200ma
-Opposing pivot point area of supply removed
-Some traders will look to take the first demand area as a continuation of trading with the trend while others will wait for new lower timeframe 5min buy setups.
--A
Commodity Wheat idea (30/08/2022)wheat
And we expect the end of the wave ((C)) at prices of 849.00 expect the decline from the current prices, but there may be an extension in the rise to price of 872, so we should be careful in the coming period, but for the time being, the decline is in place since trading is below the 849 resistance point
Wheat up four days consecutively & approaching local resistanceTechnically, wheat has seen 4 consecutive sessions of strength. This is in the face of a stronger dollar and recessionary fears, which in theory should sap sentiment and forward demand dynamics. Wheat is approaching key level of resistance at 810. This is a previous POC, that has proved difficult to breach. Though fundamentally wheat should stay bid, considering macro outlook and supply issues, MACD, vwap and RSI all point down to further pressure should this fib retrace become invalidated
Wheat Watching I've been watching Wheat and Soy for a couple of weeks here as I've never traded them. I feel like I have a decent enough understanding of how they move to attempt and entry today.
Got a bullish signal with price action context for a potential long trade, looking for retracement entry.
✅WHEAT NEXT MOVE|LONG🚀
✅WHEAT went down to retest a horizontal support
Which makes me locally bullish biased
And I think that a move up
From the level is to be expected
Towards the target above
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Wheat is falling as Ukraine starts exporting itNice short can be seen on Wheat.
If you look at the daily timeframe we are in strong downtrend and keep squeezing to the level.
Ukraine started exporting its grain again and first ship already sailed out of the port. One ship won't change much for the world, but fundamentally it's very important news for the market.
That's why we can expect more fall in the future.
Locally we are nicely squeezing to the daily lows, and after squeezing on 5m timeframe it would be nice to open short
What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌
If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
MOS Weekly TA Neutral BullishMOSUSD Weekly neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% MOS, 45% Cash . *Fertilizer and grain prices are going down as supply chains ease due to a deal between Russia, Belarus and Ukraine that allows sanctions on fertilizer exports from Belarus and Russia to be lifted in exchange for Russia allowing Ukraine to resume grain exports from the Black Sea through Turkey. However, this could be short-lived considering: a) it's a deal with Russia who literally bombed a port in Odessa the day after signing the deal and b) that the world's second largest producer of fertilizer behind Russia (China) is likely to continue suspending exports of phosphates for the rest of 2022 . Although Mosaic's earnings and revenue were both up on the quarter they missed consensus estimates, while competitor Nutrien beat both estimates and had record earnings in the previous quarter; however, Mosaic expects revenue to continue to be strong for the remainder of 2022.* Price is currently trending up at $52.50 after breaking above the descending trendline from 04/18/22, it also broke above the 50 MA and $49 resistance and will need to close above it this week in order to reestablish support. Volume has been shrinking for the previous seven sessions (indicative of a potential pending breakout/breakdown) and is currently on track to favor buyers for five consecutive sessions if it can close this week in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $74.55, this margin is bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending sideways at 50 after bouncing off the uptrend line from September 2015 at 40 support; the next resistance is at 53. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 39 as it is still technically testing 29 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending sideways at -0.50 as it continues to form a trough, in order for a bullish crossover it would have to break above 1.10; the next resistance is 1.75. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 23 as Price is attempting to reverse the downtrend, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to establish support at $50 then the next likely target is a test of $56 resistance . However, if Price breaks down back below $50 support , it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~$45 . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $50 .
WHEAT BUY 1HWheat is trading above 200EMA on both Price and Volume. We could see a rise in price to 896.
There is also a bullish divergence on 1 hour RSI.
War is not over...
ZW / WHEAT FUTURESAbout FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS .
---We are now in the corn-demand zone and there are many factors supporting the buying.
1-The Ukrainian war.
2- - dehydration.
3-The rise in the price of oil will lead to a rise in the price of transportation.
About TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
--- we look at (" Sell VOLUME ") and ("Sell pressure") is in decreasing , Volume drives all markets.
About Psycho-
--- The short sellers start to take their money from wheat market because of a psycho- demand zone.