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Wheat

Wheat up four days consecutively & approaching local resistanceTechnically, wheat has seen 4 consecutive sessions of strength. This is in the face of a stronger dollar and recessionary fears, which in theory should sap sentiment and forward demand dynamics. Wheat is approaching key level of resistance at 810. This is a previous POC, that has proved difficult to breach. Though fundamentally wheat should stay bid, considering macro outlook and supply issues, MACD, vwap and RSI all point down to further pressure should this fib retrace become invalidated
WShort
by jbanton86829
Wheat is falling as Ukraine starts exporting itNice short can be seen on Wheat. If you look at the daily timeframe we are in strong downtrend and keep squeezing to the level. Ukraine started exporting its grain again and first ship already sailed out of the port. One ship won't change much for the world, but fundamentally it's very important news for the market. That's why we can expect more fall in the future. Locally we are nicely squeezing to the daily lows, and after squeezing on 5m timeframe it would be nice to open short What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌 If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
WShort
by Artem_Dishel
9
MOS Weekly TA Neutral BullishMOSUSD Weekly neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% MOS, 45% Cash . *Fertilizer and grain prices are going down as supply chains ease due to a deal between Russia, Belarus and Ukraine that allows sanctions on fertilizer exports from Belarus and Russia to be lifted in exchange for Russia allowing Ukraine to resume grain exports from the Black Sea through Turkey. However, this could be short-lived considering: a) it's a deal with Russia who literally bombed a port in Odessa the day after signing the deal and b) that the world's second largest producer of fertilizer behind Russia (China) is likely to continue suspending exports of phosphates for the rest of 2022 . Although Mosaic's earnings and revenue were both up on the quarter they missed consensus estimates, while competitor Nutrien beat both estimates and had record earnings in the previous quarter; however, Mosaic expects revenue to continue to be strong for the remainder of 2022.* Price is currently trending up at $52.50 after breaking above the descending trendline from 04/18/22, it also broke above the 50 MA and $49 resistance and will need to close above it this week in order to reestablish support. Volume has been shrinking for the previous seven sessions (indicative of a potential pending breakout/breakdown) and is currently on track to favor buyers for five consecutive sessions if it can close this week in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $74.55, this margin is bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending sideways at 50 after bouncing off the uptrend line from September 2015 at 40 support; the next resistance is at 53. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 39 as it is still technically testing 29 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending sideways at -0.50 as it continues to form a trough, in order for a bullish crossover it would have to break above 1.10; the next resistance is 1.75. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 23 as Price is attempting to reverse the downtrend, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to establish support at $50 then the next likely target is a test of $56 resistance . However, if Price breaks down back below $50 support , it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~$45 . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $50 .
NYSE:MOS
by dailytaguy
1
ZW / WHEAT FUTURESAbout FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS . ---We are now in the corn-demand zone and there are many factors supporting the buying. 1-The Ukrainian war. 2- - dehydration. 3-The rise in the price of oil will lead to a rise in the price of transportation. About TECHNICAL ANALYSIS --- we look at (" Sell VOLUME ") and ("Sell pressure") is in decreasing , Volume drives all markets. About Psycho- --- The short sellers start to take their money from wheat market because of a psycho- demand zone.
CBOT:ZW1!
by Gassem_futures
Lest we forgetHas the wheat market been forgotten? With wheat prices almost back to early February levels, right before the start of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, markets seemed to have erased all fears of a tightening wheat supply due to the conflict. The recent selloff in wheat partially stemmed from the market belief that the situation in Ukraine is improving and that exports will be resuming. But with today’s news of missile strikes at Ukraine’s Odesa port, which serves as one of the main port for grains export, we think that the narrative for wheat is about to turn around with further fear and supply tightening on the horizon. Looking at the chart, wheat is now sitting on a long-term resistance-turn-support level around the 850 mark. RSI recovered from deep oversold territory and is now grinding back upwards. On a shorter timeframe, we also see a falling wedge, which is seen as a bullish signal. The combination of markets over-correcting to pre-conflict levels and bullish signals from current technical indicators provides a buying opportunity as we head into another period of uncertainty for wheat. Entry at 842, stops at 752. Target at 1000. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CBOT:KEZ2022Long
by inspirante
11
Long Wheat (ZW) - COT Thrust Signal (Read for Explanation)CBOT:ZW1! A bit of a unique chart setup here - typically I trade based solely on the max positioning of the commercials (See below for an explanation of what that means). However, I will occasionally look for a buy when the Net positioning of commercials has accelerated recently (Indicated by black bars in the COT indicator at bottom of the chart). For this trade, use the daily chart for an entry using your favorite technical indicator (if it triggers!). Note: Crop Progress report on Monday Risk: There has been some recent heavy selling making this slightly counter trend Additional Note: Look how accurate the COT Index has been on calling highs and lows for Wheat (Green and Red highlighting on the bottom indicator). And no, I did not optimize the settings to get this to occur. Helping Materials to Understand What I'm Talking About (I have this on all my ideas now) COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0. The black bars show when the index is moving rapidly and can also trigger a trade) - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here)
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Rudeadam18