WEAT UpdateSlowly crushing all levels put out previously
There is absolutely nothing going against this trade:
1. Inflation is positive for the price
2. Logistics and all of the shipping BS is positive
3. Winter is coming...can harvest more supply until next year
4. What am I missing?
5. You know what happens after you put a claw like looking rounding bottom like this?
It is just getting started. Plenty of notice given.
Wheatanalysis
Wheat Futures September 2021 ContractThe pattern is currently doing a sideways or consolidation in 1 HR and below. It looks like the selling pressure is present unless if its breaks the red line resistance with a strong buying force. Other confluence for shorts are:
1) Pattern making a reversal at a 61.8 Fibo level
2) Seller coming in, can be seen in Volume
3) Bullish momentum getting less and less
4) Price break 100MA, but yet to respect it.
Entry guidelines:
- I will wait for the price to break the trendline and the support area before going into a position targetting 160-170 ticks below.
Good luck!
WHEAT - SHORT; Continued SELLing for the foreseeable future"Margin pressures; How to survive in an over-provisioned environment." - Was the topic/title of a recent grain cash traders' conference. What does that tell you?...
In short, industry insiders do not expect to see daylight (i.e. profits) as far out as 2025! - And that concludes the essence of all that was said during that get-together.
(Try that on for "inflationary pressures" .)
Wheat - S(h)ort the wheat from chaffWheat today broke the support level mentioned as DECISION LEVEL on previous published idea (pls see below for link).
As seen on the 4h time frame above, it also just broke the 38.2% Fib level from the weekly time frame of the last impulse.
The trend remains bearhish (MACD confirms the shift) and the weekly resistance now shifted around the $5.34-5.35 level.
I'm monitoring price to see if it makes the pullback (expected, the light blue arrows) and then depending on how and if it does the pullback, I consider taking a nice short position.
The position I look for should give 140+ pip profit to the next support level of ~$5.16.
Note: I'm no trading expert nor have the ambition to become one! The above is just an idea that I share with the intention of attracting comments and perhaps become better at trading commodities.
Rally in Wheat will continue. Possible entriesYou know I am a big fan of commodities and especially tight markets like wheat, live cattle, etc. These instruments are less manipulated and less speculative. Usually, they follow their setups very well. Getting above Friday’s high is potential swing entry. We have a triangular formation on the daily chart. Sometimes price makes false breakdown before the rally. So, it is another potential entry, if that happens. Wheat has a strong seasonal tendency to rally till September.
WHEAT FUTURES (KE1!) MonthlyThe Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick .
Dates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low.
Wheat analysisWheat prices remain high, despite the supply of relatively good data on the market
High quality spring wheat - higher than winter crop
The quality of spring wheat has been the highest in the United States since 2010, and it may still grow
In some EU countries, rainfall increases the quality of European wheat
Despite the relatively dry weather, the quality of wheat in France is 79%.
In the United States, spring wheat quality has been rated at 83% - the highest level after many years - (Bloomberg)
The price of wheat after the publication of the above mentioned quality data tends to decrease. The next WASDE report is expected next week.