Wheat / Trendline RetestIt"s not just grocery shoppers who are hoarding pantry staples.
Some governments are moving to secure domestic food supplies during the
corona virus pandemic . (Bloomberg)
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Wheatfutures
Kansas Cory Wheat Short Opportunity Off Of HighsLooking at a short opportunity with KC Wheat being at highs of 500’s I also look for other conditions.
1- divergence on almost all Macro time frames including the daily , and indecision here on monthly and weekly timeframes.
2-seasonal historic patterns showing a time where commercials can flip position to net buyers meaning they are hedging against the speculators that can drive prices back down
3-momentum looks weak up there
Let’s see what happens all I am short one calendar spread from here. Good luck !
KEN2020-KEK2020 - Commodity Spread on Coffee FuturesKEN2020-KEK2020
Rising triangle in formation on this spread between two wheat futures contracts.
Statistically, in the previous 15 years of our seasonal window we have come to profit in 100% of cases with an average risk reward of 3:1.
With this strategy we started trading years ago, bringing us considerable profits that made us understand that operating in the financial markets was an incredible potential source of income if done with professionalism and discipline.
ZW1! - What to expect on 4HR - WHEAT FUTURESPossible trend reversal coming up, needs a few closes below the line marked w/ text. Simple trade guys. If it closes below let it fall, get short on the pull back OR vice versa. No trade yet, just waiting for a directional signal. Gut says short it though. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, TRADE SAFE!
Wheat is contracting for a breakout
Wheat is contracting into a symmetrical triangle and is poised for a breakout. Volatility as measured by a 14 day ATR is the lowest it has been since last year February, this is generally a good sign of a market poised for a large move especially when combined with a definitive consolidation pattern like a symmetrical triangle. Which way the break will occur is another matter entirely, wheat prices have generally been trending downwards over the last 7 years and therefore the recent rally in prices could be seen as simply a correction in the overall larger downtrend. However wheat recently put in a higher lower and higher high and formed what could be interpreted as a very ugly inverse head and shoulders pattern. Based on this observation I am leaning towards the conclusions that a base has been formed in price and a longer term uptrend is beginning to establish itself. Despite this a break in either direction of the triangle will be acted upon. Top side breaks should target 561 while downside breaks should target 478. Stops can be placed at 518 and make sure to seek entries with positive risk reward ratios, ideally 2 to 1 or more.
*This is not a recommendation to buy or sell it is for educational purposes only*
Wheat Short Position on H1 ChartsI am entering into short positon on H1 chart in wheat once again. The market seems saturated at this time with lots of supply from the producers as the autumn season is at its best. Risk/Reward at 1. This is a shorter time frame trade. Expecting to be closed in few days.
WHEAT - New kid on the blockI've been watching wheat since its big pop in June. I will release a detailed report on the weekend. It seems to me the multi year bear market in wheat is over.
The last 2 months' decline after the big June bounce is not abnormal. We have seen similar things in other vehicles.
The reason I enter today is the Bollinger Band crash signal. I highlighted by green the previous BB crashes : they always ended up in bounces.
Yesterday we had a BB crash and today we started the bounce. As we are bouncing from a multi- month support zone this can turn out to be a bottom...
There is still a possibility we tag the 3.9$ zone ( previous DCL) so I'm not going into full position.
Have some dry powder if it continues to fall a bit more.
Wheat Approaching KEY ResistanceWheat is rallying up to a key quarterly/yearly trendline projected from the major 2008 and 2012 highs which is also the upper boundary of an enormous decending wedge.
I'm watching for a high at this area over the next few months to short into a final low (ideally 2019) before breaking out of this wedge to the upside.
Bull cycle counts point towards July and October as the ideal months for the high.
I'll post more analysis and go over the opportunities once things become clearer.
Checkout my website @ PatsTrades (link is on my profile page below my picture) for my analysis on other trades like this and subscribe to avoid missing out on ideas and entries.
Thanks!!
Wheat monthly potential bottom setting upThe monthly wheatusd chart looks like it may be setting up a potential long term bottom.
+DI has crossed above -DI and has put in a solid support line at 4.090 holding for past 4 months
ADX has continued to trend up signaling a strengthening of dominant trend (+DI)
TRIX has been moving toward 0 from negative
Stoch, after being oversold for past year, has moved above 25 and continues to climb
Continue to watch 4.090 to hold. if price closes the month above this line, momentum should continue to build for up trend
Look at Weekly and Daily charts for signals to enter long position.
Weekly
4.214 is an important resistance line on weekly. A close and hold above this line weekly would signal building strength in up trend
Daily
Neither weekly or daily have clear buy signals but rather both have their ADX below 20 indicating price consolidation in all 3 time frames.
Cup and Handle Formation on Wheat FuturesIn my continuing quest of using price action and TA to find opportunities in the futures markets, I search through each futures product each day to see what the weekly charts look like. When I stumbled upon Wheat Futures, I realized that Wheat was forming a perfect cup and handle pattern on the chart. This was honestly pretty sweet because it was the first time I've found such a pattern on the chart. This is usually a very bullish signal. Although I cannot trade the futures directly on my paper trading account here, I am looking at the ETF equivalent, but haven't found that one yet.
Regardless of what the move does after this, it will provide a great data point when it comes to analyzing different chart patterns, such as the cup and handle.
As always, when entering a trade I'll look to risk no more than 1% of my capital, and look to take profits right around the 3:1 or 4:1 risk reward ratio.
All the best,
RC
Wheat Wait to break the resistanceLonged last Friday as a very long down shadow line on the weekly candle.
Gap up today, let's wait it to break the trendline on daily chart first.
Likely to finish the "CUP and Handle" shape
MW1! @ daily @ closed last 8 days higher, while every day
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
Closings Bullish (32 Commodities)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
Wheat -- near long opportunityProbably soon there will be nice long opportunity, at least for correction. Closely watching & bought small part for medium term.