When bottoming or not yet?Wheat in a downtrend since 2012 and I think this is not the end, but, can be a turning point for a while...
Second target would a dream to hold Wheat long ETF for years :)
Wheatfutures
C wave as an ending diagonalThe C wave correction ended at 0.382 fib (yellow) of the previous impulse down. Looking for continuation of down move to 1.272 fib (yellow). Wheat doesn't give much chance to enter, once it drops, it drops quick. So don't miss it.
Wheat may have hit its pullbackLooking at 30M chart, it's possible that wheat has made its pullback. The TSI could be finding support at 0 and RSI on 40. Based on next open and if these indicators move up off this support may try a dec wheat call.
Looking at the daily chart, the RSI and TSI look bullish and the ADX with +DMI looks like it could be setting up a change in dominance from down trend.
Daily looks like it hit some resistance at the 23.6% retrace area between the 6/8 high and 8/31 low. I think that price will move up to challenge other areas of retrace as noted on daily chart.
Wheat may be ready to begin a new trend upWheat, on an 8H chart, has broken through key short term resistance last week. Beginning 9/12, ADX had signaled a period of price consolidation which has lasted until 10/13 when price broke through resistance.
This price action and ADX consolidation is reflected on the daily chart too. It is possible that price may have more upside potential before a pullback happens and an entry long could be attempted
The weekly chart, though it has not broken out of resistance or have had it's TSI and RSI turn positive, these two indicators may be showing some key divergences looking at the 2014/09/22 low and recent 2016/08/29 low. Should these areas of divergence hold, i'm looking for the upper line of resistance to be challenged. A key thing to watch on the weekly ADX is if price does move up does the +DMI cross up over the -DMI and the ADX move up above 20. There are a couple of scenarios that can play out should this happen which include either 1) a new bull trend as upper resistance breaks or 2) a drop off of the upper resistance with the ADX above 20 and the -DMI/+DMI swap signaling a change in dominance.
Q: Is this the beginning of an up trend or just another spike on weekly to touch upper resistance? Hard to tell for now and weekly will hold answer over next couple of months.
For now , I'm looking to enter long with dec wheat call but waiting to see if price pulls back first. Ideally, on the 8H chart, the +DMI and -DMI converge toward each other briefly with price pulling back to moving averages.
Wheat Futures 240 CBOT Updated 8/30/16Price hit resistance near 450 and also retested blue median line resistance near 430, and has cascaded lower. Look for possible continuation lower to 375-350.
Wheat descending wedge!Wheat appears to be nearing the completion of a major ascending wedge that spans 4-5 years. Best way to take advantage of this would be a wide entry with a safe stop once a bottoming pattern appears on the daily/weekly. My guess is we won't see a bottom until late 2016 or maybe early 2017.
Martin Armstrong has posted about the global *cooling* (not warming) that should begin to impact crop production sending prices sky high. This data adds quite a bit of fundamental confluence on top of the beautiful techs, making the trade even more enticing.
Jim Rogers also sees agriculture *prices* improving in the future in his recent interview with Real Vision TV. He has been saying this for a few years now but also admits he's often VERY early to a trade.
I'll be watching this trade closely for a bottom, going to be a good one!
