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WHEATUSD

Wheat, Soybeans, and CornWhy Wheat and why now. What about Soybeans and Corn. Looking across the Ags, it seems that Wheat is enjoying the most upside. Why is this. In keeping with my focus on the DMI and ADX, I think you’d have start by looking at the monthly chart of the 3. One of the key tenants of DMI/ADX is that best trades seem to originate when the ADX is below 20 for an extended period of time. And, for Wheat, that has been since June of 2013. Since then, it has moved between a couple of lines and for the most part, remaining below the 13 period EMA of the high. As an aside, in my previous articles, I used EMA’s on the close of price but have moved to a 13EMA on high, 26EMA on low and 20EMA on close with the intent to use them as a channel for pullbacks based of ADX action. June of last year, the downtrend line was sharply broken but before that, the DMI made a significant move when the +/-DI swapped. Although this had happened several time during the past 4 years, what eventually became important is that the low of this candle was never broken while the high was continually tested and broken with the last time starting the recent uptrend. Also, note that during this time that the +DMI continued to make higher highs will not making lower lows. With the ADX moving above 20 in May of this year, a strong signal was given that the market was ready to move up. Now, consider the same discussion for ]Soybeans : Notice the size of the candle that caused the last swap. I’ve included a possible consolidation pattern. And for Corn : With Corn the interesting thing on recent action is that the DI’s changed dominance but did so where the swap was to -DI but with a green candle. I don’t see this too often but seems to give mixed signals.
OANDA:WHEATUSD
by mxb1961
Trading the DMI with ADX, TSI and EMA (WHEATUSD) PullbacksSo far, I’ve focused on how to get into the market based on the DMI swap in dominance between the +DI and -DI. Once you’re in or if you missed the original entry, how can you get into a trend while minimizing your risk. As I’ve noted before, I’ve not been able to successfully trade on a regular basis but my hope is to use everything I’m documenting here to change that. In one of the links that I shared in my first article is a PDF that has some really good stuff on using the PDF to trade breakouts. In it, there is a section on how to trade pullbacks within a trend using a 20 period EMA. In my charts, I use a combination of the 13 and 26 period EMA to sort of do the same thing (I use a range between the two vs. just one EMA). Full credit for the strategy is given in the PDF and the basics of it are outlined as follows: 1. The ADX must me moving up and above 20 2. Look for a price retracement to the 20 period EMA. It goes on to note that “usually the price retracement will be accompanied by a turndown in the ADX” 3. When price touches the 20 period EMA (in my case, when it enters the range or touches the 26 period EMA), “put a BUY STOP above the high of the previous bar” 4. Once filled, enter a protective stop at the newly formed swing low 5. If stopped out, re-enter the trade by placing a new BUY STOP at the original entry price 6. After a successful trade, the ADX must once again turn up above 20 before another retrace The PDF walks through this strategy as outlined above along with providing some examples. However, the examples are based on the same time frame as the original entry. I’d like to explore and propose that in a strong trend at the daily level, the 4 hour chart will provide a short term strategy. By applying the same concept to the 4 hour chart as outlined above then you may be able to find points that either provide opportunities to enter into an existing trend, or add to positions you may already have within the trend. As the 4 hour chart begins to show weakness and a breakdown below the 26 EMA, it’s possible this is an indication that the daily chart will now cycle through the same steps as noted above which would provide an opportunity take profit on existing positions while waiting for the next setup to enter with the trend on the daily chart. I’ve hi-lited areas on the 4 hour chart for WHEATUSD that fit into this strategy with the current up trend on the daily chart that started recently. Note, that the last area in yellow appears to be breaking down below the 26 EMA signaling that the daily chart may begin to cycle through it's own pullback.
OANDA:WHEATUSD
by mxb1961
5
Trading the DMI with ADX, TSI and EMA (WHEATUSD) cont.Setting up a trade based on daily signal using 4 hour chart for timing. In this scenario, the daily chart had its ADX below 20 since July 3rd. When trading with DMI/ADX, periods of breakout after the ADX has been below 20 for at least 7-10 periods can provide good results. In this case, the 4 hour chart had dropped below 20 for an extended period too. On July 17th , price moved up which caused the +DI to cross up over the -DI. Based on Wilder's strategy, you would place a buy stop above the high of the day (either the high or a number greater than it). With this strategy, you may consider the stop at a point below the low for the same day. In cases where the daily range is small, then placing orders in this way may not cause too much of a draw down. However, in case where the daily range is large, the risk is much higher though there are cases where it's just the way it works out (recent ngas activity that I'll use in an example in a future article). Alternatively, you could choose to place the stop at something like a 75% retrace of the daily candle when placing the buy stop at the high of the day. Another option is to place your buy order as a limit order somewhere in the 25-75% pullback of the daily range that caused the DMI to swap . On the 4hr chart, marks the day that daily DMI swapped dominance while shows the 25/50/75% breakdown of this price range. While this strategy can reduce the risk of having a larger draw down, it also introduces the risk of missing a trade. I'll review more examples of both of these scenarios in next article.
OANDA:WHEATUSD
by mxb1961
Wheat looks set to break higherLooking at wheat zw1! across three charts (renko 10pt, 5pt, and 1pt), it looks like they have achieved some type of confluence and are staged to break higher. Entry setup would have been on the 1pt chart on the 27th with the second test of the 100EMA. However, I'm looking to enter long based on how market opens this coming week. Targets are 510 and 550 on the zw1! chart. Actual entry will be with the e-mini July Wheat. On TV, I track WHEATUSD for the real-time data feed.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by mxb1961
Wheat Short Position Initiated on Daily ChartWe initiated a short position on wheat futures through OANDA platform on daily chart, based on constructive price action pattern and some fundamental indications that the extreme cautions about the 2017 wheat production are way too exaggerated. As the summer progress we see increasing downside pressure and possible good profit opportunity. Our Reward/Risk is 1, although we expect further downside potential and may join the trend in a later point again. A contango situation when the short position pay off just for holding it is also present that additionally favor keeping this position for longer.
OANDA:WHEATUSDShort
by auroraspot
WHEAT - The start of a new bull marketI would like to show a longer term view in wheat on the weekly chart. These kind of setups are rare opportunities. I think in 2016 November we printed the bottom of the multi year bear market. The previous bull market peaked in 2012 summer. After that date wheat started a multi year decline. I highlighted by red boxes the yearly cycles. In wheat the yearly cycles are 49-66 weeks long. In a bear market we are printing lower yearly cycle lows and lower yearly cycles highs. If you check this weekly chart it's obvious we had a clear bear market in the last 5 years. But... There was a change a few weeks ago. The actual yearly cycle peaked higher (5.55) at the beginning of July than the previous yearly cycle high in 2016 June (5.22)... That's a very important character change. This is how the bear market ends and the bull market starts... Based on this my previous call is possible a bit early... The perfect entry will be most probably next week. The weekly RSI should get more oversold . If I'm right price will not get below 3.67$ in the following few years... I still see there is a possibility price is breaking below marginally 3,9$. But as we are printing a yearly cycle low in the following weeks I want to be in a starting position as a rally out of this low will be V-shaped .
OANDA:WHEATUSD
by chartwatchers
27
WHEAT - New kid on the blockI've been watching wheat since its big pop in June. I will release a detailed report on the weekend. It seems to me the multi year bear market in wheat is over. The last 2 months' decline after the big June bounce is not abnormal. We have seen similar things in other vehicles. The reason I enter today is the Bollinger Band crash signal. I highlighted by green the previous BB crashes : they always ended up in bounces. Yesterday we had a BB crash and today we started the bounce. As we are bouncing from a multi- month support zone this can turn out to be a bottom... There is still a possibility we tag the 3.9$ zone ( previous DCL) so I'm not going into full position. Have some dry powder if it continues to fall a bit more.
OANDA:WHEATUSDLong
by chartwatchers
9
WHEAT, weakness comingWHEAT, weakness coming The Laguerre indicator is ready to discharge, this could start a short entry in the evening with the target in area 449 WHEAT - ADX / ADM - TS V 2.8.4 - Intraday Levels for 10/08/2017      ADM - Average Daily Movement - Intraday Levels Entry on close 1H (hourly candle) ... if exceeded the indicated level ON the ZWU17 Contract - Sep '17 LONG if> 464.73 TP1 = 470.28 TP2 = 476.44 TP3 = 488.77 Stop Loss = 454.07           SHORT if <454,07 TP1 = 448.52 TP2 = 442.36 TP3 = 430.03 Stop Loss = 464.73
CBOT:ZWU2017
by XiNiaN
Wheat: Bottom of the pullback spottedI think there's a significant probability that the bottom of the recent correction in Wheat is in. I'm holding longs and now added my final entry a tad lower than this. I expect a rally back over the recent highs very soon. The crops this year suffered due to a significant drought in the regions where wheat is produced in the US. I think it is likely that this situation continues, and we get a strong rally from here onwards. Shout out to Tim West, who correctly diagnosed this situation with prescience in the KHL chatroom. Promising trade here, potentially similar in scale to the rally that took place in 1988. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:WEATLong
by IvanLabrie
5
Wheat Approaching KEY ResistanceWheat is rallying up to a key quarterly/yearly trendline projected from the major 2008 and 2012 highs which is also the upper boundary of an enormous decending wedge. I'm watching for a high at this area over the next few months to short into a final low (ideally 2019) before breaking out of this wedge to the upside. Bull cycle counts point towards July and October as the ideal months for the high. I'll post more analysis and go over the opportunities once things become clearer. Checkout my website @ PatsTrades (link is on my profile page below my picture) for my analysis on other trades like this and subscribe to avoid missing out on ideas and entries. Thanks!!
WShort
by patrick186
1
Wheat monthly potential bottom setting upThe monthly wheatusd chart looks like it may be setting up a potential long term bottom. +DI has crossed above -DI and has put in a solid support line at 4.090 holding for past 4 months ADX has continued to trend up signaling a strengthening of dominant trend (+DI) TRIX has been moving toward 0 from negative Stoch, after being oversold for past year, has moved above 25 and continues to climb Continue to watch 4.090 to hold. if price closes the month above this line, momentum should continue to build for up trend Look at Weekly and Daily charts for signals to enter long position. Weekly 4.214 is an important resistance line on weekly. A close and hold above this line weekly would signal building strength in up trend Daily Neither weekly or daily have clear buy signals but rather both have their ADX below 20 indicating price consolidation in all 3 time frames.
OANDA:WHEATUSD
by mxb1961