WIG - Resistance becomes supportGreetings to you all! I decided to mix journalism and technical analysis in this post. I will describe the last 20 years of price action in Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG), laying out the market structure and how it was shaped by key geopolitical events. Keep reading till the end, because the key message is that decade-long resistance level might have become a support zone, and Polish stock prices could be well-positioned for future growth.
Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG) has declined during 2008 financial crisis, after reaching all time high of 67,772 PLN. This price level created a resistance that scared off any early advances and pushed away subsequent rallies. 2017 and 2021 brought 2 attempts that failed to break above the resistance. The first rally did not quite have the momentum required to push the price higher, and the buying power vanished over the next 2 years. 2020 brought crisis and a steep decline in price, which was followed by a quick recovery through 2021. Price managed to close above ATH during July - December period of 2021, but it was short lived. Rising interest rates in 2022 and high inflation growth over the last 12 months resumed the pessimistic tone markets have followed in the aftermath of the covid pandemic, resulting in price falling back below the resistance, which remained intact at 65K - 75K PLN level.
It is important to mention that 2021 rally changed the character (CoC) of the established market structure post 2008 crisis, because price closed above ATH and set a higher high. Now, if I consider a local market structure of 2020 - 2024, I can clearly see a basic uptrend pattern of Higher High > Higher Low > Higher High, which is confirmed by both MACD and RSI indicators on monthly chart. Collectively, the 2020-2024 price impulse broke above the decade long resistance, which may now act as support, but, if you're a careful observer, you would notice that this happened as well in 2021. Why this time is different? Because consider the broader economic context, and you'll also notice that in 2024 inflation is seemingly under control (though above the target rates). Moreover, central banks kept the interest rates pretty much flat in 2022, and some even proceeded to cut them, lifting capital restraints affecting companies.
Hence, overall picture for WIG looks quite optimistic. It gained 27% in the last 12 months, broke above strong resistance, and it did so by establishing an uptrend price impulse. Meanwhile, Polish currency appreciated by ~5% against dollar and rose to #6 economy in Europe as of 2023. It grew twice as fast as top 5 economies both in 2023 YoY and during 2020 - 2023 period. I guess I will add some WIG to my portfolio, it looks good to me. But you decide for yourself, I'm not a financial advisor and this is not a financial advice. Thanks for reading this post.
WIG 20
WIG20, Daily, 1-Hour H&S and Weekly Bearish CandleThere was a big rally on the WSE recently - 16 green Heikin Ashi candles in a row. Now it's time for a continuation of the downtrend or, less likely, a correction in the new bullish trend.
Why? There is:
- an important supply-resistance level
- a supply zone
- 1-hour confirmation - Head and Shoulders formation
- weekly confirmation - an ending bearish candle
and USDPLN entered the weekly support zone.
Rather, the price will fall from these price levels otherwise, there is a chance that the upper zone will be tested.
The first target: the lower zone.
The second target: 2020 low.
See also related ideas.
WIG20The reading, preliminary, of CPI inflation for July did not bring much surprise. The dynamics amounted to 15.5% y/y equaling the June reading. A large part of the market assumed that a month ago we observed a peak in dynamics, meanwhile we received a flattening. From the MPC's perspective, this doesn't change much (sub-1x25b expected). Interestingly, we received a comment from the PFR today suggesting still a space of 50-75bp.
Three times the charm for shorts on OPL?Telecom sector in Poland is not really popular lately. As I recall the aggregating index WIG_TELE got removed due to not interesting, following modern trends or something.
While looking at this from monthly perspective it has to be stated that it got really cheap lately although it is honest and can be easily spotted by anyone in Poland that monopolist had to share the local market so that story said by monthly chart adds up.
On the weekly chart we clearly can see RSI divergence trying to say to us that we might have a shot at short. Next two weeks and monthly candle will quickly really verify is that true. A lot of polish indexes, stocks are at vital levels right after significant rally. If things cool down globally OPL can see a significant downward move. Great risk to reward ratio with obvious stop if the story does not confirm itself over the course of incoming new week and the next one.
Oh and don't mind the previous drawings. Time verified them to some degree.
Korekta na wig20EN: It seems to me that after a few days of gains it is time for WIG20 to fall. It doesn't have some big confirmation, that's a gap and a pinbar. How do you think?
PL: Wydaje mi sie, ze po kilku dniach wzrostów nadszedł czas na spadki na WIG20. Nie ma to jakiegoś dużego potwierdzenia, ot luka i pinbar. Jak uważacie ?
Mercator - MFI bullish divergenceLet's move on to analyzing what is happening in our Krakow company.
In the beginning, technical analysis - treat with distance :) You don't have to believe in TA, but you have to bear in mind that others do.
The price stopped at 0.786 fib. There is nothing under this support for a long, long time. So a fall in price below this level will most likely round the trend - bearish.
The RSI shows the oversold level - a buy signal.
Additionally, VWMACD is clearly approaching positive values, which indicates a change in the trend.
The Money Flow Index shows a bullish divergence, a strong signal of opening a long position.
Fundamental analysis directs us to quarterly reports.
Revenues from Q4 / 2021 and Q1 / 2021 decreased from 652 218 to 551 644 thousand PLN. Rather logically, the September-December 2020 period was more profitable than the December-March period due to the COVID situation in Poland. The result was fear. Still, stopping at values close to Q3 / 2020 is a good sign.
Net profits pulled us back from Q4 / 2020 to Q1 / Q2 / 2020, which rather discourages people from investing in MRC.
The next MRC report will decide the value of the stock.
CDR Short Squeeze Failure?This is an update to: www.tradingview.com
As noted before we lacked upward movement that could end 2nd elliott wave in a statistically popular fibo retracement level. As short squeeze against Mevlin Capital inspired detail investors we have reached a popular level of 61.8%. It seems that memes have lost their momentum for buying stocks like GME or AMC according to what can be seen on the charts I assume the same will happen CDR. Just as writing this possibly S&P500 and NDX stocks are starting to loose upward momentum for the day tomorrow might be a crucial day for CDR. Reaching MA200 cannot come unnoted.
New Fundamentals (previous are still in effect):
Polish WIG20 index which CDR is part of has reached a significant barrier where bears can return.
New Speculation (previous are still in effect):
Short squeeze against Melin Capital (still shorting CDR but at significantly lower level) is loosing momentum as panic movements can be observed both on GME and AMC.
BLACK SWAN PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO WIG20This pessimistic scenario is based upon current state of healthcare services in Poland which were underfinanced for many years and have very limited resources in qualified personell and equipment.
There is significant lack of nurses and doctors in Poland not mentioning available hospital beds which means the system is near its breaking point.
Recents countrywide protests could lead to epidemic spread of Covid 19 infection which will soon paralyse healthcare sytem and force goverment to freeze everything.