Canadian dollar drifting ahead of CPI releaseThe Canadian dollar is showing little movement on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3382, down 0.13%. We could see stronger movement from the Canadian dollar in the North American session, with the release of the Canadian inflation report.
Canada releases the November inflation report later on Tuesday. In October, inflation dropped to 3.1% y/y, down sharply from 3.8%. The market consensus for November stands at 2.9%. Two key core inflation indicators are expected to ease to an average of 3.3%, down from an average of 3.5% in October.
A further drop in inflation would be an encouraging sign for the Bank of Canada, which has raised the cash rate to 5.0% but has paused three straight times. The BoC remained hawkish at the December meeting and kept the door open to additional rate hikes but the markets are convinced that the rate-tightening cycle is over and have priced in rate cuts next year, starting in mid-2024.
A drop in the November inflation report would bolster expectations for rate cuts next year. If inflation surprises on the upside, it would bolster the Canadian dollar and force the BoC to continue pausing rates at restrictive levels ('higher for lower').
The US dollar has hit a rough patch since the Fed meeting last week when Fed Chair Powell penciled in three rate cuts next year. Traders are far more bullish and have priced in six rate hikes in 2024, starting in March.
We're seeing some pushback from the Fed to dampen rate-cut fever in the markets. On Friday, New York Fed President John Williams said a rate cut in March was "premature" and even warned that rates could move higher if inflation were to stall or reverse. Cleveland Fed President Mester said on Monday that the markets are a "bit ahead" of the Fed on rate cuts, as the Fed was focused on how long it would need to maintain rates in restrictive territory, while the markets were focused on rate cuts.
USD/CAD is testing support at 1.3363. Below, there is support at 1.3327
There is resistance at 1.3386 and 1.3422
Williams %R (%R)
Fetch.ai (FET) Price Dips in September – October's Direction UncThe price of Fetch.ai (FET) saw a decline following its failure to breach the $0.27 resistance zone on September 3rd, initiating a bearish trend.
The situation remains precarious, as failure to secure a close above the $0.23-$0.24 Fib resistance range could signal the continuation of the bearish trend, potentially leading to a significant drop.
Approaching the Ascending Support Trendline
Since its rejection from the $0.27 resistance area on September 3rd, Fetch.ai (FET) has experienced a downward trajectory. However, it’s not all bad news.
FET's price has been following an ascending support trendline since June 2022. Recent validations of this trendline occurred on August 17th and 22nd. These instances were marked by long lower wicks, which indicates buying pressure.
The pace of increase accelerated after the last validation, propelling the FET price to $0.27 on September 3rd. However, it failed to breach this resistance level, which has persisted since May, resulting in the ongoing downward movement.
In order for FET to commence a new bull run, it will need to surpass the 100 Exponential Moving Average. The 100 EMA acts as a mobile support and resistance. Currently, the 100 EMA is above the price, therefore the indicator works as a resistance.
Williams %R is another indicator that we should look at. The Williams %R is a momentum oscillator that gauges the market. If the indicator is below -80, it means FET is oversold and expected to bounce back. If it is above -20, it is overbought and expected to fall back again. Currently Williams %R is approaching oversold levels, which coincides well with the ascending support trendline.
Looking Ahead: FET is approaching an ascending support line, and the Williams %R is approaching oversold levels, which make a rebound on the table. However, for a rebound to take place, the price needs to break above the 100 EMA first.
Virgin Galactic - SPCE outlook showing signs of strengthLooking a the SPCE chart from a birds eye view it shows the company is overdue for a run. For months it's been trading sideways. It almost looks like it's break out of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Until recently a spike caused by bullish news sending the stock from around 4.04 to 6.50.
On the run up it rejected the 6.50 price and came back mid day to the 4.50 level. The Fixed range volume profile showed from 4.04 to 6.50 on the initial the point of control was shifted to 6.50 where most volume was traded at the top. It showed a new level of support based on the visible range volume profile after it was rejected in the 4.81 - 4.63 range which to me was a buy zone. Even if it drops a little bit im okay with the risk to reward ratio with calls out to July 7th.
I wanted to get in it but I wasn't going to buy in at the top. The visible range volume profile showed me that most the volume came from these price levels. The fixed So I took the trade and look for a momentum run up in anticipation of the commercial flight between june 27th and june 30th.
The blue horizontal lines represent my take profit levels with the first retesting the 6.50 level. If price moves agressive I'm looking for it to close gaps from the prior months. The closer to launch date I can see it running up because people don't want to miss the run and a lot of buying pressure should be coming in up to these dates. Not to mention there's another flight shortly after in July I believe if there are no delays.
We will see how this plays out. My calls don't expire until July 7th after the first flight if there are no delays.
Thanks for taking the time out to read this.
Trade responsible,
Jay
#TradeTheWave
Smash Candle Buy Opportunity Hello Traders!
Here we can see this candle close below the many PDL.
This can be a perfect opportunity for commercials to load long.
For us small traders we must wait to see if we can get a confirmation for a buy.
If the price returns back to this candle's high it signs they want the price to keep going higher.
🟦 William O'Neil Rule – WALL OF BLUE**Publishing again because it got taken down by Mods**
While this has pulled back recently - it reminds me of a lesson from the great trader William O'Neil and his lesson for the "WALL OF BLUE" 🟦
Not many know this rule, so hope you like it!
Wall of blue rule states that when you have 4+ weeks of blue volume bars (blue volume bars = volume when the week close up, hence up weeks), then this is a buy signal of itself.
In the case of $SMCI we also have above average volume - which is additional strength and confirmation.
This is a signal that the stock is under heavy accumulation from institutions and hence why it made +83% advancement.
Now it is pulling back and it is extended from any base - so I would not touch it here, but it is a good example to illustrate the rule
HOW-TO [TTI] IBD Market SchoolHOW-TO instruction.
This video shows how my custom IBD Market School Indicator works for TradingView.
–––––––HISTORY & CREDITS–––––––
This indicator is based on the Market School Program from IBD and it is the core logic for which I have developed the indicator. The whole system is based on the model books for the greatest winning stocks from the past. The names of the people who have contributed to this system are William-Oneil, Mike Webster and Charles Harris.
–––––––WHAT IT CALCULATES–––––––
10 Buy Signals:
👉Follow Through Day
👉Additional Follow Through Days
👉Low above 21-Day MA
👉Trending above 21-Day MA
👉Living above 21-Day MA
👉Low above 50-Day MA
👉Accumulation Day
👉Higher High
👉Downside Reversal BuyBack
👉Distribution Day Fall Off
14 Sell Signals:
👉Follow Through Day Undercut
👉Failed Rally Attempt
👉Full Distribution minus One
👉Full Distribution
👉Break Below 21-Day MA
👉Overdue Break Below 21-Day MA
👉Trending Below 21-Day MA
👉Living Below 21-Day MA
👉Break Below 50-Day MA
👉Bad Break
👉Downside Reversal Day
👉Lower Low
👉Distribution Cluster
👉Break Below Higher High
–––––––HOW TO USE–––––––
Each buy signal is a +1 and each sell signal is -1 point to the general count.
We will add all buy and sell signals to produce an overall count from 0 to 5. Based on the count this will translate to market exposure from 0 (at count 0) to 100% (at count 5). Essentially this will help you scale in and out of the market.
Market Exposure after FTDIBD Market School indicator suggest we have a clear sky to start testing waters. Here is what the methodology has flagged after the recent Rally Day.
Annotations
1 = Most recent unbroken Rally Day
2 = Follow Through Day
3 = Confirming Buy signal (named B3)
4 = Additional Follow Through Day + Confirming Buy Signal (B8)
5 = Permitable Market Exposure as per the methodology
My approach!
I do not have an exposure of 90% currently as 5 suggests. This is only guidence. I am more conservative and rather have taken a few tiny pilot positions. I want to see that the action is confirming. We are reaching the 21EMA on SP500 and hence I expect some stalling here. We also have an important earnings in the recent days, which means that there could be abrupt failure.
$eRSDL - William's_R_ovrsld_long_1hr - Price seems to have cooled enough from the weekend pump to start adding more. NA markets open for the week in an hour. FA remains strong. William's %R is oversold. Potential bounce here if volume picks up. Set alerts, DCA.
Call/limit order filled: 0.01245
tp_01: 0.01562
tp_02: 0.01870
stop: 0.01091
Never margin trade. Go well
(-(-(-(-_-)-)-)-)
Apple trading ideaHere is my simple Apple trading idea base on simple indicatiors (Moving average (MA) + Support/resistance level + William %R).
This is applicable if you are a long term investor, looking to average down your holding.
Potential buy = Near support + Wiliam %R below -80% (+ BONUS if touches any MA; 20,50,150,200)
Potential sell = Near resistance + William %R above - 20% (+ BONUS if touches all time high)
$BTCUSD ascending channel 1D - Doom?gm. Let's try this again lol.
$BTCUSD remains at an area of support in an ascending channel on the daily time frame. Can bulls hold on here? I am not entirely convinced. Looking weak... let us see what the NA open do. Williams %R signaling oversold,
media sentiment is "Doom-loop". Play the game.
Call limit order filled: 39557
tp_01: 42591
Stop: 36316
If the channel breaks, a move down towards fractal 34324 is possible.
spot trade. Don't margin trade.
The Complete Guide Into The World of IndicatorsGood time of the day, traders! As you can tell from a pretty self-explanatory name, this is our last and full review on all of the most useful indicators available for public use. The first two parts are linked to this post and now we’re going to take a look at our last 3 indicators.
The Williams Percent Range, commonly known as the Williams Percent R, is a momentum indicator that displays where the most recent closing price is in relation to the highest and lowest prices during a specified time period. William’s percent R is an oscillator that notifies you whether a currency pair is "overbought" or "oversold." Consider it a more sensitive and less popular form of Stochastic. It has RSI-like characteristics as a momentum indicator since it evaluates the strength of a current trend. Traders, on the other hand, utilize percent R's extreme values (-20 and -80) for clues, whereas RSI employs its mid-point number (50) to gauge trend strength.
It might be useful to judge the strength of a trend, independent of its direction, while trading. When it comes to determining the strength of a trend, the Average Directional Index is a widely used technical indicator. Another type of oscillator is the Average Directional Index, or ADX for short. The ADX is a trend indicator that ranges from 0 to 100, with values below 20 suggesting a weak trend and readings above 50 indicating a strong trend. The ADX formula is complex, but in a word, the greater the ADX, the stronger the trend. When the ADX is low, it signals that the price is likely to move laterally or trade in a range. When the ADX rises above 50, it means that the price is gaining momentum in one direction. In contrast to Stochastic, ADX does not indicate whether a trend is bullish or bearish. Rather, it only assesses the present trend's strength. As a result, ADX is frequently used to determine if the market is range or beginning a new trend. The ADX is a "non-directional" indicator. It is based on comparing the highs and lows of bars, rather than the bar's closure. Regardless of whether the trend is up or down, the greater the reading, the stronger the trend.
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (IKH) is a price momentum indicator that forecasts future levels of support and resistance. Ichimoku may be used to any tradeable asset in any time frame. (Originally, it was used to exchange rice) In both rising and declining markets, Ichimoku can be utilised. Do not use Ichimoku where is not an obvious trend and market is choppy. Pro-tip: Ichimoku works the best for JPY pairs.
Honestly, while writing about Ichimoku (which I used every day couple years ago), I realized that it’s a very large topic by itself. So, leave a comment, if you guys want more details on how to set it up and use it. As per usual, have a great trading week, fam!
SPX's William % & Stoch weekly conflicting results !!!I could not find a set-up for both indicators ? for tops they both can stay up their hitting the Roof for months !!! .
it is like a dog chasing his tail !!! literally . For bottoms William is much better in searching for one. but, as usual
it gives quite early signal !!! which make it risky if used alone and quite frankly you could get caught in the middle or miss !!!
wish u all the best.
Bittorrent Potential Triangle BreakoutNice triangle pattern here breaking the b-d trendline, momentum looks bullish , strong bottoming fractal , wave-A retraced 61%, waves A + B cover the same amount of time (potential for a very large diametric to develop). Good probability this one has bottomed. I suspect a full retracement of this triangle is coming over the next few months.
A break of the recent low would indicate a much more severe downtrend is going to occur.
AUS/JPY descent through diagonal support, going bearish?Hi. Plotted on the 1D chart is a diagonal support line. It has recently been broken.
On it I've also pointed out the near crossing of the Ichimoku conversion line and base line.
The MACD is also turning away from its signal line in a downward direction and if the trend continues is will also soon pass the top line of the Williams.
In the 4h chart the MACD and WIlliams is not as indicative of a downturn but instead the Ichimoku shows a recent crossing into a red cloud which is indicative.
Thank you. Please, if you have any thoughts or comments do leave them below and I would gladly discuss or adjust my interpretations and methods with you.
This does not constitute financial advice.
Any projected prices, even if explicitly stated, are made with intent to discuss the symbol and potential interpretations.
Any trades shown or mentioned are examples and neither recommendations or mandates.