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Williams %R (%R)

Perfect Bullish Gartley on Daily ETHBTCEthereum is in a perfect bullish Gartley potential reversal zone. A "perfect" Gartley is defined as one that has an AB=CD and a 1.27BC=CD. On top of this we also have the first bullish wiseman signal on the 1D chart and if it were to continue up it would activate the other two signals. There's also the usual bullish divergence and a potential completed triangle pattern (possibly a Wolfe wave?). On the other hand if this chart were to break down under the low it would be a good idea to stop out and reverse to make back your losses. For now the long-side has great risk/reward, Initial profit objective would be around 0.015 and 2nd target would be around 0.023, if this is a Wolfe wave the target could be as high as 0.034. It will likely be a good idea to get more aggressive on the long side if this breaks above 0.0115 Bitcoin is also looking very bearish so this compliments that set up perfectly and both are extremely good r/r with potential reverse trades if the stops are hit.
Long
by Intuit
22
Bitcoin Preparing for Deep Retracement to Sub-600 (Elliott Wave) The smallest degree shown here appears to be finishing a fairly clear double zigzag. On the 60m chart you can see a confirmed terminal wave 5 of c which likely puts us at the end of the larger pattern as well, though, the small possibility of this forming into a triple zigzag can't be fully ruled out, it is also very unlikely. With that in mind this double zigzag is very likely completed and will be confirmed shortly at which point it may be a good idea to get very aggressive with this trade until it reaches about a 70-80% retracement of wave (b), which is the common retracement for a double zigzag. Wave (c) will also likely relate to wave (a) by 1.0 in time so this could potentially end right after quarterly settlement at the end of the year, which would mean this is potentially the top for the next couple of months, until we get a new bull run which should be much stronger than wave (b) and retrace wave (c) faster than it was formed to be fully confirmed. There are also really big daily bearish divergences that look ready to pop and a perfect double top on BTCUSD. This leaves us with a very good r/r trade that is fairly likely to be confirmed and will be confirmed if it breaks the b-b trendline and retraces all of wave c faster than it was formed. As customary with unconfirmed counts it is better to wait for more confirmations on this larger count before getting too aggressive, but on the shorter 60m count there is definitely a confirmed terminal impulse wave 5 that you could certainly get pretty aggressive on if this initial down move isn't retraced too deeply, and from there it may continue on to confirm the larger count as well, which is very likely to happen because usually the whole impulse will be retraced when there is a terminal wave 5. This sets us up with a really good risk/reward trade on the 60m chart which is confirmed and if this does end up violating the top and trigger the stops it will likely be profitable to stop and reverse so you can make back all your losses because it will likely continue on to form into a triple zigzag which could take us significantly higher. Always remember to want what the market wants. Inner peace is the most valuable commodity you can attain. Be fearful and logical in your management, greedy in your analysis, and confident in your trading. Having fun is the key to successful trading and being able to reverse a bad trade. Fear will only cripple you during trading hours, fear can find risk/reward and manage but it is a terrible trader because it makes you do the wrong things at the wrong times, you can't be fearful and confident at the same time. Confidence knows what to do and when to do it, and its a great trader, but it's a reckless manager and analyst. Greed puts you in the best mindset for finding the underlying structure of the market as long as you are following your management strategy and don't get suckered into get rich quick schemes. A fully integrated approach of managerial fear, greedy analysis, and then confident trading is the ideal integration of all parts of the human psyche into your trading, and if you can work from a mindset of creativity instead of problem solving, and you can have fun while you trade, then you will be able to use the power of human intuition, inspiration and insight to improve your trading even further.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Intuit
43
There are no silver bulletsWe all know there are no silver bullets, specially when it comes to trading, but this play looks promising and there are several signs that should raise some red flags. We entered a bear market since last top around 21 and since then we have been oscilating between lower highs and lower lows. I believe this trend will be kept until US elections and/or rate hike, which I think will be almost simultaneous. On the technical side, we hit the 0,618 resistance and several indicators are showing a downward momentum. Today's candle (don't remember the name) is clearly signaling a reversal. Unless we make a green candle today, I think next week there will be a fall.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by purpurato59
8/29/2016 WTI Oil Short - Fib levels and candle analysisHello everyone. Been a while since I traded again. I've been holding back since Brexit and trying to avoid trading with the US elections going on but started looking at charts again last week. Today I am entering short on WTI Crude Oil. I have entered at the current price of 46.94$ with a stop loss of 50$. Please use your own judgment if you trade in agreement for your entry and limits. As shown we have a traditional candle pattern of an Evening Star within the last 5 days. On top of this formation we have what may be a double top while coming down from a 76.4 Fibonacci replacement and sitting on the support of the 61.8 level waiting to break under. Not only do we have both of these going on, there is also bearish divergence in Williams %R and Stochastic Oscillator, depending on your settings for them. My stochastic is set to be the same as Williams %R on default settings. I didn't mark it on my chart but you can also see a very large volume for the week on the day of the doji candle.
FX:USOILShort
by miyako.pro
1
Selling climax Last friday we saw another failed attempt from bulls to take over the market. The result was this daily shooting star candle, signaling the beginning of the downtrend. The 0,5 angle is now acting as resistance and next target is at least on the 0,382 angle below. My short signal is active on the weekly and daily, and even the monthly which I rarely look, is pointing towards the same downward momentum. There is one important factor about timing that should not be neglected: next week: it's the beginning of the full moon. Note how many times there has been a selling spree during this period. During new moon, marrket tops and the next downward phase has its selling climax during the full moon. Place your short, be gentle to wife/girlfriend and enjoy the week.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by purpurato59
2
SELL EURUSD & GBPUSD HEDGE BUY AUD/ NZD: FED WILLIAMS SPEECH Fed Willams was hawkish on the margin and much of what was said was in line with Dudley and Bullard today/ this week in what looks like an attempt to give the USD a support as it slipped and closed below the 2yr average today and struggles to find support despite 5-consecutive days of selling. Trading strategy: 1. Given USD weakness I like GBPUSD shorts at 1.32 if possible if not 1.318 is good enough (be prepared to hold for some time if the market moves higher 1-2wks possible), but more importantly given the dovish ECB minutes I like short EURUSD at these high levels and after 5-days of back to back selling this looks like a good statistical level to sell into. 2. Possible hedges include short USDJPY on the inevitable risk backdrop that is ever waiting to happen as US equities now struggle to cling on to making new records and the excitement of doing so - a bear is coming so long yen at good levels makes sense here. Also long the antipodes with the 6-9m high yield trend in mind and likely to continue (especially as poor USD data continues to weigh on the pairs especially given the above average employment report from both which may indicate signs of firming inflation too), whilst it has been tough (especially in aussie) this week, consistency/ sticking with the trade has proven profitable when buying dips as aussie or kiwi selling hasnt lasted more than 18hrs in reality and i expect this to continue with little reason to sell either now the biggest and only real risk e.g. RBNZ and RBA and then employment data has passed possibly as well as antipode bulls could have hoped. Given the AUDNZD complex lower kiwi longs look better vs USD but technically we require a firm breakout from the 0.733 12m highs before any real commitment buying will or can be seen behind kiwi thus aussie given 120pips of free topside room looks more attractive though the RHS has remained illusive as yet. Fed Williams Speech Highlights: -FED'S WILLIAMS WARNS THAT WAITING TOO LONG TO RAISE RATES RISKS HARD LANDING OR EVEN -RECESSION -WILLIAMS SAYS U.S. ECONOMY IS STRONG -WILLIAMS SAYS RESTARTING RATE HIKES EARLIER ALLOWS MORE GRADUAL PACE -WILLIAMS SAYS INFLATION ON COURSE TO MEET 2-PCT GOAL -WILLIAMS SAYS U.S. ECONOMY IS GENERATING JOBS AT UNSUSTAINABLE PACE -FED'S WILLIAMS SAYS WANTS GRADUAL INTEREST RATE INCREASES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS -WILLIAMS SAYS NEGATIVE RATES IN THE U.S. WOULD HAVE BIGGER COSTS THAN BENEFITS -FED'S WILLIAMS SAYS WEAKNESS ABROAD IS ONE REASON FED HAS NOT RAISED RATES AS FAST AS HAD EXPECTED -WILLIAMS SAYS THERE IS VERY LOW RISK OF NEEDING TO GO TO NEGATIVE RATES U.S. -WILLIAMS SAYS FED NEEDS TO TAKE AWAY THE 'PUNCH BOWL' OF LOW RATES -FED'S WILLIAMS: WAGE GROWTH BEGINNING TO PICK UP -FED'S WILLIAMS CALLS FOR RAISING RATES SOONER RATHER THAN LATER; DELAYING RISKS RECESSION
TVC:DXY
by QuantumLogicTrading
2
USD/ DXY: FOMC DUDLEY & WILLIAMS - BREXIT & US ECONOMY SPILLOVER1. IMO Dudley tipped to the dovish side, especially on key inflation highlighting that it is " rising again, but still low". Other rhetoric reaffirmed much of what has been said post the brexit vote e.g. Uncertainty being the biggest factor. 2. Meanwhile, Williams was notably more upbeat/ optimistic, shrugging off the US's shock miss NFP report to instead point out that the underlying trend remains upward. He also relatively underplayed Brexit by saying his baseline view is that it will have a "modest impact" vs Dudleys sitting on the fence of "too soon to say". Further, Williams went on to underplay Brexit as a "normal global economic uncertainty". 3. Nonetheless, both found common ground regarding the "Uncertainty" surrounding the Brexit US spillover effects and "data dependency" being key for FOMC decisions. This has been the case not only between the two today but also for several members in the past few weeks/ months. 4. USD now looks to FOMC Minutes from the June Meeting for any further hints of net member direction and NFP on Friday. I expect much of the same, with bias to Dudley's more cautious/ dovish approach likely to underlie the Minutes but hopefully an outstanding NFP report to spur the USD. 5. The 30-day Federal Funds Rate futures market sold-off Fridays Hawkish gains today, with the Implied Probability of a 25bps FOMC rate hike significantly flattened across the curve, with a Sept/ Nov Hike now at 0% vs 5.9%, Dec at 13.7% vs 22.3% and Feb 2017 at 13.4% vs 21.8%. We also saw a dovish skew across the tenors in favour of a 25bps cut, with Sept/Nov probabilities increasing to 2.4% vs 2.2% Sept and 4.4% vs 2.2% Nov. July expectations traded flat at 97.6% no change. 6. Nonetheless, it was William's bias that won the day as DXY Traded well offered, up 66pips at 96.21, much of which driven by the risk-off turn markets have taken, sending USD higher across the board, most notably against the antipodeans (RBA driven), CAD (oil 4% lower) and GBP (down 2%) as BOE Gov Carney continued to provide dovish sentiment. Also imo earnings season $ demand may have started to price the index higher. 7. Going forward I expect to see continued USD strength across the board as GBP, the Antipodeans, CAD and JPY are likely to realise weakness on the back of poor economic fundamentals, brexit, and further oil falling (global growth worries - brexit/ china linked). Also I expect BOJ easing to price UJ higher in the near future which, all in all, should provide the perfect environment for a higher DXY and USD especially against JPY, NZD and GBP over the next 4-6wks for the attached reasons. End of week DXY should close up 3%+ if NFP comes in firm/ strong - 98.5 target Dudley on US Economy: - Dudley: Brexit Main Uncertainty, Too Soon to Say Impact Yet - Dudley: Investment in U.S. Also an Uncertainty - Dudley: Inflation Is Rising Again, But Still Low - Dudley: Fed Policy Remains Data Dependent - Dudley: Uncertain Outlook Means Can't Predict Fed's Next Move Williams on Brexit: - "I think the economic effects, on the baseline scenario, are relatively modest, but there still is the uncertainty about how things are actually going to play out," - "I would say that what's happened with Brexit has been just one of the normal uncertainties that always occur in the global economy and things that we just have to take into account," - On the poor US Jobs Report - "the underlying trend continues to be good, continues to be above trend and continues to show that the economy is strengthening and not weakening,"
TVC:DXYLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
Triple resistance and %R crossdownStock popped a couple percent even after missing earnings estimate this morning, which put the price above the 100DMA for a little while. It looks like Williams %R is about to cross back down from the overbought zone and there are 3 resistance indications meeting at this time: 100DMA Fibonacci retracement (0.618) Fibonacci fan (0.382) I set the target and stops hovering around the fibonnaci retracement lines, I'll be paying attention to the moving averages and if they appear to show support (such as the 50DMA) I may tighten the stop to protect a sliver of profit.
BShort
by MindsForge
USDJPY ShortWilliams: The alligator's mouth is horizontal but points sightly down - closed - asleep. Momentum is approaching zero. It's been a while since a new high. The RSI is pointing downward below 50. Expect a nice move down - a significant correction to the dollar bull market...could be several months. Sell on a break of 115,842. Bollinger: bands (20ma) are narrowing and at the lower end of normal width...minimum volatility. The price is below the 20 day MA and has been for a while. The bands point down. The latest daily candle looks weak - may be a gravestone at end of day. The last time price was above the bands was more than month ago. Price has been below the bands twice in that time.
Short
by ChaosTrader
1
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CME_MINI:ES1!
by ChrisMoody
43