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How to Trade to Win"Those who lose - trade not to lose. Those who are successful - trade to Win." Losing Vs Winning Most traders are more focused on not losing than they are on winning. Do you understand what this means? This means you are acting not in your best interest, but against your self. By focusing on how much you can or might lose, or on not losing, you increase the likelihood of making mistakes which ultimately lead to a losing traders equation, and a negative equity curve. Profitable traders do not care about losing. They understand it is part of winning. They focus on winning. What is the best move in this moment? Should I get out or continue to hold based on what the market is telling me? Winning traders accept the risk totally and completely; before getting into the trade. In other words, they have already lost what is on the line. Therefore they act in their own best interest, not based on their thoughts about what they could lose, but based on what the market is telling them to do in this moment. Other than this psychological difference, here are a few other key components on How to Trade To Win. Defined Edge - Every trader who is making money in the market has some form of edge which he employs. Even if his edge is purely intuitive. This is extreme and rare however, and most traders have clearly defined their edge and will only trade that edge. This removes randomness. Many beginners think they are going to study the market and be able to trade the market no matter what it is doing (trade intuitively). This is simply not the case for most. The purpose of studying the market is to identify opportunities in form of an edge. An edge is a setup or context which repeats itself over time. It might occur once a day, once a week, or once a month. It does not matter. All that matters is that you only trade your clearly defined edge, and leave the randomness behind. For more information, you can read about the edge I use in every market I trade. We also describe how you can develop your own edge, and trade it in any market. Stop Doing, Relax Efforts - If you are losing in the market, chances are you are doing too much. Many beginners, and even experienced traders think they must be trading in order to be a successful trader. This leads to random trading, over trading, and mistakes which compound themselves. You end up digging a hole, and instead of looking for a way out, you look for a different shovel. The harder you try to make a profit, the more you do, the more actions you make, and the more you lose. The market rewards those who are observant, disciplined, and most importantly patient. The market takes from those who try too hard, and do too much. If you dont believe me, try as hard as you can to make money, and see how you do! By relaxing your efforts, you relax your mind. In turn relax your actions and decision making. You do not have to trade every day to be a profitable trader. It sounds paradoxical doesn't it? How can I make money trading if I dont trade? By only trading when it is appropriate like when your edge is present, you better your odds of success. Profitable trading does not come from trading constantly. Profitable trading comes from the act of non-doing, and out of a state of emptiness. Profitable trading is effortless, it comes out of waiting for just the right moment before taking action. And then waiting some more while the market proves you right or wrong. Profitable trading is not forced; it just happens. Active VS Passive Trading - This is very similar to the previous topic. Active trading is a trader who is constantly in the market, trading whatever he see's or feels right. This trader is often wrong, and when he is right he makes the mistake of exiting too early due to fear. This leads to a negative traders equation as he continues to struggle to do the right thing. An Active Trader mentality is one which does not believe in "non-doing." He believes he must, and can, do something. He is afraid of missing out and is often swayed by thoughts and emotions. So he continues trading never looking back, and at the end of the month cannot figure out why his account is in the red. A Passive Trader is the opposite. He passes on more trades than he takes. He does not care about what he misses out on. He only cares about what he takes and the actions he makes in the market. He does not force trades, he just watches the market until he knows what to do. Or he waits and waits until his edge finally sets up. He is passive in his efforts, rather than active. He does not care if he doesn't trade today, this week, or even this month. Trading is not what is important to him; winning is. He knows that profits come from sitting, waiting. Because he is willing to wait, he is peaceful. And profits continue to come into his account, effortlessly. For more information on developing this type of mentality, see below. We also detail how to understand markets through price action, how to create, define, and employ an edge, and how to develop your traders mentality to succeed in markets. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions
Education
by tradersmentality
Trading To Win "Those who lose - trade not to lose. Those who are successful - trade to Win." Losing Vs Winning Most traders are more focused on not losing than they are on winning. Do you understand what this means? This means you are acting not in your best interest, but against your self. By focusing on how much you can or might lose, or on not losing, you increase the likelihood of making mistakes which ultimately lead to a losing traders equation, and a negative equity curve. Profitable traders do not care about losing. They understand it is part of winning. They focus on winning. What is the best move in this moment? Should I get out or continue to hold based on what the market is telling me? Winning traders accept the risk totally and completely; before getting into the trade. In other words, they have already lost what is on the line. Therefore they act in their own best interest, not based on their thoughts about what they could lose, but based on what the market is telling them to do in this moment. Other than this psychological difference, here are a few other key components on How to Trade To Win. Defined Edge - Every trader who is making money in the market has some form of edge which he employs. Even if his edge is purely intuitive. This is extreme and rare however, and most traders have clearly defined their edge and will only trade that edge. This removes randomness. Many beginners think they are going to study the market and be able to trade the market no matter what it is doing (trade intuitively). This is simply not the case for most. The purpose of studying the market is to identify opportunities in form of an edge. An edge is a setup or context which repeats itself over time. It might occur once a day, once a week, or once a month. It does not matter. All that matters is that you only trade your clearly defined edge, and leave the randomness behind. For more information, you can read about the edge I use in every market I trade. We also describe how you can develop your own edge, and trade it in any market. Stop Doing, Relax Efforts - If you are losing in the market, chances are you are doing too much. Many beginners, and even experienced traders think they must be trading in order to be a successful trader. This leads to random trading, over trading, and mistakes which compound themselves. You end up digging a hole, and instead of looking for a way out, you look for a different shovel. The harder you try to make a profit, the more you do, the more actions you make, and the more you lose. The market rewards those who are observant, disciplined, and most importantly patient. The market takes from those who try too hard, and do too much. If you dont believe me, try as hard as you can to make money, and see how you do! By relaxing your efforts, you relax your mind. In turn relax your actions and decision making. You do not have to trade every day to be a profitable trader. It sounds paradoxical doesn't it? How can I make money trading if I dont trade? By only trading when it is appropriate like when your edge is present, you better your odds of success. Profitable trading does not come from trading constantly. Profitable trading comes from the act of non-doing, and out of a state of emptiness. Profitable trading is effortless, it comes out of waiting for just the right moment before taking action. And then waiting some more while the market proves you right or wrong. Profitable trading is not forced; it just happens. Active VS Passive Trading - This is very similar to the previous topic. Active trading is a trader who is constantly in the market, trading whatever he see's or feels right. This trader is often wrong, and when he is right he makes the mistake of exiting too early due to fear. This leads to a negative traders equation as he continues to struggle to do the right thing. An Active Trader mentality is one which does not believe in "non-doing." He believes he must, and can, do something. He is afraid of missing out and is often swayed by thoughts and emotions. So he continues trading never looking back, and at the end of the month cannot figure out why his account is in the red. A Passive Trader is the opposite. He passes on more trades than he takes. He does not care about what he misses out on. He only cares about what he takes and the actions he makes in the market. He does not force trades, he just watches the market until he knows what to do. Or he waits and waits until his edge finally sets up. He is passive in his efforts, rather than active. He does not care if he doesn't trade today, this week, or even this month. Trading is not what is important to him; winning is. He knows that profits come from sitting, waiting. Because he is willing to wait, he is peaceful. And profits continue to come into his account, effortlessly. For more information on developing this type of mentality, see below. We also detail how to understand markets through price action, how to create, define, and employ an edge, and how to develop your traders mentality to succeed in markets. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by tradersmentality
4
The Top 3 Reasons Traders Lose and Give up1). Over-trading and Random trading. Most people and traders think in order to make money as a trader you have to be trading all the time. If you are simply watching the market, you are missing out, or not doing your job by not trading it. This leads to over trading, and trading randomly or outside of your edge. Any trades taken that are not apart of your trading plan and do not align with your clearly defined edge, should be considered random trading. This is common after losing, because the natural tendency to want to make back what you lost. This only compounds mistakes and adds to the losses, making it even harder to recover both emotionally and financially. Being excited or eager to trade is normal, especially for beginners who are drawn to the profit potential. We are all in the market to make money, and if you are not in the market you are not making money. But more often than not, being out of the market is the right thing to do. It is often better to not make any money, than to lose it! By understanding, developing, and only trading your edge you increase your likelihood of earning a consistent income. Remember, all edges have a failure rate between 40-60%. So it is important to not jump back into the market after losing, until the next time your edge sets up. If you do not know what your edge is, you should only trade SIM or not at all until you develop one. 2). Scalping or Not Allowing for Windfall Profits. There is an old saying on Wall Street "you cant go broke taking profits." But you absolutely can go broke by taking profits, primarily when your losses are bigger than your wins. It has become common these days for people to advocate scalping. But they do not understand that the math is against them. They think since the high frequency trading firms are scalping for ticks or a point, that they should too. But a retail trader cannot compete with these institutions. They have algorithms that can make 10 trades faster than you blink, pay minimal commissions, have direct access to the exchanges, hedge their trades, and often use wide stops and scale in to positions. A beginner should never scalp, and even those with experience are better off swing trading as it offers a less stressful and less difficult way to trade profitably. When swing trading it only takes 1 out of 10 trades to offset all the losers and provide a profit. This is the complete opposite of scalping, where it takes 10 winners to offset one large loss. Or if you are using a smaller stop like twice your target (1 point target and 2 point stop), it still takes 2 trades to make up a single loss and a third to make a minuscule profit after commissions. What happens when you lose again? This cycle repeats over and over, and the trader dies slowly but surely from 100 bee stings. 3). Wrong Mentality. There are many examples of the wrong traders mentality which prevents success for so many. One of which is losing. Most traders do not like to lose, they see losing as a problem. They do not understand that losers lead to winners, and that losing is the natural cycle of trading and is imperative to a consistent return. You cant win if you dont lose! Another example is emotions. Most traders see emotions as the enemy, that which stands between themselves and the market, and prevents them from succeeding. So they work to try and remove emotions. But this is not possible. As long as you are a human you will have emotions. You can never remove them. The key is to understand them, and use them to your advantage in the market. And when you are not in the right mental state, remove yourself from the market altogether. A third example is fighting the market. This relates back to the first topic, over trading and random trading. Many traders do not realize the market does not always offer what they are seeking. A trading range is a good example of this. In a trading range, the market goes sideways there are many failures, and the market does not get very far. What happens to a trader who does not realize this? He continues fighting the market, looking for a large gain when the market is not offering one. So it is important to understand your self and the market. Not just the market. You need to be able to realize when you should not be trading because your mind is not in the right state productive to trading. As well as knowing and understanding your edge, which also means the market context it works well in, and when it does not. For more understanding on these topics and more, including how to develop an edge and how to better your traders mentality, see website below. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
by tradersmentality
1
Day Trading - Only Strong Trend Days (Can also be used on HTF)Day Trading - Only Strong Trend Days (Can also be used on HTF) There are generally only 2-5 strong trend days a month. The majority of trading days are some form of trading range days, either within a range or a weak channel which reverses and forms a trading range. On strong trend days the market offers what most traders want - a high probability of a large reward, with a tolerable risk. Usually the risk feels greater (and often is) on a strong trend day because there is a sense of urgency, and the bars are often bigger than normal. On trading range days the bars tend to be smaller, offering what appears to be a lower reward, but there are many more failures and reversals. This makes it very difficult to identify a good setup, and even when there is one the market does not make it very far before there is an opposite reversal. This lures unsuspecting traders in, who continue fighting the market taking every trade or only the losers. This type of market is like a boa constrictor. The more you fight, the more you struggle, the tighter its grip and the harder it is to overcome the draw downs and emotional fatigue. Because these types of days are hard to trade and do not offer what I want (a good chance at a large reward), I choose to sit these days out. Instead, I wait for a strong trend day, and then continue to wait some more for a pullback and my edge. Does this mean I miss out on some good moves? Sure. But I do not care. I trade to win, not to trade for fun. It does not matter what I miss, it only matters what I take and the actions I make in the market. So how does a trader know if the day is a trading range day or likely to become a strong trend day and should be traded? In order to help guide you, here are some common characteristics of a trend day. "......" After the above has been identified - it is still better to wait for a pullback and an edge like a "......." This increases the likelihood of a good trade with a strong traders equation. It also helps decrease stress of prices going against the position as it often does when you just enter at the market or without an edge. Of course, waiting is not easy. Just like Tom Petty said "Waiting is the hardest part!" Does this mean you are less likely to lose? Usually, but not always. Even with trend trades fail, although less often. It is absolutely possible to lose money selling in a bear trend or vice versa. The key is to continue onward, and enter the next with trend trade if there is one. If not, or it also fails, prices are more than likely in a trading range and you just haven't yet realized it. If this is the case, it is often better to stop trading and wait for a strong trend day, rather than continuing to fight the market when it is not offering what you expected. **These ideas and strategies can also be applied to higher time frames and long term investing. "..." = withheld material from original post (members only material). If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions
SP:SPXEducation
by tradersmentality
Day Trading Trend or Trading Range? Can be applied to investingIn the previous article we discussed only trading on strong trend days or strong markets. We also identified what increases the likelihood of a day (or market) becoming a strong trend. As said before, there are only a handful of strong days a month (or only a few strong markets at any given time). Because of this, it is just as important to identify and understand when a market is likely not a trend and more likely a trading range. Within the first hour or two of the open (when day trading), it is often obvious if the day will likely become a trend day or a trading range. Once the market has been identified as likely a trading range, it is unlikely to become a trend day as the market tends to continue what it has been doing. In this case it is more likely to continue to have heavy two sided trading and less likely to convert into a strong and healthy trend. But wait - most channels are some form of trading range right? Yes. This is a form of slanted trading range, or a trending trading range. This is where the market is technically in a trend but it is very weak and likely to reverse at any time. In fact, by the close it will likely reverse and the trend is unlikely to remain intact. Characteristics of a Trading Range Day "............" So if most days are not trend days and are instead some sort of trading range, cant a day trader use this information to his advantage? Of course, if it aligns with your trading style or method. But you must understand that you are not likely to win on many trades, or win a large reward. Instead most trades even strong ones, only go for 1X the risk. On top of that there are many trades to take, most of which fail. This makes it difficult to remain focused and continue trading without emotions and without missing the trades you need to win to recover losses. What about only taking strong trades like ".......?" That is a reasonable thing to do, but the probability is still often lower and the reward is as well. And on these days most stop order entries fail, resulting in repeated failures. This is a "............." If not, you will likely get stopped out just before prices go your direction! Or the market will only go in your favor temporarily before stopping you out. This makes trading difficult for beginners and even for those with experience. However most do not realize they should simply remove themselves from the market during these times. Instead they continue to trade as they think they should, and continue to grow losses, making it harder to recover even on a good trading day. "I do not like to trade when the market is likely to reverse at any time. I only like to trade when the market is not likely to reverse at all." - Josh Ridenour **These ideas and strategies can also be applied to higher time frames and even long term investing. "..." = withheld material from original post (members only material). If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by tradersmentality
WIN rumo aos 100k!!!(?)Após a consolidação dos dia 12 e 13 de Março, o índice acabou rompendo a consolidação com movimento projetado para 99875. O Rompimento com boa continuidade chegou a tocar o topo histórico de 99900 porém sem romper os 100k, Passada a euforia, o preço testou a retração de 61.8% porém não teve forças para voltar a testar o topo. Acredito que possa se armar um belo pivô de alta caso rompa a máxima histórica. Porém, não rompendo, teremos as resistências do gráfico diário e as retrações de fibonacci desta pernada de alta que rompeu a consolidação.
BMFBOVESPA:WIN1!Long
by LucasParisi
Análise WING19Análise: Nos últimos dias percebemos que o índice fez um grande movimento de alta, rompendo várias resistências, formando topos históricos. Acreditamos que para o pregão do próximo dia 01/02/2019 (sexta-feira) poderá ocorrer uma correção ainda mais acentuada da tendência. Vários indícios apontam para isso. Para começar, ao traçarmos a retração de Fibonacci, podemos perceber que a última correção que finalizou o dia de hoje (quinta-feira) levou o índice a testar o nível de suporte que representa 38,2% de Fibonacci da última pernada de alta e que também vai de encontro com uma linha de tendência de alta. Apesar da linha de tendência em questão, acreditamos que a correção poderá se estender até o nível de 50% ou 61,8% de Fibonacci, com o rompimento da linha de tendência de alta (azul) e prevalência da linha de tendência de baixa (vermelha). Em que pese os indicadores BB, CCI e RSI apontarem que o preço está em níveis próximos de sobrevenda, podemos observar que ainda há bastante pressão vendedora. O MACD demonstra que o preço vem fazendo um movimento forte de retração que está longe do fim. Ademais, as médias 20 e 200 estão próximas de um cruzamento baixista e as médias 17 e 34 começam a se distanciar, dando sinais de que o movimento de queda ainda pode continuar. Advertência: Essa análise tem por finalidade identificar a tendência indratray do mini índice Bovespa (WIN), focada para operações de day trade. A análise representa a visão do autor e embasa suas operações de trade diárias, mas não se trata de uma recomendação de compra ou venda. O mercado de renda variável é de alto risco e possui momentos de muita volatilidade e outros momentos de baixa liquidez, por isso não é recomendável para investidores sem experiência.
BMFBOVESPA:WING2019Short
by Pinotti