Winrate improvement: Avoiding trades with resistance until TGTHey. I recently wrote "Where to target and what to do once there?". I am now looking at targets again, but not the "target" target. The "targets" that are in the way. I call them resistances, regardless of them being above or below, since they resist me making money, they resist my position, the price going further. We want to make money, so we improve on every aspect, including winrate. And how do you improve winrate? By throwing away the bad setups, those with high uncertainty, and those with plenty of resistance in the way. When there is 1 ton of res clustered if the price breaks it usually is very powerful and goes far but this is an exception I won't cover in this article.
Support is possibly more important as something that gets in your way when you are trying to hold a winner rather than a place to buy something. The main reason I see why support matters when you enter a position is because the price already tested that one, so that's 1 less obstacle, as well as you are as far away as humanly possible from the next one.
Going to go over a dozen cherry picked examples
Example 1 - Few resistances
Example 2 - Much resistance
Example 3 - The generational trade
Example 4 - A long story
Let's zoom in I can't see anything
Let's clean a little
And the conclusion
How old were these resistances exactly?
Example 5 - The round number
Investing is not "simple"
Educators with their laptops on their beach say:
- Don't overcomplicate
- Focus high winrate
- Do indicators and only that
- You can trade anything just the same, compost or rates, PA or TA is what matters
- 2 schools: Full naked chart or full with indicators and 26 screens
- You can spend 30 minutes a day on a laptop on the beach
- Have very few rules and stick to that
- Elliott Waves are magical and always work
From this we can derive (and I can confirm true from my experience):
- Overcomplicate! You won't compete with a 3 year old fischer price business plan.
- Focus on low winrate, do NOT try to win very often (confirmed by George Soros, PTJ, WB, etc)
- Avoid indicators, do everything else. Note: Moving averages that everyone looks at matter
- You CANNOT trade anything just the same. Stupid claim. Makes my ears & eyes cry
- Don't have a chart loaded with crap and don't take a trade from a "naked chart" (check res etc 1rst)
- You can spend 12 hours a day with no holiday, from your office. Absolutely ridiculous "beach laptop"
- Have many rules and change them when necessary: If you break them for no reason, because "muh feelings", then you do not need to "stick to your rules", you need to quit. Because you suck
- Elliott Waves are stupid and never work. Perfect example of a guy creating a system that does not work and then changing it over and over and over, it's like with scientists in denial: "If the theory (EW overall) does not fit the data (EW rules) then change the data",
Interlude - About round numbers
Tech company Ilika (IKA) in a presentation where they talk about their solid-state battery tech plans (inclusing looking at prod costs etc) back in Dec 2019, they had a list of risks (Actually the investing bank Berenberg Bank wrote this for them I think, "normal people" didn't do this themselves, bank analysts did):
Cost Risk #1 - Cobalt price increase is a major risk
The presentation is online it is easy to find. Just type "Ilika Solid-state battery technology" and probably that's enough to find it. I really like it because you see how businesses conduct their business.
So what happened to them?
The hedgers buy low and sell high. The (profitable) speculators buy high and sell low, but they are not stupid, they avoid selling right on a multi-decade turning point (support).
Example 6 - A stock
Example 7 - Reaches Target but without you
Example 8 - Falls like a rock
Zooming in to check something
Example 9 - Because hindsight works so well
Example 10 - Ugliness attracts ugliness
Example final - Something clean and pretty
When you are actually "overcomplicating" your trading it's when you check every support for the last 10 years and draw them all.
In this example after several years this "no resistance" area continues to show no resistance and the old res do provide resistance so...
