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Winter

No One Should Be Surprised That Energy Prices Are ExplodingMark Fisher was a presence in the natural gas futures arena in the days before electronic trading, racking up profits that made him very wealthy. On Wednesday, September 29, Mr. Fisher told CNBC that he does not see the November natural gas futures contract coming off the board below the October contract, making the $5.50 to $5.80 level a bottom. He warned that an early cold winter could take the price to $12 as consumers in the US follow European and Japanese consumers, “freaking out” about the supply situation in the natural gas arena. When it comes to crude oil, Mark Fisher said that NYMEX crude oil demand remains robust, and the weather is cold, the price could move from $75 to over $100 per barrel level. He went on to say that “people have been spoiled by low energy prices.” They could be in for a shocking surprise. Meanwhile, no one should be shocked as the seeds for a bull market in the energy sector were planted on January 20, 2021. It took decades to achieve energy independence in the US It took months to surrender it to OPEC+ Green is the future; fossil fuels are the present Crude oil is trending towards the triple digits Natural gas is a wild beast It took decades to achieve energy independence in the US For those of us old enough to remember the gasoline lines in the 1970s and the odd and even plate days where you could only fill your tank on certain days, that period marked the beginning of the US’s quest for energy independence. Over the past half-century, the country made great strides. US ingenuity and technology allowed the nation to process corn into biofuel. The government mandates that support energy and agriculture reduces Middle Eastern crude oil imports. In the late 1970s, many young people headed for Alaska for high-paying jobs to extract petroleum from the earth’s crust and construct pipelines that carried the energy commodity to the lower forty-eight states. Over the recent years, the US not only achieved energy independence but became a leading energy exporter. Technological advances in fracking and drilling increased output while lowering production costs. Discoveries of quadrillions of cubic feet of natural gas in the Marcellus and Utica shale regions increased reserves. Since necessity is the mother of invention, technology allowed for processing natural gas into liquid form to travel beyond the pipeline network. Today, LNG moves from the US via ocean vessels to regions worldwide where the price is substantially higher. In March 2020, the US became the world’s leading crude oil producer with output of 13.1 million barrels per day, surpassing Russia and Saudi Arabia and pushing OPEC, the international oil cartel, into an abyss. Pricing power was in the hands of US producers with the ability to turn on production when prices rose and turn it off and turn to imports when it fell. It took decades, but the US achieved the goal. It took months to surrender it to OPEC+ On the campaign trail in 2020, President Biden pledged to address climate change by enforcing an energy policy that would favor alternative energy sources. Calling climate change an existential threat to humanity was a critical focus of the Democrat’s platform. On his first day in the Oval Office, the new President issued an executive order canceling the Keystone XL pipeline project that carried petroleum from the Canadian oil sands in Alberta to Steele City, Nebraska, and beyond to the NYMEX crude oil delivery hub in Cushing, Oklahoma. In May, amid rising energy demand, the administration banned fracking and drilling for oil and gas in Alaska. By August, the administration asked OPEC and Russia to increase production from current levels. The cartel summarily rejected the request. In March 2020, the US was an energy powerhouse. In September 2021, it surrendered control to other worldwide producers. After suffering under the weight of shale oil and output over the past years, OPEC+ is now positioned to squeeze higher prices from US and other consumers. It took less than one year and one-half for the balance of power to shift. Last week, US generals and military leaders told Congress the US lost the twenty-year war in Afghanistan. It took less than eighteen months to lose control of energy. Green is the future; fossil fuels are the present There is no doubt that alternative energy is the future. It will take decades to fund and build wind, solar, nuclear, and other alternative energy sources to the point where fossil fuels are obsolete. Crude oil and natural gas may eventually go the way of whale oil. However, most cars in the US and worldwide continue to run on fossil fuels, which is not changing any time soon. There are roughly 250 million vehicles in the US. The number has been stable over the past years. According to the US Energy Information Administration, 78% of the vehicles sold in the US will continue to run on gasoline twenty-five years from now. Crude oil and natural gas continue to power the world. Fossil fuels are essential for industry and individuals. Increased regulations and policies to curb output will only serve to push prices higher, as we have seen over the past months. Moreover, no rational company is going to invest in US hydrocarbon production given the regulatory environment. OPEC and Russia are in the driver’s seat with their hands on the pricing wheel. Anyone shocked by the price action in crude oil and natural gas futures markets likely thought that political promises to address climate change would never occur. This time, they were dead wrong. Crude oil is trending towards the triple digits US production put the former President in a position to ask OPEC+ to cut production when the price of crude oil fell like a stone at the beginning of the 2020 global pandemic. OPEC and Russia reduced output by an unprecedented 7.7 million barrels per day. NYMEX crude oil fell to a record low at negative $40.32 per barrel briefly before turning higher. The monthly chart of nearby NYMEX crude oil futures highlights the explosive move from negative $40.32 in April 2020 to the most recent high at $76.98 in early July 2021. After correcting, crude oil has been moving towards a test of the recent high, trading to $76.67 per barrel last week and closing near the $76 level. The recent high was marginally above the peak from 2018 at $76.90, a technical gateway to the next resistance level from 2014 at over $100 per barrel. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures are the pricing benchmark for around one-third of the world’s petroleum producers and consumers. The other two-thirds, including the Middle East, use the Brent futures benchmark. The chart of nearby Brent crude oil futures shows the price reached the lowest price of this century at $16 per barrel in April 2020. Last week, it probed above $80 for the first time since October 2018. Technical resistance stands at the 2018 $86.74 high, a gateway to a triple-digit price for Brent crude oil. OPEC+ would rather sell one barrel of crude oil at $100 than two at $40 per gallon. It would be comical if it weren’t tragically ironic that when the US administration asked the cartel to cut production, it rejected a request to increase output by the next administration after cooperating with the previous administration’s request for a production cut. Natural gas is a wild beast Crude oil has rallied substantially since April 2020 and was sitting at the highest price since 2018 at the end of last week. Natural gas, the other energy commodity the US had dominated, has gone ballistic on the upside. In June 2020, natural gas fell to its lowest price in a quarter of a century when it traded at $1.432 per MMBtu. At the low, the ultimate value investor put $10 billion into the natural gas market. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought the transmission and pipeline assets from Dominion Energy for $6 billion in assumed debt and $4 billion in cash. The deal was announced in early July 2020. Mr. Buffett bought the low. The monthly chart shows the parabolic rally that has taken natural gas from $1.432 in June 2020 to a high of $6.318 per MMBtu last week. While natural gas pulled back to around the $5.50 level, the price was still nearly quadruple the level when Warren Buffett increased Berkshire’s exposure to all interstate natural gas transmission in the US from 8% to 18%. In an interview on CNBC on Wednesday, September 28, Mark Fisher said that, given the demand situation in Europe and Asia, a cold winter in the US could push natural gas futures as high as $12 per MMBtu, a level not seen since 2005 and 2008. Mark Fisher knows the natural gas market as he was the most successful energy floor trader on the NYMEX exchange before electronic trading. Are you surprised that crude oil and natural gas prices are exploding and are likely to move much higher over the coming months and years? You shouldn’t be; it is just the elected US government fulfilling its promises at the top of the 2020 platform. We expect higher lows and higher highs to continue as US energy policy is the most significant factor for the coming years. OPEC+ is back in control, and the cartel’s mission is to provide its members with the highest price possible while “balancing” supply and demand in the energy market. With the US production declining as it takes a greener path, many will be walking rather than driving on the road to shortages and higher prices. Join us for the next Monday Night Call using the link below. You can also gain early access to these articles by following the other link below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
1
BTC LONG OR SHORT ?Hello friends . Basically, I do not leave much information or analysis about the market. But here I consider it my duty to make an analysis. It is better to be brave in analyzing. If you are careful, most analysts and signal channels are silent. Do you know why? Look at my chart (it could be yours too) 1. We are in a major downturn. (Larger channel) 2. In this descending channel, another descending channel can be seen, of course, with a steeper slope! (Smaller channel) We know that most of the time, descending channels are broken from the ceiling and cause the price to rise! Well the smaller descending channel is still hesitant! If the roof is broken, we can go to break the roof of the larger canal! But if it wants to, the sales pressure will increase and the smaller channel will become invalid! We are going for a bigger descending canal floor! That means we can see bitcoins, 38 k, and then 22 k, respectively. (Range) So maybe now you understand why most top analysts are silent here? Most are waiting for the wave market to start to ride the wave and then say we are professional analysts! Note: Bad news comes in the resistance! Good news on sponsorships! This coordination is not accidental! :)
by GODsPLAN777
4
BTC Winter Soldier Edition: Monthly Update.Almost a month since I posted this Winter Soldier Edition (linked at the bottom) I'm going to give you a more specific look at what I believe is going on here long term, including my suspected consolidation zone that I expect to last until mid-to-late 2023. Someone might say "4 cannot trade into the zone of 1 for correct Elliot Wave" and they would generally be correct, with that said it can and absolutely has previously wicked down into these zones and you should be aware that can happen. Will it be a straight path to the consolidation zone? absolutely not. Impulse waves will be required to reset RSI levels and it may take many months to reach this zone but the resistance levels are very clearly marked out and you can inter-day trade these targets if you so wish, just be aware as sentiment turns increasingly negative this will become a much more dangerous prospect. As always, trade however you want to trade, this is just what I'm seeing and what I'm doing in terms of BTC. Last Month's Winter Soldier Edition:
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by UnknownUnicorn1259785
Natural Gas - Long Setup ( Near-term )Price action suggests a winter pop is on the horizon. Target Profit: 8% The time frame for this trade is about a month so I will be using the March contract ( NGH2021 ) Technicals This week Natural Gas initially sold off but traders eventually bid prices back up to form a bullish hammer which now sits just above a previous support level. In addition, the weekly RSI is near the lows and starting to curl up indicating a reversal is on the way. Looking a bit closer at the daily chart, it is clear the downtrend is broken and the MACD is showing momentum is starting to shift. Targets Now that the bullish technicals are confirmed I'll use Fibonacci retracements to find a good sell target, measuring from the top to recent low. Conventionally this should be somewhere between the 0.5 and 0.618 with 0.236 now acting as support. If prices close below this level then it's time to reassess. For now the target is about $2.9ish. Trading is risky. Don't do it. Long QGH2021 +1 @ 2.68
NYMEX:NGH2021Long
by trade-God
6
Could crude oil go negative once more? If you trade crude oil futures, you definitely remember that time - not long ago - when price for oil futures went into negative territory. Well, I think you understand that we are facing a similar situation. To make matters crazier, Libya started producing oil again. The country threw a spanner into the works as OPEC countries are trying to lower production to keep the price as it is. Russia and Saudi Arabia are in consensus that production should be lowered but Libya doesn't want to hear none of that. This has boosted the prospects of continuing normality for Libya's - an OPEC member - oil production but raises questions about oil prices, which are already facing oversupply and anemic demand due to rising coronavirus cases globally and uncertainty ahead of a potentially deadlier winter. "The immediate catalyst for lower prices appears to be market expectation that Libya's production is going to recover back to pre-civil war levels of more than 1m barrels per day in the next few weeks," wrote Edward Bell, senior director of market economics at Dubai-based bank Emirates NBD. A relentless second wave of coronavirus cases across Europe and the U.S. has stopped oil demand recovery in its tracks, but the fresh prospect of increased supply is further raising the stakes for OPEC+, analysts at ANZ bank said. Therefore, can we expect negative pricing as the Northern hemisphere heads into winter? Well, we'll have to wait and see. In the short-term, $36.6 is my target.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
RidetheMacro|Natural Gas Analysis Winter is Coming.📌 Natural Gas Key points Fundamentally, the weather is not expected to be a big help this week, but traders are likely to be more interested in liquefied natural gas anyway. At this time, the demand picture is unclear, which could be bearish for the November futures contract, but at some time in the near future, the outlook for increased demand could provide the support for the December futures contract. “While the weather picture isn’t great for bulls, contracts beyond November are at a growing risk for a snap back higher,” Bespoke said. “It’s just a matter of when the market decides to let the November contract completely disconnect from the rest of the curve, the timing of which is difficult to pinpoint. But Can Expect the targets of 3.0xx-3.5xx 🎯. Until The Next time. RideTheMacro
NLong
by Ridethemacro
Natural Gas - Winter ContractsWinter contracts for Natural Gas are already trading near the pivotal $3.00 level. If Winter this year turns out to be average prices will likely sell off towards $2.50 (the 200 Day EMA). However, if production continues to fall and Winter is cold enough, prices can break above $3.00 and complete the parabolic move that is forming. If the latter happens, I see prices for December(Z) contracts topping out around $3.10 - $3.30 February(F) I see topping out around $3.40 - $3.60 I'm looking for a buying opportunity on the December contract and praying for a cold November to sell it in.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ryan-snk
WALL STREET (DJI)- VIRAL WINTER IS UPON US! 😨I issue a stern warning to permabulls who are on DJI! Your time is over. The chart shows possible further break down of price. For probably the first time in history markets are suffering supply-demand shock. That means most things that are manufactured will be in short supply and low demand. This is due to: 1. lockdowns of consumers across the whole world, 2. restricted transportation, 3. serious interruption of supply chains, The economic impact is severe. Travel and leisure industries have been hit hard. Airlines are about to go bankrupt, automobiles sales have been damaged, there is significantly lower demand for energy (oil, gas), medical equipment and supplies for hospitals have been affected. Food supplies are running low. The COVID-19 is has effected a VIRAL WINTER upon the whole planet. This is analogous to a 'nuclear winter' (without radiation fallout of course). The world is 'freezing up'. It will take a long time to unfreeze. Economies of many countries are being severely damaged. The Federal Reserve in the USA and umpteen central banks have coordinated to make monetary and fiscal interventions; throwing trillions of dollars at 'the viral effects'. This will not unfreeze the supply-demand conundrum. It simply cannot. How? Because the problem relies on real people and movement of goods, services and international trade. The USA-China trade deal is basically on hold. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
1
GASIFICATIONThe price of natural gas is going up BOTH in the short term and in the long term. These are the reasons: 1. The price of gas is moving in a range channel. 2 days ago, its bottom was reached and the price started going up again. 2. The current price of gas is one of the lowest EVER. This is a sign that it can rise A LOT in the long term (a few months). 3. Weather affects the price of gas. The explanation is that winter is coming and many people use gas for heating in the US, Europe, and Asia that are the biggest consumers. A higher demand means a higher price. 4. History shows that the price of natural gas rises almost every year and is the highest between November and February. Currently, it is among the lowest, which means that it will rise for sure and in a few months it can increase with 100% or even more. Follow me for more ideas with low risk and high profits. I do not publish very often, but when I do it, you can be sure that my ideas are the best and most secure because they are based on a lot of research and facts. To secure your huge profits, move your stop loss firstly to breakeven and then above it.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by YoungMoneyBillionaires
Simple Bitcoin Ultimate Forecast into 2020Capitulation is basically when Miners stop mining and sell some of their bitcoins to keep operations going. However Capitulation is more likely to occur at the end of every annual year now due to regulation and taxes. It is easier to calculate loss/profit by shutting or slowing the network down and washing your hands so to speak. Power consumption costs are higher during the winter time as well. So with that said the ultimate guide and advice I am giving myself is to play it short, wait for capitulation cycle to open and and buy all in as the capitulation cycle is closing. This chart is an emulation scenario of the next "possible" 50% drop ***I am not a FINRA registered agent or broker (As of Yet) and this is not financial advice, Please always do your own research, As Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset.***
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ILL_Midas
6
Natural Gas Down Trend - Scalp with DGAZNatural gas is setting up a a short term trend down before draw down season begins. I am currently owning shares of DGAZ at the price point of $107 and I will be waiting for $120-$130 before Thursday to sell out of my position. Currently, Dgaz is sitting at ~$112. Natural gas is trending down until draw down season fully comes into effect. I expect the price of NG to increase during the overnight/ morning futures before this Thursday when the bullish report comes out. After the report, NG should go up 2-8%, then continue the downtrend shortly after depending on how bullish the report is given the recent cold weather. Natural gas is waiting for draw down season / a new cold front before it will decide to move up with another big move. Keep your eyes on UGAZ if natural gas gets down below the $2.50 per bpu range before large storage deficits start to take place.
NYMEX:NG1!
by RayleWoodInvestments
Natural Gas Bottoming PatternLike what I see here on Natural Gas. A nice downtrend with then a bottoming pattern at a support/flip zone. You can call it an inverse head and shoulders or triple bottom, but what it shows us is that lower highs are now turning into higher lows. A trend shift. We have had a nice break of the flip zone or neckline marked in blue. Target is 2.50-55 zone. On a fundamental note, Natural Gas does of course show some seasonality. Winter time is when Natural Gas tends to go higher. I believe the world is getting more colder with winters lingering longer than before. We saw this when it came time to planting crops in the East. Winter lingered longer. Perhaps we are seeing this rush of cold weather approaching earlier than before.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by Uncharted-FX
2