BTC Dominance Topping Out, Going to All Time LowsBTC Dominance appears to be in a potential 7 year flat pattern. This coincides with the end of 7 year bear supercycle on alt/USD and alt/BTC pairs. The end of the flat pattern is evidenced by wave-c relating to wave-a by 61.8% in price and relating to waves (a+b)/2 in time (yellow boxes). The false break out from the orange trendline, as well as the wisemen on monthly, weekly, daily, etc charts, and the bearish momentum divergences, are all further evidence that dominance has topped.
From here, it looks like BTC dominance is going to retest the lows, and considering the likelihood of the end of a 7 year bear supercycle on alts, and the beginning of a new alt season, BTC's dominance could fall to as low as 12%.
Fundamentally, little has changed about BTC over the years. While some activity can be moved to layer 2s, the main BTC blockchain is still slow and inefficient, with only 7 TPS most people will not be able to afford to transact on Bitcoin. This will make retail traders and economic activity move to layer 2s and other chains.
One chain which will capture a large share of economic activity from Bitcoin is TRON. It has already captured the largest share of USDT, leading to high TRX burn rates. As Bitcoin's fees begin to skyrocket again following skyrocketing Bitcoin network activity, more of Bitcoin's activity will move to wrapped BTC on chains like TRON which are fast, extremely liquid, low fees, and accepted in most places.
While this will allow everybody to afford to transact with Bitcoin, it will also cannibalize Bitcoin's dominance. Chains that are similar to TRON which can capture a large share of Bitcoin's economic activity by acting as Bitcoin's layer 2, and in doing so are burning their native token for fees, are going to see their circulating supplies drop very quickly because of money earned and burned from fees, and their prices increase much faster than BTC.
It would not surprise me to one day see BTC completely lose it's dominance as the largest crypto to coins which have better fundamentals, especially where they have very high fee revenue and burn rates like TRX, and are significantly faster, more scalable, and turing complete. Either way, I don't think we will ever see BTC's dominance this high again, especially as regulations in the US and around the world begin to favor BTC less and create a fair playing field with other cryptocurrencies.
Wiseman
eHEX Perfect Fibonacci Pattern, Potential 10,000x Gains?Wave-B relates to wave-A by 161.8% in time and 61.8% in price, creating a perfect price AND time fibonacci relationship. Internally, Wave-B seems to be forming into some sort of complex correction with a good chance of a bottom here because of the internal relationships between each phase of the complex correction. HEX has also created a weekly wiseman buy signal along with bullish momentum divergences, and with a wider crypto bull market potentially beginning now HEX could start making its way back towards ATHs.
Since this is an extremely volatile and controversial coin just a move back to the ATH would be over 500x gains, and a move similar to wave-A would be over 20,000x gains. It's not recommended to put a large amount into this trade because it is extremely volatile, but even a small amount could eventually become a much larger amount if it gets another wave like wave-A or even just goes back to the ATH, and based on the time/price relations a move like that could be coming soon.
HEX is actually forked into two coins, HEX on Ethereum (eHEX) and HEX on PulseChain (pHEX). I am buying a little bit of both but just know this chart specifically relates to HEX on Ethereum. The process of buying is also not exactly straightforward, you can buy eHEX on MEXC but liquidity is low. The best way is bridging to PulseChain and buying eHEX on PulseX, but you'll need to get some PLS to pay tx fees. You can also buy pHEX on PulseX which may or may not perform better than eHEX.
SP500 UpdateToday put in a Squat Bar (Bill Williams Theory) as well as a Wiseman Div. Not what we want to see. Bulls don't want to relax here, it's not a good spot to take a rest.
If you're in good profits, now may be a time to take a lil off. Or tighten up stops etc.
The sector chart I referenced ( Communication, Discretionary, Energy etc) didn't show in the video, I guess TV doesn't allow other windows to be shown... but it's a StockCharts image showing which Sectors perform at which points in the Business Cycle... And all indications based on that chart show us in a Recession. Time will tell.
As always, good luck, have fun, practice solid risk management.
BTC Macro, and what I'm watching for...It's been a WILD Ride, the past couple years, no doubt. And BTC has been wild, along with everything else going on in the world around us. So here's a look at what's happened since CV-19, and what I'm keeping my eyes on for the near-term.....
A) The Cerveza Plunge. No one needs an introduction to this. Global macro liquidity event. Basically everyone rekt.
B) BTC proceeded to stairstep it's way back to the 10-11k range, and proceeds to consolidate, twice. The first, leads to a break/close > the Highs formed at A) (pre-cv19 plunge). The 2nd sets off the Mewn Mission that takes us to 60k+.
Now onto more current PA......
As we see, BTC continued to stair-step it's way up to, and over 60k.
C) Here we get our first Change of Character on BTC's Weekly Chart/Structure. We put in a LL, the first. And proceed to put in a LH as well. As if this isn't heavy enough, the Peak Week, as well as the LH Peak, are both formed by Bearish Wiseman Candles. And not just ANY Bearish Wiseman....they're Engulfing! Not a subtle move.
I've failed you at proper labeling here at the end...No more Alphabet, so bear with me here.
BTC Dumps 50% to 30k....we consolidate, making this Triple Bottom. Once again, BTC launches itself from this triangle/compression/hvf type formation....and we zoom to 52k or so. This move nearly perfectly fills the "FVG" created on our plunge from 60k..... And the dreaded Bearish Wiseman ENGULFING shows up again......
This is not the Weekly candle Bulls want to see printed. The Bull Line is where I'd want to see buyers step in, if we're to believe this to be Mewn Mission 2.0 taking off.....If we start seeing Daily Closes below that, or worse into the orange box.....care care care.....
20k isn't safe from a visit....PARTICULARLY if the world sees another Liquidity Crisis type Event. Not out of the realm of possibility.
As always, have fun, be safe, and practice proper risk management.
Perfect Bullish Gartley on Daily ETHBTCEthereum is in a perfect bullish Gartley potential reversal zone. A "perfect" Gartley is defined as one that has an AB=CD and a 1.27BC=CD. On top of this we also have the first bullish wiseman signal on the 1D chart and if it were to continue up it would activate the other two signals. There's also the usual bullish divergence and a potential completed triangle pattern (possibly a Wolfe wave?).
On the other hand if this chart were to break down under the low it would be a good idea to stop out and reverse to make back your losses. For now the long-side has great risk/reward, Initial profit objective would be around 0.015 and 2nd target would be around 0.023, if this is a Wolfe wave the target could be as high as 0.034. It will likely be a good idea to get more aggressive on the long side if this breaks above 0.0115
Bitcoin is also looking very bearish so this compliments that set up perfectly and both are extremely good r/r with potential reverse trades if the stops are hit.