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WISH

Wish - Reddit Wished, Wish Completed 🤦-ContextLogic (NASDAQ:WISH), the e-commerce services company that owns the e-commerce platform Wish, went public last December at $24 per share. The market wasn't impressed, however: The stock opened at $22.75, closed at $20.05 on the first day, and is now worth about $8.50. -In its IPO filing, ContextLogic claimed Wish was the "most downloaded global shopping app for each of the last three years," based on Sensor Tower's data, with over 100 million monthly active users (MAUs) in more than 100 countries. It also claimed to differentiate itself from other e-commerce marketplaces with its emphasis on personalized visual browsing instead of traditional searches. -It claims over 70% of its sales now come from personalized browsing instead of text-based searches, and that its users "engage with our app in a similar manner to how they engage with social media; scrolling through image-rich, highly engaging, and interactive content." -Shoppers initially used Wish's app to create wish lists, which were then matched with merchants. Wish expanded its app into a full e-commerce marketplace, which connected sellers to buyers, in 2013. -Today, Wish generates most of its revenue from transaction, advertising, and logistics fees. Its ads promoted products within Wish's marketplace and across external social media platforms, and it fulfills cross-border orders with its own logistics services. -Wish's revenue rose 10% to $1.9 billion in 2019, then grew 34% to $2.5 billion in 2020. Those growth rates were decent, but other e-commerce companies grew at much faster rates throughout the pandemic. -For example, Amazon's (NASDAQ:AMZN) third-party seller services revenue increased 50% to $80.5 billion in 2020. Shopify's (NYSE:SHOP) sales surged 86% to $2.9 billion last year, while Etsy's (NASDAQ:ETSY) revenue more than doubled to $1.7 billion. Wish's revenue jumped 75% year-over-year to $772 million in the first quarter of 2021, but it faced an easy comparison to the pandemic's disruption of its business a year ago. For the full year, analysts expect its revenue to to grow just 24% to $3.2 billion. Problem with Wish: -Wish is still growing, but it has three glaring weaknesses. First, most of its half-million merchants are located in China, despite its ongoing efforts to add more American, Latin American, and European sellers to the mix. -Wish's heavy dependence on Chinese sellers has sparked constant complaints about counterfeit goods and long wait times for orders and returns. It also exposes it to higher tariffs and the unresolved trade war. -Second, Wish relies on discounts and flash sales to attract shoppers, and shoulders a lot of its cross-border expenses with its own logistics services. As a result, it remains deeply unprofitable. -Wish's net loss narrowed from $208 million in 2018 to $129 million in 2019, but widened to $745 million in 2020 as its operating expenses soared 39% to $2.2 billion throughout the pandemic. Its adjusted EBITDA loss widened from $127 million to $217 million. -In the first quarter of 2021, Wish's net loss nearly doubled year-over-year to $128 million, while its adjusted EBITDA loss widened from $51 million to $79 million. Analysts expect it to remain unprofitable for the foreseeable future. -Wish seemingly wants to replicate Pinduoduo's (NASDAQ:PDD) discount business model on a global scale. But Wish is growing at a much slower rate than the Chinese e-commerce giant, and its heavy dependence on sluggish cross-border sales should limit its total addressable market. -Wish's stock might seem cheap at 1.7 times this year's sales, but it's trading at about a third of its IPO value because it's deeply unprofitable, its revenue growth is decelerating, and its MAUs are spread too thinly across the world to make it a household name like Amazon or Shopify.
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by caldooninvestment
25
Probability theory: Independence, Psychology: Regret theorySocial media provides access to quality content analyses, but you see rookie traders who make good money, losing it all in one trade! In the past few days, I predicted 4 potential stocks to be candidates for the next pump and one call option with decent gains. WISH, VLDR, QS, and OCGN, made double-digit returns, and the AAPL call option made a +100% gain. A minority of my followers invested in these ideas and won big. Those who are chasing a higher level of adrenalin bought options on some of these ideas! Now I see this phenomenon creating a bigger problem for the majority of my followers. The famous sense of FOMO(Feeling Of Missing Out). This Feeling Of Missing Out could become a dangerous situation! How? let me explain it from a mathematical point of view: Probability theory: Independence Independence is a fundamental notion in probability theory, as in statistics and the theory of stochastic processes. Two events are independent, statistically independent, or stochastically independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of occurrence of the other (equivalently, does not affect the odds). Similarly, two random variables are independent if the realization of one does not affect the probability distribution of the other. When dealing with collections of more than two events, a weak and a strong notion of independence needs to be distinguished. The events are called pairwise independent if any two events in the collection are independent of each other while saying that the events are mutually independent (or collectively independent) intuitively means that each event is independent of any combination of other events in the collection. A similar notion exists for collections of random variables. The name "mutual independence" (same as "collective independence") seems the outcome of a pedagogical choice, merely to distinguish the stronger notion from "pairwise independence" which is a weaker notion. In the advanced literature of probability theory, statistics, and stochastic processes, the stronger notion is simply named independence with no modifier. It is stronger since independence implies pairwise independence, but not the other way around. A simple Example: Rolling dice: The event of getting a 6 the first time a die is rolled and the event of getting a 6 the second time is independent. By contrast, the event of getting a 6 the first time a die is rolled and the event that the sum of the numbers seen on the first and second trial is 8 are not independent. Psychology: What Is Regret Theory? Regret theory states that people anticipate regret if they make the wrong choice, and they consider this anticipation when making decisions. Fear of regret can play a significant role in dissuading someone from taking action or motivating a person to take action. Regret theory can impact an investor's rational behavior, impairing their ability to make investment decisions that would benefit them as opposed to harming them. Regret theory refers to human behavior regarding the fear of regret, which stems from people anticipating regret if they make the wrong choice. This fear can affect a person's rational behavior, impairing their ability to make decisions that would benefit them as opposed to those that would harm them. Regret theory impacts investors because it can either cause them to be unnecessarily risk-averse or it can motivate them to take risks they shouldn't take. During extended bull markets, regret theory causes some investors to continue to invest heavily, ignoring signs of an impending crash. By automating the investment process, investors can reduce their fear of regret from making incorrect investment decisions. Conclusion: No matter how you trade or who you follow, the odds of success in any trade are independent..! It means even though we had 5 successful trades in a row, the next one has a 50% chance of being a failure! What saves us is Risk Management, and having a stop loss which works as emergency exits in the building! Do not let FOMO overrule your trading strategies Kenny Rogers: You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away and know when to run. Moshkelgosha Reference: 1- en.wikipedia.org(probability_theory) 2- www.investopedia.com
WEducation
by Moshkelgosha
10
WISH Long Continuation from my post on June 7th. Trimming time for longs here IMO. Could make a move back down to $11-$12 as this left little in terms of support intraday (lol). Watch the flow and volume once a little shakeout and subsequent consolidation afterwards. I could be dead wrong on a re-entry price here...but I have nothing else to go off of today was a straight line. Still unfilled gaps above $18 and $22. Good luck and as always utilize excellent risk management. And remember, if you can't sit in the trade for a .20-.30c move then YOU ARE TRADING TOO BIG. Scale down until you have actual edge. Always learn as much as you can about all of the different types of players in markets and make that knowledge work for you and YOUR trading system. As one of my trading idols said "Don't let anyone tell you that your strategy doesn't work, if you make money with it that's a big deal.
WLong
by Todoubled23
WISHWISH is bouncing from the lows, after Earnings . "Buy the dip" mood. Perfect day to jump in if you are planning to. CCI , RSI and Slow Stoch are coming out of oversold area. Volume and volarility are good. 1st Target price : 28 2nd: 30-32 area Save and invest LazyBull DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor a CPA. These videos are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
WLong
by LazyBull5
Wishes do come true #stocksAfter my buy call (reversal trade) on January 11 WISH has exploded higher and is now sitting at the top end of its IPO range. Given its success over the past 3 days I think its prudent to know when and where to at least take partial profits. If this breakout past IPO highs holds that would be fantastic but we have to see how the stock closes today. The level I am watching now is the low of the day at 23.78. If wish can stay above there then I will keep a full position. Below there I will trim 25-50% of the position and continue to hold.
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by IngenuityTrading
12