More work to do for this horse Workhorse Group
Short Term
We look to Sell at 3.19 (stop at 3.42)
A shooting star has been posted as prices reject the higher levels. Previous resistance located at 3.14. The medium term bias remains bearish. Upward pressure has continued and we are assessed as being in the corrective leg before the next selloff.
Our profit targets will be 2.67 and 2.45
Resistance: 3.20 / 5.30 / 7.50
Support: 2.65 / 2.20 / 2.00
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WKHS
Workhorse #WKHS support & resistanceIn no way, shape or form am I an expert in charts but I like to look and learn from them.
Based on trading since June-July 2020, following seems to be key resistance and support for our horse.
$4.7 to $5.48 (currently we are in that trading zone)
$6 to $7.25 is where we traded from late Sept till Nov 2021
From early April till May 2021 there is a narrower area of resistance/support $11.66 to $13.36
Our major areas of support/resistance where you can see the heaviest volume is from $13.90 to $17.69 (this is where myself started buying WKHS last year).
We have wandered in this price range at least 3 times over the last 2 years; July till Sept 2020, Feb till March, followed by June till July 2021.
Last area is from $22.4 till $30.44.
Gap plays to watch
$7.25 to $11.66
$17.6 to $22.4
$30.44 to ATH of $42.89
#WKHS
#WKHSto100
WKHSWorkhorse Group Inc., a technology company, engages in design, manufacture, and sale of zero-emission commercial vehicles in the United States. The company offers electric and range-extended medium-duty delivery trucks under the Workhorse brand; and HorseFly Unmanned Aerial System, a custom-designed purpose-built all-electric drone system. It also provides Metron, an air delivery application that tracks the performance of various the vehicles deployed.
The company was formerly known as AMP Holding Inc. and changed its name to Workhorse Group Inc. in April 2015. Workhorse Group Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Loveland, Ohio.
REWARDS
Revenue is forecast to grow 63.95% per year
RISK ANALYSIS
Makes less than USD$1m in revenue ($-852K)
Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years
Volatile share price over the past 3 months
Shareholders have been diluted in the past year
Mar 16
Insider recently bought US$169k worth of stock
On the 14th of March, Stan March bought around 50k shares on-market at roughly US$3.37 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was the only on-market transaction from insiders over the last 12 months.
Mar 08
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 48%
The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has improved.
2022 revenue forecast increased from US$16.0m to US$23.7m.
Forecast losses expected to reduce from -US$0.63 to -US$0.49 per share.
Auto industry in the US expected to see average net income growth of 5.7% next year.
Consensus price target down from US$7.58 to US$6.75.
Share price rose 16% to US$3.63 over the past week.
Story of Bubbles!
George Soros:
Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception.
I started my article with George Soros's quote and will continue with his great wisdom about bubbles!
I think he was the one who benefitted from stock market bubbles the most! and this happened because of his approach to identifying and trading these bubbles!
George Soros:
“When I see a bubble forming, I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire,”
Most people rushed into buying RIVN or LCID because they think this could be the next Tesla, and they did not want to miss this opportunity!
This story is very similar to Workhorse's story in the past 3 years!
I published 14 articles about workhorse between September 8th, 2020, and May 6th, 2021.
7 Bullish articles when the price was between 19.78-28.5, and target price of 40-42!
WKHS reached 42.96 and closed at 41.32 on Feb 4th, 2021, priced made a top formation, and on Feb 11, 2021, I published a Short analysis when the price was 37.21.
My first target price for WKHS short was 20-21 and then modified it to 10-11 and after that 5-4 in my last analysis!
WHKS reached 4.92 and closed at 5.01 after 6 months!
I wrote about this practical example because I want to mention:
1- The Bubble story repeats based on the same or different misconception that seems real!
2- The price Pattern moves Exponentially in both directions, either the inflation phase or the deflation phase!
3-Less experienced investors think prices will always be back at the previous highs or lows, which is not the case in many cases!
4- If you can not distinguish the different phases of a bubble, you will lose a big percentage of your trading capital!
5- Average Volume Price is the best tool to monitor speculative bubbles.
6- I strongly recommend reading about Reflexivity
What Is Reflexivity?
Reflexivity in economics is the theory that a feedback loop exists in which investors' perceptions affect economic fundamentals, which in turn changes investor perception.
Conclusion:
Please review Lucid and Rivian plans for the future!
The Lucid goal is to manufacture 400K cars each year! BUT Casa Grande, AZ, is operational with a production capacity to deliver up to 34,000 vehicles per year.
Rivian: The company says its factory in Illinois has the capacity to produce up to 150,000 vehicles per year. About 65,000 of those should be R1T pickup trucks and SUVs, and about 85,000 should be the company's RCV commercial delivery vans, Rivian said in financial filings.
Delivery so far 154 ..!
If you are looking at these numbers, you easily understand that they even don't have any plan to be the next Tesla..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Reference articles:
www.investopedia.com
WKHS: Interesting monthly signal and solid fundamentalsI am interested in $WKHS here, been eyeing it for ages since @timwest brought it up long ago. There's now an active long term uptrend at play here, which may result in a very profitable trading enviroment, if it pans out. You could milk this trend and the key levels in the stock with various methods, using T@M and Key Hidden Levels techniques.
Keep an eye on this one, lately $TSLA and $NKLA have caught everyone's attention, it will certainly drive interest towards $WKHS going forward. They have $GM backing them, and some deals with USPS and UPS up their sleeves. Small company, but certainly interesting.
If the market peaked, we might see it slide back down to support, so keep in mind this bearish scenario. I doubt it will go much lower than that if it does drop.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
$WKHS november update*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management*
Workhorse Group $WKHS is a soon to be tech giant that manufactures and sells high performance trucks. Earlier this year my team road the $WKHS wave from the low 20's to the high 40's. This was back when everyone thought they were a sure pick for a USPS deal that ultimately fell through.
recap: My team entered $WKHS on 11/3/21 at $7.20 per share capturing a nice -7% dip. $WKHS is currently trading at $6.55 per share.
My team has now added a stop-loss at $5.95. We still believe in the long-term success of $WKHS, but if price swings below our stop-loss then my team expect $WKHS to consolidate at lower levels short-term.
$WKHS is expected to announce their third quarter earnings on 11/11/21 but this date is subject to change.
ENTRY: $7.20
TAKE PROFIT 1: $9.50
TAKE PROFIT 2: $16
STOP LOSS: $5.95
If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
WKHS Analyst Price Targets and Shower Squeeze PotentialWorkhorse Group Inc. (WKHS) share float shorted: 36.60%
Yesterday $35.8Mil buy order at $7.17 covered with puts at 5 i think. 5.7K puts.
With this new EV frenzy, my price target for a potential short squeeze is the 12usd resistance.
You can see on the chart other price targets from analysts.
I look forward to read your opinion about it.
$WKHS the holy grail*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management*
Workhorse Group $WKHS is a soon to be tech giant that manufactures and sells high performance trucks. Earlier this year my team road the $WKHS wave from the low 20's to the high 40's. This was back when everyone thought they were a sure pick for a USPS deal that ultimately fell through.
After downtrading from its all-time high of $42.96 $WKHS now sits at just $7.22 per share. Shares are incredibly cheap at this level. If $WKHS was being considered a contender for that USPS deal then its makes sense to think that they can turn things around if the right news gets out there.
My team entered $WKHS today at $7.20 per share capturing a nice -7% dip. This is a long-term hold, our team really loves $WKHS
$WKHS is expected to announce their third quarter earnings on 11/11/21 but this date is subject to change.
ENTRY: $7.20
TAKE PROFIT 1: $9.50
TAKE PROFIT 2: $16
If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
Psychological Roots of Failure in TradingI write this article to shine a light on the importance of the learning process and increasing your knowledge in trading.
Unfortunately, many new traders start trading during the bull cycle without knowing the basics of the market, and the result is almost always the same.
They do not know Bullish trends will not last forever, and this coin has another side!
I remember when I published my RIOT analysis on Nov 5th, 2020, the price was 3.81 USD/share and my target was 55 USD/share!
I relieved many comments that is a scam or some others made fun of me!
RIOT skyrocketed to 79.50 and then I published my first short analysis on Feb 18, 2021, this time everyone oppose me that it is a buying opportunity at 62 USD/share!
I experienced the same situation over and over again:
NASDAQ:WKHS
NASDAQ:TLRY
NYSE:SPCE
Now for those who like to know the underlying cause of Boom-Bust cycles in the market, I would like to explain more:
Soros’ boom-bust cycle, explains the three phases of price change as:
1- The “far-from-equilibrium” upswing,
2-The phase transition turning point, and
3--The downswing and return to “near-equilibrium” conditions.
I believe we can evaluate the participants psychological condition as well:
Charles Darwin wrote in his book The Descent of Man, "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge."
We can consider darwin's quote the basis for the psychological researches by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger.
The Dunning-Kruger effect
The Dunning-Kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe that they are smarter than others and more capable than they are. Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their incompetence. The combination of poor self-awareness and low cognitive ability leads them to overestimate their capabilities.
A Little Knowledge Can Lead to Overconfidence
Another contributing factor is that sometimes a tiny bit of knowledge on a subject can lead people to mistakenly believe that they know all there is to know about it. As the old saying goes, a little bit of knowledge can be a dangerous thing. A person might have the slimmest bit of awareness about a subject, yet thanks to the Dunning-Kruger effect, believe that he or she is an expert.
Other factors that can contribute to the effect include our use of analytical or mental shortcuts that allow us to make decisions quickly, and our tendency to seek out patterns even where none exist. Our minds are primed to try to make sense of the disparate array of information we deal with daily. It is perhaps not surprising that we sometimes fail to accurately judge how well we do.
Is There Any Way to Overcome the Dunning-Kruger Effect?
Keep learning and practicing
Instead of assuming you know all, there is to know about a subject, keep digging deeper.
Ask other people how you're doing
Another effective strategy involves asking others for constructive criticism.
Question what you know
Seek out information that challenges your ideas, as you learn more and get feedback, it can be easy to only pay attention to things that confirm what you think you already know. This is an example of another type of psychological bias known as confirmation bias.
Dunning and Kruger suggest that as experience with the subject increases, confidence typically declines to more realistic levels. As people learn more about the topic of interest, they begin to recognize their lack of knowledge and ability. Then as people gain more information and become experts on a topic, their confidence levels begin to improve once again.
Conclusion:
you should keep updating your knowledge about the market and accept that as a never-ending process regardless of your experience.
Best,
Moshkelgosha
Reference Articles:
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
psycnet.apa.org
www.britannica.com
www.verywellmind.com
www.psychologytoday.com
A Non-Random Pattern..!Jim Simons: we should try to trade patterns that happen on a non-random basis..!
Now with higher confidence, we can say Wall Street bets are predictable..!
NYSE:AMC with a 22 billion market cap gained more than 20% in a single day!
Today's price*volume: 9.9billion second to BABA and 10% above Tesla..!
Why this is important? because the last time this phenomenon happened it was the start of a Gamma squeeze..!
I will not surprise to see it ranked first tomorrow!
To learn more about it please read my previous post:
August 23-24, 2021:
Max Pain or Short squeeze?
Is there hidden rationality beyond irrationality?
Short Squeeze or Gamma Squeeze that is the question?
August 20, 2021:
This is called WSB effect..!
In the past few days, I published posts about Wall Street Bets and how they conquered the market!
They are not just a group of "Apes" unlike what many think, there is a master puppeteer and a core behind this phenomenon who know market mechanics top to down, the power of social media, data analysis.
The master puppeteer has learned to survive in life and career with a false identity many years ago from his grandmaster..!
To wrap it up, do not take an opposite position this could last for a while..! Today was the largest gain and trading volume since last "Quadruple Witching" June 18, 2021..!
WKHS Short Squeeze Hello Traders
This week has been brutal for the Longs and a party for the shorts.
Since most of my ideas and publishings are mostly for breakouts and longs .. i have today come up with a YOLO stock.
WKHS has been a swing trade for me before the news of USPS contract came out.
Currently 30 percent of the flot of the stock ( facts check from websites and hedgefund data on the internet ) is on SHORTS.
This might lead the retail traders this way and have another GME or AMC. Aka rediit.
Clean energy has taken a beating for the past few months but this candidate has drone tech in its pipeline and is a good candidate for a short squeeze.
I am in no way advertising or recommending buying this.. that is completely your personal decision, but on the same not the company has potential to get back in the 20-25 dollar range again due to its tech innovations.
I would start with a small position putting a small amount at risk and the technical analysis show a bullish divergence on MACD.
$WKHS Target 23.61 for 56.56% (128% from here)$WKHS Target 23.61 for 56.56% (128% from here)
Or next add at 9.29 (5 Day low)
A break above that trendline would be very bullish. If not the next add is at the 5 day low.
Sorry... I know my charts are getting a little bit more complicated by I promise to put out some tutorials soon...
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On the far right of the chart is my Average (Grey) Current Target (Green), and Next Level to add (Red) Percentage to target is from my average.
ONLY ADD at support levels & FIB levels… labeled
I start every position with .5 - 1% of my account and build from there as needed and as possible.
I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
$PBTS Squeeze$PBTS squeeze inbound, heavily shorted. Check charts and short interest and shares available
Apes, Mafia, who plays better? who has grater chance of success?Sapiens came to dominate the world because it is the only animal that can cooperate flexibly in large numbers. Prehistoric Sapiens was a key cause of the extinction of other human species such as the Neanderthals, along with numerous other megafauna.
Evolution is a change in the characteristics of living things over time. As described by Darwin, evolution occurs by a process called natural selection.
Natural selection is the process through which populations of living organisms adapt and change. ... Through this process of natural selection, favorable traits are transmitted through generations. Natural selection can lead to speciation, where one species gives rise to a new and distinctly different species.
Now my question is:
Can 10 million apes defeat a small number of the elite sapience equipped with AI by behaving like apes?
The best way to answer this question is to learn to play "Mafia"
Mafia, also known as Werewolf, is a social deduction game, created by Dimitry Davidoff in 1986. The game models a conflict between two groups: an informed minority (the Mafiosi or the werewolves), and an uninformed majority (the villagers). At the start of the game, each player is secretly assigned a role affiliated with one of these teams. The game has two alternating phases: first, a night role, during which those with night killing powers may covertly kill other players, and second, a day role, in which surviving players debate the identities of players and vote to eliminate a suspect. The game continues until a faction achieves its win condition; for the village, this usually means eliminating the evil minority, while for the minority this usually means reaching numerical parity with the village and eliminating any rival evil groups.
Night
All players close their eyes. The moderator then instructs all werewolves to open their eyes and acknowledge their accomplices. The werewolves pick a "victim" by silently gesturing to indicate their target and to show unanimity then close their eyes again.
A similar process occurs for other roles with nightly actions. In the case of the seer, the moderator may indicate the target's innocence or guilt by using gestures such as nodding or head shaking.
Werewolves discussing whom to kill during the night
The night may be accompanied by players tapping gently to mask sounds made by gesture.
Day
During the "day" phase, players vote on whom to eliminate
The moderator instructs players to open their eyes and announces who "died" the previous night. Discussion ensues among the living players. At any point, a player may accuse someone of being a werewolf and prompt others to vote to eliminate them. If over half of the players do so, the accused person is eliminated and night begins. Otherwise, the phase continues until elimination occurs.
According to some rules, the role of dead players is revealed; according to others, it is not. In both cases, dead players are not permitted to attempt to influence the remainder of the game.
Because players have more freedom to deliberate, days tend to be longer than nights.
Game theory
Mathematical study
Mafia is a complicated game to model, so most analyses of optimal play have assumed both (a) that there are only townsfolk and Mafiosi and (b) that the townsfolk never have a probability of identifying the Mafia that is better than chance. Early treatment of the game concentrated on simulation, while more recent studies have tried to derive closed-form equilibrium solutions for perfect play.
In 2006, the computer scientists Braverman, Etesami, and Mossel proved that without detectives and with perfect players the randomized strategy is optimal for both citizens and mafia. When there is a large enough number of players to give both groups a similar probability of winning, they showed that the initial number of Mafiosi m needs to be proportional to the square root of the total number of players P, that is With a simulation, they confirmed that 50 Mafiosi would have almost a 50% chance to win among 10,000.
I believe the WSB scheme could be designed based on this game theory!
I have played many Mafia game many times, and whoever who played this game many times know that Mafias has a higher chance of success!
According to a 2021 article:
A single detective changes the qualitative behavior of the game dramatically..!
Play smart..!
Listen to the detective..!
Reference:
en.wikipedia.org(party_game)
www.kqed.org
www.researchgate.net
Electric Vehicle ChargingSome companies involved in the electric vehicle charging sector compared on 90-day graphs. Anywhere to go but up? Vice President of United States toured a facility this week that boasts 15-minute recharge times for EVs. Companies like Tesla and Workhorse need the infrastructure to really become major players. Target is +300% by end of 2021.
WKHS - possible inverted head and shoulders - SPECULATIONNOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Obviously, they are seeing tons of attention from different online communities, Chart explains the technical basis for targets and graphically shows a nice crayon chart. I am NOT trading this as I don't personally see the fundamental benefit with the USPS contract not currently being there. If I was trading this I would look for a good 4hr close above the neckline, then try to buy a retest as close to the neckline as possible, then run a tight trailing stop to take the guessing out of when to exit and let the stop me out in profit. I don't recommend taking a trade solely based on any pattern. People who are in WKHS may want to take some profit if WSB is able to get it over $25 in the short term as it will likely correct soon after.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE