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WM2NS

The Dow DilemmaWe are at a crossroads. As if we have nothing to invest in. Gold is, in absolute terms, highly overpriced. Gold is more than 50% above the 24 year average. And highly diverging... It still is the massive elephant in the room. Yield rates are the small rat in the room. Due to fast rate hikes, the bond market has suffered incalculable losses. Gold (elephant), just like many people, are afraid of rats (and yield rates). Current consensus is that yield rates are to grow forever, pushing dollar in all-time highs. But consensus cannot take us far... Dollar is showing signs of weakness. The rate hike party may not last long... And equities are still problematic. With massive amounts of money printed in the last 3 years, surely the problems are yet to come. In the main title I talked about a dilemma. DJI divided by Money Supply is warning us. But who is listening? Everyone seems to have disappeared. I am walking around with a lantern in my hand, looking for people, just like Diogenes the Cynic did. This is the micro view. Let's see at the macro view. DJI is joking to us. Short-term it shows clear weakness signals. Long-term it shows the most bullish of signals. My opinion? I expect short-term problems in the equity market. But the problems that may come could be smaller than anyone expects. A relentless equity bubble may form, trapping investors who brace for a downwards impact. In the end, things are not as simple as we may think... And all we are left with is a dilemma. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
DJ:DJI
by akikostas
7
S&P500 = PRICING IN THE MONEY SUPPLYIn today's chart, we look at the S&P500 divided by the WM2NS (money supply). The upward trend of the S&P500 has been unstoppable since 2009 and has climbed to new heights since 2013. > However, as soon as you divide the chart with the "MONEY QUANTITY", the unadulterated chart = the reluctant truth is revealed. = Regardless of the rising price of the index, it has not changed in real value / hardly noticeable. = The "stock rally" was accordingly only the pricing in of the rising money supply. We have been in a sideways channel for about 30 years: = this was broken by the "DOT COM BUBBLE" and the "FINANCIAL CRISIS". = in the chart, you can clearly see that the channel serves as support and resistance. Currently, we are on the way to the bottom of the channel = another 18% - Downside. > at this bottom, there is a high probability that we will run again to the other side of the range = 64 % - upside. Looking at the 18% - downside in the S&P500, we would end up at around 3,000 points. > The 3,000 mark not only goes over one with Fibonacci and POI levels, but also represents a strong DEMAND zone on the monthly chart. > Based on this, we can expect a reaction in this area on a further down-sale. Looking at the range, a scenario of further down-sale is more than likely and goes along with the opinion of many. If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would greatly appreciate a review of the idea. Thank you and a successful trading!
SP:SPXShort
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
4
M2SL | Mo Money Mo Problems!Oh boy, many of them problems... Sometimes there are cycles, some cycles are shorter than others. In chart analysis, we are familiar when we analyze trends. Either short term or long term. The economy does not function only in trends. There are cycles. The most common / important of cycles is the yearly one. Unfortunately, cyclic patterns may prove tricky to analyze. But they are very important. Since I haven't taken the time to create TradingView indicators that calculate cycles, I will instead use a spreadsheet. For the following charts, I basically take all historical data of a cyclic chart and export that data. For every week or month, I calculate the average distance from the mean. With that, I try to calculate the "expected distance" from the mean, for each time of the year. Natural Gas prices one might say, are lower during the summer months. So an unusually high price in summer may become explosive during the winter. Today's main subject will be money supply. Since the January's M2SL data hasn't yet updated, I will try to guess how much money supply we can expect the following months. There is a cousin to the M2SL index which is updated weekly, and it is WM2NS. This index however as you can see on the chart above fluctuates from M2SL throughout the year. So, the regular WM2NS price should be adjusted based on it's cycle against M2SL. This curve shows the expected yearly fluctuation of the ratio, compared to the mean, Specific care has to be taken when we calculate the "fundamental cycle duration". Some cycles last 2 months, 3 months, or 6 months. The fundamental cycle of the economy is 3 months which repeats 4 times during the year. While this may prove irrelevant, It is incredibly important in the "cycle spectrum" creation. If we consider a 1M duration of the fundamental cycle, the chart isn't as representative as the 2M one. The Diesel / Gasoline cycle is incredible. This comes to prove that these two are highly correlated. With the same method we can compare gasoline price with crude oil price. For fuel prices, it seems that the end of the year can serve as a good baseline for the outcome of the next year. Absolute and relative are at their minimum in this time of year. Similar charts can be drawn for DJI. While more chaotic (wider error lines), weeks 10 and 44 (March and October-November) appear as the weakest periods of the year. So what M2SL price can we expect in the following days? I am an impatient man, I cannot wait for the results!!! After a substantial drop in money supply, one might fear that further downside is to follow. There are charts that calm such fears. Price has never touched the Quadratic Kernel indicator (a form of historic moving-average), and it may never touch it. When RRPONTTLD increases, money supply decreases (I am oversimplifying because I don't know the exact specifics). Bullish stochastics may signal more upside for money supply. Finally, I will analyze the protagonist chart: Suddenly, the 1.2% increaase doesn't sound that extraordinary... Sometimes, a simplistic analysis like this one above, may prove correct like this one below: Final thought: With inflation higher than expected and money supply about to increase yet again, how high of an inflation can we expect? With commodities bull-flagging against money supply itself, and Bitcoin bull-flagging against the Tech-Bubble, things can get pretty bad for equities... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. I have analyzed several cycles for different kinds of commodities. If you are interested ask me so as to post them.
FRED:WM2NS
by akikostas
9
Gold vs M2The fundamental cheapness of gold is a fairly sideways chart. We are approaching a similar cheapness as was seen in 1999 to 2003 where we saw a ~700% rally until 2012. When we established a top in the channel in 2012, the market bottomed. It appears currently that it's not done selling off and has some room to run down, or is about to establish a sideways bottom soon. Personally, I would anticipate seeing the price EASILY hitting the top of the channel: countries around the world are not net buyers of US treasuries as in the 2008 liquidity crisis and therefore I don't believe that the dollar strength versus gold that took place after 2012 will be so drastic in the coming cycle. I hope you enjoyed this chart and thanks for taking a look. Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets! - your fringe chartist
FX_IDC:XAGUSD
by fringe_chartist
2
BTC vs Money Supply updated 2022 (logarithmic)reviewing from my older chart that tried to make sense of the last the last ATH from Bitcoin against the money supply (money printing) can clearly see it broke the previous support price and is still struggling to get above even with all this 'extra' money floating around many big financial companies are liquid right now, there is plenty of opportunity from the crypto markets as a whole, trillions are waiting, maybe some price manipulation too, trying to get cheaper bitcoins of course!!! KEEP watching this chart, if it goes under the diangoal support line ive added then certainly question your crypto holdings and adjust accordingly as lower prices will be sure to come, if we can stay above that trend line support and get back above the old $20k 2017 ATH then we could see a nice drive up towards new highs ill do a normal version of this (not logarithmic) very soon any questions please ask!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by majorlee
1
Is the Market is a Ponzi? The Printing of Money and Growth8-minute video where I gloss over the big picture stuff relating to the Markets and as they relate to the M2 (WM2NS) Money Stock. This is a High Time Frame analysis of the Market charts like the Dow and SP500 vs the Printing of Money and the increase in Money Supply. Basically, the entire market exists as a function of printing money, organic growth hasn't been around for decades and our current highs are almost entirely because of the increase in Money Supply. The scariest one is the Covid dump and how even though the global economies were in many ways shut down, the market experienced a massive Bull Market. The fact is, that in relation to the Money Supply the Dow, SP500, Bitcoin, everything is pumped by printing money
SP:SPX
by TrendmasterOfficial
1
Easy chart to explain Asset pricesJust a combination of a couple old charts, but I wanted to make clear why assets are rising post 2008. There seems to be a direct correlation and causal relationship in FED ownership of assets as a percentage of M2 and asset prices when adjusted for M2. Lots of other charts seem to imply this by charting other things but this one shows the actual thing side by side. Perhaps the identical slope of the trend is coincidental even though the relationship is direct, it is awfully interesting though. Interpret it as you wish. In teal: M2 adjusted SPX adjusted to overlay the symbol below. In yellow: WALCL as a percentage of M2. Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets :)
SP:SPX
by fringe_chartist
M2 Adjusted Compensation of Employees Notice how everyone's wages were doing fine for TWO DECADES after Volcker was the FED chair? It's not coincidence. He was the most criticized FED chair in history because his policies WORKED for the working class. Fast forward to today, and we have turned the dollar into infinitely dividing pieces of confetti. These clowns at the FED are nothing more than puppets for the 1%. Real wages down 50% from 2000 and 20% from 2020. Hard to say it but I really don't see how this could ever improve unless we stop using the dollar. Now if only there was a currency where the money supply couldn't be expanded with political willpower... Good luck and hedge your bets
FRED:A576RC1
by fringe_chartist
2
Gas just got expensiveIn the chart is the M2 adjusted price of gasoline matched to the current price. It measures the portion of total dollars it would take to purchase a gallon of gasoline. Essentially it's a chart of dollar strength in gasoline terms. Chart up = strong gas, weak dollar. Chart down = weak gas, strong dollar. The white trendline in the center is the longterm linear regression, the center of the logarithmic price distribution (but only back to 1986). To calculate this symbol yourself: RB1! price = 3.798 RB1! / WM2NS price = 0.0001758 3.798 / 0.0001758 = 21604 Now we simply enter RB1! /WM2NS*21604 to get our current price. What the chart does not show is that over the years, public ownership of the dollar supply has gone down. As you pump unwarranted dollars into the economy, you get diminishing returns on real gdp growth and thus a reduction in productivity. No measurements are being made, dollars are only being thrown into the system. More doing, less thinking and measuring. Therefore, people have less overall dollars, relative to the total supply of dollars, to spend on gasoline as they did in previous decades. For example, around the 1970s, the FED could squeeze out about 70 cents in GDP per 1 dollar printed. (Actually they didn't squeeze anything, they just sat on their ass) Fast forward to 2022, these reckless and dogmatic pseudo-scientists are getting around 30 cents per dollar printed. If people are economically half as productive overall, PERHAPS everyday people will only be able to afford about HALF as much stuff and therefore half as much gasoline as when it was just as expensive in the past. Just something to think about, seeing as how regular citizens didn't get much of that money. Those who work the hardest are not worthy of the easy money printed by our glorious church of the FED. Consider how gasoline peaked around 7$ multiple times, in '85, '90, '05, '06. Now imagine if society was half as productive back then, that's basically saying it's 14$ in today's terms if you account for money productivity AND money supply expansion. Probably not the most settling idea. Good luck and hedge your bets.
NYMEX:RB1!
by fringe_chartist
SNP 500 / WM2 just broke the High of 2007I think under the current market (and inflation) conditions, we have to take a lot at assets vs money supply, to see where we're at. In my opinion the SNP just broke the B high and is now on the way for wave 3, don't see any bear market here! Thought we would see some more Resistance from the B high, esp with the news around the FED, but if you look at the 10yr yield trendline (i just posted) i dont think they really will increase yields.
SP:SPXLong
by maxwayne23
SPX - Is it possible the bubble hasn't even begun?What you see here is a ratio of SPX vs. the M2 Money Supply. Many inverse head and shoulders patterns in this chart, which should resolve to the upside. FYI - M1 = coins and currency in circulation + checkable (demand) deposit + traveler's checks. M2 = M1 + savings deposits + money market funds + certificates of deposit + other time deposits. tldr; The FED is likely to continue printing money, creating a massive bubble and ultimately lead us into a crisis sometime this decade. #CancelTheFED
TVC:SPX
by Jigstack
8
Bitcoin all time high's compared to fiat money supplySo i have to give credit to Benjamin Cowen for the heads up on the money supply vs bitcoin chart. You can go find him on youtube for some very good TA analysis, not searched for him on here yet, if u know his username please link it below This chart is to compliment previous published idea to give an understanding of how the extra money being madly printed has an effect on the bitcoin all time highs (ATH) We can clearly see how we have not really broken through yet to claim this cycles top value, in which we could see 6 figures by the end of the year, unless some blackswan event takes place, im about 70% certain were going to come very close if not break out above, its a huge psychological level too. Please give a thumbs up if u like the chart and follow along for more Bitcoin and crypto charts in the future peace up
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by majorlee
Mad money printing from central banks, how will it affect you?Just a quick chart to show all the new money thats being printed by central banks we can see how the stock market is being kept alive by all this extra wealth being pushed into it, keeping it bullish, the only downside is obvious, INFLATION, massive amounts of very dangerous and harmful inflation! Highlighted the 2008 housing market short and also the most recent injection in March of 2021 for all this COVID B; and there is more to come now that President Biden has signed another package to print even more... Its a house of cards and can already see it falling (not the money supply but the system) - are we being pushed into crypto? how does this effect the crypto markets too? I'll do another chart showing the price of bitcoin compared to the extra money and show why we still have much more upside on Bitcoin and the crypto market, will BTC go parabolic like the money supply??? We shall soon see!!! Trade well guys and gals, hold on tight if your just in fiat cause its gunna get very rocky ride down the next set of rapids - the only diversity you need in your life, is in your portfolio!!
FRED:WM2NS
by majorlee