NZDUSD: Intraday and Swing ideas for this weekHi Traders,
This is my view for this week on:
- NZDUSD
I remind you that this is only a forecast based on what current data are.
Therefore the following signal will be activated only if specific rules are strictly respected.
I really hope you liked this content and I would like to know what do you think about this analysis, so please use the comment section below to give me your point of view.
Pit
DISCLAIMER:
Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice.
Wolfe Wave
harmonic pattern on weekly timeframe we are waiting for this harmonic pattern to work .with this pattern in mind we should wait for a possible correction after this upward move near 78.6%fibo level @1.4
if this pattern works and corrective waves starts ,usoil will see a rally
pls see what will be coming up
bulls delayed for aggressive interest rate hikes & China’s COVIDbullish scenario delayed for a while due to aggressive interest rate hikes and China’s COVID-19 curbs and invalidated our upward wave count.
now with ichimikou overlapped tenkensen and kijensen on daily timeframe we understood that bearish move continuation is imminent toward 75$.
Despite the market’s strong performance the past two sessions, crude oil is still poised to post a second consecutive weekly loss. This week’s losses are being fueled by a bleak demand outlook due to a number of aggressive interest rate hikes and China’s COVID-19 curbs.
On the bullish side of the equation, Russian President Vladimir Putin is threatening to halt oil and gas exports to Europe if price caps are imposed and a small cut to OPEC+ oil output plans announced this week also supported prices.
In bearish news that could have an impact on demand, the city of Chengdu is extending a lockdown for most of its more than 21 million residents on Thursday while millions more in other parts of China were told to shun travel during upcoming holidays.
next target is 1.4The widening interest rate differential made the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment, contributing to the weakness in CAD. The Forex pair also gained after money market traders lowered the probability of a 50-basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada in October to 85%.
The main trend is up according to the daily swing and the trend is likely to continue after the Fed raises its benchmark interest rate. On the daily chart, the next two targets are 1.3421 and then 1.4 .
The inflation data wasn’t the only factor weighing on the Canadian Dollar. The currency was also driven lower by a plunge in crude oil prices and weak investor sentiment.
take only sell positions over every corrections until 65$Oil slides on heightened recession worries and a fresh 20-year high for the US dollar.Fears about global recession ramped up after this week's round of rate hikes by central banks.
The threat of a global recession continues to weigh on oil prices, with widespread monetary tightening over the last couple of days fueling fears of a significant hit to growth.Central banks now appear to accept that a recession is the price to pay for getting a grip on inflation, which could weigh on demand next year
Oil prices were also lower as the US Dollar continued to march higher. The US Dollar Index xontinues to rise non stop, pushing past 112 to reach a fresh 20-year high. Dollar-denominated oil prices can be hurt by gains in the greenback's value as it makes the commodity more expensive to purchase by holders of foreign currencies
i only recommend to take short positions over every corrections towards 75$ and then 65 $
next target @103.16as pair dips down below the wolfe wave channel so the next target is 103.16 which is lower overlapped tk and ks of ichimikou .
this target is aligned with structure of our proposed wolfe wave channel .
wave count is seen as corrective wave unfolds after 5 impulsive wave
please see previous analysis
please share your comments
Quick hit n run [risky] shortBearish Wolfe Waves forming inside an ascending wedge.
I would wait for price to break the upper Value Area of the volume profile of the current trading range to confirm short entry .
RSI but looks ready for a little move to the downside. Golden pocket on the fib marked as well.
Will trigger myself a high leverage short taking targets first at the golden pocket, then according to reaction on POC and VAL of the volume profile I will decide wether to book more profits / close position or not. An ideal solution would be a sweep of the low.
Triangle fakeout / fake breakout could add confluence:
Trade safe and use adequate position sizing.
first 111 then 106wave count of the pair is seen on the chart and the pair is trying to complete its 5 impulse wave toward 111 and then retreating toward 106 or even 103
now the pair is making its 5th wave
target are getting from ichimikou overlapped tenkensen and kijensen on 4H and 30 minute
a wolfe wave is also seen that helps us better understand wave structure
please see and share your comments
Russia seaborne crude ban on December5th,1.4 mbpd off the marketRussia side:
As the European Union prepares to implement a ban on Russian seaborne crude in December, the market will have to prepare itself for a loss of 2.4 million bpd, according to the International Energy Agency
The ban on Russian crude imports by sea will take 1.4 million bpd of oil off the market, along with 1 million bpd of petroleum products.
This is in line with the ban on Russian seaborne crude that goes into effect on December 5th, and the embargo on petroleum products, which goes into effect on February 5, 2023.
The oil market attempts to determine whether fears of declining demand–particularly coming out of China’s COVID lockdowns–or tight supply will rule fundamentals. The IEA highlighted decelerating growth in global oil demand in its latest monthly report, but also noted that due to significant gas-to-oil switching, total demand growth was actually only slightly lower.
Iran Side:
Oil prices are also seeing support from the dim prospects for a nuclear deal with Iran that would lift sanctions against Iran and allow its crude back onto the global markets. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Monday said that "the information gap is bigger and bigger" on Iran's recent nuclear activities. Also, the European Union's chief negotiator said Saturday that "in light of Iran's failure to conclude the agreement on the table, we will consult with our international partners on how best to deal with Iran's continued nuclear escalation."
supply outlook is gloomy ,it seems that market have two week to continue its bear move due to strong US dollar and China weak demand but after that due to possible supply disruptions oil rally will initiate
USOIL 1 hour wave count udpate we are in wave 2 of a bigger wave 3 for downward move toward target of 75 $
wave count are seen on the chart and with strong CPI yesterday ,bearish move resumed
Recent data showed China’s economy lost further momentum in August, with factory activity extending declines and export growth slowing.
The world’s second-largest economy narrowly avoided contracting in the second quarter amid widespread COVID-19 lockdowns and weakness in the property market which have dented consumption and factory activity.
Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) officials have put investors on alert for possible recessions in the U.S. and Europe. Energy demand worries weighed on crude prices as Tuesday's stronger-than-expected U.S Aug CPI report may push the Fed to keep aggressively hiking interest rates, which risks sending the economy into recession and reducing energy demand, so as crude oil is a dollar-denominated commodity. A stronger dollar tends to be bearish for crude.
please see DXY Chart as key factor for crude price
xrp target is 0.23xrp is completed its first leg of 5th impulsive downtrend and now it is in correction and sooner or later it will resume downward move toward 0.23
. our wave count is seen on the chart and after wxy correction we have seen bear move resumption.
for better view please see big picture on daily time frame
as requested by @s_hers