WORK
SLACK Possible Reversal Area SoonSlack's stock has been following this descending channel since it's boom in June.
Investors noticed that Slack is a good "corona" stock since people are working from home and therefore need some kind of communication tool. However, Slack is losing the fight from Microsoft's teams, which is simply a better and more developed product.
My play would be that the stock will rise another few percent towards $31, consolidate for a while, and later drop off on the perspective of bad earnings.
If the stock would beat the resistance around $33, a long play might be worthwhile. Watch out for earnings though, since it can go both ways.
$WORK Bullish Descending Megaphone$WORK forming a bullish descending megaphone and is really just whipping between resistance and support bands of this pattern.
Looking for $WORK to hold $25 and push up to $30. One of my favorite trades currently.
Keep the purple circle in mind for first target at $26.50 — that trend-line will be important to break to hit our higher target of $30
BTO 12/18 $30c avg $.88
WORK Potential MoveWORK is in an ascending triangle and is on the verge of a potential breakout. I'm expecting a flat open just above $26 on 11/05, and then a breakout upwards.
$WORK updated analysis. Confluence at $40 post election.EW analysis shows that $work is working on a a wave 3 sub formation (yellow) within a larger wave 3 impulsive structure (white) that started back in march. Its hit the technical levels perfectly. The algos are in play!
On a shorter time frame, the Andrews Pitchfork shows a beautiful bounce off the bottom of the channel, with and 80% chance the price will approach the median of ~$35. A dip is likely to occur here, followed by a continuation to $40 over the next few weeks to complete the wave 3 sub-formation (yellow)
Market volatility around the US election will likely keep the price movement small. Im expecting a large move upwards by mid Nov, as election chaos settles down and markets have a more firm view of what to expect in the future.
The stochastic RSI is oversold, but will likely stay at these levels for another week or two (just like the last time it was in that zone) as the election uncertainty passes.
I expect great things from $WORK in the new year.
ps: this model is invalidated if price falls below $24
Slack break out from 3M downward trend rejectedSlack (WORK) has failed to break out from its downward trend that started in June.
Despite my strong bullish long term view on Slack the outlook for the next few weeks remains not very positiv - support levels at 28.60 / 27.30 / 23.60 could be seen as entry points to accumulate.
WORK - Just Buy40+ in early 2021, if not sooner. Will depend on market conditions of course, but the demand for efficient and optimized at home working platforms will only increase as more companies shift to at-home employment. Benefits have already been realized, no turning back now no matter how hard anyone fights it. Slack is positioned well to be a leader in such an environment. Easy buy. Technicals point up as well, above 32.5 and we will test the supply zone above around 36-40.
$WORK Slack - Overbought, Bearish Options Activity$WORK Slack - Hitting resistance today at $30.50 and beginning to retrace.
Unusual Bearish Options Activity Yesterday -
12k $30.00 strike (ITM) Dec'20 puts traded vs open interest <2k or 6x OI for a total premium outlay of $5M
Near term target: $25.00-$26.00 range by late October
Note: This is NOT investment advice.
WORK STRANGLE WIN WIN$WORK got destroyed by Zoom? will it get pumped by the Nasdaq? Who knows.
What I know is that is sitting and coiling on the lower channel structure...big move can happen soon.
So, LET'S PLAY BOTH WAYS.. WIN WIN situations that's what I like
PT1:30 bull
PT2:23.4 bear
$ZM $SLACK
WORK aka Slack unfortunate downward channelWORK aka Slack was a very promising trade with the work from home (WFH) explosion driving stocks like ZOOM, PYPL, SQ, FB, AAPL, MSFT and CRM to name a few.
Unfortunately WORK's performance was lukewarm, and quarterly results proved the same. With services like Zoom Video, Facebook Workplace, Microsoft Teams, Salesforce and more providing a lot of tools that compete in one way or another with Slack's tools, the business is growing steadily but is failing to see the hypergrowth curve driving market gains for its peers.
The downward channel should be observed and any break out of it to the upside with volume would have a greater risk-reward trade than trying to play a $4 trade. Though, with a $1000 investment at a price of $26, one has the opportunity to scalp up to $152 with a sale near or at $30. We don't recommend any trades for those with a low appetite for risk, and we ALWAYS recommend a stop-loss, or the opportunity to cost average if you are longer-term on the stock.
*Note: Risking a downside of anything more than your upside potential is never a good idea. With a chance at 15% upside, one should also assume the risk of 15% downside MAX and take the applicable stop-loss at this level.
The fundamentals of this stock are sound. We'd rate it neutral or HOLD in the short-term, though your money might work for you better in another stock. Alternatively, one could argue that WORK benefits vs other technology stocks having not been "overbought" in recent months. Though, the overall weakness and slow growth make a stronger argument, as well as the general market trend to the downside which Slack's Beta has proved prior (March) to be sensitive to.
If you are in the stock, getting out now or anywhere close to $30 in the short term might prove opportunity to get in at cheaper prices again. However, the long-term potential with this household name makes one want to hold a small position to take advantage of any surprise gains (For example those found regularly in tech stocks such as liquidity events (acquisition) or product releases).
Disclaimer: I am not a professional, nor do I claim to know what I am doing. I chart for my own education and revealing potential trade setups. I am always open to constructive feedback and resources that you can recommend to "up" my game. Thank you!
WORK Analysis $WORK
Bullish Over: 26.46 (Supply Zone Target)
Bearish Under 24.64 (Dynamic Support at 23.05 Target)
Gap Fill: 28.00
No good Risk/Reward Setups yet. High Chance of Consolidation this week burning premiums on both sides.
THE WEEK AHEAD: PLAY, ACB, PTON, CHWY, WORK, AEO, GDXJ, QQQ, EWZEARNINGS:
Some decent earnings on tap in terms of options liquidity and implied volatility metrics this coming week. Here they are, ranked by how much the at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price:
PLAY (33/136/35.5%):* Thursday after market close.
ACB (30/205/32.5%): Wednesday (time not specified).
PTON (66/125/32.4%): Thursday after market close.
CHWY (19/112/25.7%): Thursday after market close.
WORK (51/104/25.1%): Tuesday after market close.
AEO (36/108/22.6%): Wednesday before market open.
ORCL (42/47/10.8): Wednesday (time not specified).
Pictured here is an expected move short put in PLAY with a break even at 13.70, 9.5% ROC as a function of notional risk, 88.9% ROC annualized; 4.8% ROC at 50% max/44.5% annualized at 50% max. Look to take profit at 50% max or cover if assigned. Basically, another COVID-19 recovery play (along with airlines, cruise lines, and restaurant chains).
With ACB and AEO being under $20/share, my basic approach would be either short straddle or iron fly, with the latter set up to generate risk one to make one metrics.
Examples:
ACB October 16th 8/9 "skinny short strangle," 2.70 at the mid price.
ACB October 16th 3/8/9/14 "skinny" iron fly, 2.42 credit, 2.58 max loss.
AEO October 16th 13 short straddle, 2.90 at the mid price.
AEO October 16th 8/13/13/18 iron fly, 2.48 credit, 2.52, max loss.
With the remainder, I would generally just sell the 20-25 deltas:
Examples:
PTON October 16th 65/135 short strangle, 8.43 credit at the mid price.
PTON October 16th 65/105/110 Jade Lizard, 6.01 at the mid price (no upside risk, downside break even at 58.99).**
PTON October 16th 2 x 55/2 x 60/125/135 "double double" iron condor, 3.43 at the mid.***
CHWY October 16th 49/90 short strangle, 5.08 at the mid.
CHWY October 16th 45/50/85/90 iron condor, markets showing wide in the off hours, but would look to get at least one-third the width of the wings in credit.
WORK October 16th 24/41 short strangle, 2.52 at the mid.
WORK October 16th 21/24/41/44 iron condor, 1.00 at the mid (but also showing wide in the off hours).
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE OCTOBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING:
TQQQ (49/117/29.0%)
GDXJ (22/59/14.7%)
XOP (16/56/14.3%)
SLV (44/55/14.0%)
GDX (23/47/12.4%)
EWZ (21/48/12.4%)
XLE (27/43/11.6%)
USO (7/44/11.4%)
SMH (26/41/10.3%)
I don't usually play TQQQ because it's leveraged, but thought I'd keep an eye on it if it does a mid-March lather, rinse, repeat.
BROAD MARKET:
QQQ (44/38/10.2%)
IWM (34/37/8.5%)
SPY (26/30/6.3%)
EFA (23/24/6.3%)
IRA DIVIDEND PAYERS:
EWZ (21/48/12.4%)
EWA (27/30/7.7%)
IYR (24/29/6.9%)
SPY (26/30/6.3%)
GLD (31/23/5.3%)
TLT (17/19/4.3%)
HYG (23/16/3.3%)
EMB (13/13/2.7%)
* -- The first number is the implied volatility rank; the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage the next monthly at-the-money short straddle is paying in credit as a function of stock price.
** -- Currently, PTON is showing some horrible skew on the call side, which can be accommodated via ratio, Jade Lizard, or a "double double" iron condor.
*** -- Double the number of contracts on the put side with the short put at half the delta of the short call and the short call vertical aspect at double the width of the put side. Hence the term "double double."
OPENING (MARGIN): WORK OCTOBER 16TH 23/47 SHORT STRANGLE... for a 1.59 credit.
Notes: Earnings announcement volatility contraction play with high 30-day implied at 111.5%. Selling the 16 delta's here. Will take profit at 50% max and/or adjust sides on approaching worthless or side test.
What to do?? $SPY Crashing?? ($QQQ $AAPL $TSLA $MSFT $WORK )Based on the last 2 june drops, we should ideally bounce near $330 if the sell volume gets weaker tomorrow.
Bullish catalyst - round 2 of stim gets approved
However, if we don't bounce, we could have a march like drop and would probably be crashing thru the next two levels. $320 , then $300
What's the best play here?
Open a strangle options play. 1-3 month out, as we are likely to move violently in 1 direction or another in the next few days.
🤖 WORK 9/2-9/4 ER Options Trade Plan 🤖Earnings Report tomorrow on the 3rd of September
LONG
Bullish over 33.15
PT @33.70, @34.75, @35.5 then hard resistance in the 38-39 (ATH) range
SHORT
Failing to hold above 33.70 and we'll pullback
PT @33.20, @32.70, and @31.95-32.15 solid support
$WORK - Falling Wedge OpportunityFor the longest time this stock has been floating at $30 and it simply cannot seem to break that level. However, technicals are shaping up to say otherwise. After analysis on the daily chart, it seems as if there is a falling wedge forming- and in my opinion, now is the perfect time to get in.
I purchased options dated to October to give me a little wiggle-room but feel free to take any risk you would like.
GLTA