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True Dollar Index - Adj. for IMF Currency Reserve Weight (2022)As there appears to be much discourse around the status of the dollar as "the world reserve currency", it seems interesting to me that the standard measure of the dollar's strength is not weighted in this way. Here I am attempting to reconcile the standard dollar index (DXY), which measures the strength of the USD against a basket of other currencies (see below), with the dollar's presence within the IMF's World Currency Reserves (see below). I have chosen to call this the "True Dollar Index" (TDI) To do so, I have first taken the ratio of the Dollar's IMF weight against each currency and multiplied it by the dollar denominated exchange rate. Then I attempt to normalize the value by dividing it by the average of the 9 dollar denominated exchange rates. The equation I used for the 2022 TDI is as follows(*): (USDEUR * (58.81/20.64) + USDJPY * (58.81/5.57) + USDGBP * (58.81/4.78) + USDCNH * (58.81/2.79) + USDCAD * (58.81/2.38) + USDAUD * (58.81/1.81) + USDCHF * (58.81/0.2) + USDSGD * (58.81/1.505) + USDHKD * (58.81/1.505)) / ((USDEUR + USDJPY + USDGBP + USDCNH + USDCAD + USDAUD + USDCHF + USDSGD + USDHKD)/9) (*) This is in standard TradingView equation format and can be directly copy/pasted into the search bar - though values will convert to decimal As the weighting of the IMF World Currency Reserves is shuffled and reported at the end of the year, this should only be taken to be valid as of Q1 2022. For comparison, I have included the DXY in Orange. Note that I have adjusted the DXY by 41.0351, this is the difference in their starting values on Dec 31, 2021. This should allow us to capture deviation from this starting point. I chose this action as opposed to adjusting the existing equation to for simplicity, though one could easily drag the TDI down by subtracting the same amount. I make no claims to the accuracy of this chart as a measure of the strength of the dollar. I am not an economist, and I am happy to hear suggestions on how to improve this model. DXY Geometric Weightings: Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight Currency composition of official IMF foreign exchange reserves: Dollar (USD), 58.81% Euro (EUR), 20.64% Japanese yen (JPY), 5.57% Pound sterling (GBP),4.78% Chinese renminbi, 2.79% Canadian dollar (CAD), 2.38% Australian dollar (AUD), 1.81% Swiss franc (CHF), .2% Other, 3.01%* *To account for this ambiguity, I have opted for a 50/50 split of the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) and the Singapore Dollar (SGD). These are roughly equal in their use as a global payment currency at the time of writing and are the only top payment currencies not already included in the weighting. Sources: en.wikipedia.org data.imf.org
by mdamante
1
How deep is the rabbit hole is & why EU breakup inevitable.- High energy prices make it unprofitable to produce in Europe. - Calls not to use heating for the incomprehensible purposes of greedy neoconservatives from America are fine, but that's until the first frost. - The lack of fertilizer will lead to the degradation of agriculture, which is already on subsidies in many European countries. - The ECB's lax policy will cause them to be late as usual. - My beloved Poland has quarreled with everyone in the European Union except the United States. Oh, I'm sorry, the U.S. is not in the EU. - A few weeks I was talking that Russia could switch to trading energy resources for rubles... last night they did. In six months no one will need the euro? - Technically as you can clearly see we are back in LT trend channel and it is already all those who said we should buy euros have disappeared. Think out of the box and look around. The world is changing, tectonic changes are taking place. Once again, we have already left the world of consumption and are entering the world of starving. Even though I used to say we're leaving... Now we're almost left. Not legal and financial advice; Any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author.
by AlpacaBlack
GLOBAL COVID-19 - Pushing the projection model Just an observation here... I have been posting much about using the MACD Histograms to project the spikes and waves of COVID-19 infections, given the data collated on this platform. So far, it has been pretty uncanny in accuracy. Just coming across the Total COVID-19 Confirmed Infections chart, there appears to be an odd divergence on the MACD histograms.. and this leaves me wondering if we are on the cusp of an unllikely surprise global surge, starting from April 2022. Am really left wondering if I am pushing this projection model too far, or it is telling us something... only time will tell, I suppose.
C
by Auguraltrader
The predicted market crash... Can it get any worse? Yes!The predicted market crash... Can it get any worse? well, yes! •Short since $4731 (closed some of my shorts today)↘️🔻 written on: 19:16 Thursday, February 24th, 2022 Central European Time ( CET ) S&P 500 Index (and the entire market with it) The TA: We broke out of the rising wedge on the 18th of January. We retested the wedge as resistance on January 18th. The target price of the wedge breakout towards the downside was roughly $4111.96, which hit today. The chart has now formed a head and shoulders pattern, which we broke the neckline off today. We will probably retest the neckline. If we can't break that resistance, the Head and Shoulders is confirmed following a 3735 target. We also broke our long term trendline that we had as support since the beginning of the recovery of the 2020 covid crash (I will make a seperate idea on that one). The squeeze momentum indicator, by Lazybear just turned red and we have a bearish monthly MACD cross. •Almost every indicator suggests that we are overvalued in the long term. 94% correlation between the Nasdaq 100 in the 15 years to today, and the 15 years to 2000. The S&P500 shows a 95% correlation. We all know what happened during 2000s, the markets collapsed. shiller PE ratio is currently sitting at 34.27 on the day of writing this (the last time I updated this, it was sitting at 40.14 so it has come down a bit, but we still have a long way to go). The mean is at 16.92 and the median is at 15.87. 34.27/16.88*100≈ 203% 203-100= 103% This means that we are possibly 103% overvalued. •The warren buffet indicator is telling us that we are strongly overvalued. The indicator sits at a 195% Market value to GDP ratio. The exponential trendline suggests that a Market Value to GDP ratio of 120% to be fairly valued. We are 51% higher than the long-term trendline. (this was 71% the last time) What is going on in the world? •Russia vs Ukraine war. This is very bad news and I hope that everyone stays safe. Money is way less important then the lives of innocent people. No one wants war. The Russian index crashed 45%, before rebounding during the trading session. The indexes in Europe also got crushed, just like the s&p500. We recovered the losses in the late trading hours which is very impressive. •The number of Nasdaq stocks that have hit a 52-week low now dwarfs even that of the 2000 dot-com bubble and global financial crisis. It looks like the high multiple, tech stock bubble might have already burst. The s&p500 is just lagging behind and can go much lower then the current valuations. A ton of stocks; large or mid cap, value or growth have been absolutely devastated since I started writing about a crash: •The FED is going to increase its interest rates, because the inflation is getting out of hand. 7.5% is the highest we have seen since the 1980s. We don’t know the ammount and the number of times that they are going to increase the interest rates, but 50 pivot points in march looks realistic to me. When the interest are getting an increase, it works like an anker on the stock market. And because we have so much debt right now, this could lead to even more pain then what we have seen. You don't want a hawkish FED as your opponent. Historically, the inflation has grown slowly, but during this and last year the inflation went through the roof. •Members of congress and people in the government (clearly insiders: looking at you nancy pelosi) are not allowed to own stocks anymore very soon? Correct me if I am wrong on this one. •The Canadian real estate bubble is so big, that even the mother of all crashes can’t fix it. The composite benchmark, (a.k.a. a typical home) was $798,200 in December, up 27.8% from a year before. It is at an all-time high for both price and annual growth. betterdwelling.com Mortgage lenders are about to get destroyd. Just looking at the current market and where rates are going is a recipe for disaster. In the last few years, they had between 2-3x regular refinance volume. Leaving a large pool of borrowers who will not to refinance for at leat 3-5 years. •Mortgage rates have risen almost a full 1% in just the last 2 months, will likely raise another 1% by End Of Year. This will further slow demand. Housing market starting to show signs of cooling. Worst case scenarios is housing values drop even more which will cause cash out refinances to dry up as well. Lenders are starting to lay people off. I have heard some shops are reporting declines. •canadian tv reminding people that bank deposits are ensured. (The Royale Bank of Canada made this advertisement as well). •billionaire investors have a lot of cash ontheir hands. •Michael Burry and a ton of other famous investors predict that the markets will collapse. Warren Buffett has stopped buying new shares. Michael burry has sold his positions •Palantir warns people of a black swan event. •energy crisis in China and Europe. A lot of factory's in China are shutting down or slowing down because they have no power. This only got worse today since Russia attacked Ukraine, the oil prices peaked at $105.74. Every time that the oil prices reached prices above $100, we entered a recession after that. With the current sanctions against Russia, we can expect commodities like gas and oil to rise even further. Which could lead to even more inflation. •reverse repo has never been this high. 1,738.322 billion usd (that is more then a trillion!!!). The Fed's reverse repo facility allows big institutions - mostly big banks and money-market mutual funds - to buy securities from the Fed with an agreement to sell them back to the central bank for a specified price at a specific time. •Jpegs are getting sold for millions of dollars, which looks like the Dutch tulips bubble to me. •Prices have been sky-high in the last months for almost everything, could we be in an everything bubble? •With the old measurements, CPI / Inflation is above 15%, that is just as bad as the top in 1982 (instead of 7.5%). •fibonacci extension tells us that $4875.56 could be the end. (the top is $4818.62, for now. So I my prediction was 1.16% off) •stablecoin Tether has been in trouble for a long time. When tether crashes, everything crashes with it. 80% of BTC’s volume goes through Tether. So when Tether falls, Bitcoin falls and when Bitcoin falls, everything falls with it. •supply chain issues and shortages for almost everything. •Indexes like XRT with 1200% short interests (GME is in this index) •historic records amount of margin: When everyone is using a lot of margin in the markets, things can change very quickly for the worse, because their positions can get liquidated. If people with leveraged long-positions starts to get liquidated, more people start to get liquidated since the price has gone down even more. etc. etc. etc. (until the market has fully crashed). Not only that, retail investors are going to panic sell in such an event. the only thing that needs to happen for a trend reversal is a bad event. Like seriously, since when can retail investors use more then 100x leverage? •We printed a ton of money during the COVID-19 period. When we had the 2020 march crash, the stock market recovered insanely fast, even when the economy was falling. The recovery happened because we printed so much money to support the company's (not because the businesses were performing great). --> •The markets are not based on fundamentals anymore: 1 million+ people dead due to covid? No problem, the market goes up by 30%. Millions of people getting unemployed in the US and the rest of the world? Not a problem, the market goes up by another 30%. Businesses declaring bankruptcy? It didn't matter. we just kept on going up. Almost every business was experiencing massive losses while their stock price was skyrocketing. The money printing led to massive inflation. The supply chain issues made this even worse. We have to pay for our mistakes now. The FED has to force a recession. •Eliott waves suggest that a big crash is going to happen. We are in wave 5 in the long term chart from 2008 until now (and possibly the 100 year chart as well). So the next wave will be a market correction. "The bubble": massive credit to u/BigTechEqualsValud: www.reddit.com "It is clear stocks are in a massive bubble based on their Price to Sale (P/S valuation). Warren Buffett stated that his favorite means of valuing stock was the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio. Below is a chart for this metric. As you can see, the stock market today is as overvalued relative to the economy as it was at the peak of the 1999 Tech Mania. r/wallstreetbets - We are in Tech Bubble 2.0, but it's actually the everything bubble So stocks are overvalued based on the most reliable corporate data point (revenues) and they are also overvalued relative to the economy. Scratch that, they're not overvalued... they're trading at 1999-Tech Bubble insanity levels. This time the FED has created a bubble in everything. A "risk-free rate" of return against which ALL risk assets are valued. Comparing to 1999 tech bubble, 2008 housing market bubble, this will be considered the 2022 Digitial Currency/EV bubble. Look at the 10-20 year charts for any automotive company. It is not pretty. So what makes Rivian and LCID worth more than GM or Toyota? Nothing, since its a bubble. I will rule out Tesla on this one since we know damn well they make money, have an incredible CEO, and produce something tangible unlike these others. Tesla is still overvalued and it will go down with the digital currency/ev crash, but most likely not as hard as other competitors". •Evergrande defaulted on its debt and is now restructuring, we will have to see how that goes. But its still massively in debt and the bonds were never payed according to dr Metzler. DMSA and dr Metzler has a class action lawsuit against Evergrande to file them for bankruptcy. This •Evergrande is still one of the biggest real estate developers, but people seem to forget about this very dangerous problem. Evergrande still has to pay 305 billion USD. They haven't even paid of 1% of their debt. So who are the biggest bagholders of the $305B in bad bonds? --> There are several American and Canadian banks that Evergrande ows money to: First we've got the Royale Bank of Canada which has $46B in evergrande bonds with a Evergrande is not the only Chinese property business with huge amounts of debt. A ton of other Chinese property company’s have defaulted so far. Some of them are now bankrupt. If you were wondering why there was that weird after hours - the stock dropped 64% during AH in one day, but then they fixed the "glitch" and the price went back up. RBC looked worthless and this was just the real view of the bank's financial state when the bonds hit zero. The media told us that the bonds from November 10th were payed, however DMSA says otherwise. Dr . Metzler, the owner of DMSA bought Evergrande bonds because he had a suspicion that the bond payments were not made. So he knew he wouldn’t get his money back. He just wanted to proof his theory. So we could be being lied to (however I’m not a fan of conspiracy theory’s) THE BONDS WERE NOT PAYED!!! Conclusion: the TA looks bad and so does everything going on in the world right now. If this ends up happening it will be a fantastic buying opportunity. The S&p500 could go higher to the 5500s (which won’t happen in my opinion), but a crash is inevitable. It has already correcIf it doesn't happen this year, then it will probably happen in the next 2 years. Its a ticking time bomb. Its just a matter of time when all of this comes together and It *could* happen very, very soon. Do you really want to risk a 10-20% return when the market could fall 50% or more? You can cash out now and buy back 2x the amount of the shares after the crash. And get 2.5x the amount of shares that you could buy now. (this probably doesn’t make a lot of sense anymore. If you bought normal stocks, you are already down like 50% so it doesn’t make a lot of sense to sell with such a big loss). Buy great deals like PayPal or similair stocks that are already down more then 50%
TVC:SPXShort
by Y_Duursma
2
Bitcoin Analysis Update 🆕🆙Before directly analyzing Bitcoin itself, we will deal with the relevant information Things are currently affecting our analysis: 1. The start of the war between Ukraine and Russia could have a devastating effect on the cryptocurrency market for a short time 2. Despite high inflation in the United States and the fact that the Federal Reserve has decided to increase interest rates seven times, we will move towards a shrinking economy, which is not good for BTC at all. And can lead to a prolongation of the btc downtrend. 3. Accounts that have been holding btc for more than a year are increasing, which can be a positive thing for btc. Of course, this will also take some time to have a positive effect on the market --->https://decentrader.com/charts/1y-hodl-wave/ Due to the above interpretations and the current situation of btc, it is predicted that we will not have a very strong upward movement for at least the next 1 to 2 months. ----------- > this is My previous analysis 3 scenarios are possible for btc to continue moving. 1. In the most optimistic case, the uptrend from the range of $ 42,000, which is not very likely due to the situation in the US economy and the situation in Ukraine and Russia mentioned above, and the situation of the SPX chart, is unlikely to occur. ------- > www.tradingview.com 2. The most realistic scenario is to move to the level of $ 33,000, and then start an upward movement, which for such a scenario to occur, the important level of $ 39,000 must be broken again, which is highly possible. 3.Down to $ 29,000, which is a very, very important level that requires breaking the two levels of $ 39,000 and $ 33,000, which is unlikely. But if this scenario happens, it will be very difficult for BTC and the start of the uptrend will start with a long delay (this scenario does not seem very likely due to the increase in whale purchases and increase in long-term accounts, but it should not be forgotten He did) Given the macroeconomic situation and the BTC chart, it still takes time to start a strong BTC rally. But on the other hand, BTC is at a price level that can not be expected to fall too much. But the possibility of BTC going into oscillation mode is very high. Which is good for taders but not very good for holders
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by aria1382
(ICP) Internet computer does not look good(ICP) Internet computer does not look good. early investors are up 500X and selling off their shares. Also there are not many users of ICP but that is growing. It seems that the rules have bee set up to drop the price of this coin over the next few months as they build out infrastructure. The idea of rebuilding the entire internet is a much bigger problem than you might think. Think of it as shipping container level efficiency, but slightly improved, but keep the monopolies. I would wait a few more months for the price to settle down before I consider investing with the intention to buy and hold til 2025.
Long
by JGH_Capital
ADA Coin Partnered With World Mobile To Deliver Telecom Network ADA coin price traded at $1.36 with a gain of 1.06% in the last 24-hour and 14.08% up in the weekly time-frame. Furthermore, ADA bounced back from the support of $1.0. In contrast, the market capitalization stands at $43 billion. Technically, investors can perceive a positive crossover in the EMA, and the price is above the EMA-20. RSI index showcases a flat slope. Moreover, the price movement can be towards the resistance of $1.56 in future trading sessions. Resistance: $1.55 Support: $1.0
BINANCE:ADAUSDLong
by tcr_thecoinrepublic
🇺🇸🌐🇨🇳 - Is the Economy of this Planet 'fit'? 🍀🆙 🆙 🆙 (This is the chart of a random company for purposes of illustration) Well... I don't know guys, not sure if the World economy(economies) are healthy but here are some facts: Fact 1: They have been printing debt... but that doesn't mean we have to pay for it Fact 2: The stock markets are HIGH... but we might look at them next year and say they are now still low Fact 3: Youtube is bombarding all of us with: 'dollar is crashing' - 'markets are crashing' - 'go to the bunker with your food, your gold and your AK-47' videos but that has been the case for the last 10 years now and nothing ever happens Fact 4: The world economy has 2 lungs. The US (freedom through war, rule by dollar) and the Chinese (shut up and make China big China strong China number 1) but the Chinese sneezed and the other lung got pneumonia (covid). Fact 5: Almost everyone is still alive, all economies had major lockdowns, economic activity froze or turned online, the governments printed money, 50 vaccines were created in record time and we are all gradually getting out of this mess. but we expect inflation, which is not coming at a scary size yet (you see, technology beats inflation) Fact 6: ALL the data is GREAT at the moment. Jobs? GREAT! Sales? GREAT! America? GREAT! Australia? GREAT! Ze Germans? SHTABIL! GREAT! Ze Russians? HARASHO NORMALINA! GREAT! ✨The Chinese??? well, read below✨ Fact 7 🚀✨✨✨✨✨: The Chinese are about to announce their GDP (Gross domestic product) for the Quarter. It's being announced in 6 hours from now. The forecast is a NEVER-EVER-SEEN-BEFORE 18%+ (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) 😮😮😮😮😮 EIGHTEEN PERCENT??? 😮😮😮😮😮 Well, I have never seen an 18% increase ever before. Last one was 5%, normally the Chinese had an average of about: 6,2% in 2019 6,7 in 2018 and in the best years they had around 10,7% in 2007 IF THEY EVEN COME CLOSE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT, THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A VERY GREEN FRIDAY TOMORROW AND A VERY PROMISING NEXT QUARTER FOR INDICES AND CRYPTOS ALIKE. Why? Because it's a small tiny world we live in and if China is going well it's great news for everyone else too. To me, it looks like a scenario where I need to Buy, not to Sell or panic... but I am not always right and I can give you no advise. I am just sharing how I think and what i do... i am BUYING!! One Love, the FXPROFESSOR PS. will everything crash eventually? Yes, maybe but not now, not this year, not before they dare increasing any interest rates. An even if it all crashes we are holding the answer in our crypto-wallets. PS2. Not on cryptos yet? Maybe buy TONIGHT!
NYSE:PLNTLong
by FX_Professor
4
DOGE - Strong BuyDoge Website: dogecoin.com STRONG BUY Wave Count: Daily (Wave 3) Use: Open Source Digital Currecy What is Dogecoin? Dogecoin is a decentralized, peer-to-peer digital currency that enables you to easily send money online. Think of it as "the internet currency." Time-frame-30-60 days What's with Dogecoin and the dog? "Doge" is our fun, friendly mascot! The Shiba Inu is a Japanese breed of dog that was popularized as an online meme and represents Dogecoin. Target: .17-.12 FibMarketWatch
BITTREX:DOGEUSDLong
by FibMarketWatch
1
RidetheMacro| Pound making a correction!📍 GBPUSD is trying to correct on Thursday but the COVID-19 pandemic and Brexit put too much pressure. The British Pound remains weak against the USD on Thursday despite today’s slight attempts to correct. The current quote for the instrument is 1.275xx. The Pound remains under pressure from two very negative factors, the coronavirus, which is reviving in the United Kingdom and not going to give up, and Brexit, London’s persistent and annoying problem. The increase in the number of new coronavirus cases in the United Kingdom gives reason to believe that the second wave of the pandemic is already here. If the speed of the disease spread remains the same as today, the government may have to introduce new quarantine restrictions as early as in October. 📍 Of course, it’s awful for both the Pound and the British economy. As for Brexit, it’s getting more and more complicated as time goes by. Talks with the European Union are stuck and, in this light, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is very aggressive in lobbying for a bill, which will allow the United Kingdom to unilaterally abandon the performance of some articles of the agreement that was approved in January. As a matter of fact, London is trying to rewind the time but the EU, which is quite sick and tired of all problematic initiatives coming from the UK, is highly unlikely to let it happen. Most likely, The United Kingdom will once again have to ask for an extension of the transition period and that’s a serious stress for the Pound. 📍 Technical Point of View The US dollar gains on Thursday, after signs of an economic slowdown in Europe and the US as a concern of the second wave of virus infections. 📍 The Euro already gets weak by strict lockdowns reimplementing again concerns and today release of German business sentiment. 📍 Pound weakness on Strong US dollar concerns and Today speech led by UK chancellor Sunak on to protect jobs and rising COVID 19 infections. 📍 US dollar strengthens by FED raising concerns on for more financial support for the US economy, but the US Congress makes it unlikely to help such support. 📍 Fears of the second wave of coronavirus in Europe are also supported USD and Investors turned backed to healthier assets. 📍 The US dollar expects to surge in spike as second wave and FED talks on the economy is worsens if Policymakers fails to deliver stimulus measures. Until the Next time. Ridethemacro
Short
by Ridethemacro
History: The Silk RoadTehran and Beijing are making plans around the revived silk road. And in just a short 3-4 months the world will discuss the new world order. 3 main groups: the bagholding UN liberals from 1945 (Canada, France, Germany), Trump USA leaving the WHO and the UN, and China that wants to be at the center. A more reasonable in between group that would satisfy both China and Europe liberals sees the world existing around free trade between China & Europe (and the middle east), so this would include the silk road China is working on. Oh and China better work on that trade route because the USA don't want to be a net importer anymore, both sides actually: - The patriots want jobs to be in America and make America a net exporter again. - The liberal-socialists want to end inequality, which comes from being a net importer & open to China regardless of them not understanding it. The middle east & north africa recently had some revolutions against conservatives, I think they are changing. Plus Oil prices... For example there is only a few months left before Algeria runs out of savings and starves to death. Alot of young Iranians are hating the primitive conservative era their country is into. The region getting civilized will give a big boost to the silk road and let Europe & China to continue neo-liberalism (ah yes, China is officially communist right, definitely not state capitalism and neo-liberalism in sez), with the USA devolving into either religious conservatism & patriotism OR wokeness which is even worse. I can easilly see the world revolving around Europe - Middle East - China. "Secondary" major players will be India but they have their issues, SEA nations, South America, North America, Black Africa (maybe divide it in 3). A big Europe - Middle East - China centered world makes alot of sense. The Euro, the ??? Dinar ???, Yuan, and gold. It will take a while for the USD to go away thought. 3 major fiat, gold, and a few "exotic" pairs. That would make sense. Man I don't want to wait 20 years :'( I want to trade those pairs now. I wish I could fast forward without aging. So anyway, I think it's a perfect time to take a look at the silk road. I can't just make a 15000 lines idea so I'll just be scratching the surface here. Christians started as somewhat civilized, and ridiculed pagans as primitives with "illogical supersticious rituals" to gain more followers. In their early days they banned witch hunting calling it a stupid superstition but did that escalate quickly, a few hundred years later they were burning middle aged women hand over fist. Muslims also started as civilized, they gave alot of importance to trade/finance/mercantilism and knowledge, cartographers mathematicians astronomers etc would have salaries that ressemble what modern athletes are getting. And then zealous conservatives took over and recently a 14 yo girl tried running away from her toxic family with a 32 yo bloke so her primitive dad straight up chopped her head off "for honor". Going from mudhuts to civilization and the other way around can happen at such a speed it is scary. In the 60s and 70s the Shah of Iran quickly turned the country from prehistory to a rich top world economy. And then the religious conservative socialists complained that it was greed and hlam and bla bla bla and Iran invented time travel: want to see the middle ages? Take a plane to Tehran. I know it is a little childish to call it mudhut :D But hey there is not a single term for it, sometimes it is refered to as "Bronze age" sometimes as "a decline" sometimes "the middle ages" but it's always the same thing really. Primitive superstitious mudhut dwellers that are bad for business. First of all the entire middle east, north africa, and the area east of the middle east is populated by the same caucasians "whites" with very little genetic variation. They think they are better than each other due to low IQ but they're just the same, same psychology, same civilization cycles, same laws and so on. One of their traits, that every one hates them for, is being very expansionists. Colonisation, crusades, jihads (by the arms or by the words)... Black Africa (to be divided between nilotic people, gold coast africans, and bantus in the center & south) behaves differently, and China/SEA also has a slightly different behavior. I know that black africa is going to run into problems, they have overmultiplicated with the support of European food in the last decades. They used to be a few millions, now they're 1 billion and totally reliant on foreign food, and they are not stopping reproducing. Europe won't be able to keep feeding them forever nor taking in hundreds of millions of colons. Big big problem ahead. India is complicated and speaking about their demographics is taboo (denial). So all of this really applies to Europeans & Muslims, I would not try to copy paste to the rest, and I do not know that much about their history & culture so I stick to what I know... Talking about Black Africa, I think the sahara trade route is being revived (without the slaves - wait no actually with the slaves thx Obama & Hillary). Hillary jokingly said "we came we saw he died". Lybia has a population of 6 million, this is why you cannot be small & ultra-nationalist & isolated in the present day. You'll just get walked all over by some Hillary that will then laugh at how easy it was. A very summed up version of the "white world" which is all I know of: 10000 BC: First human agriculture & futures contracts in the Iraq area 3000 BC - 300 BC: Civilizations (~2500 years) In the middle east (incl Iran & Egypt), and a bit the adjacent North Africa & Greece. 300 BC - 500 BC: Civilization in Europe. Mudhuts in Middle East+. 500 BC - 1500 AD: Civilization in Middle East +. 1500 AD - 2000: Civilization in Europe. Decline & MudHuts in Middle East+. Looking at history, there is 1 thing I know about China it is that they never were a rich country, they always were at a GDP/capita of around the world average. During (and following) their cultural revolution, when young chinese people that are not naive and can think for themselves peacefully protested, mainland China skyrocketed to the poorest country in the world, and after that thing ended and it started to recover of course it had some extreme growth. People think it will continue. The average was just pulling China like a magnet, of course they had rapid growth since they started so far away as poorest in the world. Momo investors think this is physics and it will continue. Sorry but no. Mainland China has never been a rich country in 10000 years so I am not expecting this to change. Probabilities are on my side here. Their growth is already slowing down (even if you adjust for inflation) and their USD bags getting heavy. Know what happened to the peaceful urban student protestors? Mao sent them to the country side to "learn what real work is" (sending dangerous revolutionaries far from him after they filled their purpose). The protestors decades later whined that their future was stolen from them. Gullible pawns. I respect Japan & the 4 tigers but I think I'll just focus on what I know actually: Europeans (and offshoots Australia etc), and "Muslims". Africa has growth potential but those 6 children per women & food issues are going to lead to -100% growth. I'll pass probably. Nilote countries (Kenya Uganda etc), Nigeria, Ghana, might become self sufficient and developped, but they'll just get overwhelmed by infinite extreme poor migrants from Cameroon Congo etc, and if they build walls the international community will call them nazis and frown, check mate they are doomed either way. I will pass unless there is a major event that changes everything. We only know little about history, a fraction of it. But that fraction is absolutely massive for a single lifetime, history does repeat itself, and there is so much we can learn. Someone that knows a little about the world, both present day and past, has a huge edge compared to those that are ignorant (and 99% of the time are delusional and think something will last forever). One has to understand knowledge, not learn it by heart, here I would be careful. Remember the biggest most cluseless group of clueless idiots is university professors of economics. If you want to learn more about the modern day silk road you could start searching for "AIIB and one belt one road".
TVC:GOLDEducation
by MrRenev
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