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Triggers for Major Corrections a.k.a. Black SwansIn the world of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, extreme volatility is the norm, not the exception. However , certain unexpected events — the so-called "Black Swans" — can trigger particularly severe corrections. These events, often unforeseen, can send shockwaves through the market, leading to sharp declines in BITSTAMP:BTCUSD value. Here are some real-world scenarios that could potentially trigger such corrections: 1. World Economy While Bitcoin has been around for just over a decade, it's shown a tendency to follow traditional financial markets, particularly the S&P 500. A major global economic crisis — say, a sudden collapse of a large economy like US or the escalation of geopolitical tensions — could lead to a broad retail sell-off across all asset classes. Investors might liquidate Bitcoin holdings to cover losses in traditional assets, triggering a sharp decline in its price. For instance, during the COVID-19 market crash in Feb/March 2020, Bitcoin plummeted( -63% ) alongside global stocks, demonstrating its vulnerability to wider economic turmoil. 2. Regulators Regulate Regulatory risks have always been a shadow hanging over the cryptocurrency market. Imagine if the US or the EU suddenly decided to implement draconian laws against Bitcoin, such as banning institutional investment or severely restricting trading. This isn’t far-fetched; we’ve seen something similar in China in 2021, where a nationwide crackdown on crypto mining and trading led to a significant drop in BITSTAMP:BTCUSD price( -49% in May ). If a similar scenario were to play out in the West, it could easily lead to a mass exodus from the cryptocurrency, causing its value to plummet. 3. Geopolitics Geopolitical tensions have a way of shaking up financial markets. Consider the potential fallout if tensions in the Middle East were to boil over into a full-scale conflict, or if relations between NATO and Russia were to deteriorate further. Such scenarios could trigger global uncertainty, leading to a flight to safer assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries — and a corresponding sell-off in riskier assets like Bitcoin. The war in Ukraine in 2022 caused significant turbulence in BITSTAMP:BTCUSD price( -61% ), and a similar or more severe event could have a chilling effect on Bitcoin. 4. Hacking Bitcoin’s strength lies in its technology, but that’s also a potential point of failure. If there were to be a significant flaw discovered in the BTC protocol, or if a major exchange were to suffer a catastrophic hack, it could erode trust in the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem. We’ve seen echoes of this before: the Mt. Gox hack in 2014 wiped out a substantial portion of BITSTAMP:BTCUSD in circulation at the time, leading to a massive price drop( -38% ). A similar event today could be even more devastating, given the broader adoption of Bitcoin. 5. Fraud In November 2022, the investigation revealed that FTX management, including its founder Sam Bankman-Fried, illegally used customer funds to cover losses of a related company, Alameda Research. This led to a loss of investor and customer confidence, causing a massive withdrawal of funds, which in turn led to the bankruptcy of the exchange - and the subsequent severe correction of BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ( -26% ). Thoughts Bitcoin's rollercoaster ride is anything but smooth. Wild swings in price can come from anywhere—regulations, market bubbles, or even major collapses like FTX. For investors, the game is about staying sharp and ready for whatever comes next. The crypto world is full of surprises, and knowing that the next big shock could be just around the corner is key to keeping your cool and making smart moves.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Paramonov95
1
Macro Monday 56~Venezuela - Democracy Beacons Economic Reform Macro Monday 56 Venezuela - Democracy Beacons Economic Reform As one of the core members of OPEC, Venezuela holds the distinction of having the largest oil reserves in the world with over 304 billion barrels beneath its surface. This is marginally more than the Saudi Arabia oil reserves. If you ever wondered where the largest oil reserves in the whole world where, they are located on the Orinoco Oil Belt in Central Venezuela. Unfortunately Venezuela has suffered from political and economic factors that hasn’t allowed the country and its people to benefit from this large natural resource. A national election on the 28th July 2024 has the potential to change everything and allow Venezuelans to form a democratic government. This has the promise of leading the country into a new positive social and economic epoch. Venezuela’s oil production plummeted by c.75% over the past ten years, largely due to political missteps. The current administrations illegal expropriations of foreign oil and gas assets were a major red flag for potential investors. Additionally, Venezuela’s poor governance, mismanagement, and U.S. sanctions have contributed to a drastic decline in oil output. In September 2023, Venezuela produced only 735,000 barrels per day, making it the 10th-largest producer in OPEC despite it being the largest global oil reserve. The situation highlights the some challenges faced by petrostates that heavily rely on oil exports and their governance over it. Path to Democracy calls for International Support Venezuela stands at a critical juncture, with the potential for a historic return to democracy by way of national election on 28th July 2024. The opposition has rallied behind a leading candidate, Edmundo González of the Democratic Unity Platform (PUD) for the upcoming national election. He has taken the place of the former disqualified Maria Corina Machado (unfairly ousted by the incumbent). The incumbent President Nicolás Maduro remains a significant obstacle and still gains support from a Chavista Base. The Chavista Base refers to the loyal supporters of Chavismo, a left-wing populist political ideology associated with the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. These supporters are committed to strong socialist ideas, programs, and government style that characterized Chávez’s rule from 1999 to 2013. Despite international pressure, sanctions and disapproval, this group remains fiercely loyal to the Chavista movement and its successor, President Nicolás Maduro. The opposition Edmundo González, has been leading the polls by over 20 - 40 points and thus the people of Venezuela are calling out for change having suffered under the socialist regime. Maduro's regime has arguably eroded democracy and has been the cause of significant economic pitfalls, and social unrest. To support Venezuelans’ fight for democracy, the United States may offer a legal off-ramp for Maduro and his allies, ensuring they won’t face prosecution if they recognize electoral defeat. This approach has worked in other countries like South Africa and Chile, after which both countries could move forward constructively and relatively peacefully. This approach could allow for a peaceful transition to democracy in Venezuela. A democratic Venezuela would benefit U.S. foreign policy, limit migration to the U.S, and reduce the influence of Russia and China in the South Americas via pacts like the BRICS. Previous efforts to achieve the off-ramp approach in Venezuela have failed, however the opposition leader González is ahead in most polls and the election is days away. With some international pressure/support, this could be a major moment for Venezuela, opening up the country and its resources to operate under a free market, allowing for competitive growth, innovation freedom, consumer sovereignty and free flowing export economy. Exports Venezuela is historically highly dependent on its petroleum oil exports. Crude oil, in particular, has been the primary driver of its export revenue. In recent years, Venezuela’s top exports include: 1. Mineral fuels including oil: This category represents 26.1% of total exports. 2. Iron and steel: Comprising 21% of exports. 3. Organic chemicals: Accounting for 9.9% of exports. 4. Aluminum: Representing 8.4% of exports. 5. Fish: Contributing 7.5% to export value. These products collectively account for 88.1% of Venezuela’s global shipments. Notably, mineral fuels (especially crude oil) have experienced significant growth in recent years. China, Turkey, Spain, the U.S., and Brazil are among Venezuela’s main export partners. Blooming Tourism Sector In 2023 Venezuela experienced a remarkable resurgence in international tourism. The country welcomed 1.25 million foreign visitors, marking a 90% increase compared to the previous year when 656,000 people arrived. While specific revenue figures for 2023 are not readily available, this surge in tourist arrivals indicates a positive trend for the Venezuelan tourism sector. I thought id mention just just a few attractions: 1.Angel Falls: Located in Canaima National Park, Angel Falls is the highest waterfall in the world, dropping 979 meters. Best seen during the rainy season (May to November) when water flow is abundant. 2.Los Roques Archipelago: This chain of islands, 160 kilometres north of the central coast, offers sun-drenched beaches, turquoise waters, and coral reefs. It’s a paradise for beach lovers and nature enthusiasts. The Chart Caracas Stock Exchange- BME:IBC Summary I cannot recommend taking an entry on the above chart and regardless, it would be incredibly difficult to do so with sanctions in place and the political turmoil that is yet to be resolved. However, a major date is approaching for the national election this coming Sunday 28th July 2024 , and it could be the beginning of a monumental positive shift for the future of Venezuela’s economy. We can only watch from afar and not forget that this country boasts thee largest oil reserves in the world, has a blooming tourism scene with some of the most unique tourist attractions, and a varied export economy. Somewhere in the future there will likely be great opportunity in Venezuela, however for the moment we await the shifting winds of democracy to catch the Venezuelan sails. Lets see what happens this Sunday. PUKA
BVCV:IBC
by PukaCharts
75: China Export Analysis - Fundamental and Technical OverviewThe European Union (EU) and the United States have increased scrutiny and imposed higher tariffs on Chinese imports, particularly electric vehicles and strategic materials like gallium and germanium. These measures are designed to protect domestic industries from what are perceived as unfair trade practices and subsidies by the Chinese government. Additionally, the EU's new Critical Raw Material Act and battery regulations aim to reduce dependency on Chinese imports and secure supply chains for critical technologies. These regulatory changes have led to a noticeable decline in Chinese exports to the EU. In response, China has imposed export restrictions on key materials, further straining trade relations. These geopolitical tensions and trade barriers have significantly impacted China's export figures. Currently, China's export trend is showing a downward trajectory. The export figures have struggled to reach the $350 billion mark and are at risk of dropping significantly lower, potentially towards the $140 billion level. Chart Overview: Trend Line: A clear downtrend is visible on the chart, with lower highs and lower lows indicating sustained pressure. Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance: The $350 billion level is the upcoming resistance. That has not yet been reached. Support: Immediate support is observed around $250 billion. A break below this level could accelerate the downward move towards $140 billion. Will We Reach $350 Billion or Go Lower? Given the current economic and geopolitical landscape, it seems still likely that China will reach the $350 billion export mark in the near term because there has not been a really corrective wave in the chart. But the downward pressure from increased tariffs, export restrictions, and the EU's push for supply chain independence are significant hurdles. If these conditions persist, a further decline is a plausible scenario.
ECONOMICS:CNEXP
by SeventyFive-Invest
NASDAQ100 - US MARKETS UPDATEInvesting isn't always that easy, heh? Especially in Bear Markets, the market circumstances seem to trick one into thinking, that the next bull run will happen soon. The Bull is climbing up the stairway and it takes a while, whereas the bear jumps out of the window. Looking at YTD 32.88% decline as of 27.06.2022 in the US TECH 100 is one of the worst Q1 and Q2 in the history of US markets. Inflation is at 8,6% in the United States (10.06.2022) and around 7.5% in Europe. The western world faces a huge backlash after rising the interest charges by 0.75 percentage-points to a range between 1.5%-1.75%. Covid-19 is still around and has sluggished the world economy and growth view for the past two years. Facing climate change may be one of, if not the biggest threat of the 21. century and the Ukraine conflict does not make it look better at all:- ) All the Quantitative Easing and Printing money have led to massive inflation all over the place. The only real solution is to simply "produce more". Sounds easier than it's done, with a view to collapsed supply chains. Chart: RSI is at lows forming a triangle, indecision. 200MA is a good trivial indicator to get a minimum idea of the AVERAGE price of this derivate. I think a retest of 14.500 is in play, after which the bear market could continue. I think we have not seen the bottom here, since the real sell-off hasn't happened yet. Being liquid in dangerous times is the best thing you can do and is actually the only way to really make some money. So, catching a falling knife is always a risky thing to do, but if you catch it, this could change your life. These kinds of opportunities are not that often in life, maybe once in a lifetime or once every one or two decades. The NASDAQ doubled in on year, literally mooning, due to the printed money, which was flooded into the markets, to catch the markets and secure a fluid economy, but guess what, we have used our last gun powder, and no we are facing the costs of this two-year printerage. It was necessary, but the consequences are real and in my personal opinion, most of the stocks are overpriced. I'm just gonna say it, they are OVERPRICED. Especially tech and housing market looks bubbly and an honest recovery after a healthy bull market from literally the 2008 crisis. So I think we can go down and test the highs before the Covid-19 Crash (16.03.2020) at around 10.000 points. I feel like September could be a stop to raising rates, which would lead to more upside, but IF we somehow manage to find a bottom and to not test lower levels, highs as 20.000 until 2024 is absolutely in play! No one knows what will happen, so my personal bet would be bearish until the market, the government and the economy gives massive positive signals to the public, to reenter a bull market. Until then i personally stay bearish and stay liquid. I try to average in an amount here and there from time to time. At one point it will turn because everything comes to an end at a certain point. All right, if you made it until here, thanks for reading! Take care, gqt
TVC:NDQ
by GER-Quality-Trades
SPX: Could this occur in our lifetime? The breakout of an era.AI advancement, geopolitical turmoil and power grabs, inflation, structural societal changes. What could possibly be driving us fatefully into this new era. Something in the macro is brewing. Could we really be this close to testing the top of this almost 100 year channel for the S&P 500 (roughly 15% from today) ? Do we break out or fall back down? What happens if we break out? What are your thoughts? Where do you think we go from here?
SP:SPX
by HassiOnTheMoon
4
This is the topHowdy folks its been a while, Wanted to come back and let all you good folks know that this is the top, the range that we are in is the top. I've been conflicted in my self confidence of decision making when it comes to trading and has been a shock. Almost like I lost sight of who I thought I was, that hurt my ego. We are not our ego though? We think we know ourselves, all we know is what we are not. New data, new perspective, new algo, new view. When we know what we are not is when we can see what we are. That's all folks,
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by moonman777
"De-Dollarization" is coming...?The U.S. dollar has dominated global trade and capital flows over many decades. However, many nations are looking for alternatives to the greenback to reduce their dependence on the United States. This graphic catalogs the rise of the U.S. dollar as the dominant international reserve currency, and the recent efforts by various nations to de-dollarize and reduce their dependence on the U.S. financial system. The United States became, almost overnight, the leading financial power after World War I. The country entered the war only in 1917 and emerged far stronger than its European counterparts. As a result, the dollar began to displace the pound sterling as the international reserve currency and the U.S. also became a significant recipient of wartime gold inflows. The dollar then gained a greater role in 1944, when 44 countries signed the Bretton Woods Agreement, creating a collective international currency exchange regime pegged to the U.S. dollar which was, in turn, pegged to the price of gold. By the late 1960s, European and Japanese exports became more competitive with U.S. exports. There was a large supply of dollars around the world, making it difficult to back dollars with gold. President Nixon ceased the direct convertibility of U.S. dollars to gold in 1971. This ended both the gold standard and the limit on the amount of currency that could be printed. Although it has remained the international reserve currency, the U.S. dollar has increasingly lost its purchasing power since then. Russia and China’s Steps Towards De-Dollarization Concerned about America’s dominance over the global financial system and the country’s ability to ‘weaponize’ it, other nations have been testing alternatives to reduce the dollar’s hegemony. As the United States and other Western nations imposed economic sanctions against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow and the Chinese government have been teaming up to reduce reliance on the dollar and to establish cooperation between their financial systems. Since the invasion in 2022, the ruble-yuan trade has increased eighty-fold. Russia and Iran are also working together to launch a cryptocurrency backed by gold, according to Russian news agency Vedmosti. In addition, central banks (especially Russia’s and China’s) have bought gold at the fastest pace since 1967 as countries move to diversify their reserves away from the dollar. How Other Countries are Reducing Dollar Dependence De-dollarization it’s a theme in other parts of the world: - In recent months, Brazil and Argentina have discussed the creation of a common currency for the two largest economies in South America. - In a conference in Singapore in January, multiple former Southeast Asian officials spoke about de-dollarization efforts underway. - The UAE and India are in talks to use rupees to trade non-oil commodities in a shift away from the dollar, according to Reuters. - For the first time in 48 years, Saudi Arabia said that the oil-rich nation is open to trading in currencies besides the U.S. dollar. Despite these movements, few expect to see the end of the dollar’s global sovereign status anytime soon. Currently, central banks still hold about 60% of their foreign exchange reserves in dollars. What will happen to the dollar in the next few years? What is your opinion? Like if my analysis is useful. Cheers!
TVC:DXY
by TheAnonymousBanker
7
Soft Landing 🛬 (Or Crash 💥)What Is a Soft Landing? A soft landing, in economics, is a cyclical slowdown in economic growth that avoids recession. A soft landing is the goal of a central bank when it seeks to raise interest rates just enough to stop an economy from overheating and experiencing high inflation, without causing a severe downturn. Soft landing may also refer to a gradual, relatively painless slowdown in a particular industry or economic sector. Understanding Soft Landings While airline passengers can take soft landings for granted these days, the Federal Reserve's past interest-rate hiking cycles don't have the same track record of regular success. The term "soft landing" gained currency during the tenure of former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan, widely credited with engineering one in 1994-1995. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has also suggested the Fed achieved soft landings in 1965 and 1984, and was on course for another one in 2020 before the COVID-19 pandemic intervened. In contrast, a recession followed the last five instances when inflation peaked above 5%, in 1970, 1974, 1980, 1990 and 2008. The Fed's soft landings record is, at best, mixed because the central bank doesn't exercise nearly the same control over the course of the economy as a pilot has over aircraft. The Fed's main policy tools, interest rates and asset holdings, are blunt instruments not designed to solve supply chain disruptions or pandemics. In dismissing another vehicular analogy, former Fed chair Ben Bernanke once said that "if making monetary policy is like driving a car, then the car is one that has an unreliable speedometer, a foggy windshield, and a tendency to respond unpredictably and with a delay to the accelerator or the brake." Nothing that's happened since has made the Fed's job look any easier. The term "soft landing" comes from aviation, where it refers to the kind of landing that goes smoothly. The Bottom Line The Fed's attempts to bring about a soft landing are complicated by the policy lags Bernanke and many others have noted. Because the economy takes time to respond to changes in monetary policy, the Fed must determine the pace of rate hikes without the benefit of seeing the full effect of prior ones, or of its policy signaling. For signaling to have an effect, the Fed's policy must be seen as at least somewhat predictable, limiting the central bank's flexibility in responding to economic developments. Such constraints mean luck still plays at least as big a role as skill when it comes to soft economic landings. News: Fed's 'soft landing' hopes alive as it edges toward another big rate hike : www.reuters.com Jerome Powell has a tough message for investors: Tighten your seatbelts, because recession and unemployment are coming: fortune.com At the end of the day nobody knows what will happen. It will all depend on the crisis between Russia and the West. Can WW3 happen? Will the situation in Ukraine be eased/resolved? Will China stand for peace and commerce or will the confrontation become 'East vs West'? Will inflation ease? Will the US economy stand strong? Can Europe and England survive this storm? Is a recession avoidable or not? Wish you all a nice week and may September go down as the bad month again. Octobers seem to do better. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR PS. I do see support today. this week will be huge for what's next
CME_MINI:ES1!
by FX_Professor
5
(Tutorial) World Markets & their affect on Indian Stock Market!Hello Traders/Investors, Lets learn World Stock Markets and How it affect us in India on Daily/Weekly and even on long-term basis. Note: this topic is specifically for Traders (specially Day traders) and also Investors might find it interesting read. - US is called mother market and we're (i.e. Indian stock market) child market. - US market gives a queue on how world and our market would perform based on it. - Sectors like Banks (Dow Jones Bank index) n Tech/IT (NASDAQ) work pretty hand in hand with rest of world in terms of giving us a idea of direction towards which sector can have chances of moving by how much %age today. - - SGX Nifty , its a Nifty's Future contract which is traded in Singapore Exchange and gives a good idea on start of our markets. SGX Nifty timings : 6.30 AM to 11.30 PM - Asian markets specially South Korea, Hang Seng n Japan market we should watch carefully in morning to track the direction of markets. We belong to pretty much similar basket. - European Markets, CAC, DAX and FTSE we should get a median of these 3 exchanges to know how much %age they're moving. Just an observation here, our Indian markets usually stay closer to DAX movement. - Emerging markets (short form : EMs) : Emerging markets generally do not have as highly developed market and regulatory institutions as those found in developed nations. Market efficiency and strict standards in accounting and securities regulation are generally not on par with advanced economies (such as those of the United States, Europe, and Japan). - Some of the most rapidly emerging countries include Brazil, Turkey, Russia, India, and China. Also some oil rich nations are also part of this list. - To get a holistic picture of world markets.. get a queue from yesterday's closing of world markets specially US alongwith US futures which are very important. - Then, in mornings look at Asian Markets n SGX Nifty to understand where our markets might open. Around afternoon when European markets open you get an idea where our Indian market might stabilise n close. Also, we can look at European futures to get idea on where Euro markets might open. - Lastly macro economic data like Commodity prices specially Crude oil , USD INR n Dollar Index give a clarity on the markets. Higher Dollar n lower Rupee would cause panic in stock markets usually. Similarly, higher crude oil prices indirectly reduces countries foreign reserves n also affect business due to rising transport costs causing more expenses n less income. - Cryptos movements can also affect markets now days, a big downmove on cryptos n hit many stop losses n cause for margin calls n hence companies might have to liquidate other assets of individuals like stocks etc. go get back their money. - Honest mentions: Sometimes some macros are in news, then in those days stock markets start mimicking their charts.. it can b currency pair USDINR , US 10yrd BOND yield, Crude OIL sudden surge or drop in prices and most recently, NIFTY is pretty closely mimicking the US30 futures chart trend on day trades. - My personal hack: I do all my Technical Analysis on these charts n not just on NIFTY and BANKNIFTY etc. I draw all the Supply n Demand zones, Channels, Trendlines etc. to get queues from them to implement it on my trading in Intraday in India. Usually it works like a charm! World major stock markets timings in IST (i.e. Indian Standard Timings) : North America Stock Exchange Timings: Country Stock Exchange Opening Time (Indian Timing) Closing Time (Indian Timing) US NASDAQ 7 : 00 PM 1 : 30 AM US NYSE 7 : 00 PM 1 : 30 AM Canada TMX Group 8:00 PM 2:30 AM European Stock Exchange Timings: Country Stock Exchange Opening Time (Indian Timing) Closing Time (Indian Timing) UK London Stock Exchange 1 : 30 PM 10 : 00 PM European Union Euronext 12:30 PM 9:00 PM Germany Deutsche Borse 12:30 PM 2:30 AM Switzerland SIX Swiss Exchange 1:30 PM 10:00 PM Spain BME Spanish Exchange 1:30 PM 10:00 PM Asia-Pacific Stock Exchange Timings Country Stock Exchange Opening Time (Indian Timing) Closing Time (Indian Timing) Australia Australian Security Exchange 5:30 AM 11:30 AM Japan Japan Exchange Group 5:30 AM 11:30 AM Hong Kong Hong Kong Stock Exchange 6:45 AM 1:30 PM China Shanghai Stock Exchange 7:00 AM 12:30 PM China Shenzhen Stock Exchange 7:00 AM 12:30 PM Taiwan Taiwan Stock Exchange 6:30 AM 11:00 AM South Korea KRX Korean Exchange 5:30 AM 11:30 AM India NSE and BSE 9:15 AM 3:30 PM You can google n find most of Live market details on many websites, I usually enjoy Investing .com for their simple UI and charts. Please take all positions at your own risks and these are my personal views on analyzing markets. I'm not responsible for any losses incurred by you! Regards, Anshul
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by simplyansh
Nasdaq Plunge coming soon 5 Months of the ATH before the market crash, Nasdaq managed to find support around 24% down. When this support was broken, Nasdaq crashed by another 30%. 2008/09 housing market crises caused a world wide recession. Are we seeing similar situation in 2022? The technical analysis would suggest it is very possible. Not to mention the war in Ukraine, rising energy costs, inflation as well as a possible food shortage. Have a look and please share your comments.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by claude2503
ETH UNDER 3K TAKE PROFITSETH under $3000 does not look good. People will not like this but it is very true. Ask yourself how does ETH help crypto adoption with $1000 transaction fees, that is a government tax. That does not lead to mass adoption, especially with crippling Inflation and world uncertainty, World War. Why wouldn't smart money move to real value assets with Supply Shock such as OIL and Wheat. Spend the rest of the year thinking about what has value in the real world. Not Financial Advice, Trade and Invest Safe.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Fakeoutking82
8
2D Copper chart shows that Dr. Copper is still in down trendCopper is an indicator of world economy, during recession period it goes down along with the stock market. Copper peaked in last few days while the stock market around the world was falling or extremely volatile. However in 2 Days time frame it does clearly shows a pin bar which was a Lower High in series of Lower Lows and Lower Highs. I think copper may continue its down trend if the war situation starts affecting world economy.
Short
by spranav
The predicted market crash... Can it get any worse? Yes!The predicted market crash... Can it get any worse? well, yes! •Short since $4731 (closed some of my shorts today)↘️🔻 written on: 19:16 Thursday, February 24th, 2022 Central European Time ( CET ) S&P 500 Index (and the entire market with it) The TA: We broke out of the rising wedge on the 18th of January. We retested the wedge as resistance on January 18th. The target price of the wedge breakout towards the downside was roughly $4111.96, which hit today. The chart has now formed a head and shoulders pattern, which we broke the neckline off today. We will probably retest the neckline. If we can't break that resistance, the Head and Shoulders is confirmed following a 3735 target. We also broke our long term trendline that we had as support since the beginning of the recovery of the 2020 covid crash (I will make a seperate idea on that one). The squeeze momentum indicator, by Lazybear just turned red and we have a bearish monthly MACD cross. •Almost every indicator suggests that we are overvalued in the long term. 94% correlation between the Nasdaq 100 in the 15 years to today, and the 15 years to 2000. The S&P500 shows a 95% correlation. We all know what happened during 2000s, the markets collapsed. shiller PE ratio is currently sitting at 34.27 on the day of writing this (the last time I updated this, it was sitting at 40.14 so it has come down a bit, but we still have a long way to go). The mean is at 16.92 and the median is at 15.87. 34.27/16.88*100≈ 203% 203-100= 103% This means that we are possibly 103% overvalued. •The warren buffet indicator is telling us that we are strongly overvalued. The indicator sits at a 195% Market value to GDP ratio. The exponential trendline suggests that a Market Value to GDP ratio of 120% to be fairly valued. We are 51% higher than the long-term trendline. (this was 71% the last time) What is going on in the world? •Russia vs Ukraine war. This is very bad news and I hope that everyone stays safe. Money is way less important then the lives of innocent people. No one wants war. The Russian index crashed 45%, before rebounding during the trading session. The indexes in Europe also got crushed, just like the s&p500. We recovered the losses in the late trading hours which is very impressive. •The number of Nasdaq stocks that have hit a 52-week low now dwarfs even that of the 2000 dot-com bubble and global financial crisis. It looks like the high multiple, tech stock bubble might have already burst. The s&p500 is just lagging behind and can go much lower then the current valuations. A ton of stocks; large or mid cap, value or growth have been absolutely devastated since I started writing about a crash: •The FED is going to increase its interest rates, because the inflation is getting out of hand. 7.5% is the highest we have seen since the 1980s. We don’t know the ammount and the number of times that they are going to increase the interest rates, but 50 pivot points in march looks realistic to me. When the interest are getting an increase, it works like an anker on the stock market. And because we have so much debt right now, this could lead to even more pain then what we have seen. You don't want a hawkish FED as your opponent. Historically, the inflation has grown slowly, but during this and last year the inflation went through the roof. •Members of congress and people in the government (clearly insiders: looking at you nancy pelosi) are not allowed to own stocks anymore very soon? Correct me if I am wrong on this one. •The Canadian real estate bubble is so big, that even the mother of all crashes can’t fix it. The composite benchmark, (a.k.a. a typical home) was $798,200 in December, up 27.8% from a year before. It is at an all-time high for both price and annual growth. betterdwelling.com Mortgage lenders are about to get destroyd. Just looking at the current market and where rates are going is a recipe for disaster. In the last few years, they had between 2-3x regular refinance volume. Leaving a large pool of borrowers who will not to refinance for at leat 3-5 years. •Mortgage rates have risen almost a full 1% in just the last 2 months, will likely raise another 1% by End Of Year. This will further slow demand. Housing market starting to show signs of cooling. Worst case scenarios is housing values drop even more which will cause cash out refinances to dry up as well. Lenders are starting to lay people off. I have heard some shops are reporting declines. •canadian tv reminding people that bank deposits are ensured. (The Royale Bank of Canada made this advertisement as well). •billionaire investors have a lot of cash ontheir hands. •Michael Burry and a ton of other famous investors predict that the markets will collapse. Warren Buffett has stopped buying new shares. Michael burry has sold his positions •Palantir warns people of a black swan event. •energy crisis in China and Europe. A lot of factory's in China are shutting down or slowing down because they have no power. This only got worse today since Russia attacked Ukraine, the oil prices peaked at $105.74. Every time that the oil prices reached prices above $100, we entered a recession after that. With the current sanctions against Russia, we can expect commodities like gas and oil to rise even further. Which could lead to even more inflation. •reverse repo has never been this high. 1,738.322 billion usd (that is more then a trillion!!!). The Fed's reverse repo facility allows big institutions - mostly big banks and money-market mutual funds - to buy securities from the Fed with an agreement to sell them back to the central bank for a specified price at a specific time. •Jpegs are getting sold for millions of dollars, which looks like the Dutch tulips bubble to me. •Prices have been sky-high in the last months for almost everything, could we be in an everything bubble? •With the old measurements, CPI / Inflation is above 15%, that is just as bad as the top in 1982 (instead of 7.5%). •fibonacci extension tells us that $4875.56 could be the end. (the top is $4818.62, for now. So I my prediction was 1.16% off) •stablecoin Tether has been in trouble for a long time. When tether crashes, everything crashes with it. 80% of BTC’s volume goes through Tether. So when Tether falls, Bitcoin falls and when Bitcoin falls, everything falls with it. •supply chain issues and shortages for almost everything. •Indexes like XRT with 1200% short interests (GME is in this index) •historic records amount of margin: When everyone is using a lot of margin in the markets, things can change very quickly for the worse, because their positions can get liquidated. If people with leveraged long-positions starts to get liquidated, more people start to get liquidated since the price has gone down even more. etc. etc. etc. (until the market has fully crashed). Not only that, retail investors are going to panic sell in such an event. the only thing that needs to happen for a trend reversal is a bad event. Like seriously, since when can retail investors use more then 100x leverage? •We printed a ton of money during the COVID-19 period. When we had the 2020 march crash, the stock market recovered insanely fast, even when the economy was falling. The recovery happened because we printed so much money to support the company's (not because the businesses were performing great). --> •The markets are not based on fundamentals anymore: 1 million+ people dead due to covid? No problem, the market goes up by 30%. Millions of people getting unemployed in the US and the rest of the world? Not a problem, the market goes up by another 30%. Businesses declaring bankruptcy? It didn't matter. we just kept on going up. Almost every business was experiencing massive losses while their stock price was skyrocketing. The money printing led to massive inflation. The supply chain issues made this even worse. We have to pay for our mistakes now. The FED has to force a recession. •Eliott waves suggest that a big crash is going to happen. We are in wave 5 in the long term chart from 2008 until now (and possibly the 100 year chart as well). So the next wave will be a market correction. "The bubble": massive credit to u/BigTechEqualsValud: www.reddit.com "It is clear stocks are in a massive bubble based on their Price to Sale (P/S valuation). Warren Buffett stated that his favorite means of valuing stock was the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio. Below is a chart for this metric. As you can see, the stock market today is as overvalued relative to the economy as it was at the peak of the 1999 Tech Mania. r/wallstreetbets - We are in Tech Bubble 2.0, but it's actually the everything bubble So stocks are overvalued based on the most reliable corporate data point (revenues) and they are also overvalued relative to the economy. Scratch that, they're not overvalued... they're trading at 1999-Tech Bubble insanity levels. This time the FED has created a bubble in everything. A "risk-free rate" of return against which ALL risk assets are valued. Comparing to 1999 tech bubble, 2008 housing market bubble, this will be considered the 2022 Digitial Currency/EV bubble. Look at the 10-20 year charts for any automotive company. It is not pretty. So what makes Rivian and LCID worth more than GM or Toyota? Nothing, since its a bubble. I will rule out Tesla on this one since we know damn well they make money, have an incredible CEO, and produce something tangible unlike these others. Tesla is still overvalued and it will go down with the digital currency/ev crash, but most likely not as hard as other competitors". •Evergrande defaulted on its debt and is now restructuring, we will have to see how that goes. But its still massively in debt and the bonds were never payed according to dr Metzler. DMSA and dr Metzler has a class action lawsuit against Evergrande to file them for bankruptcy. This •Evergrande is still one of the biggest real estate developers, but people seem to forget about this very dangerous problem. Evergrande still has to pay 305 billion USD. They haven't even paid of 1% of their debt. So who are the biggest bagholders of the $305B in bad bonds? --> There are several American and Canadian banks that Evergrande ows money to: First we've got the Royale Bank of Canada which has $46B in evergrande bonds with a Evergrande is not the only Chinese property business with huge amounts of debt. A ton of other Chinese property company’s have defaulted so far. Some of them are now bankrupt. If you were wondering why there was that weird after hours - the stock dropped 64% during AH in one day, but then they fixed the "glitch" and the price went back up. RBC looked worthless and this was just the real view of the bank's financial state when the bonds hit zero. The media told us that the bonds from November 10th were payed, however DMSA says otherwise. Dr . Metzler, the owner of DMSA bought Evergrande bonds because he had a suspicion that the bond payments were not made. So he knew he wouldn’t get his money back. He just wanted to proof his theory. So we could be being lied to (however I’m not a fan of conspiracy theory’s) THE BONDS WERE NOT PAYED!!! Conclusion: the TA looks bad and so does everything going on in the world right now. If this ends up happening it will be a fantastic buying opportunity. The S&p500 could go higher to the 5500s (which won’t happen in my opinion), but a crash is inevitable. It has already correcIf it doesn't happen this year, then it will probably happen in the next 2 years. Its a ticking time bomb. Its just a matter of time when all of this comes together and It *could* happen very, very soon. Do you really want to risk a 10-20% return when the market could fall 50% or more? You can cash out now and buy back 2x the amount of the shares after the crash. And get 2.5x the amount of shares that you could buy now. (this probably doesn’t make a lot of sense anymore. If you bought normal stocks, you are already down like 50% so it doesn’t make a lot of sense to sell with such a big loss). Buy great deals like PayPal or similair stocks that are already down more then 50%
TVC:SPXShort
by Y_Duursma
2
S&P 500 To Repeat Cycle?Interesting to see the S&P 500 price action respecting this charted Gann Fan so many times since mid 2019. One would presume that since validated multiple times previously over the months that we are close to crossing the Angle 1/2, which would push the market into "Above Averagely Bullish" territory again. I pulled a Bar Pattern from OCT 2019- MAR 2020 and scaled it to today's price action. It is scary to see the resemblance of this Fractal and its movement once above the Gann Fan Angle 1/2. What is also weird is to see the reaction of the Bar Pattern off the drawn Resistance Trendline, which starts back in SEP 2019. Will this cycle repeat? Only time will tell. "DISCLAIMER: NO ADVICE. The information presented here is general in nature and is for education purposes only. Nothing should be considered to be advice. You should consult with an appropriate professional for specific advice tailored to your situation."
TVC:SPXLong
by Trader_Johnni
Re-Test imminent The drop since the last top has pretty much been lower time frame charts cooling off the rsi ( 1 hour, slightly 4 hour ). With the 4 hr candles staying in range / consolidating since last nights high, i believe there is a another big push or two left to top out 4 hr on rsi. When that happens a new all time high should be established. Could be a long or short not worth missing in these next 48 hours. Will be watching 4hr, daily, weekly charts after new ATH to see if ATH will be tested again with next weekly candle before ultimate consolidations and retracements begin. The NationWide Crypto / Digital era is beginning with more mainstream CO’s going into bitcoin And the public become more aware as a digital lifestyle/experience begins to sweep through as the world adapts during lockdowns and pandemics. Bear or Bull enjoy these profits
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by pipsmoke
1
Corrections / China and cashLooks like the crypto market cap is moving nicely with BTC. i dont include BTC in market cap. i use bitcoin as a stand alone chart. why? Chinas printer is going BRRR right now. look at bitcoin as the digital YUAN. thats right i said it. 2017 bull run 80% of that bull run came from the YUAN coming into the market. The other 20% was the rest of the world currencies mixed. all i know is that theres a much bigger war going on across the board than people think. Crypto is battling with cash and China isn't having it with trump. Get ready for a crazy 2021. after the election. money printing is going to get even crazier than what we've seen in 2020. crypto bubble happen in 2018 and now its coming to a end and getting ready for bull run once again in 2021. below is my btc chart
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by KidCrypto514