Dow Jones, small rally before another leg down.I believe we will see close to 25000 levels before we get another strong push down.
Worldeconomy
BTC Bottom, Banks in the riskzone of Corona like old people. The world economy is in an extreme situation.
Factories all around the world are on survival mode or completely shut down.
Central banks are printing money in a brutal level then ever before.
They are actually saying that "this unique situation with Virus is not our fault"
Well.. thats something you can tell to the average guy that dosen't now shit. As you make your bed, so you must lie.
These are the consequences of using minus interest and QE, not the Virus.
Bitcoin is facing a big survival fight.
Both Miners and Investors are in a situation where they need to really have faith in Bitcoin.
Let's say this is a war between old monetary system and a new decentralized system.
Gold is physical and cant be vanished. BTC is depended on internet and electricity. Thats risk to have in mind.
But still, we are moving towards new era of technology and Bitcoin will survive this, question is where the new bottom will be found.
If we look in two Fibonacci and take away the extremes (highs and lows) we can see bottom at level 0.786
Now we have a situation where Coronavirus is shutting down the world. So if world economy take big hits, it is the new generation that will choose what to keep alive.
Trendline from 2013 is indicating a new low at 2k but Fib 0.786 is at 2.4k. Either way, we have new lows to see in this uniqe situation.
Crude Oil Corona Depression targetsCrude Oil falls 50-70% during contractions,
Since last crash that was partly caused by shale oil production, USA returned mantile of the biggest oil producer in the world securing its domestic needs and become energy independent,
World of low oil prices might hurt USA but also benefit it. Sub 20 dollar prices will definetely hurt OPEC nations (and OPEC observer nations) even more causing most of them to become even more unstable and even destroy oil production capacaties in some of them during upcoming turmoil.
Welcome to the world of 15-20 dollar oil. Even if United Stated and Europe begin what Milton Friedman called "helicopter money" policy, it will not save rest of the world.
End of an era is upon us my friends. Welcome to the rearing 20's
Markets scare and there is something to be afraid ofOn Monday, the markets were finally really scared. The coronavirus epidemic is becoming global, and the economic consequences are increasingly threatening. Every day, China's downtime literally increases the problem exponentially.
Actually, some analysts are already talking about the critical level of problems and damage. For example, a survey of managers of more than 1,500 Chinese small and medium enterprises (small and medium enterprises accounted for 99.8% of all companies registered in China and 79.4% of all employees work in them) showed that 85% of them will use up all their cash reserves in 3 months. But this is a potential threat. As for the real ones (that is, the damage that has already been done), 50% of respondents said that an outbreak of coronavirus will reduce their annual profit by at least 50%.
And according to the latest Dun & Bradstreet research from the list of Fortune 1000 companies, the main supplier is China for 163 companies, and for 938 China is a second-tier supplier, that is, their main supplier depends on supplies from China.
Thus, the level of dependence of the world economy on China is critical - about 94% (!). Accordingly, the problems will increase like a snowball. And lowering Apple’s forecasts last week will seem like an innocent joke compared to what the global economy can really expect. In the best case, corporations will sag strongly in profits, and in the worst, they will greatly sag in income.
Not surprisingly, the Fear Index (VIX) showed 50% growth during the day. It is rather surprising that he has not grown recently. And the gold maximums in the region of 1700 - this is not all that the asset wanted to say on this subject, and sales on the global stock markets by and large just started.
The yield on thirty US Treasury bonds, meanwhile, reached a historic low. Which, in general, explains why the dollar has recently felt so confident in the foreign exchange market.
Our basic positions today are unchanged: we are looking for points for buying gold (but given the strong oversoldness of the asset, we are doing this conservatively and with obligatory stops), we sell oil, we sell EURUSD, we buy GBPUSD, we sell USDJPY with small stops.
Now or never week for capitalism. Here we come to a corner. I think this week will be very important for all stock markets in the world. If it breaks this cup & handle, no worries about expected economical fall. But, what if it doesn't break?
Let's wait and see.
The world is on the brink of a recession & the US back-pedaledFinancial markets faced a sharp surge in concern. The Fear Index (VIX) soared (+30%). The Argentine Peso lost the same amount of its value yesterday. It is all about the populists in Argentina. Well, it is quite interesting how many times you need to fail again and again to understand one thing - that is a bad idea. Tsipras and Greece again on the brink of default. Chavez and Venezuela. Johnson and the UK leave the EU. Trump and the USA wage war against the whole world.
Government of change in Italy and yellow vests in France, etc. - The list could be made even longer. But there is only one common denominator - the populists and the consequences that the country's economy pays for.
Therefore, the financial markets reaction to the news from Argentina is understandable. We know how this is going to end., preferring to discount in advance.
Not surprisingly, gold prices soared. Despite such a rapid asset value growth, we were waiting for a correction in gold this week, just needed a reason To.
Trump delays China duties. The duties delayed until Dec. 15. This is without a doubt a serious conciliatory step on the part of the United States. So, sales of gold today, in our opinion, are more than appropriate.
Returning to the world economy issue, triggered by a trade war. Singapore's GDP growth for 2019 to come in at 2% to 0.5%. The economy of Singapore, with its specifics, is almost ideally fit to be an early indicator of the world economy state. So the signal we have is alarming. Take for example yesterday’s data from the EU. The ZEW Institute's expectations index in August fell to minus 43.6 points. This is almost two times worse than the July value (minus 20.3) the lowest mark since 2011.
We continue to expect a decline in the dollar value. Logically, dollar devaluation is the only thing that could save the US economy from recessionary processes and keep Trump. So we recommend looking for points to sell the dollar.
First of all, we recommend selling it against the British pound, which yesterday unexpectedly received support from the UK labor market data: employment in June grew by + 115K (expected plus 60 K).
About the macroeconomic data, the block of inflation statistics from the UK will be published today. As well as GDP in the Eurozone.
Beware the biggest bubble of all times! Part 2Ray Dalio made a post about how and why he thinks we are going towards a paradigm shift.
What I know is this bubble is going to violently collapse and it will be biblical.
Jeff Besos is already planning his way off this planet.
What I heard is every rich person was planning how he will manage his bunker, security guards etc, OR ways off the planet.
The end of the world is coming. This stupid over-consumption uber inflation money printing bubble is going to explode into a giant nuclear firework.
I don't know when it is coming but people are preparing, and it now appears imminent. Not something that will happen in "a long time" but in our lifetimes, in the next 5 years even.
So for this occasion I am making my regular end of the world post.
You got such clear signs that we are at the peak:
Cryptocurrencies...
IPOs go up 750% in 3 days...
(All going to zero <3)
There is talk around gold but isn't the price at historical highs even inflation adjusted?
I do not know enough about it to comment and I am not interested in researching it.
The madness is not ending. Good, the more they push the bubble the faster the end will come.
Make it explode! In the past century the economy/world has had a paradigm shift, and of course no one notices it, if things have been a certain way their whole life they view it as "normal". Totally unable to think outside of the box or get in other people shoes, totally unable to understand how anything came to be...
"A great point makes is that paradigms -- by definition -- are things that have gone on for long enough that people think they will never end. He touches on examples like debt driving asset prices higher and low volatility leading to high volatility."
End the FED make something new and also a new US currency and a new world currency (I guess the world currency can be gold, better than a country currency btw the USD became the world standard because the US scammed every one the only reason it was it was because it was pegged to gold before they removed that, litteral scam, ye the world won't fall for the same trick a second time right?)
The debt cycle system/paradigm I think could work but gee they pushed it so much.
Just greedy idiots. They start a scam that cannot last forever, just their whole lives, who cares what happens next.
All reported once I get out of the simulation. Reeeeport!
Same with energy consumption etc. Human nature: obsessed with reproduction like rabbits, 0 care for the future only short sighted. Perfectly logical.
Every one for themselves when this Titanic sinks. The transition won't be nice and smooth.
I will be very stupid with absolutely nothing been thinken off, nothing prepared, as usual.
Also some political unrest wars / civil wars etc.
I really hope it happens soon so we can be done with it. I hate suspense. The faster a change is made the smoother the transition will be.
So that means less fireworks. I do not have a personal home on the moon or mars so I would rather avoid big fireworks :( Otherwise would enjoy it.
This is the log chart by the way:
BOOM!
GOLD: week13Hi Guys,
at the end of week12 price exited the distribution channel started in week9 and dived from 200SMA to built what IMHO is a short term support just a little bit above 1285 with 50SMA pushing down and stopping the pullback right at 1300. The pull back may extend into the 200SMA following divergence with RSI on Friday but only if 50SMA is crossed and re-tested for the upside during week13. AToW it is not the right time to enter such a move yet though. Plus, I don't see it happening. However need to be prepared.
If 1280 do not hold next stop may be 1265.
Let's wait and be patient.
I don't feel confortable entering any trade on Monday. I am sorry. Gold maybe still be looking to push for the bottom of the handle as referred to in the related ideas linked below. Lol
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
A long depression, the rise of facism, a new Kondratiev cycleMost of the important points are in the chart.
** I am not saying I WANT this to happen, I am saying there is a pretty damn high probability it happens.
Here are a few more charts:
1929 btw, which I already posted
The socioeconomic stuff:
Germany economy in 1926 - 1938
If you are not under 25, you should hang out with people 15-20, they are let's say, just a little racist, they feel they are getting bullied and getting blamed for everything and hated and dicriminated against while being called privileged and are tired of it (again, not my opinion, just how people think). Might be my opinion in 10 years thought, I'm just here to make money, not my problem, I don't care about all this stupidity, you hooman simian beasts sort out your little issues between each other.
Everything is all primed for a big depression and a big rise in facism. Angela Merkel is 64 years old. She won't be around telling people what they should do or think forever.
I still expect the stock market to possibly go up by the start of next year, to 30-35k points, but for 2020-2030 all I see is a recession. I will keep a bear bias whenever I want to swing trade. Only short, never long. I will day trade long at major support levels.
Value investor Phil Town is making a video about Stock Market crashes live in 2 hours, I cannot link it here so I linked it on twitter (you can find it easilly on YT).
