The best opportunity is when crude oil falls
💡Message Strategy
Crude oil futures fell in the European session on Monday (June 16), giving up earlier gains, as a new round of hostilities between Israel and Iran had limited impact on oil production and exports.
WTI briefly rebounded to $77.49, close to last week's high, which was also our second profit target, but failed to break through the key resistance level near $78.09.
Oil prices surged 7% on Friday, driven by geopolitical risks, pushing crude to its highest level since January. However, Monday's reversal reflected the lack of immediate threats to supply routes, especially the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
If Iran's production drops sharply due to the conflict, the global oil supply buffer will be quickly exhausted and oil prices may usher in a new round of surges. Faced with this complex situation, investors, oil-producing countries and consumers need to be prepared to meet the possible energy storm.
This is also the reason why we repeatedly emphasize that crude oil should be long when it falls. We can foresee its upward momentum, and the pullback is only in a moment without any signs.
📊Technical aspects
The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil continued to fluctuate upward, and the price near 74 was tested. The moving average system relies on the bullish arrangement of oil prices, and the short-term objective trend direction remains upward.
In the morning, the oil price hit a new high near 75.30, and then fell back and closed with a negative real candlestick. The short-term momentum is still bullish, and it is expected that the trend of crude oil will continue to maintain a high-level oscillating upward rhythm.
💰 Strategy Package
Long Position:69.50-70.50
The first target is around 73.00
The second target is around 75.00
WTI
Crude Oil Challenges 2-Year ChannelAmid rising summer demand, an inverted head and shoulders breakout from oversold 2020 levels, and the recent outbreak of war between Israel and Iran, crude oil has tested the upper boundary of the declining channel originating from the 2022 highs. This test comes as supply risks for the coming month intensify.
This upper boundary aligns with the $77 resistance level. A confirmed breakout and sustained hold above this level could shift momentum more decisively to the bullish side, potentially paving the way for a retest of the $80 and $83.50 levels.
On the downside, if oil fails to maintain its gains and resumes a pullback, key support zones are located around $69, $66, and $64, reestablishing bearish dominance within the channel.
— Razan Hilal, CMT
WTI rebounds from key support as Middle East tensions intensifyThe latest escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran initially didn't cause much panic in the oil market. After spiking initially to an overnight high of $75.70, WTI has since been on a decline, before hitting a low so far of $68.50. That represents a 9.5% drop from the overnight high, which is massive. Investors have been pricing out the risk of of oil supplies being meaningfully impacted. But the latest air strikes on Tehran and Israel declaring that it had "full aerial operational control" over Tehran means tension are rising another bombardment of Tel Aviv was most likely on the agenda for Iran. Oil has been bouncing back as a result. So far, it hasn't impacted equities, with major US indices remaining near their session highs. But will that change if oil extends it recovery?
Key support at $68.60 has been defended as we can see on the hourly chart. $70.00/$70.10 is now reclaimed, which is a bullish sign. Resistance is seen around $72.20. Above that, $73.00 will be in focus.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
WTI - ANALYSIS BUY AREA This week the ongoing conflict seems to bring more uptrend to this commodity
I believe that the last broken resistance now turning support at 67.300 will be tested prior to the OIL raising again
If the conflict doesn’t end and we don’t have a ceasefire we could see this commodity running to the 78.000 and 82.000 levels
WTI(20250616)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Trump: The United States may still intervene in the Iran-Israel conflict. If Iran launches an attack on the United States, the United States will "fight back with all its strength on an unprecedented scale." Iran and Israel should reach an agreement.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
71.11
Support and resistance levels:
78.59
75.79
73.98
68.24
66.43
63.64
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 73.98, consider buying in, the first target price is 75.79
If the price breaks through 71.11, consider selling in, the first target price is 68.24
WTI Oil H1 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 71.83 which is a multi-swing-low support.
Stop loss is at 68.50 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 77.60 which is a swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
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Israel VS Iran War: Oil Spike!Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated dramatically, with both nations engaging in direct military strikes. Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, missile factories, and military personnel. In response, Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Israel, hitting Tel Aviv and wounding civilians
The conflict stems from long-standing hostilities, particularly over Iran’s nuclear program, which Israel views as an existential threat. The situation has drawn international attention, with the United States distancing itself from Israel’s actions while maintaining strategic interests in the region.
The escalation has raised concerns about a wider regional war, with analysts warning of unintended consequences and further retaliation. The global markets have also reacted, with oil prices surging amid uncertainty.
Israel creates a risk-off environmentThe current geopolitical tensions continue to escalate and this is creating a risk-off environment, forcing investors to worry. Let's dig in.
MARKETSCOM:OIL
TVC:USOIL
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
Chasing Oil Spikes? How Geopolitics Can Wreck SetupsOil prices surged over 12% in Asia on Middle East headlines, sparking a surge of volatility across safe-haven currencies and stock market futures during thin trade.
It felt like a good time to provide food for thought to newer traders looking to chase these moves, highlight the mockery geopolitics can make of technical analysis with recent examples, and provide a filter for when the waters may be safer to reenter.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
WTI Oil D1 | Potential bounce off a pullback supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 73.17 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 70.50 which is a level that lies underneath a a pullback support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 78.07 which is a a pullback resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
WTI(20250613)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 7 was 248,000, higher than the expected 240,000, the highest since the week of October 5, 2024. The monthly rate of the core PPI in the United States in May was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.30%. Traders once again fully priced in the Fed's two interest rate cuts this year.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
66.96
Support and resistance levels:
69.10
68.30
67.78
66.13
65.61
64.81
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 67.78, consider buying in, and the first target price is 68.30
If the price breaks through 66.96, consider selling in, and the first target price is 66.13
Iran tensions rise: a setup brewing for gold and oil Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran might fuel safe-haven demand for gold.
A break above $3,403 might open the door for a test of the May high at $3,437. However, price action over the last two sessions potentially indicates that buyers are reluctant to drive spot prices above $3,400.
At the same time, analysts are suggesting that oil could climb toward $120 if Israel takes military action against Iran. “I don’t want to say it’s imminent, but it looks like something that could very well happen,” President Trump said during a White House event.
Meanwhile, cooler-than-expected US CPI and PPI prints have potentially strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates by September, with a second cut possibly following before year-end.
Slowing Global Economy and Output Hikes Weigh on Brent OilBrent crude oil is holding steady around the $60 level, even after OPEC announced another 411,000 barrels per day increase in output, following similar hikes in May, June and smaller one in April. This latest adjustment comes at a time when global economic slowdown concerns are rising, making the decision a risky one. Although the main reason points to non-compliance from Kazakhstan and Iraq, some believe the United States may have played a role, possibly through pressure from Trump aimed at controlling inflation during the ongoing tariff hikes.
With several consecutive production increases now in place, a growing surplus is likely to develop over the second half of 2025. This would maintain downward pressure on oil prices if demand fails to keep pace. At the same time, the broader economic outlook is weakening. Recent manufacturing activity data from China, the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom all came in below 50, suggesting a faster rate of contraction. The presence of widespread tariffs is expected to continue weighing on business sentiment and consumer demand, potentially leading to rising unemployment and slowing growth.
In this environment, any short-term spikes in Brent and WTI prices are likely to remain opportunities to sell, unless there is a meaningful shift in underlying fundamentals. For a more detailed view of economic trends, please refer to the latest monthly report.
Brent crude has been in a steady downtrend since March of last year. While the price movement doesn't follow a perfect trend channel, the structure has generally held well. At the moment, Brent is hovering near the middle of this declining channel.
The former long-term support zone around $70 to $72. If prices move up toward this zone, it could present a fresh selling opportunity as long as the resistance holds. On the downside, the $60 level and the area just below it have formed a solid medium-term support, which has held up so far.
Still, oil bulls should be cautious around the $60 mark. Even though support looks strong for now, the overall direction of the trend and the broader fundamental backdrop suggest that this level could eventually break. Any long positions taken near current levels should factor in the potential for renewed downside pressure.
WTI OIL Massive rejection on the 1D MA200.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Down for over a year now and today its latest Bullish Leg hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since February 03 2025.
Unless we see a sustainable structured rise that turns it into a Support, the long-term bearish trend should prevail, and the market has already reacted to this with a strong rejection.
With the 1D RSI almost overbought (>70.00), being consistent with the last 3 major tops, we expect a gradual decline towards Support 1, as it happened on the January - February 2025 Bearish Leg.
Our Target is just above it at $55.50.
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WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 66.44 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 64.25 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 69.11 which is a pullback resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
WTI(20250612)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
① The EU hopes that the trade negotiations will be extended beyond the suspension period set by Trump. ② Bessant: As long as "sincerity" is shown in the negotiations, the Trump administration is willing to extend the current 90-day tariff suspension period beyond July 9. ③ Trump will hold multiple bilateral talks during the G7 summit. ④ The total customs revenue of the United States in May reached a record high of US$23 billion, an increase of nearly four times year-on-year. ⑤ Lutnick: One deal after another will be reached.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
66.02
Support and resistance levels:
69.56
68.23
67.38
64.66
63.80
62.47
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 67.38, consider buying in, and the first target price is 68.23
If the price breaks through 66.02, consider selling in, and the first target price is 64.66
GME COLLAPSE - NET SELLOFF - MARKET ANALYSISGameStop (GME) is dropping in after-hours trading following its $1.3 billion convertible senior notes offering, which investors see as potential dilution. Similarly, Cloudflare (NET) is also falling due to concerns over its $1.75 billion convertible debt offering, which could impact shareholder value.
On the flip side, Oracle (ORCL) surged after reporting strong Q4 earnings, with cloud infrastructure revenue expected to grow over 70% in fiscal 2026. This could provide a tailwind for the broader cloud sector.
The market’s pullback today was much needed, with many stocks retesting key breakout zones
WTI Crude Oil Stalls At Technical JunctureCrude oil has enjoyed a decent rally in recent weeks thanks to improved sentiment and OPEC+ scaling back production. Yet momentum turned against bulls on Tuesday, despite positive trade talks between the US and China. Today I discuss whether this could be a turning point for oil, or simply a bump in the road.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
RIG Mega Profits SecuredRIG is a high beta oil stock. We secured profits today and looking for another entry.
With the recent breakout and upside momentum in oil, this name caught a massive bid.
Crude oil has seen a sharp rise in just the last week and shaping up for a continuation move higher.
If this breakout holds energy stocks should continue to fly.
WTI has its first major resistance level coming up within 1% from current price.
Look for pullback buys in energy if oil continue to hold the inverse head & shoulder breakout.
WTI Cash Bearish Divergence BearishU.S. Iran tensions, U.S. China Talks, U.S. Production capacity down,Inflation high
Techincally: Volume surges, Divergence,
Targets: See the chart.
Entries: 3 approches(red Boxes)
I am short. I stay short. At current level (above 64 risk of being bullish is higher than being short).
Mange risk tightly.
WTI oil has approached a key area of resistanceThe technical picture of WTI oil shows that the commodity is now near one of its key downside resistance lines. Could we get a break, or trendline will remain intact?
Let's dig in!
TVC:USOIL
MARKETSCOM:OIL
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
USOIL Trade Setup: Watching for a Bullish Break After Pullback 📈 US OIL Trade Plan
Currently, USOIL is in a strong bullish trend 🔥 — price action has pushed into overextended territory, which opens the door for a potential pullback 🌀.
I'm watching for a WTI retracement into equilibrium, ideally aligning with the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci levels from the previous swing low to high 🔍📉. If price corrects into that zone and we find support, followed by a bullish break in market structure 💥 — that would be the confirmation I’m waiting for to consider a long position 🚀.
⚠️ Key Level to Watch: That structure break is the trigger — no confirmation, no trade 🧠.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and consult a professional before making trading decisions. Trade responsibly.