WTI-OIL
XTIUSD trade resistance zoneXTIUSD trade is near to break resistance level. If it’s break then it will go next resistance level then there will be chance trade will retrace back to low level.
WTI OIL Potential Market Top. Time to sell again? Risk involved.Those who follow me for a long time here and on Reddit know how bullish I've been on WTI since the rescue packages arrived in 2020. Since March 08 2021, though a new and very well structured Megaphone pattern has emerged that has allowed us to trade both directions with high efficiency. Most recently, since November 30 to be exact, I've started with buy trades on the expected rally to the Higher Highs trend-line of this Megaphone:
All targets during that leg have been accomplished and now WTI Oil is getting very close to the top of the pattern. Notice that during the previous rally of late August - late October 2021, this Top was projected by the Ichimoku squeeze. This squeeze is only 1 week away, so technically it is a valid strategy to start selling again. Now of course selling a long-term bullish market is a counter-trend move and involves higher risk than dip buying, so approach this strategy in accordance to your risk tolerance.
Technically, targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level or at least the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) is a viable option.
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WTI DIVERGENCEWTI rallied yesterday alongside the depreciation of the USD against EUR. But it appears that it is slowing down. The price of WTI appreciated by nearly 4 points, starting at 85.848 USD and reaching 89.72 USD.
The 9 day MA is still above 20 day MA, and the Upper and Lower Bands of the Bollinger Bands are wide open. But still, it is observable that the rally is slowing down, the bands are getting closer for the last 3 periods, while MACD's histogram is in decline for the past 6 periods. This might be an indicator that the bullish movement has stopped, or at least has slowed down significantly and the profit opportunities for the bears might be diminishing.
If the bullish movement continues, the price might try to surpass the Upper Band of the Bollinger Bands, which currently stays at 90.50, or, in the opposite scenario, it might try to attack it's previous low at 88.81
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Oil short ?Price has moved up for the past 6 weeks with no significant retracements. + Overly bullish psychology. Many predicting $100 oil.
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ALERT of oil 100$ if high breaks ,oil can start big + trend to 100$ area ,so after yesterday high break,looking for buy(low size) in 15min chart deep until 100$ with sl=last low or day low or 40pip (until 100$ dont pick sell signals
if you have old sells, 100% put hedge buystop on yesterday high
if you have open buy, dont close it soon, oil with zigzag and mini crash can go to 100$
note=74$ have powerfull buylimit ,put buylimit there too and hold it 3 month
note= Monitor AC 4 hour too on oil (if you are new on AC ,dont trade with it,you need watching it 8 mounth to find its secrets)
good luck , dont forget SL and very low size is market rule and 90% of this game
My current view on Crude Oil + explanation.Today, I will explain my perspective on one of the most relevant commodities in the world.
After the price broke the current support/resistance level, we observed a 26% correction, and currently, the price has broken the structure.
We can observe the same behavior in the previous bull runs from 2007 to 2009 and 2010 to 2011. The sequence is a Big structure followed by a breakout followed by a correction (green circle). Any entry above that with a stop loss below the structure provided a great setup to gain exposure to the massive movements we can see on the commodity.
So the plan for me is still the same. The structure happened, the correction is about to be completed (green circle), and after this week, I will be setting pending orders on a new local high with a stop loss below the green circle and a target on 109.00
IF everything goes as expected, we can think of a 150 -200 days movement, and a risk to reward ratio of 3 (that means that for every dollar I'm risking, I'm aiming to make 3)
The risk I will be using for this setup is 3% of my total trading account. This type of risk management is because my system has a low execution rate per month, around 1 setup a month. On other strategies with a much higher execution rate, I may use 1%.
What happens if the price keeps falling and never reaches your entry-level? You cancel your setup, that simple.
And remember if you have a stop loss, this is part of the game; catching great trades requires to be stopped out, so don't think that a take profit is a clean profit, and a stop loss is an absolute loss. You should evaluate your system after several executions (in my case, at this execution rate, after 10-15 setups, I can observe a 50% win rate and an average risk to reward ratio of 2. Remember, trade like a casino.
Thanks for reading!
Lonng for short term and Sell for long term
Basically, the demand for oil will increase after the risk of the market going off due to the risks and the corona crisis. As it was revealed in yesterday's calendar from the report of oil reserves for the United States, its consumption has been increasing sharply.
There is an increase in demand for oil for global oil.
But there is also an important issue to consider. If we are a little forward-looking, we should know that the efforts of the big economic countries are to curb inflation. What the US Federal Reserve is pursuing is a balance between the economic cycle and controlling inflation. Hence, the Federal Reserve is adopting Hawkish policies, as has been expected of the bank over the past few months, and it has. The Federal Reserve reports that in 2022 it will experience three stages of interest rate increases. So what we expect and anticipate is that with rising interest rates and declining liquidity, sales figures, corporate profitability and inflation will decrease. Retail sales will decrease and companies' revenue generations will decrease. As a result, what companies are doing is controlling costs and reducing production. Demand for oil will decrease as production declines, and what we will have next year is definitely a drop in world oil prices.
--WTI data
Short term WTI Using the fisher theory of ACD, i planned out my trade, however thankfully because i had Stops. I got out, and thankfully my account didnt blow. however predicting the market can always be hectic which is why i dont do that, i try to look for pullbacks, or swing trade. my main issue is holding my winning trades. Wednesday im going to be a bit bearish and lets see how that plays out.
WTI OIL is on track for the October $85.00 high.We have been following this bullish sequence on WTI Oil closely since the December 02 2021 bottom and so far is following our projection to a great extent:
As you see, the most recent pull-back (red arrow) was successfully made on the yellow Lower Highs trend-line and after the price recovered, it re-tested (green arrow) the line as a Support, which is so far giving a very strong green 1D candle today. As explained on my previous analyses, this is following the late August - late October bullish wave sequence to the Higher Highs trend-line of the long-term pattern.
You don't need to target all the way to the Higher Highs trend-line, the previous high of $85.00 is good enough to take profit as we've been mentioning since December. However if you wish to seek more risk, an potential indicator that may signal the next top, is the Ichimoku Cloud. During the last bullish wave of August - October, the market top was formed exactly on the Ichimoku squeeze. Currently the new squeeze is on February 10. Can this mean that we still have another month of uptrend? Possibly but always manage the risk carefully especially in the energy sector.
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oil : buystop on high buylimit above green arrow SL=0.50 $ tp= 84 wait time=avg 7 day
as predict before , oil reach fibo 61% and pull back down
technical say gold must go up (price is above sma200=looking for buy in deep)
ALERT =save on mind = on bad news if low break , gold easily can crash to 50$, so put SL and if oil goes under SMA200 daily , dont pick buy
WTI OIL Consolidation almost over. Buy the break-out.This is an update to a pattern on WTI that I've been working on since August:
As you see, the price did eventually rebound and right now is consolidating within the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) being the Support and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) being the Resistance. This is similar to the August 25 - September 10 consolidation, looking like another accumulation phase before a major rally.
Be ready to buy the break-out and target 76.30 on the short-term, which where the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) may act as a Resistance. After the (yellow) Lower Highs trend-line breaks, our attention shifts to the long-term target of $85.00.
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WTI BULLS 🐮WTI is showing solid signs that we could be moving into a bullish market in the current trading week.
We have already executed longs and have added to them, our take profit levels are already listed and we will determine based on short-term price action which level will be our profit target. Since we will compound the possible upside we might be getting out sooner as our profit could drastically increase due to compounding.
If we take into account price action, you will see that we have already formed a higher high and a higher low, while right now we are stuck in a little range, volume is increasing on WTI which suggest a move is coming today.
We are long until proven wrong.
✅CRUDE OIL NEXT LEVEL TO WATCH|LONG🚀
✅CRUDE OIL Is falling from the recent highs
In a bearish correction to retest
The strong key support level below
Once the price hits the level
I am expecting a strong rebound
And a move up to retest a local resistance above
LONG🚀
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Trade of The Week | Classic Breakout & Retest Trade 🔥🔥🔥
Hey traders,
As you know, for the last two weeks I was very bearish on OIL.
Spotting the overbought state of the market I was looking for a channel breakout trade.
Once the channel went broken, I was looking for a retest of its broken support to short.
The price formed a cute double top formation with a lower high retesting the broken trend line. My trigger was a bearish breakout of its neckline. Short position was opened on a retest.
Great & quick winner.
Did you catch this move?
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So far so goodFollowing on from my last post.
Heavily rejected after Megaphone pattern after a false break on 5th resistance touch.
Playing it safe so target for my exit is midway, roughly $82.94 but it could go all the way to $79. If it passes midway with some conviction I may only take half the trade out. Got to play it safe when oil is in a new paradigm like now.
BuyThe paper successfully tested a new height and is moving higher. Fundamental factors are on its side. It traded. I recommend to take with fast targets to 33.
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