WTI Symmetry, Could be funJust looking at this 2020 run up, might be a symmetry move. Threw a couple forks at it, I don't have a horse in this race and GeoPol is obviously the jockey here. Fork play on the Rulble/USD puts $0 on the table for Russia in the next couple months too. Gonna be a wild ride.
DYODD
WTI-OIL
Oil rising be ready to sellAs war drums are beating and WW3 may be on the verge of becoming a new reality, oil is ripping the faces off of people shorting it. It's also ripping your wallet apart. I expect a sell-off at some point if it continues at this rate but probably not before making new all-time highs above $150/ barrel. I expected XLE to get to $135 over the next 4-5 years but now it climbing very quickly ut I believe that is short-term. I may be taking some profits around the $100 mark as I expect government control to come in. I am not sure what that will look like yet but if it is a subsidized market whether cash in people's pockets or giving money to oil companies to keep the price low, that's inflation so I expect those stock prices to continue to rise. In the short term, you can hear the negative talk that may trash these stock prices which is exactly why I want to be taking profits at technical places and be ready to buy on these bottoms.
XLE oil WTI
OIL/USD Profit Taking UpdateOil reversed sharply from $116 to $108 when it was reported that Iran nuclear deal could bring Iran's Oil production back into the world supply if they give up Nuclear weapons.
We had initially talked about selling $120 but it began early and now is not simple to sell these levels which are much less oversold and is a different sort of trade to a quick smash and grab profit taking sell off.
easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
“Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party."
Short Opportunity on WTI OIL According to UPtrendline channel
Pullback by Resistance level
Divergence on CCI
Corrective Wave
Fibo retracement
Previous Weekly Analysis
WTI OIL Head and Shoulders top on the Megaphone?I haven't updated my WTI Oil thesis since the start of the month when I first started calling for a potential market top and a stop to buying activity.
Well this top may have been formed now as WTI has formed a Head and Shoulders pattern, right at the top (with the Head actually slightly above it) of the Megaphone pattern. Also that took place exactly on the Ichimoku Squeeze which was a marker for the prior Higher High of the Megaphone on October 25 2021. On top of all that, the 1D RSI got rejected, in fact made a Double Top rejection exactly on its 77.00 Resistance, which made the rejections of the two previous Higher Highs of the Megaphone on July 05 and October 25 2021.
I am expecting the price to start pulling back this week or by next the latest (depending of course on the Ukraine conflict) and correct towards the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the medium-term.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WTI Crude Oil | Daily Downside PressureHi everyone, It appears that WTI Crude looks ripe for a rotation towards the downside, the price has double topped and showing rejection along the peak of the ascending channel, alongside an indication of further overvaluation on the daily RSI. This is not financial advice just sharing with the community what I have been looking at, have a great day!
XTIUSD trade resistance zoneXTIUSD trade is near to break resistance level. If it’s break then it will go next resistance level then there will be chance trade will retrace back to low level.
WTI OIL Potential Market Top. Time to sell again? Risk involved.Those who follow me for a long time here and on Reddit know how bullish I've been on WTI since the rescue packages arrived in 2020. Since March 08 2021, though a new and very well structured Megaphone pattern has emerged that has allowed us to trade both directions with high efficiency. Most recently, since November 30 to be exact, I've started with buy trades on the expected rally to the Higher Highs trend-line of this Megaphone:
All targets during that leg have been accomplished and now WTI Oil is getting very close to the top of the pattern. Notice that during the previous rally of late August - late October 2021, this Top was projected by the Ichimoku squeeze. This squeeze is only 1 week away, so technically it is a valid strategy to start selling again. Now of course selling a long-term bullish market is a counter-trend move and involves higher risk than dip buying, so approach this strategy in accordance to your risk tolerance.
Technically, targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level or at least the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) is a viable option.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WTI DIVERGENCEWTI rallied yesterday alongside the depreciation of the USD against EUR. But it appears that it is slowing down. The price of WTI appreciated by nearly 4 points, starting at 85.848 USD and reaching 89.72 USD.
The 9 day MA is still above 20 day MA, and the Upper and Lower Bands of the Bollinger Bands are wide open. But still, it is observable that the rally is slowing down, the bands are getting closer for the last 3 periods, while MACD's histogram is in decline for the past 6 periods. This might be an indicator that the bullish movement has stopped, or at least has slowed down significantly and the profit opportunities for the bears might be diminishing.
If the bullish movement continues, the price might try to surpass the Upper Band of the Bollinger Bands, which currently stays at 90.50, or, in the opposite scenario, it might try to attack it's previous low at 88.81
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Oil short ?Price has moved up for the past 6 weeks with no significant retracements. + Overly bullish psychology. Many predicting $100 oil.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice.
The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
ALERT of oil 100$ if high breaks ,oil can start big + trend to 100$ area ,so after yesterday high break,looking for buy(low size) in 15min chart deep until 100$ with sl=last low or day low or 40pip (until 100$ dont pick sell signals
if you have old sells, 100% put hedge buystop on yesterday high
if you have open buy, dont close it soon, oil with zigzag and mini crash can go to 100$
note=74$ have powerfull buylimit ,put buylimit there too and hold it 3 month
note= Monitor AC 4 hour too on oil (if you are new on AC ,dont trade with it,you need watching it 8 mounth to find its secrets)
good luck , dont forget SL and very low size is market rule and 90% of this game
My current view on Crude Oil + explanation.Today, I will explain my perspective on one of the most relevant commodities in the world.
After the price broke the current support/resistance level, we observed a 26% correction, and currently, the price has broken the structure.
We can observe the same behavior in the previous bull runs from 2007 to 2009 and 2010 to 2011. The sequence is a Big structure followed by a breakout followed by a correction (green circle). Any entry above that with a stop loss below the structure provided a great setup to gain exposure to the massive movements we can see on the commodity.
So the plan for me is still the same. The structure happened, the correction is about to be completed (green circle), and after this week, I will be setting pending orders on a new local high with a stop loss below the green circle and a target on 109.00
IF everything goes as expected, we can think of a 150 -200 days movement, and a risk to reward ratio of 3 (that means that for every dollar I'm risking, I'm aiming to make 3)
The risk I will be using for this setup is 3% of my total trading account. This type of risk management is because my system has a low execution rate per month, around 1 setup a month. On other strategies with a much higher execution rate, I may use 1%.
What happens if the price keeps falling and never reaches your entry-level? You cancel your setup, that simple.
And remember if you have a stop loss, this is part of the game; catching great trades requires to be stopped out, so don't think that a take profit is a clean profit, and a stop loss is an absolute loss. You should evaluate your system after several executions (in my case, at this execution rate, after 10-15 setups, I can observe a 50% win rate and an average risk to reward ratio of 2. Remember, trade like a casino.
Thanks for reading!
Lonng for short term and Sell for long term
Basically, the demand for oil will increase after the risk of the market going off due to the risks and the corona crisis. As it was revealed in yesterday's calendar from the report of oil reserves for the United States, its consumption has been increasing sharply.
There is an increase in demand for oil for global oil.
But there is also an important issue to consider. If we are a little forward-looking, we should know that the efforts of the big economic countries are to curb inflation. What the US Federal Reserve is pursuing is a balance between the economic cycle and controlling inflation. Hence, the Federal Reserve is adopting Hawkish policies, as has been expected of the bank over the past few months, and it has. The Federal Reserve reports that in 2022 it will experience three stages of interest rate increases. So what we expect and anticipate is that with rising interest rates and declining liquidity, sales figures, corporate profitability and inflation will decrease. Retail sales will decrease and companies' revenue generations will decrease. As a result, what companies are doing is controlling costs and reducing production. Demand for oil will decrease as production declines, and what we will have next year is definitely a drop in world oil prices.
--WTI data
Short term WTI Using the fisher theory of ACD, i planned out my trade, however thankfully because i had Stops. I got out, and thankfully my account didnt blow. however predicting the market can always be hectic which is why i dont do that, i try to look for pullbacks, or swing trade. my main issue is holding my winning trades. Wednesday im going to be a bit bearish and lets see how that plays out.
WTI OIL is on track for the October $85.00 high.We have been following this bullish sequence on WTI Oil closely since the December 02 2021 bottom and so far is following our projection to a great extent:
As you see, the most recent pull-back (red arrow) was successfully made on the yellow Lower Highs trend-line and after the price recovered, it re-tested (green arrow) the line as a Support, which is so far giving a very strong green 1D candle today. As explained on my previous analyses, this is following the late August - late October bullish wave sequence to the Higher Highs trend-line of the long-term pattern.
You don't need to target all the way to the Higher Highs trend-line, the previous high of $85.00 is good enough to take profit as we've been mentioning since December. However if you wish to seek more risk, an potential indicator that may signal the next top, is the Ichimoku Cloud. During the last bullish wave of August - October, the market top was formed exactly on the Ichimoku squeeze. Currently the new squeeze is on February 10. Can this mean that we still have another month of uptrend? Possibly but always manage the risk carefully especially in the energy sector.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
oil : buystop on high buylimit above green arrow SL=0.50 $ tp= 84 wait time=avg 7 day
as predict before , oil reach fibo 61% and pull back down
technical say gold must go up (price is above sma200=looking for buy in deep)
ALERT =save on mind = on bad news if low break , gold easily can crash to 50$, so put SL and if oil goes under SMA200 daily , dont pick buy