WTI OIL Still Below Key Level! Bearish Bias! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
OIL is trading in an uptrend and is very bullish
Due to it being oversold previously
And also due to the positive fundamentals picture
However, it has reached the first major resistance level
And failed to break it during the first attemtp
While this level remains unbroken
I will be bearish biased but any short needs to be low risk
Because it goes counter to the trend
Any long position before the breakout is also unadvisable
Or permitted with lower risk
If this level gets broken
The next major resistance level for Oil is 76.5$
Sell!
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WTI-OIL
WTI OIL Buy SignalPattern: Fibonacci Channel on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price just hit the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). The region within the 4H MA50 and 4H MA100 (green trend-line) has been the most optimal buy level since November. Also the RSI is very close to its Support Zone.
Target: 69.00 (just below the 2.5 Fibonacci extension) and 72.00 (just below the 3.0 Fibonacci extension).
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Waiting for and sell opportunity on USOILOIL has been on an aggressive bull run since February and now have recently hit a structure level from 2019. We can see it has been push down to Friday's high and now heading back up. Setting up the fibo from the start of the bull run in Feb, the 50% level is a possible target area as it is the last level of structure. Will be looking for an entry once price re-enters the area of structure.
WTI (USOIL) IdeaHello Traders hope everyone are fine.
We see WTI prices in sideways movement (range $63.050 - $63.600) after oil prices hit a 13-month high on tighter supplies. The FED's assurance on ultra low rates, and the overall weakening USD also supports commodity prices . Oil prices see/saw additional support from the very rare winter storm in Texas which has caused the US to drop oil production by more than 10% (or more than 1 million bpd) during the last week.
The weather improved significantly now, but it will take time for the oil industry and refineries to catch up. The additional cuts from Saudi Arabia continue to keep supply and demand in balance before the OPEC+ is meeting again March 4.
I expect the group to only discuss a very modest easing of oil supply curbs to maintain oil's current path (towards $70/barrel). Additional US fiscal stimulus, the improving market sentiment, the positive perfomance of the equity markets (in particular the heavy industry) and of course rising hopes of international travel to return H2 2021 will further support oil prices.
WTI is currently close to its (current) bottom range and will try again to push through $64 later this week.
I am doing this work to help people like you to get a share from the markets. Hope you like it and happy trading to you all. :)
💡WTI . Weekly Technical Analysis UpdateMidterm forecast:
51.60 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI uptrend #1 is not broken, bullish wave in price would continue.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 51.60 on 02/01/2021, so more gains to resistance(s) 63.10, 66.50, 72.55 and more heights is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 79.
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WTI OIL Wait for a 4H MA50 test before enteringPattern: Channel Up & Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Buy once contact is made again with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Target: 60.00 (top of the Channel).
Most recent WTI idea:
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WTI Short / Time for a bear pullback?Hey all and happy Monday!
WTI has given us plenty of trades over the last week since it entered is range, we made money selling and buying... but we think there could be a bigger bear move soon, hence we are short.
Even tough we might have a bullish continuation on WTI's 1D chart, we see good signs of a bearish pullback, which is just enough for us to make a decent profit and turn this Monday into a Moneyday!
The reasons for selling are all listed in the charts, keep in mind they come from our system, see our signature for more information.
I wish you luck, but at the same time I want to remind you that you make your own luck in trading!
WTI Crude Oil above key area looking for 2019 highs $WTI WTI Crude Oil above key area looking for 2019 highs $WTI, above key level of the $50 level, could have possible already put in the low at $47 for 2021. The last time in traded above this level is stayed in a range as highlighted in the blue range and was very profitable to buy this level every time it his this level until it eventually gave in the 2020 covid crash. Would assume this will be an area of interest to buy at for a retest to get long. TVC:USOIL
Crude Oil Cementing A Strong Support LevelCrude oil kickstarted 2021 with a rally, breaking above $50 per barrel. This rally came after the announcement by OPEC leader Saudi Arabia that they will be volunteering to cut oil production by 1 million barrels-per-day (bpd) in February and March. Most of the other OPEC+ members will be holding their production level unchanged while Russia and Kazakhstan will be allowed to increase production by a combined 75,000 bpd. Together with a couple of other reasons, crude oil price may have found itself a strong support at the 50 level for now.
Surplus issue temporarily resolved
Throughout the OPEC+ meeting, Russia and Kazakhstan have been pushing for a continued increase in oil production by 500,000 bpd for February, just as how the previous meeting back in December had concluded. However, the advisory OPEC+ joint ministerial committee highlighted that the recovery of oil demand this year may be negatively impacted as lockdown and other restriction measures were imposed in many countries in an effort to contain the virus. To make matter worse, a new strain of the COVID-19 virus was found and is expected to be up to 70% more transmissible than the original strain. As a result, measures to curb the spreading of the virus may be extended for a longer period of time and so an increase in production right now may lead to the piling up of oil supply that may incur more storage costs. Nonetheless, the voluntary cut by Saudi will most likely prevent the problem of oversupply from happening, relieving the downward pressure on oil prices.
Dollar weakness to persists
With the inauguration of Joe Biden as the next President of the United States, the U.S. dollar may continue to remain weak in the short run. This is mainly due to Biden’s tax policy, which is not very business-friendly since he is looking to increase corporate tax rate and also impose a corporate minimum tax to companies with more than $100 million in net income. And now that the Democratic Party has full control of Congress, nothing will stand in the way of the Biden Administration, making it easier for the administration to carry out any policies they deem fit.
Rising tensions in the Middle East
On Monday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps detained a South Korean oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz that was headed to the United Arab Emirates from Saudi Arabia. Iran claimed that it has at least $7 billion of funds from oil sales trapped in South Korea that it needs for purchasing of goods like the COVID-19 vaccine. This incident has raised the question of security when transporting oil along the Gulf that can lead to uncertainty, thus potentially affecting the supply of oil.
WTI Crude - Time for a correction?Oil prices have been on a fantastic run since early November and with reports emerging of a deal between OPEC+ members on production in February, they've been given another bump today, up close to 4% at the time of writing.
That leaves WTI trading just shy of $50 once again, after running into resistance around here on Monday. A deal to keep output steady is undoubtedly good news for oil prices but how much is already priced in? Does crude have a breakout above $50 in it?
The momentum indicators suggest this will be very challenging. They've already been posting lower highs on the daily chart since mid-December, after which price has made new highs. A lot of positive news is priced into oil prices now and this wave we're going through is looking far more severe than many anticipated due to new strains.
The near-term risks may be to the downside in oil, although with OPEC+ monitoring the situation so closely and, importantly, acting when necessary with high compliance, any slip in prices may be limited to just a small correction. The outlook is much improved for oil prices, producers just need to navigate cautiously for a few more months.
A break of yesterday's lows may signal the corrective move is underway, with the real test then coming around $46, where the 200 SMA meets support from mid-to-late December.
💡WTI . Weekly Technical Analysis UpdateMidterm forecast:
43.75 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI uptrend #1 is not broken, bullish wave in price would continue.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 40.20 on 11/13/2020, so more gains to resistance(s) 50.70, 54.75, 57.80 and more heights is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 74.
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Uptrend in CADJPYWe are currently in a very good looking uptrend that is gathering strength to continue. The last part of this trend starts from the middle of the previous month. Current levels are important, where the price meets resistance from the daily chart.
However, it seems that there will be strength to break and reach the following resistances:
81.85
82.05
82.27
You can enter now or wait for it to break. In both cases, the idea is fail by breaking the previous bottom.
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WTI OIL will go Up from support. Buy!
Hello, Traders!
OIL is having a slight pullback after the major level breakout
And it might fall a bit more still
However, Just as I wrote in my previous analysis
The important resistance level was broken
Thus I expect oil to go Up from the support confluence
And retest the rising channel resistance
Long from support
Buy!
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WTI: November 2020Hi Guys,
November is ending today and it has been a positive month for WTI unless today's meeting by OPEC+ ruins the party.
Since OPEC+ mended their differencies back in April and started implementing drastic production cuts, WTI climbed back above the blue horizontal line and was supported above it before running again this month.
SMA points down but still well above latest candlestick.
Sentiment testing its medium point of equilibrium in conjunction with price testing violet horizontal line which represents previous level of support now became resistence.
I'd look for a contact with descending bearish pressure represented by SMA and red trendlines. However NOT now. Maybe in January or February next year.
It also depends on how it unfolds the pattern in the circle which will mainly depend on OPEC+ decisions.
Let's wait for the outcome of OPEC+ meeting.
Please share your views and comments below.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Cozzamara
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumstances.
WTI: what's happening in the circle?Hi Guys,
watch out for news from OPEC+
The pattern in the circle may be the beginning of a flag or a pennant.
Following the divergence with sentiment (RSI) between S2, S3 and S4, price started a pullback above Saudi-Russia Oil Price War levels of 43.830 where it formed the pattern inside the circle.
So far the pullback is made of an impulse(1), a correction(2), an impulse(3), a correction(4) and another impulse that took it above 43.830.
What is going to be its next move?
Please share your views and comments below.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Cozzamara
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumstances.
its all about opec+ meeting outcome, either 48 or 40!I can see that wave 5 in the chart is equal in length exactly on the January Future contract to W3, this is a common length for W5, W1 is shorter than both so it fulfils the conditions, breaking above 46.26 will signal upward continuation up to 47.9 which is 262% Fib ret of W4 and we will have an extended W5, also this level will see huge resistance because Brent will need to surpass the 50$ level, which can only be possible if OPEC introduced further cuts, not only maintain the the current 7mbpd cut. IMO introducing further cuts is a far fetch. maintaining the current level of cuts will probably result in a brief rally where after a correction will be due, minimum level of correction is 43.3 and 40 is reasonable TGT at 50% Fib or 38.5$ if it corrected to 61.8% level.
WTI & Dow Jones Shorts (pending orders for day trades)We're looking to get into short positions on WTI and US30 (down jones), our system indicates that we could see price action move lower once the levels listed (fibonacci retracement) are reached.
Trades can fail, and many times they do, so trade at your own risk, but if we could give you a tip it would be this:
Start using structured position sizing, the way we do it is expose our account at a rate of 10% per trade idea, here is what this means > if our balance is 1,000, 10% of that would be 0.10 lots, get it? Dont risk 10%, open 10% of the balance/equity and this way you can manage your risks!
Good luck!