WTI Crude Oil above key area looking for 2019 highs $WTI WTI Crude Oil above key area looking for 2019 highs $WTI, above key level of the $50 level, could have possible already put in the low at $47 for 2021. The last time in traded above this level is stayed in a range as highlighted in the blue range and was very profitable to buy this level every time it his this level until it eventually gave in the 2020 covid crash. Would assume this will be an area of interest to buy at for a retest to get long. TVC:USOIL
WTI-OIL
Crude Oil Cementing A Strong Support LevelCrude oil kickstarted 2021 with a rally, breaking above $50 per barrel. This rally came after the announcement by OPEC leader Saudi Arabia that they will be volunteering to cut oil production by 1 million barrels-per-day (bpd) in February and March. Most of the other OPEC+ members will be holding their production level unchanged while Russia and Kazakhstan will be allowed to increase production by a combined 75,000 bpd. Together with a couple of other reasons, crude oil price may have found itself a strong support at the 50 level for now.
Surplus issue temporarily resolved
Throughout the OPEC+ meeting, Russia and Kazakhstan have been pushing for a continued increase in oil production by 500,000 bpd for February, just as how the previous meeting back in December had concluded. However, the advisory OPEC+ joint ministerial committee highlighted that the recovery of oil demand this year may be negatively impacted as lockdown and other restriction measures were imposed in many countries in an effort to contain the virus. To make matter worse, a new strain of the COVID-19 virus was found and is expected to be up to 70% more transmissible than the original strain. As a result, measures to curb the spreading of the virus may be extended for a longer period of time and so an increase in production right now may lead to the piling up of oil supply that may incur more storage costs. Nonetheless, the voluntary cut by Saudi will most likely prevent the problem of oversupply from happening, relieving the downward pressure on oil prices.
Dollar weakness to persists
With the inauguration of Joe Biden as the next President of the United States, the U.S. dollar may continue to remain weak in the short run. This is mainly due to Biden’s tax policy, which is not very business-friendly since he is looking to increase corporate tax rate and also impose a corporate minimum tax to companies with more than $100 million in net income. And now that the Democratic Party has full control of Congress, nothing will stand in the way of the Biden Administration, making it easier for the administration to carry out any policies they deem fit.
Rising tensions in the Middle East
On Monday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps detained a South Korean oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz that was headed to the United Arab Emirates from Saudi Arabia. Iran claimed that it has at least $7 billion of funds from oil sales trapped in South Korea that it needs for purchasing of goods like the COVID-19 vaccine. This incident has raised the question of security when transporting oil along the Gulf that can lead to uncertainty, thus potentially affecting the supply of oil.
WTI Crude - Time for a correction?Oil prices have been on a fantastic run since early November and with reports emerging of a deal between OPEC+ members on production in February, they've been given another bump today, up close to 4% at the time of writing.
That leaves WTI trading just shy of $50 once again, after running into resistance around here on Monday. A deal to keep output steady is undoubtedly good news for oil prices but how much is already priced in? Does crude have a breakout above $50 in it?
The momentum indicators suggest this will be very challenging. They've already been posting lower highs on the daily chart since mid-December, after which price has made new highs. A lot of positive news is priced into oil prices now and this wave we're going through is looking far more severe than many anticipated due to new strains.
The near-term risks may be to the downside in oil, although with OPEC+ monitoring the situation so closely and, importantly, acting when necessary with high compliance, any slip in prices may be limited to just a small correction. The outlook is much improved for oil prices, producers just need to navigate cautiously for a few more months.
A break of yesterday's lows may signal the corrective move is underway, with the real test then coming around $46, where the 200 SMA meets support from mid-to-late December.
💡WTI . Weekly Technical Analysis UpdateMidterm forecast:
43.75 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI uptrend #1 is not broken, bullish wave in price would continue.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 40.20 on 11/13/2020, so more gains to resistance(s) 50.70, 54.75, 57.80 and more heights is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 74.
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Uptrend in CADJPYWe are currently in a very good looking uptrend that is gathering strength to continue. The last part of this trend starts from the middle of the previous month. Current levels are important, where the price meets resistance from the daily chart.
However, it seems that there will be strength to break and reach the following resistances:
81.85
82.05
82.27
You can enter now or wait for it to break. In both cases, the idea is fail by breaking the previous bottom.
If you have questions about how to trade this or another situation, contact us!
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WTI OIL will go Up from support. Buy!
Hello, Traders!
OIL is having a slight pullback after the major level breakout
And it might fall a bit more still
However, Just as I wrote in my previous analysis
The important resistance level was broken
Thus I expect oil to go Up from the support confluence
And retest the rising channel resistance
Long from support
Buy!
Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading!
See other ideas below too!
WTI: November 2020Hi Guys,
November is ending today and it has been a positive month for WTI unless today's meeting by OPEC+ ruins the party.
Since OPEC+ mended their differencies back in April and started implementing drastic production cuts, WTI climbed back above the blue horizontal line and was supported above it before running again this month.
SMA points down but still well above latest candlestick.
Sentiment testing its medium point of equilibrium in conjunction with price testing violet horizontal line which represents previous level of support now became resistence.
I'd look for a contact with descending bearish pressure represented by SMA and red trendlines. However NOT now. Maybe in January or February next year.
It also depends on how it unfolds the pattern in the circle which will mainly depend on OPEC+ decisions.
Let's wait for the outcome of OPEC+ meeting.
Please share your views and comments below.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Cozzamara
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumstances.
WTI: what's happening in the circle?Hi Guys,
watch out for news from OPEC+
The pattern in the circle may be the beginning of a flag or a pennant.
Following the divergence with sentiment (RSI) between S2, S3 and S4, price started a pullback above Saudi-Russia Oil Price War levels of 43.830 where it formed the pattern inside the circle.
So far the pullback is made of an impulse(1), a correction(2), an impulse(3), a correction(4) and another impulse that took it above 43.830.
What is going to be its next move?
Please share your views and comments below.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Cozzamara
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumstances.
its all about opec+ meeting outcome, either 48 or 40!I can see that wave 5 in the chart is equal in length exactly on the January Future contract to W3, this is a common length for W5, W1 is shorter than both so it fulfils the conditions, breaking above 46.26 will signal upward continuation up to 47.9 which is 262% Fib ret of W4 and we will have an extended W5, also this level will see huge resistance because Brent will need to surpass the 50$ level, which can only be possible if OPEC introduced further cuts, not only maintain the the current 7mbpd cut. IMO introducing further cuts is a far fetch. maintaining the current level of cuts will probably result in a brief rally where after a correction will be due, minimum level of correction is 43.3 and 40 is reasonable TGT at 50% Fib or 38.5$ if it corrected to 61.8% level.
WTI & Dow Jones Shorts (pending orders for day trades)We're looking to get into short positions on WTI and US30 (down jones), our system indicates that we could see price action move lower once the levels listed (fibonacci retracement) are reached.
Trades can fail, and many times they do, so trade at your own risk, but if we could give you a tip it would be this:
Start using structured position sizing, the way we do it is expose our account at a rate of 10% per trade idea, here is what this means > if our balance is 1,000, 10% of that would be 0.10 lots, get it? Dont risk 10%, open 10% of the balance/equity and this way you can manage your risks!
Good luck!
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Important Structure Breakout
New higher high higher close on WTI on a daily.
Now, 41.0 broken resistance turns to support, and from that bullish continuation is expected.
After a massive buying wave during the last two days, the market is relatively overbought and we may see a pullback first.
I would recommend buying strictly after a pullback.
Next goal for buyers is 43.25 (major daily resistance)
WTI close to boiling point - downside! US Oil has had an incredibly strong recovery since reaching negative territory back in April. It now seems we're running out of steam and levelling off, offering the potential of more downside. Following price action it now seems we're being squeezed into a flag pattern and approaching a boiling point (technical flag patterns have been proved to react well on both oil pairs).
I am favouring further downside to test previous low of $36.10 followed by $34.50 and finally $30.
Remember price may test higher levels before moving down so keep a long side bias available as well.
+50% from now? 🚀WTI on the rise!
After confirming our turnaround zone in yellow, oil is poised for higher prices. The end of wave 3 in green is expected in the area of $60. However, we do not want to see prices dipping below $38.45. Below this support line, chances accumulate that further correction is on the way, as the bears are gaining in strength. Should oil trade below $36.49 a barrel, our primary expectation is no longer valid. In this case, we see prices dropping to $30. All in all, we're at a major inflection point, and we need to break the indicated resistance zone to continue the upwards move. Watch the mentioned marks closely!
What are your expectations for WTI? Feel free to comment below!
WTI, Gap Has Been Filled, These Outcomes Possible Now!Hello Traders Investors And Community,
Welcome to this analysis where we are looking at WTI 12-hour timeframe perspective, the recent events, the current formational structure, and what we can expect the next times, WTI has recently successfully filled the gap at around 36 as expected, if you did not saw this analysis already I highly recommend you watch it by going on my account, now WTI has shown some important heavy volatile price action to the upside bouncing at the gap and resulting in an impulse to the upside. This is why it is important at the moment to assess if WTI manages to move higher in the structure or falls back to visit lower levels again in this case I detected all the important consideration and outcomes we should look at at the moment and it is important to not get overly speculative on the rally currently occurring as there are still some factors that can result into the reverse perspectives.
Looking at my chart you can watch the freshly established wave-count to the upside marked in red, this wave count will go on till there is resistance approached which WTI has at the rising resistance marked in blue, this is coming together with the horizontal resistance and building a coherent bearish cluster here marked in red where the possibility for an incoming pull-back is high, currently, it is not the highest possibility that WTI just shoots above this resistance, therefore, a first pullback is more likely which will happen till the next support marked in blue in my chart where WTI has some solid supports, overall this can be the origin to form the second major impulse to the upside, it has to be noted however that WTI really needs to hold this level and bounce there otherwise when falling below there will come lower levels within a high likelihood spectrum.
In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more market insight, good day to you, and all the best!
“Trading effectively is about assessing possibilities, not certainties.”
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.