WTI USOil 1h planA follow up to my recent post.
So America came out saying they're not going to escalate except for stronger sanctions and the Iranians seems to be calming down as well. How long this will last is anyone's guess. Both sides are probably planing their next move.
As a result we've seen oil pullback heavily over yesterday. The question now is how far.
We saw good volume kick in at the 59 price mark. My best guess is that hedges are starting to accumulate around this zone. We are currently forming a consolidation pattern. Not sure on the pattern just yet but it could form a flag. The closest support line would be the ascending trend line from the daily time frame. If they break this phase downward I'd like to see them react to that trend. (The height of consolidation also touches the line perfectly from a breakdown as shown.) I'm planing long entry's between the 57-58 price if they show bullish signs. If the current daily trend doesn't hold we could potentially slip back to the 50-54 range.
Any input would be much appreciated.
Good luck and happy hunting!
WTI-OIL
63.00 will set the tone in USOILUpward trend continues with limited movements in USOIL. After the retaliation of Iran last night, USOIL got hard reactions in upward direction and the movements continue above 62.50. 63.00 and 64.00 levels will decide whether the current buying movements will continue in the commodity. Additionally, if the movements exceed this level, 66.50 will be on our radar. If the commodity retreats, 62.50 and 61.70 will be our support levels.
ORBEX: Gold & Oil Soar on Iran's Military Retaliation!Iran retaliated against US with ballistic missiles instead of disrupting oil shipments, facing one enemy at a time as China is a big importer.
Gold and crude soared to fresh highs after Iran attacked a US military base in Iraq.
Oil gains, however, were discounted early, perhaps due to EIA’s later report, but gold remains bid near $1600/oz.
Watch our analyses for further technical insights and as we apply Elliott waves.
Trade safe
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
WTI (USOIL): Important Zone Just In Front Of Bulls
hey guys,
good day!!!
I have received very lovely comments after yesterday's post on gold
and many of you asked me to clarify the picture on WTI.
The first thing to consider is that we haven't seen a pullback for more than 1 month!
Slowly but surely bulls are still keeping pushing the market forward.
Yesterday the market has finally entered 64 - 67 decent supply zone
and we saw a strong rejection from it.
I believe that for many buyers it will be a profit-taking area so the chance to see a pullback is very high.
Pay close attention to the market within this area and try to catch a drop after a formation of some reversal pattern.
Talking about a long term perspective, the aforecited area is a decision zone for the market.
Being broken above it will expand the potential for buyers and continuation to 70 levels will be a highly likely scenario.
Being respected we can expect a reiteration of April's scenario.
I will post the update when I see a decent trading signal or change.
Please, like the idea and support it with like! Thank you :)
1 day WTI chartLooking at the 1 day WTI chart. I see that we did get a decent rise thanks to tension in the middle east. Things could get sticky folks. We are on the verge of war with Iran. Do I want a war? Hell no. But will I capitalize on oil if war is unavoidable? You better believe I will. If you dont take advantage of it others will.
Now I am the last person here that is hoping for a war with Iran. I have a few Iranian friends that dont want a war either and I like the Iranians I do know. But face the facts.. If war is coming we need to take advantage of what we can as traders. Rarely do we get any warning of something like this and wham... Here is a giant red flag that oil may be ready to rocket up. From what I am hearing war with Iran could drive oil to 150 a barrel.
In the Iraq war oil went well over 100 dollars a barrel. So this an entirely plausible scenario in my eyes. Iran will likely do what it can to avoid a head on collision with the US military. But I believe if things escalate much more Iran will resort to using mines in the straight or Hormuz which will undoubtedly effect oil world wide.
So who really benefits from higher oil prices? Well Iran would if they could find anyone to sell it to.... The US would benefit. Saudi Arabia would benefit along with any oil rich country that isnt under giant sanctions from the US (Venezuela, Iran etc) Which makes me wonder what the end game is here. Trump seemingly wants to keep oil prices down before the election to keep gas prices low for his base.
Now I cannot read Trumps mind. I cant tell you what Iran wants to gain from all this. I can tell you what I think. Iran wants US out of the middle east and US wants Iran to give in and follow the orders of the US govt. Neither sound very plausible to me without some sort of conflict.
We are seeing the prices rise already... Whether they continue to rise depends on a few key factors such as if cooler heads prevail. Both parties (US and Iran) seem to be hot heads. If you really want my opinion I think Trump and Irans supreme leader should go one on one... Steel cage match... Winner gets America :) What do you think???? Are you taking a position in oil????
ORBEX: US Air Strike Sends Oil and Gold UP!A US airstrike at the Bagdad airport killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani’s.
Not only this is going to increase geopolitical instability in the region but it also questions the legality of the President's decision as he acted without Congressional approval!
US-Iran relations are taking a sour turn early in the year following an “extremely dangerous” attack that could set off a war.
See how oil and gold have been affected so far and how they are likely to perform in the short-term.
Timestamps
WTI 3H 01:50
GOLD 3H 04:15
Trade safe
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
Going short on WTI againAn important thing to note with contraction fakeouts, if they are valid and work out, is that a vicious reversal usually follows.
Currently, price action came right back into the contraction and is testing the bottom layer of it, which could easily create a breakout. Later in the day we do get the US Crude Oil Inventories which could be the push the WTI bears :bear: need to start moving lower.
As you may notice WTI has strong fluctuations in price, most recently seen on the 18th of November and 29th of November.
The two main support areas right now are, 58,450 & 57.850, if we do go short again we would target these two levels.
Of course for the definite stop-loss area, we would want to target above the highest pattern high, which is 61.015 ( <-- higher than that price of course, maybe 61.200 or 61.300)
USOIL: Broadening wedgeThis is a great example of a broadening wedge that we took advantage of this week. COngrats to all that took this trade with us. Broadening wedges are hard to ind but hen they break it can have some significant and extensive price action to the prictable direction. This wa a +6% return on our CFD at the time of rollover.
Don't miss the great buy opportunity in USOILTrading suggestion:
. There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (56.22). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Technical analysis:
. USOIL is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected.
.The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 57.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 58.00
TP2= @ 60.95
TP3= @ 66.57
SL= Break below S2
WTI: Where To Sell???
October was phenomenally good for WTI oil trading.
My last target for the long trade is lying on 60 level.
Those who are looking for a short trade,
focus on 60 - 61 resistance area .
this area was respected multiple times by the market in the past
and, in my view, it is the safest zone to sell.
for now, it looks like bullish tendency will remain and buyers
will keep pushing the market to the resistance line of the rising channel .
the only minor resistance on their way will be 59.0,
we can expect a minor retracement from this level and continuation to the underlined zone.