WTI 8/9/2019 hourlywell we spiked a bit and we are above the hourly cloud which is a good thing if you work in the industry like I do. We are finding some resistance at the .5 fib around 54.65. The wicks touch there but the candles actually corrected to the .382 fib which is around 54.39. Oil is so much different than Bitcoin which is what I am used to charting. I have started developing more of an interest in the oil price lately as the line of work I am in is dependent upon oil prices. If oil is booming so am I. They recently cut our hours a bit here at work so I am trying to make sense of it by looking at the WTI chart. we seem to be in an uptrend for now but oil is going to be a bit volatile so long as this trade war keeps escalating. I guess I will have to start trading more to make up for the lost time at work. But like I always say... WTFDIK? We are trading at 54.05 US dollars.
WTI-OIL
oil, cl, day trading for Aug 9thlate into the overnight oil had a nice rise and is finding some volume at these levels so will look for further long if we remain above 52.91, we do have some resistance to watch out for on this long trade at 53.36 and 53.75 and above these levels the longs should have control heading into next week. A move down below 52.91 should see a test of the current lower levels, not sure all the way to the 50.54 but if it did then would start looking back to 45 area.
So starting idea for me will be to look long as long as we remain above the level mentioned.
WTI Oil: Medium term action plan.Oil has just tested today the 50.50 1W Support of the Descending Triangle (RSI = 39.101, MACD = -1.300, Highs/Lows = -3.3064). This creates the ideal medium term long entry towards the Triangle's potential Lower High at 56.00. The downside on this is the 42.50 1M Support, while the upside if the pattern breaks (above 61.00) is 66.66 and 74.00 on the long term.
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Bearish Potential on Soybeans by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION:
At the beggining of May, price started a strong bullish movement towards the Weekly Descending Trendline. Once it faced the zone, it could not consolidate above and the trend became weaker. Then started moving sideways and it has recently formed a Triangle Patter, which was broke downwards yesterday. We expect a downside move towards the Multiple Support Zones.
MULTI TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS:
-Daily:
-Weekly:
Market Overview | 02 AugustBy Andria Pichidi - August 2, 2019
It was another volatile day in the markets after Wednesday’s post FOMC gyrations. Stocks sold off in Asia overnight,with the Australian 10-year rate dropping nearly 12 bp, GER30 futures are down -1.8 bp, CAC 40 futures down -2.1% as fresh China-tariff threats from US President Trump spooked markets. US futures are also broadly lower, and the WTI future is trading at just USD 54.88 per barrel.
Trump Twitter announcing another 10% in tariffs will be imposed on an the remaining $300 bln in Chinese goods that haven’t already been hit. Trump has before announced tariffs only to subsequently reverse course, though the September-1 implementation date is before the next round of talks start. Also, the threatened new tariffs would hit consumers much harder than earlier tariffs have, which deliberately focused on industrial goods to minimise the impact on consumer goods.
Fears are that Trump’s China threat is a sign of a further escalation in global trade tensions and markets are nervous ahead of a scheduled announcement by the US President on EU trade today.
Fed funds futures have spiked in conjunction with the drop in yields and stocks, on the worries over increased trade tensions. The 2020 contracts are outperforming and have priced in almost 60 bps of additional easing this year, on top of yesterday’s 25 bp reduction. The market now sees about 80% risk for another 25 bp rate cut by the end of October (which also includes the September 17, 18 FOMC), and is about 75% of the way to pricing in a 1.625% December funds rate.
Oil Action: USOIL has been slammed lower in the aftermath of Trump’s tweet. The asset is down over 8% on the day, printing 7-week lows of $53.59, and down from pre-open highs near $57.85. The fresh tariffs will add further concerns to the global growth outlook, leading to demand destruction for crude oil. Currently it is trading at 54.80 however the decisive breakout yesterday below 2 months desceding tringle along with te break below July’s Support at 54.73, adds further negative bias into the medium term USOIL outlook and suggests the retest for years 2019 and 2018 lows, i.e. immeiate Support at $53, next at $50.60-$51.60 area ( 27.2 Fib. extension and June 2019 Support area) and latest the December 208 lows.
USDCAD tracked higher amid a 8% pull-back in crude prices.
Safe Havens
The development sent global stock markets tumbling, boosting the demand for safe havens, including the Japanese currency.
YEN: The Yen has rallied sharply amid fresh trade warring versus the underperforming Australian dollar while losing ground to the outperforming yen, and softening moderately in the case against the euro. The biggest mover has been AUDJPY, which plummeted be over 2% and reaching the lowest levels since the flash crash of early January. The cross is widely seen as a forex market barometer of global investor risk appetite, partly as the Australian dollar serves as a liquid currency market proxy on China. USDJPY, meanwhile, dove by over 1%, making a near 6-week low earlier Tokyo at 106.85. EURJPY and other yen crosses have seen similar price actions.
However as 107.20 (double bottom in July) was rejected from Support, the sharp decline for USDJPY erase bullish momentum spotted last week. The asset looks quite mixed as it retests once again year’s low. Volume decreases suggesting a possible trend reversal of the existing downtrend to the upside but on the other hand the 50-week EMA is sloping lower looking ready to cross below 200-week, suggesting further decline for the asset. Hence a confirmed strong close below 106.80 could open the doors towards January – March 2018 area, i.e. 105.25 – 106.20 area (latest weekly down fractal and Lower BB line).
There is now initial resistance at 107.70 and a further barrier to recovery at 108.00. However a spike up to these barrier could imply a correction on the sharp decline.
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WTI Oil: Dec-February fractal shows mid term potential for $74.Oil is replicating the December-February price action when the price again bottomed aggressively after an earlier market peak and then started rising gradually to the annual High. Common parameter is the Golden Cross on the 4H chart. We can assume that as long as the MA200 holds, the uptrend will be sustained. 1D is actually on strong bullish levels (RSI = 63.049) and 1W is about to break through its neutral barrier (RSI = 54.302, MACD = -0.860, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) into a medium term bullish trend towards $74.00.
WTI: Newton's Third LawHi Guys,
ANY ACTION LEAD TO A REACTION.
The basic principles of Newton's Third Law applied to WTI following Khashoggi's assassination on Oct 2, 2018.
Please also refer to the following post:
For additional infos about WTI please refer to the related ideas linked at the end of this post.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
WTI | A Sell Below $62.00 (Weekly)Last week's bearish candle that printed on WTI has caught my eye.
Firstly, the move higher early on in the week would have caught a lot of bullish trend traders off-guard.
If you switch to the daily timeframe, the picture is even bleaker for the bulls - that pin-bar on weekly looks like a good old fashioned blow off top on the daily.
So where to from here?
For me, I need to see price trading below $62 to initiate a short. If price just eats up last weeks range, drifting higher, that would make me do a full 180 and expect more upside.
Confused much?Oil of course is reacting to world trends. I don't need to cover the emotional roller coaster which is being presented in the world to you - you know what I am talking about.
Of course, this behavior becomes confusion in the charts.
Daily:
Trend: Bull
Consolidation: None
Single Renko Bullish box on 20-Jun
Both RSI and BSI haven't caught up yet to the positive trend yet.
Price Projection on the daily is for 65.15
Weekly:
Trend: VERY WEAK BEAR (Near the 21 and 55 MA but still below)
Consolidation: YES!!!!!!!
There is a four bar consolidation in place. 59.67(R)-50.63(S)
The last price projections before this week were very negative with: 45 and 36.04 as targets.
The weekly shows NO entry signs at this time (plenty on the daily however).