WTI: Newton's Third LawHi Guys,
ANY ACTION LEAD TO A REACTION.
The basic principles of Newton's Third Law applied to WTI following Khashoggi's assassination on Oct 2, 2018.
Please also refer to the following post:
For additional infos about WTI please refer to the related ideas linked at the end of this post.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
WTI-OIL
WTI | A Sell Below $62.00 (Weekly)Last week's bearish candle that printed on WTI has caught my eye.
Firstly, the move higher early on in the week would have caught a lot of bullish trend traders off-guard.
If you switch to the daily timeframe, the picture is even bleaker for the bulls - that pin-bar on weekly looks like a good old fashioned blow off top on the daily.
So where to from here?
For me, I need to see price trading below $62 to initiate a short. If price just eats up last weeks range, drifting higher, that would make me do a full 180 and expect more upside.
Confused much?Oil of course is reacting to world trends. I don't need to cover the emotional roller coaster which is being presented in the world to you - you know what I am talking about.
Of course, this behavior becomes confusion in the charts.
Daily:
Trend: Bull
Consolidation: None
Single Renko Bullish box on 20-Jun
Both RSI and BSI haven't caught up yet to the positive trend yet.
Price Projection on the daily is for 65.15
Weekly:
Trend: VERY WEAK BEAR (Near the 21 and 55 MA but still below)
Consolidation: YES!!!!!!!
There is a four bar consolidation in place. 59.67(R)-50.63(S)
The last price projections before this week were very negative with: 45 and 36.04 as targets.
The weekly shows NO entry signs at this time (plenty on the daily however).
WTI Oil: New mega bull cycle started. $275 by 2025.This study is based on the logarithmic 1M scale since 1990 and investigates a pattern that appears to be repeating itself. The time periods (cycles) are 1990 - 2008 and 2008 - today.
1 through 6 are the minor market phases within this pattern and basically represent the Bear Cycle with the accumulation and recovery phase. The sequence at the end of 6 and the beginning of 1 is basically the Bull Cycle.
Similarities:
** 1-2 and 3-4 are bearish legs during the 1990 - 2008 cycle they both had a roughly -60% decline. Surprisingly on the 2008 - present cycle those same legs declined around -75%. Both legs had the same percentage drop.
** The 1990 - 2008 bear cycle's (phases 1 to 6) duration was a little over 4000 days. The 2008 - present cycle's (phases 1 to 6) duration is a little under 4000 days.
With such similarities it is not odd to technically assume that the pattern will be repeated and complete the final phase which is the bull market (6 - 1).
On the 1990 - 2008 cycle the bull phase (6 - 1) lasted roughly 2400 days. Since the 2008 - present cycle is a marginally shorter, we can expect the upcoming bull cycle to also be slightly shorter, with a rough estimate of 2300 days. This actually places the next top around May 2025.
But what about the actual value, the bull cycle's peak?
Based on the bottom (phase 4) to next peak (phase 5) Fibonacci extension levels, the previous cycle high in 2008 was price just above the 4.764 Fibonacci extension level. Assuming the current cycle will continue to repeat the 1990 - 2008 sequence, we have calculated the bull market peak at $275.00. But since the bearish legs have been stronger on the present cycle we may have a slightly less aggressive peak this time, so to be fair we have a target range of $230.00 - $275.00.
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Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Stall is nearly completeWTI stalled last week, and the prices have caught up with the 8 MA on the daily charts.
Daily chart has consolidation between 50.62(S) - 54.80(R).
Weekly chart has consolidation between 50.63(S) - 59.67(R).
No new price projection triggers have formed.
Still have a range of 48.48 - 36.04 as the zone with a price of ~44.10 for mid zone.
IEA trimmed oil demand for 2019By Andria Pichidi - June 14, 2019
The IEA has cut its 2019 estimate for oil demand in its latest monthly report, blaming trade tensions and the associated consequences on the outlook for global growth. The agency stated that the worsening trade outlook is “a common theme across all regions,” and that “the consequences for oil demand are becoming apparent.”
USOIL prices are presently down 0.3% on the day, at $52.12. Crude prices rallied yesterday following news that two oil tankers had been attacked in the Gulf of Oman, which the US has blamed on Iran. Developments on this front warrant close scrutiny, though for now crude looks to be remaining in the grip of an overall bear trend.
The WTI benchmark (USOIL) prices are down 3.6% w/w and by over 16% from month-ago levels. The IEA stated that US sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan supply, and OPEC-led output quotas, along with disrupted Libyan supply, are only having a limited impact on supply, while surging US supply and increased production from Brazil, Canada and Norway would add to an increase in non-OPEC supply, estimated to be 1.9 mln bpd this year and 2.3 mln bpd in 2020.
Currently in the commodity markets, USOIL is traded at the low $52 area, with lack of direction so far today but also June in general, as it bounces between $50.50-$54 range. Despite the 2-week consolidation within the range, the asset is forming lower highs this week, supporting USOIL weakness. Hence the medium term outlook remains bearish since mid April, while the upcoming week could be key for the future performance of oil, even though fundamentals are bearish as well.
From the technical perspective, MACD is negatively configured well below neutral zone, while RSI has improved slightly but remains trapped in the oversold zone. Therefore USOIL needs to present a sufficient rally (more than $57) for the negative outlook to change.
Yesterday’s high at $54.43 is the immediate Resistance for the asset. However the Key Resistance and Support levels for USOIL are $54.80 and its 2-week low at $50.15 respectively. A break below the latter could open the doors towards 2018 lows, while a break above Resistance could retest the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $56.60 and the round $57.00 level.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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